Israel War Thread

[Seedorf81]

After the defeat of ISIS not every ISIS-fighter or ISIS-leader was dead or caught, of course.

Now I wonder if Hamas gave a bunch of them shelter, learned their tactics, and planned to use them as murderous cannonfodder all along.

Edited October 12, 2023 by Seedorf81

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Well, if US intelligence says so.

No doubt they will be reading up on the Nizari Ismailis. These guys were professional assholes specialty infiltration.

[Aragorn2002]

24 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

No doubt they will be reading up on the Nizari Ismailis. These guys were professional assholes specialty infiltration.

It's complete rubbish. Of course the Iranians knew. US and Israeli intelligence are just lying the stars from heaven, so they can explain to the dumb masses why they don't military respond towards Iran for the moment.

Biden has enough problems as it is and Netanyahu first wants to eliminate Hammas with a devastating ground offensive. 

First things first. 

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

First things first. 

You will have two million refugees. Gaza is infiltrated probably since the Camp David agreement. Egypt didn't want the area for good reason. I can't see how it will be tolerated any longer a new generation of fanatics will be raised there.

[dan/california]

I simply don't see how the Northern front doesn't kick off. My prediction is that the IDF is about assault Gaza like its hair is on fire, so that the mechanized forces currently deploying there can shift North ASAP.

[Carolus]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

My prediction is that the IDF is about assault Gaza like its hair is on fire, so that the mechanized forces currently deploying there can shift North ASAP.

To guard the border? Or do you think there will be an Israeli ground offensive against Lebanon or Syria to push local militants out of mortar range?

Israel has been conducting hush-hush airstrikes outside its border several times and I don't think they will be interested in a multi-front ground war since they are about to move into an Urban area with the pop density of downtown Tokyo.

Total air superiority accounts for a lot.

[Carolus]

 

It seems Hamas really wanted to make absolutely sure no international organisation will comment a single word while the IDF elbow drops on Gaza.

[dan/california]

41 minutes ago, Carolus said:

To guard the border? Or do you think there will be an Israeli ground offensive against Lebanon or Syria to push local militants out of mortar range?

Israel has been conducting hush-hush airstrikes outside its border several times and I don't think they will be interested in a multi-front ground war since they are about to move into an Urban area with the pop density of downtown Tokyo.

Total air superiority accounts for a lot.

The faster they smash their way through Gaza the shorter their vulnerability period to full bore attack in the North. They don't want to fight Hezbollah if they don't have to, but if they do they would really like to be queed up and ready when that second balloon drops.

[Astrophel]

6 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

You will have two million refugees. Gaza is infiltrated probably since the Camp David agreement. Egypt didn't want the area for good reason. I can't see how it will be tolerated any longer a new generation of fanatics will be raised there.

The population of Gaza by concensus is somewhere around 2.3 million.  In 2017 it was by consensus somewhere around 1.7 million.  Some of the growth comes from a higher than average birth rate, as happens with stressed populations everywhere, the rest is coming from forced migration = ethnic cleansing = refugees. 

It is not permitted in most forums to address this reality.  The wish to protect Israel is strong.

That the population is growing in one of the least desirable places to live on this earth should set a question mark in every enquiring mind.  Gaza is only 88 square miles and yet it now contains 2.3 million people - this is four times the density of Los Angeles.  Half of the population is under 18.  According to the UN, half of the population is "food insecure".  Is this really the environment where rational minds can advocate a complete embargo?  Never mind the bombing day and night.

From my comfortable chair, what is happening in Gaza looks like something only the russians could have constructed.  I hope Blinken sleeps well tonight - he is a crucial person on the cusp of history. - and wakes somewhat wiser.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Carolus said:

 

It seems Hamas really wanted to make absolutely sure no international organisation will comment a single word while the IDF elbow drops on Gaza.

Going to be more like an anvil actually...

 

[dan/california]

32 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

The population of Gaza by concensus is somewhere around 2.3 million.  In 2017 it was by consensus somewhere around 1.7 million.  Some of the growth comes from a higher than average birth rate, as happens with stressed populations everywhere, the rest is coming from forced migration = ethnic cleansing = refugees. 

It is not permitted in most forums to address this reality.  The wish to protect Israel is strong.

That the population is growing in one of the least desirable places to live on this earth should set a question mark in every enquiring mind.  Gaza is only 88 square miles and yet it now contains 2.3 million people - this is four times the density of Los Angeles.  Half of the population is under 18.  According to the UN, half of the population is "food insecure".  Is this really the environment where rational minds can advocate a complete embargo?  Never mind the bombing day and night.

From my comfortable chair, what is happening in Gaza looks like something only the russians could have constructed.  I hope Blinken sleeps well tonight - he is a crucial person on the cusp of history. - and wakes somewhat wiser.

The problem with Gaza is that it was allowed to exist. And their is a strong parallel with the L/DPR actually, they were both at best semi governed spaces where the worst people on earth were allowed free reign. This happened because some of the people who should have known better found it convenient, and a lot more of them were just lazy and hoped to keep kicking the can down the road.  I don't know what the plan will be for Gaza going forward, but the old plan is dead and buried.

Edited October 12, 2023 by dan/california

[Lethaface]

20 hours ago, warrenpeace said:

Bulletpoint,

You are absolutely correct about the Germany welcoming German refugees situation, but my point is the Arab nations of the Middle East never did the same with Arabs from Palestine.  The Arabs that lived in Palestine were as much Arabs as East Prussians were German. Remember that Palestine, Syria, Jordan, and Iraq were all essentially National creations after WW1.  Boarders were kind of made up by the British.  There was no real national identity for any of these places.   Instead of welcoming and resettling the refugees, they used them as political pawns.

From 1948-1967 Gaza was under Egyption control.  Israel wanted to give it back to them as part of the Camp David Accords, but Egypt said no.  Egypt definitely does not want 2 million Gazans.  That is why I think the only real solution is to eliminate Hamas  and then invest a ****load of cash into the strip to create economic prosperity.  

Arabs aren't a country though. Another rather significant distinction is that Germany was responsible for WW2 and the people driven out of those area's were a direct consequence of the war and Germany's behavior. People from the Palestinian area didn't start a massive war nor commit a holocaust; so it's harder to swallow they were driven out of their homes, like for what reason? 

I'm not fully sure if there was not a 'national identity' like you say, but people sure did have a bond with their houses / ground / place where they lived. It's not that people weren't bonded to their town/city/region before the invention of nation states.

I agree though that the regimes (dictatorships) of the Arab states in fact don't really care much for the Palestinians. They are indeed used as political pawns, although I think the Palestinians themselves also don't want to accept that they have lost their home turf forever. They call it the 'Nakba' (disaster) for a reason.
At the same time the people living in those Arab states certainly care about m, so that's why those regimes have to keep up appearances once in a while.

Ultimately yes Israel is directly responsible for the Gaza situation as they have created it (and are slowly annexing all remaining 'Palestinian' land).

Edited October 12, 2023 by Lethaface

[Lethaface]

19 hours ago, dan/california said:

The question is do they have a choice?

 

They might want to have real serious discussion about exactly what the mission of troops is now instead of later.

I guess those are part of the UNIFIL mission. I have a good connection with someone in the Malaysian Airforce also deployed to Lebanon as part of UNIFIL. 

Their mission is de-escalation, obviously ;-). 

[Lethaface]

15 hours ago, paxromana said:

Indeed it is.

However, blockading a besieged place in time of war is not 'collective punishment' ... 

And any civilian casualties which result are the legal responsibility of the besieged force ... Hamas in this case ... not of the besieger.

Once the Israelis take control if, for example, they decided to blow up the Power Plant, that would be collective punishemnt ... what;s going on now is entirely at the foot of the Hamas fanatics.

This is not correct. If Israel keeps blockading water, food, medicine and fuel for the civilian populace that's considered a warcrime. (Indiscriminately) bombing cities and buildings with massive civilian casualties is too.

I fear that is exactly what will happen, which will sow another generation of extremist Hamas/whatever fighters so in a dozen years orso the whole movie will repeat.
Not that I think Hamas's actions are productive in any way shape or form. They are rather barbaric in their actions. 

The question is, what is the outlook of the average young Palestinian growing up in Gaza? Is it surprising they (or at least a good number of m) turn into radical extremist terrorists? Personally I don't think it is surprising. 

Someone I know once said, during one of the previous similar fubar situations there, that a neutron bomb on the whole region might be the only solution for the problem. I didn't agree then, nor do I think it is a healthy idea now, but I'm starting to understand the reasons for his idea / solution more and more. 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Lethaface

[Lethaface]

And just a reminder for everyone, how do we think about Russia levelling a building complex full of people in which there might be some Ukrainian soldiers? Or Russia attacking the power supply / heating of Ukraine?

If it comes to the rules of war, there shouldn't be differences between how we apply them to various actors in different wars.

Edited October 12, 2023 by Lethaface

[Bulletpoint]

11 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Someone I know once said, during one of the previous similar fubar situations there, that a neutron bomb on the whole region might be the only solution for the problem. I didn't agree then, nor do I think it is a healthy idea now, but I'm starting to understand the reasons for his idea / solution more and more. 

Or an asteroid, because then the survivors might conclude that it was the will of god that the conflict should end.

But hopefully it will never come to that.

[Lethaface]

Just now, Bulletpoint said:

Or an asteroid, because then the survivors might conclude that it was the will of god that the conflict should end.

But hopefully it will never come to that.

A divine intervention is probably what's needed to solve this conflict indeed. At least you made me laugh about this rather sobering subject. 

In the Ukr/Rus war it is rather clear who are the good guys, somehow that makes it easier for me to follow it closely.

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

And just a reminder for everyone, how do we think about Russia levelling a building complex full of people in which there might be some Ukrainian soldiers? Or Russia attacking the power supply / heating of Ukraine?

If it comes to the rules of war, there shouldn't be differences between how we apply them to various actors in different wars.

The thing that makes EVERYTHING, Russia does in Ukraine a criminal act is the utterly unprovoked, and illegal nature of the war itself. You can argue a great deal about who did the first bad/provocative thing in the middle east, but there is zero doubt who did the last one. And it was so bad they just don't get to run Gaza anymore, period.

[Lethaface]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The thing that makes EVERYTHING, Russia does in Ukraine a criminal act is the utterly unprovoked, and illegal nature of the war itself. You can argue a great deal about who did the first bad/provocative thing in the middle east, but there is zero doubt who did the last one. And it was so bad they just don't get to run Gaza anymore, period.

Oh I agree that it would be good if Hamas leadership and ideology is surgically removed from this plane of existence. 
But that doesn't mean the laws of war should be applied selectively.

Edited October 12, 2023 by Lethaface

[Bulletpoint]

I'm against illegal occupation and killing civilians no matter who does it.

[Letter from Prague]

10 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Or an asteroid, because then the survivors might conclude that it was the will of god that the conflict should end.

But hopefully it will never come to that.

The suggestion I heard was that the Pope should declare a Crusade and all current inhabitants should be kicked off from the Holy Land because they can't behave and as such don't deserve it.

They could still visit it on the weekends.

Opposing weekends.

 

Joking aside, I do agree that it is jarring to see the people who were horrified when Russia went to blow up apartment buildings full of people now cheer when Israel does the same.

And people are very passionate about it. I've seen friends group split because of it already.

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, Letter from Prague said:

The suggestion I heard was that the Pope should declare a Crusade

With all the crazy things that have happened in the last couple of years, I would almost not be surprised.

[Vanir Ausf B]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

I simply don't see how the Northern front doesn't kick off. My prediction is that the IDF is about assault Gaza like its hair is on fire, so that the mechanized forces currently deploying there can shift North ASAP.

To be fair, this is nothing new. Israel has been committing "acts of war" against Syria for years now. From the linked article:

Israel has for years carried out strikes against what it has described as Iran-linked targets in Syria, including against the Aleppo and Damascus airports.

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

To be fair, this is nothing new. Israel has been committing "acts of war" against Syria for years now. From the linked article:

Israel has for years carried out strikes against what it has described as Iran-linked targets in Syria, including against the Aleppo and Damascus airports.

Yes. The link says "It speaks volumes about the Israeli threat assessments of Iranian proxy forces in Lebanon and Syria that they were willing to take this risk."

But really it speaks more about the Israeli threat assesment of Syria as a nation state. They can bomb them with near impunity as they have done before.

[warrenpeace]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

Arabs aren't a country though. Another rather significant distinction is that Germany was responsible for WW2 and the people driven out of those area's were a direct consequence of the war and Germany's behavior. People from the Palestinian area didn't start a massive war nor commit a holocaust; so it's harder to swallow they were driven out of their homes, like for what reason? 

I'm not fully sure if there was not a 'national identity' like you say, but people sure did have a bond with their houses / ground / place where they lived. It's not that people weren't bonded to their town/city/region before the invention of nation states.

I agree though that the regimes (dictatorships) of the Arab states in fact don't really care much for the Palestinians. They are indeed used as political pawns, although I think the Palestinians themselves also don't want to accept that they have lost their home turf forever. They call it the 'Nakba' (disaster) for a reason.
At the same time the people living in those Arab states certainly care about m, so that's why those regimes have to keep up appearances once in a while.

Ultimately yes Israel is directly responsible for the Gaza situation as they have created it (and are slowly annexing all remaining 'Palestinian' land).

"People driven out of those area's were a direct consequence of the war and Germany's behavior".    One might argue the same thing happened in Palestine.  The Jews accepted the UN resolution, the Arabs did not.

"The United Nations resolution sparked conflict between Jewish and Arab groups within Palestine. Fighting began with attacks by irregular bands of Palestinian Arabs attached to local units of the Arab Liberation Army composed of volunteers from Palestine and neighboring Arab countries. These groups launched their attacks against Jewish cities, settlements, and armed forces. The Jewish forces were composed of the Haganah, the underground militia of the Jewish community in Palestine, and two small irregular groups, the Irgun, and LEHI. The goal of the Arabs was initially to block the Partition Resolution and to prevent the establishment of the Jewish state. The Jews, on the other hand, hoped to gain control over the territory allotted to them under the Partition Plan.

After Israel declared its independence on May 14, 1948, the fighting intensified with other Arab forces joining the Palestinian Arabs in attacking territory in the former Palestinian mandate. On the eve of May 14, the Arabs launched an air attack on Tel Aviv, which the Israelis resisted. This action was followed by the invasion of the former Palestinian mandate by Arab armies from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Egypt. Saudi Arabia sent a formation that fought under the Egyptian command. British trained forces from Transjordan eventually intervened in the conflict, but only in areas that had been designated as part of the Arab state under the United Nations Partition Plan and the corpus separatum of Jerusalem. After tense early fighting, Israeli forces, now under joint command, were able to gain the offensive."