Israel War Thread

[Butschi]

3 hours ago, Astrophel said:

This whole thing is so ill-conceived it might have been dreamed up in Moscow.

Huh? Ill-conceived? Correct me if I'm wrong but for me this looks fairly good for Hamas...

1. In the newspapers I read today, Israel has almost completely replaced Ukraine.

2. Hamas has shown that Israel, with one of the most modern militaries is still vulnerable. To dudes on motorbikes, no less.

3. Israel is going to retaliate massively. Netanjahu has to. That means a lot of destroyed livelihoods. -> Next generation of Hamas fighters.

4. This is likely to strengthen Netanjahu in some way (doesn't have to, but it is rarely the levelheaded people who are called for in such a situation). He is already not everyone's darling in the West.

5. With the situation in Ukraine, Taiwan on the horizon and nasty pictures from Gaza soon to arrive on our screens, the West is likely to put pressure on Israel because it can't afford the distraction. Escalation or compromising will both hurt Israel's government.

Hamas can't win in a direct military confrontation (for long). But they don't have to. Terror organization or guerilla (which is a matter of perspective more often then not), they just need to survive and give a good show for their audience every now and then.

 

[TheVulture]

14 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Huh? Ill-conceived? Correct me if I'm wrong but for me this looks fairly good for Hamas...

Hamas can't win in a direct military confrontation (for long). But they don't have to. Terror organization or guerilla (which is a matter of perspective more often then not), they just need to survive and give a good show for their audience every now and then.

 

Exactly this.  Hamas isn't trying to capture and hold territory to expand Gaza. They are looking for political aims:

* energise public support for the Palestinians amongst the Arab world public, to undermine those leaders (e.g. Saudi Arabia) who are quietly normalising relations with Israel

* provoke an over the top response from Israel, for the same reasons

* act in conjuction with Iran, with Iranian military aid,  to help Iran's attempts to position itself with the public as the only significant opposition to Israel and the West

* possibly also consolidate Fatah's position in domestic Palestinian politics: historically, the PLO, Fatah and Hamas have spent as much time fighting each other to be the leaders of the Palestinian resistance, as they have opposing Israel.

[Astrophel]

Hey Buutschi,

You throw down a gauntlet and I will pick it up briefly:

This "attack" seems to have been conceived by headless propagandists intent on feeding a never ending diet of whataboutery.  I say headless because there is no way Hamas can win militarily and the reaction from Israel is entirely predictable.  The result, militarily, is entirely predictable. Whoever is behind this insane assault lives on Planet X and not in the real world.  Who does that remind you of?  Putin is what!

To address your points:

1. Hamas, not Israel, has taken the headlines today and so what?  Yesterday it was Taylor Swift and her football hunk.

2. The Dudes on Motorcycles/Hang-gliders are likely dead by now and at most created a photo opportunity to be remembered by.

3. You are right.  The next generation of Hamas fighters are being obliterated as I type, much the same as the russian elite assault forces were decimated by Ukraine in the first weeks of the russian invasion.  Remind you of anybody given to misjudgement?  Putin perhaps ...

4. Netanyahu is leading the most right wing Israeli government ever.  He has been building bridges with the autocrat in Saudi Arabia and is doubtless annoying USA by supporting russian drone developments and failing to put his fragile weight behind Ukraine.  Who stands to benefit from driving wedges deeper into western constituencies?  No prizes for guessing Putin.

5. Let us not confuse media/propaganda coverage with military realities.  Someone in Hamas clearly has.  So far the West is dealing with the Ukraine-Russia existential war (existential for Ukraine and since recently for Russia) without breaking sweat.

The impact on the West is something I am still trying to assess.  It looks like another assault on Joe Biden - at least this was my first reaction - and a distraction from the latest russian barbarity in Ukraine.  However, it has been clearly planned to coincide with various anniversaries and presumably hang gliders needed some months of preparation.  Main question we should be asking ourselves is what comes next?  Hamas is being played by somebody and for what - a villa or two in switzerland would be my guess.

Edited October 8, 2023 by Astrophel

[Butschi]

30 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

You throw down a gauntlet

No need to feel attacked by me replying to your post.

30 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

there is no way Hamas can win militarily and the reaction from Israel is entirely predictable.

Exactly what I said. I draw different conclusions from that, though.

30 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

Who does that remind you of?  Putin is what!

No, Putin actually thought he can win militarily. He probably still does. I doubt the Hamas leaders do. (No way for me to prove that, though) This is not about winning militarily. They can't. It is about getting attention and making Israel look bad.

30 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

1. Hamas, not Israel, has taken the headlines today and so what?  Yesterday it was Taylor Swift and her football hunk.

Israel in a geographical sense. And I've never seen Taylor Swift be the topic of each and every of the first 10 headlines. See above, this is about attention. That is the currency from which such an organization lives. Terror or guerilla organizations rarely win by direct military conflict. They hope to rattle the people into rising up, cause international intervention, something like that.

30 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

The Dudes on Motorcycles/Hang-gliders are likely dead by now and at most created a photo opportunity to be remembered by.

So what? They were prepared for that. They are in paradise now, surround by 72 virgins. But they showed that with their death they can hurt Israel. That's a powerful motivation in that region.

30 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

The next generation of Hamas fighters are being obliterated as I type

No, that is the current generation. The next generation will be the sons and brothers of people killed by Israel's retaliation or those who had to watch while their homes were demolished.

30 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

Who stands to benefit from driving wedges deeper into western constituencies?  No prizes for guessing Putin.

Not everything that happens in the world that is beneficial for Russia is orchestrated by Russia (although I'm sure Putin wants us to think just that). Hamas benefits a lot by actually strengthening a hardliner as head of Israel's government. A Palestine-friendly government would maybe strengthen Fatah but would weaken Hamas. But someone who drives people into the arms of Hamas and is someone who brings up the West against Israel? Brilliant!

Edited October 8, 2023 by Butschi

[SteelRain]

I'm a bit puzzled by the scale of the attack and can't believe that in this day and age preparations for such action were not noticed by Israels intelligence services.

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, SteelRain said:

I'm a bit puzzled by the scale of the attack and can't believe that in this day and age preparations for such action were not noticed by Israels intelligence services.

In a German newspaper I read something about Israel's Pearl Harbour. That is an interesting parallel because now we can have the same (conspiracy) theories about the government actually knowing about it in advance but doing nothing because they profited from it.

Edited October 8, 2023 by Butschi

[Letter from Prague]

The hypothesis I heard is that the inteligence failure is because Netanyahu in his quest to become dictator replaced a lot of competent people in various agencies with loyal people. Might be just a spin to throw it on him, but this is truly historic failure. Especially since it happened on anniversary of when it happened last time.

[SteelRain]

27 minutes ago, Butschi said:

In a German newspaper I read something about Israel's Pearl Harbour. That is an interesting parallel because now we can have the same (conspiracy) theories about the government actually knowing about it in advance but doing nothing because they profited from it.

I think the overwhelming majority participating in this discussion is not interested in superficial bull**** like the Stab-in-the-back myth. Lets focus on facts backed by evidence instead.

Edited October 8, 2023 by SteelRain

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

The hypothesis I heard is that the inteligence failure is because Netanyahu in his quest to become dictator replaced a lot of competent people in various agencies with loyal people. Might be just a spin to throw it on him, but this is truly historic failure. Especially since it happened on anniversary of when it happened last time.

Don't forget there was a lot of dissent by certain members of the armed forces and intelligence agencies against the politics of Netanyahu's coalition. In that context, I can see a lot of turnover and desire by Netanyahu to replace those opposing him.

Former leaders of Israel’s security services are speaking out against Netanyahu’s policies
https://apnews.com/article/israel-netanyahu-mossad-military-protests-cb8742ba0b0f210953669824568eab1e

Turmoil over Netanyahu's judicial overhaul reaches into Israel's cherished military
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/netanyahu-judicial-overhaul-military-reservists-protests-idf-rcna96197

Israel's Netanyahu cools censure of protesting reservists as judicial crisis simmers
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-netanyahu-cools-censure-protesting-reservists-judicial-crisis-simmers-2023-08-14/

I'm not going to venture into the the reasons for the political divisions in Israel.  But I can see the effects of this "political civil war" not being good for the functioning of the country's intelligence gathering and military preparedness.

[chris talpas]

Given the level of casualties inflicted on Israel, do the hostages become less of a bargaining chip for Hamas?  While I’m sure Israel wants their safe return, I imagine the government will not feel as constrained in its responses given all the other lives lost.

 

[Billy Ringo]

16 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

I'm not going to venture into the the reasons for the political divisions in Israel.  But I can see the effects of this "political civil war" not being good for the functioning of the country's intelligence gathering and military preparedness.

Or, it might put all the bickering and infighting on the backburner and bring the Israelis together to protect the homeland and crush external enemies.  This isn't going to end well for Hamas.

Edited October 8, 2023 by Billy Ringo
clarification

[chris talpas]

Has Hamas also prepared defences for an Israeli occupation of Gaza?  Is the best approach (not for the civilians) lay siege by continuing with the cutoff of electricity, fuel, and supplies, and pummeling them from the air for a while to wear them down before beginning the ground operation?

Edited October 8, 2023 by chris talpas

[MOS:96B2P]

3 hours ago, Astrophel said:

Hamas is being played by somebody and for what - a villa or two in switzerland would be my guess.

Hamas is a tool of Iran as is Hezbollah.  Maybe Hezbollah will join the war next and open a new front.   Iran's stated goal is the destruction of Israel.  

[danfrodo]

In the end, Israel will have more land, which they will take without much notice from the outside world.  They will have more power over the palestinians.  They will have some weeks of the ability to engage in whatever violence they want without much question.  Netanyahu will blame someone.  Frightened Israelis will become increasingly right wing, as usually happens with fear response.  So enjoy the violence binge, Hamas, and enjoy the hangover.

Since the 90s, when the great disaster happened (Rabin assassinated by Israeli zealot), I have believed that the only weapon the palestinians could use to win was world opinion.  Militarily they are ants fighting a very large anteater.  So non-violence was what I thought would work best.  Use mass protest -- thousands laying down in from of Israeli bulldozers, hunger strikes, anything that gets on the world's news programs and generates sympathy.  That was the only way to win.  But instead the violent zealots did their idiotic pinprick attacks, year after year, accomplishing nothing except leaving their people w less and less territory and less and less sovereignty, while generating sympathy for Israel and hardening the hearts of nearly all Israelis. 

And now this utterly brilliant move.  At a time when the world sees Israeli democracy on the edge and world opinion of Israeli govt was lowering. 

[danfrodo]

4 hours ago, SteelRain said:

I'm a bit puzzled by the scale of the attack and can't believe that in this day and age preparations for such action were not noticed by Israels intelligence services.

So are you thinking that perhaps Netanyahu will actually get some of the blame?  I was thinking that he'll pass the blame on to others, successfully, but maybe it goes the other direction.  As was stated in a post above, perhaps the claim that Netanyahu was so busy playing politics & cronyism that he left the country vulnerable.  I can't stand Netanyahu so I would enjoy watching that.

Edited October 8, 2023 by danfrodo

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, MOS:96B2P said:

Hamas is a tool of Iran as is Hezbollah.  Maybe Hezbollah will join the war next and open a new front.   Iran's stated goal is the destruction of Israel.  

Hezbollah published a video of themselves mortaring Israel.

[dan/california]

15 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

ISW has an Iran update today focusing on the attack from Gaza:

Iran Update Special Edition, October 7, 2023
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-october-7-2023

 

 

This is the real question. Is this just an unfortunately successful spasm of suicidal violence by Hamas, or the start of a much wider war that pulls in players from Turkey, To Egypt To Azerbaijan? We may REALLY regret the last eighteen months of screwing around when we should have been ramping up the production of pretty much every kind of ammo there is like we meant it.

Edited October 8, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

A long thread that lays out the position of the British Labor Party on the Israel/Hamas War, and the thrust of their foreign policy generally. Given that Labor seems nearly certain to win the next British election this matters. On the whole I would say they have laid out about as forceful, and positive policy framework as could be hoped for from a Labor government.  Short version, The rules based order is the foundation of prosperity, and it is worth fighting for. I think this is positive for Ukraine, and not overly conciliatory towards the Palestinians, which was not a given from the British labor party.

 

Edited October 8, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/hamas-militants-take-israeli-civilians-hostage-prompting-desperate-outcry-from-families/

 

250+ Bodies Found at Israel Music Festival Slaughter: Report

 

Edit: not displaying right: 250 murdered at the music festival, plus hostages.

Hamas is trying to outdo the Russian Army. I simply can't imagine how Israel is going to respond to this.

Edit: How does this NOT lead to a general mideast war?

Edit: AMMO PLANTS, we need to build more ammo plants

Edited October 8, 2023 by dan/california

[TheVulture]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Edit: How does this NOT lead to a general mideast war?

Between who? And why?

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Between who? And why?

Israel, vs Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, is the short list. I can easily envision a much longer one.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Between who? And why?

Azerbaijan owes Israel a rather large debt as well. 

[dan/california]

Some more thoughts about how this music festival slaughter is going to take the brakes completely off the Israeli response. Elite liberal Israelis are the people who might have attempted some level of restraint in the war against Gaza. It was these peoples children who were slaughtered, literally while they were just getting stoned and having a good time. 

Edit: And many of them were taken hostage.

Edited October 8, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4243388-saudi-arabia-qatar-iran-blame-israel-hamas-attacks/

While leaders in the U.S. and Europe quickly denounced the attack and gave support for Israel, the three Middle Eastern nations criticized the country over its treatment of Palestinians.

“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is closely following the developments of the unprecedented situation between a number of Palestinian factions and the Israeli occupation forces, which has resulted in a high level of violence on several fronts there,” the country’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

“The Kingdom recalls its repeated warnings of the dangers of the explosion of the situation as a result of the continued occupation, and deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and the repetition of systematic provocations against its sanctities,” the statement continues.

 

 

 

Quote

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/08/6-things-national-security-israel-hamas-conflict-00120544

But China’s reaction to the latest violence may temporarily sour Israelis on Beijing’s advances.

In a statement Sunday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Israel and Palestine — it used that term instead of Hamas or Palestinians — should “remain calm, exercise restraint and immediately end the hostilities to protect civilians and avoid further deterioration of the situation.” It went on to call for a two-state solution.

 

Okay, what I am about to say is speculative, i won't be offended if you tell me I am wrong or worse. 

What are the odds the Saudi's have decide to take whatever security guarantee the Chinese are offering instead of the one they have been negotiating with the U.S.? What if the Iranians planned this as a prelude to doing a nuclear test? They could pronounce Gaza to be under their Umbrella/Protection.

Further out on  a limb...

What are the odds that Hamas attack presages a much wider attack on not just Israel but the entire U.S. position in the Middle East? It is possible that I have simply lost my marbles, but this thing is to well planned and executed to just be an attempt to get the Israelis to take a political hit from leveling Gaza. It seems an awfully indirect way to decrease the ammo available to Ukraine, doubly so since The Israelis can handle Gaza by themselves. Have the Russians GIVEN Iran enough nukes to really make them a nuclear power in the hope the resulting chaos lets them get something out of Ukraine? There is another shoe to drop here, maybe a truckload of shoes. Maybe Putin thinks mideast chaos will send the price of oil through the roof, and that will reelect Trump. 

Edit: Maybe it as simple as bumping the price of oil, Putin makes more money, and increases trumps chances at the same time. That still plays with everything else in the post though.

Edited October 9, 2023 by dan/california

[cesmonkey]

Israel released this video montage of their striking of Hamas targets: