How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Haiduk]

There are sporadic clashes in Kyiv with diversion groups. Many groups managed to detain without a shooting, but they are mostly locals, Russians as a rule armed and resist. The one policeman was killed today, when tried to chek the documents. 

Total curfew declared from 17-00 Friday until 8-00 Monday. Any, who will be on the street witjout special document will be concider like potential diversant. 

Not far from my house on important road there are two fotified chekpoints established, which controlled by territorial defense troopers and armed volunteers. They are now together with police secure the city inside, when all army, National Guard and even SBU special forces Alfa involved in outer perimetr defense. 

Firing of Pions not far from my house looks like brought results - enemy field ammunition depot in Hostomel are make big boom (on the photo) 

Reportedly SBU Alfa with support of Army mopped up again Hostomel airfield and captured many Chechens.

Russians shelled large building of children clinic almost in the center of Kyiv. Not far from of it a Ground Forces Command building is deployed. I havn't info what kind of weapon was used and direction, just reportedly 1 child was killed, 2 more wounded as well as 2 of clinic personnel

[Aragorn2002]

16 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Yes, I agree.

And to be honest, maybe I would do the same, if I were him.

Empathy is understanding someone's actions/behaviour, without condoning or agreeing.

I would certainly not agree with Putin getting in a state of mind like: "WTF, who the bloody h#ll do those Ukraininians and Nato-f#$kers think they are?? I will show them what I am made off!!", but I can understand that it would be his train of thought.

That is the worrying part..

Indeed. Hoping at first for a quick victory and little damage combined with few casualties, Ukrainians 'are Russians' after all, showing the world it's a rather peaceful takeover, in the style of Czechoslowakia 1968 or Hungary 1956. That plan has failed, so now it has become a matter of prestige and violence, with no regard for damage and casualties. Now we can expect another Chechnya. Total war. And that's why Ukraine needs our full support, not just sanctions, which will take years to have effect, but weapons, ammo, supplies etc. The West has to act.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

 

Maybe a panic attempt? There are no any mass bombing, though already almost 2 hours passed.

[akd]

Flakpanzer Gepard is finally going to war if they can train crews quick enough:

German company KMW offers to deliver 50 Flakpanzer Gepard anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine According to information published by the German newspaper Die Welt on February 25, 2022, German armament group Krauss-Maffei Wegman (KMW) could deliver 50 decommissioned Gepard anti-aircraft (Flakpanzer) tanks to Ukraine – relatively quickly, they say. The German federal government has to decide. But a problem would be the training of the crews, as this defense system is somewhat sophisticated.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_february_2022_global_security_army_industry/german_company_kmw_offers_to_deliver_50_flakpanzer_gepard_anti-aircraft_tanks_to_ukraine.html

[danfrodo]

So I suspect Putin is running the show, doing like Hitler and micro-managing more & more as the mess gets worse.  And he knows there's nasty weapons coming in from Poland so now is going to push down toward Lviv from Belarus to cut the roads?  So are those Belarus or russian forces massing there?  If it's Belarus army, then they are going to get the same sanctions as co-aggressors.  Considering the dictator there just called in Russian troops to save his neck, not sure what choice he has. 

So opens a new front.  And also opens new possibilities of clash w Poles if they stray.  Also opens possibility of outside intervention to protect refugees from that thrust.  My oh my when Putin goes stupid he just don't stop!

[BeondTheGrave]

@The_Capt To your questions about internet:

That assumes, of course, that Starlink actually delivers as promised. Could you imagine the PR value for the platform if it does though? Wow. 

Interesting use of the phrase "Contract" servicemen. Mercenaries? PMCs? Volunteerists? 

Interesting idea about the historic nature of this conflict, and one that cuts both ways. I heard a rumor (no fake news!) that Russian troop movements were being tracked partially through Tinder updates?

2 More IL76s down, though I have seen images of a night time para drop. Will try to find the tweet. 

 

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Indeed. Hoping at first for a quick victory and little damage combined with few casualties, Ukrainians 'are Russians' after all, showing the world it's a rather peaceful takeover, in the style of Czechoslowakia 1968 or Hungary 1956. That plan has failed, so now it has become a matter of prestige and violence, with no regard for damage and casualties. Now we can expect another Chechnya. Total war. And that's why Ukraine needs our full support, not just sanctions, which will take years to have effect, but weapons, ammo, supplies etc. The West has to act.

Aragorn, what would you do at this point?  Folks, it was asked earlier what we would do in Putin's shoes.  So now what to do in NATO's shoes?

Aragorn gets to go first since he brought up more action from west -- go, my friend!  And hopefully the Dutch will be there in force. 

[Seedorf81]

he Haiduk,

I want to thank you for your very up-to-date, and as I see it even under these dire circumstances remarkable impartial, information.

I feel that partly because of that, on this site we are better informed then our national news services are.

It must be weird though, communicating with sometimes judgemental people in safe places, while you are in a spot of bother.

I really hope this crap will end soon and I wish you al the luck possible. 

[danfrodo]

BeondTheGrave: Russian mutiny?  now that would be great if it spreads.  Russian soldiers have their cell phones with them I wonder?

[White2Golf]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Maybe a panic attempt? There are no any mass bombing, though already almost 2 hours passed.

Maybe the Pion fire you heard was a counter-battery mission to disrupt said attack?

Thank you for providing these incredible insights.   Rooting for you, your family and your country.  

[BeondTheGrave]

Just now, danfrodo said:

BeondTheGrave: Russian mutiny?  now that would be great if it spreads.  Russian soldiers have their cell phones with them I wonder?

Rumor is that the Chechen troops have already refused to fight too. Have a hard time squaring all these facts together, I suspect reports on both the Chechen and the mutiny fronts may be exaggerated. The bigger issue is how much of that info is filtering through the Russian rumor mill itself. Five guys in Belgorod who refused to dig a latrine could turn in to five thousand in Crimea if the game of telephone distorts the story enough.  

[Aragorn2002]

10 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Aragorn, what would you do at this point?  Folks, it was asked earlier what we would do in Putin's shoes.  So now what to do in NATO's shoes?

Aragorn gets to go first since he brought up more action from west -- go, my friend!  And hopefully the Dutch will be there in force. 

Send in NATO troops from the west, to free up Ukrainian forces and secure logistics and a stream of weapons. And join the fighting if necessary.

If Ukraine can't come to NATO, NATO will come to Ukraine. Let's see how brave Putin is.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Blazing 88's]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

It would be Fascinating to know what Xi is thinking. I think we can assume he is incandescently angry at Putin for being completely incompetent. I Shudder to think about the readiness inspections, and audits the Chinese military is about to go thru. I suspect that keeping phantom troops on the payroll, and many other forms of military/industrial complex corruption just became a shooting offense, maybe worse than that.

There is an app for that in China!!  No lie.

[akd]

11 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

though I have seen images of a night time para drop. Will try to find the tweet. 

Those were smoke clouds from flak bursts.

Edited February 26, 2022 by akd

[Vet 0369]

17 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said:

Honestly, I am getting really angry at the voices in the US, political voices, speaking in support of Putin and Russia.  It's shameful, anti-democratic and disgusting.  

I dread to think what the people of Ukraine, fighting for their very lives and land now, will think when the see and hear this garbage.

I'm not trying to get into US politics but am just thinking existentially.  Not trying to cross any lines.

I'm extremely happy in the fact that it appears our intelligence services are still top notch and performing remarkably despite all the scorn heaped on them in the recent past.

I suspect that UKR people and leaders are just as intelligent and competent as any. I doubt that they will assume that a loud-mouth braggart has-been speaks for the entire US population, and I am in the same political party as him. We also have a “silent majority” that doesn’t align with either ridiculous extreme. I swore an oath to “preserve and protect the Constitution on a number of occasions, and I, unlike some, take my sworn oath seriously.

 

My apologies to all, and probably do “need a vacation.”

 

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, White2Golf said:

Maybe the Pion fire you heard was a counter-battery mission to disrupt said attack?

Thank you for providing these incredible insights.   Rooting for you, your family and your country.  

No, they fired as far as at the day. This warning was about arial and missile strike. As if Tu-160 and Tu-95 took off and will attack.

Though, Zaporizhzhia city now is under heavy ballistic missile fire, our AD working

 

[BeondTheGrave]

5 minutes ago, akd said:

Those were smoke clouds from flak bursts.

So you know the vid I mean then! Im not crazy! 

Sometimes its so hard to keep all the things I see straight. Surely everyone else feels this way

 

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Send in NATO troops from the west, to free up Ukrainian forces and secure logistics and a stream of weapons. And join the fighting if necessary.

If Ukraine can't come to NATO, NATO will come to Ukraine. Let's see how brave Putin is.

Bold move.  Emotionally I absolutely love it.  Let's see what those russian forces do against that!  Dangerous but would definitely get all the cards out on the table. 

I wonder how ready forces on Polish border are for that?  Maybe if that column comes down toward Lviv they could intervene there at least.

[Battlefront.com]

Chechens apparently had a special unit that was wiped out.  Commander killed along with many others, some captured.

To me this rings true.  As I said, their performance in 2014 was not good.  Lots of Alpha Male Bravado, not much in the way of tactics.  They got slaughtered then and I think they got slaughtered again.  Especially if the Ukrainians had a fix on them.  There's a special disgust for Chechens in Ukraine for a bunch of reasons, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if SBU was tracking them specifically and helped coordinate a welcoming party for them.

About Chechnya and the war there.  The Chechens proved themselves to be extremely good insurgents.  Tough, ruthless, and radicalized.  They were also fighting on their own turf against a long time adversary that was not well trained, poorly motivated, and poorly led.  Toss tough mountain terrain into the mix and you get the perfect mix of stuff for an insurgency.

Since then they have provided fighters to all kinds of Russian "adventures", including the Donbas.  They probably were pretty good at most of the tasks they were given, but the Donbas required them to fight an organized enemy on their home turf.  Not what they are used to.

I think the Chechens are a lot like the Taliban in Afghanistan, Shite militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and ISIS.  They have their own skills, but fighting open battles with a formal military force is not one of them.

Steve

[Phantom Captain]

4 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I suspect that UKR people and leaders are just as intelligent and competent as any. I doubt that they will assume that a loud-mouth braggart has-been speaks for the entire US population, and I am in the same political party as him. We also have a “silent majority” that doesn’t align with either ridiculous extreme. I swore an oath to “preserve and protect the Constitution on a number of occasions, and I, unlike some, take my sworn oath seriously.

 

My apologies to all, and probably do “need a vacation.”

 

I hope not.  It's an awful situation.

@Vet 0369 Much respect to you.  

[Vet 0369]

5 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

So you know the vid I mean then! Im not crazy! 

Sometimes its so hard to keep all the things I see straight. Surely everyone else feels this way

 

No offense to anyone who is risking life and limb to show us all these vids, but I, as “Mark Twain” said, “believe only half of what I see, ano nothing of what I hear!”

[Armorgunner]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ah, not good.  This most likely is for Belarus forces as there's no point in having two identification marks coming from exactly the same area.

That and the equipment looks old and the rocket launcher is rusty, which shows a lack of maintenance.  I doubt this is Russian first line forces.

I think why we haven't seen more O in Ukraine is that this force went over the border and stopped.  Kinda like making a beachead to ensure it was in firm control of both sides of the border.

Steve

Burning Bmp's, trucks, and a Tigr. All with O on them. From the north front, outside Chernihiv NE of Kiev. Evening, the first Day of invasion.

 

[DesertFox]

Thank you Mr. Molotov...

 

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

I thought modern APCs were resistant to molotov cocktails?