How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BeondTheGrave]

Re: Good maps, also check out the Institute for the Study of War. Their conflict maps are quite detailed. They also have brief text based updates trying to make sense of the fighting. I appreciate that they include OOB info as it helps keep things straight. Think they mostly use OSINT like everyone else, but I used to be an avid reader of the Syrian war maps and sometimes I got the feeling they mixed in small doses of CSINT (if you permit the term, C=confidential) passed along to them. Hard to know for sure, naturally not something they are keen to advertise. 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-9

 

[BletchleyGeek]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am double checking this too, however in my case I had a list of things to look for and their importance before the fighting started.  What that means is I'm comparing what is actually happening to what we (myself and someone else, primarily) predicted would happen.  I've done this for Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 and seen how they lined up.  I've also compared each day to the other.  Confirmation bias, in my case, is that what's happening now is pretty much as expected.  If the original conclusions were reasonably correct, then I have a pretty good idea of where this is headed.

Hi Steve! I was wondering how long it would take to smoke you out and have you post here.

What are your thoughts on the equipment of the Russian Armed Forces we have seen so far? Do you think they're hiding the "cutting edge" stuff for yet another "special operation"? Do you think that you guys overestimated the capabilities of Russian industry to produce state-of-the-art equipment (and for the Russian armed forces to integrate it into its units)? There are many opinions out there (and I guess quite a bit of disinformation) that suggest that there's no real strategic echelon for the Russian Federation to support high-intensity combat operations beyond 10 days.

To me, this looks a bit like the move AH did in 1938 on Czechoslovakia, a gamble based on the assumption the other side will fold before having to put the cards on the table... There's some serious research that suggests the Wehrmacht was "lucky" not to have to engage with the Czechoslovak army.

Edited February 27, 2022 by BletchleyGeek

[John Kettler]

Interesting use of the phrase "Contract" servicemen. Mercenaries? PMCs? Volunteerists? 

BeyondTheGrave,

Contract servicemen are military professionals, as opposed to the historic composition of the Red Army being made up chiefly of conscripts on 2-year (believe it's now 1-year) hitches. Contract servicemen sign up for specific periods of service (think US military enlistment contracts), with option to extend, and are the professional and far better paid core of today's Red Army. This development goes back to the massive reforms instituted by Marshal Ogarkov late in the Cold War as he drastically downsized the Red Army in order to be able to afford to field a high tech force with the latest weaponry. Contract servicemen are the real teeth of the Red Army, for they have the skills to operate and maintain sophisticated equipment, the institutional knowledge and cohesion the conscripts can't begin to match. The lack of career NCOs has long been a huge problem for the Russians, and the contract soldier system goes a long way toward fixing that crucial defect. The goal has long been to shift the Russian military to an all-contract force or as close to it as possible.  Contract soldiers are NOT the same as PMCs such as the Wagner Group.

Regards,

John Kettler

[BeondTheGrave]

Just some additional information on the Chechens. People in this thread called it hours ago. 

This is the kind of protest that, If I were Putin, would really scare me. Theres a lot of hate and symbolism in an act like that. 

More good news. As @The_Capt tells me, Soviet, errrm Russian? NVs are quite poor. 

Lot of damage to Ukraine's gas and oil infrastructure also being reported. Even if war were to end soon, how many billions will it take for Russia to rebuild what its destroyed to get the gas flowing back to southern & central Europe? The longer the war goes on, the more Putin grinds the pearl back into sand. 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/26/belarus-constitutional-referendum-vote-russia-nato/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921

If the article doesn't display properly, its about the upcoming constitutional referendum in Belarus. It will almost certainly pass and will let Russia station nuclear weapons on its soil. Wasn't someone in this thread just telling me the war was NATO's fault for wanting to move missile forces into Ukraine? Hey but now since its a both sides issue, must not be that big a deal. 

And more plain clothes sabotage (assassination?) teams on the streets at night.  

[BeondTheGrave]

1 minute ago, John Kettler said:

Interesting use of the phrase "Contract" servicemen. Mercenaries? PMCs? Volunteerists? 

BeyondTheGrave,

Contract servicemen are military professionals, as opposed to the historic composition of the Red Army being made up chiefly of conscripts on 2-year (believe it's now 1-year) hitches. Contract servicemen sign up for specific periods of service (think US military enlistment contracts), with option to extend, and are the professional and far better paid core of today's Red Army. This development goes back to the massive reforms instituted by Marshal Ogarkov late in the Cold War as he drastically downsized the Red Army in order to be able to afford to field a high tech force with the latest weaponry. Contract servicemen are the real teeth of the Red Army, for they have the skills to operate and maintain sophisticated equipment, the institutional knowledge and cohesion the conscripts can't begin to match. The lack of career NCOs has long been a huge problem for the Russians, and the contract soldier system goes a long way toward fixing that crucial defect. The goal has long been to shift the Russian military to an all-contract force or as close to it as possible.  Contract soldiers are NOT the same as PMCs such as the Wagner Group.

Regards,

John Kettler

Cheers for the info, if that info is accurate that seems pretty bad. I mean you'd expect soldiers on contracts to be a 'cut above' the conscripts. 

[Begemot]

22 hours ago, John Kettler said:

So need to charge Putin as war criminal in international court, immediately, based on the indiscriminate shelling of civilian population.

Says Danfrodo.

Indiscriminate shelling of the civilian population is what has been going on against the people in Donbass since 2014 by the Ukrainian military. A lot of Ukrainians would need to be in that docket.

[John Kettler]

DesertFox,

The caption on the Molotov cocktail video is incorrect. Those are not tanks. For sure, the first is a VDV BMD-D, a command vehicle. The other one appears to be another BMD-D, but the degree of obscuration is so high there that it's a likely correct, rather than a certainty. 

All,

Wonder if Bellingcat, OSINTtechnical or similar is tallying the various destroyed or abandoned Russian AFVs, artillery, AD and MT? Believe much could be learned that way.

Regards,

John. Kettler

[akd]

6 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

DesertFox,

The caption on the Molotov cocktail video is incorrect. Those are not tanks. For sure, the first is a VDV BMD-D, a command vehicle. The other one appears to be another BMD-D, but the degree of obscuration is so high there that it's a likely correct, rather than a certainty. 

All,

Wonder if Bellingcat, OSINTtechnical or similar is tallying the various destroyed or abandoned Russian AFVs, artillery, AD and MT? Believe much could be learned that way.

Regards,

John. Kettler

There is no such thing as a BMD-D.  Please stop.  Anyways, as noted these are BTRs from 2014 Maidan protests.

[melm]

7 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

It came as quite a surprise to me Belarus is not independent at all, but a puppet state of Russia. I knew of course it had close relations with Moscow, but not that close. So we can safely assume Putin was behind the stream of refugees from the Middle East that flooded the Polish border some months ago. 

Perhaps you missed Belarus massive demonstration in 2020, that Lukashenko was asked to step down. West of course supports the demonstrators. This is the turning point for Belarus to go east, instead of staying neutral.

[John Kettler]

The discussion of potential Russian tactical nuke use missed an important point, I feel. Their mere presence on the battlefield creates the possibility for any number of RADHAZ scenarios, ranging from minor local event to something with international impact, with the cause ranging from vehicle accident, to incidental but not targeted directly (Grad lands on road and hits one in a convoy as a result), to directly targeted by SO, missile strike, etc. What if they're in an ammo depot which is hit and explodes, wiping out who knows how many warheads and throwing all sorts of radioactivity skyward? We've already got a RADHAZ situation from the fighting in Chernobyl (in an exclusion zone the size of Luxembourg, mind)  where the artillery, mortar and rocket fire have thrown who knows how much radioactive dust into the air. With nukes on the battlefield, something a 2S4 Tyulpan self-propelled mortar can deliver, this isn't a theoretical discussion, especially since the 2S4 was first seen in Ukraine by the OSCE (2015) in the Donbas. Would also like to point out the distinct possibility the Russian tanks and maybe IFVs have DU KE ammunition in them. The Red Army adopted DU in 1989. As we know from Iraq and Kosovo, DU munitions are highly effective RADHAZ generators when used.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S4_Tyulpan

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

You know you've really riled the locals when an octogenarian volunteers to fight you! 

Ukraine Updates

 

@Westandwith2

An 80-year-old showed up to join the Ukrainian army, carrying with him a small case with 2 t-shirts, a pair of extra pants, a toothbrush and a few sandwiches for lunch. He said he was doing it for his grandkids.

#Ukraine

Regards,

John Kettler

[chuckdyke]

Chernobyl is in the Ukraine if Russia is considering tactical nukes, they may be thinking about all the stuff near Pripyat. Enough to make a so-called dirty bomb or bombs. Half their army going home with radiation sickness is not a good look.

[John Kettler]

38 minutes ago, akd said:

There is no such thing as a BMD-D.  Please stop.  Anyways, as noted these are BTRs from 2014 Maidan protests.

akd,

That's what we called it back in the day. Sorry! Did some research after the  post and learned of the new nomenclature. Came here to fix my mistake. Had I known, would've written BTR-D, the correct nomenclature for the BMD APC variant which carries a squad of 12 plus a driver. At least, that's what it looks like to me, based on what I can see of its shape.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Armorgunner]

1 hour ago, Begemot said:

 

Indiscriminate shelling of the civilian population is what has been going on against the people in Donbass since 2014 by the Ukrainian military. A lot of Ukrainians would need to be in that docket.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Battlefront.com]

Quick comment about the previous discussion about what Ukraine might give up to get a peace deal and end the war.  At this point, they don't have to give up anything.  If the war keeps going the way it is, Russia will have to withdraw all of its forces or face annihilation.  Why would any nation suffer an unprovoked attack, win, and then give up something to the loser?  Makes no sense to me.

It's kinda like the pre-war sanctions argument.  If sanctions were put into place before the war, they have no deterrent effect worth mentioning.  Putin had a chance to get some concessions from Ukraine if he played things very differently because he could have put Ukraine into a very difficult position without risking everything (until Wed this is what I thought Putin would do).  So now Putin has lost the ability to pressure because he's already done the maximum and it's not working.

Steve

[John Kettler]

5 hours ago, db_zero said:

Don't know if this has already be mentioned, but looks like the hacker group anonymous has hacked into Russian TV and is broadcasting the truth about what is going on.

 

Besides Molotovs, remember when large sheets were used to blind vehicles crews?

db_zero,

The muj in Afghanistan used dung. for that same purpose. During WW II, the Germans used tarps.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Battlefront.com]

OK, so back to the O vehicle marking.  Those knocked out T-72s are consistent with the other marked vehicles.  They came from Belarus like the others did.  So why have Vs and Os within the same force?  And why so few Os?  Some possibilites:

1.  V is the force tasked with taking Kiev from the western side, O from the east.  This would have made V, O, and Z in that order.  But last minute force shuffling switched some forces and they didn't have time to repaint symbols, which put some Os and Vs together.

2.  Os belong to a particular sub group within the larger Belarus based force. Not sure what that might be, just something "special".

3.  The O was used by some unit during the joint exercise and wasn't changed.  However, I could find no pictures from the exercise to back this up.

4.  The O is for Belarus units.  At first I dismissed this because there was a knocked out Tigr with the symbol.  However, I found exercise pictures with at least one Belarus Tigr.  So maybe they recently received some?

I really don't know what the answer is, but I suspect #4 now that I've seen a Belarus Tigr.  It makes the most sense.  It also has the most importance because this means Belarus is already on the Ukrainian side of the border and fighting.  Which does make sense because by hosting Russian forces they are at war with Ukraine.

Steve

[John Kettler]

ELINT News Retweeted

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

tom

 

@tom_bullock_

·

4h

 

Ukrainian forces with NLAWs on the Kharkiv front


Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

An Italian named Maru tweeted this meme he made.



Regards,

John Kettler

[Battlefront.com]

Looks like newly raised volunteers.  Standard issue uniforms are likely in short supply so they are doing what they did in 2014... wear anything they can get their hands on.  Commercial or European military surplus.

Steve

[borg]

4 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

ELINT News Retweeted

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

tom

 

@tom_bullock_

·

4h

 

Ukrainian forces with NLAWs on the Kharkiv front


Regards,

John Kettler

I fought the N Law, and the N Law won !!

[John Kettler]

Steve,

Here's UK MoD's official UNCLASSIFIED INTSUM for today, February 26, 2022.



In other news, if your business sign says "We repair battle-damaged Su-25s", here's your new customer! Thread has video showing Su-25 took a MANPADS hit parallel to the cockpit but about halfway down the wing and has geo-location of incident. Aircraft was hit but not downed--at least in any view from the scene.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited February 27, 2022 by John Kettler

[Zveroboy1]

There is this page about Russian vehicle markings but it is a few days old.

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/vehicle-marking-of-russian-forces-near-the-border/

It claims vehicles with O symbols were spotted near Belgorod. No really conclusive evidence though.

[John Kettler]

Meanwhile, we have another meme, based on the ever popular Keep calm instruction.



Please note the katana on the table in the video. Also, are those weapon cases of fuel bladders to fill the Molotov cocktails?

Regards,

John Kettler

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, melm said:

Perhaps you missed Belarus massive demonstration in 2020, that Lukashenko was asked to step down. West of course supports the demonstrators. This is the turning point for Belarus to go east, instead of staying neutral.

Lukashenko's life expectancy is the same as Putin's, plus about ten seconds. That is only if he is lucky. If he isn't Putin will trow him to the wolves in attempt to save himself. either way way I see a lamppost in his future, and a rope.