Israel War Thread

[cesmonkey]

 

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Well that will bring the kettle up to a boil nicely.

[kimbosbread]

37 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Well that will bring the kettle up to a boil nicely.

Unfortunately I trust things published in Americans newspapers as much as I trust things I or my friends say… not at all, especially not main ones, unfortunately.

The China bringing Saudi under their umbrella would be real interesting, given how much MBS hates Biden. Hats off if our East Asian brothers could pull that off.

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Well that will bring the kettle up to a boil nicely.

Does it?

Iran has always backed anti-Israel militants, it's like an open secret at this point. And Israel has always mounted clandestine operations to reduce the support for terrorist organisations or the progress of Iranian weapons programs.

There will be no conventional war between these countries because they have no shared border and neither of them has the means to mount a naval invasion of the other. 

The point in time to deal with Iran, weaken BRICS and generally do something good was when the anti-theocratic protests were at their peak in Iran last year. Fund and arm the population, break the Mullah regime. But the West has a) for better or worse lost its Machiavellian ways and b) after Syria no one really wants to dip their foot into pro-democratic rebellions in the Middle East anymore. And Israel alone does not have the means.

[SteelRain]

18 hours ago, danfrodo said:

So are you thinking that perhaps Netanyahu will actually get some of the blame?  I was thinking that he'll pass the blame on to others, successfully, but maybe it goes the other direction.  As was stated in a post above, perhaps the claim that Netanyahu was so busy playing politics & cronyism that he left the country vulnerable.  I can't stand Netanyahu so I would enjoy watching that.

In my small, little, perfect world that is what i would hope for. A factual and objective investigation after the dust has settled but i am convinced that this attack will brush away the opposition to Netanyahu and the 2023 judicial reform. 

[Ultradave]

12 hours ago, dan/california said:

What if the Iranians planned this as a prelude to doing a nuclear test? They could pronounce Gaza to be under their Umbrella/Protection.

Umbrella of what? They have about enough material to make ONE uranium warhead nuclear weapon. They have a missile program, but really no way to mount and deliver a U weapon on a missile. They have NO capability at all of creating a Pu warhead weapon, which would be required for missile delivery. A Pu warhead is significantly smaller. Their one and only method of possibly getting Pu was the Arak reactor and that was permanently reconfigured under the terms of the JCPOA to not be a source of Pu for a weapon. They could process enough U for a weapon, do a test, then have to start processing more U for another weapon, which will take some time, although not a year as under the terms of the JCPOA. But even so, should they do so, I would expect an immediate and violent response by the US and UK at a minimum, to cripple their nuclear infrastructure. A lot is buried and it wouldn't all be destroyed but certainly would be significantly set back.

12 hours ago, dan/california said:

Have the Russians GIVEN Iran enough nukes to really make them a nuclear power

Highly, highly unlikely. Russia is a party to the JCPOA. They have no interest in having a nuclear armed Iran that close to them or their former -stans, which is a big reason they were a party to the agreement in the first place. The Bushehr power reactor in Iran is under IAEA safeguards and part of that is that Russia provides all the fuel, and they receive the spent fuel back. Iran has no capacity to reprocess fuel to extract Pu even if they held on to the spent fuel, and even if they did have that capability, Pu from spent fuel from a PWR is wholly unsuitable for nuclear weapons use. (That's why the DoD has special purpose reactors to do that). They would have needed the spent fuel from the Arak reactor and that is no longer in play. Even though the US withdrew from the JCPOA (a supremely stupid act, IMO), many of its requirements still exist. 

Dave

[cesmonkey]

 

[TheVulture]

26 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

"Al-Qassam brigade unveils air defence system" - contains no footage of said air defence system, and just shows a few manpad launches and some misses of an Israeli helicopter.

[JM Stuff]

I really can't believe that no one thought about it, throughout the army and the secret services but also simply in the minds of the people, dancing far away and without protection...

September October is becoming to be a time of sadness...
 

Be awake about the reality for a moment... "hey guys, wait a minute, tomorrow is the 50th anniversary, we should perhaps care, maybe there is something in the tube, so guys stay vigilant" ?...

There were enough clues to pay a little more attention to the situation.

Edited October 9, 2023 by JM Stuff

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

"Al-Qassam brigade unveils air defence system" - contains no footage of said air defence system, and just shows a few manpad launches and some misses of an Israeli helicopter.

Here is a related post from Russian telegrammer Rybar:
https://t.me/rybar/52984
 

Quote

The Palestinians are slowly pulling out new items from the Iranian military-industrial complex (and its derivatives). We have already written about Mutabar-1 - the remote-controlled version turned out to be a newer version.

They just reported on the use of certain Mutabar-3 air defense systems, which fired at two Israeli F-16Is from a distance of 35 km. "Mutabar-3" is an improved version of the "Mutabar-1" MANPADS . In addition, Badr-3

missiles have just launched strikes on Netivot : one missile is capable of carrying up to 350 kg of payload over a distance of up to 160 km . #Israel #Palestine @rybar Support us

Telegram
Fisherman
Hamas media resources published footage of Palestinian formations using surface-to-air missiles from Mutabar-1 single-shot remote-controlled launchers of their own production.

Several questions immediately arise about the video. For example…

 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Ultradave said:

Umbrella of what? They have about enough material to make ONE uranium warhead nuclear weapon. They have a missile program, but really no way to mount and deliver a U weapon on a missile. They have NO capability at all of creating a Pu warhead weapon, which would be required for missile delivery. A Pu warhead is significantly smaller. Their one and only method of possibly getting Pu was the Arak reactor and that was permanently reconfigured under the terms of the JCPOA to not be a source of Pu for a weapon. They could process enough U for a weapon, do a test, then have to start processing more U for another weapon, which will take some time, although not a year as under the terms of the JCPOA. But even so, should they do so, I would expect an immediate and violent response by the US and UK at a minimum, to cripple their nuclear infrastructure. A lot is buried and it wouldn't all be destroyed but certainly would be significantly set back.

Highly, highly unlikely. Russia is a party to the JCPOA. They have no interest in having a nuclear armed Iran that close to them or their former -stans, which is a big reason they were a party to the agreement in the first place. The Bushehr power reactor in Iran is under IAEA safeguards and part of that is that Russia provides all the fuel, and they receive the spent fuel back. Iran has no capacity to reprocess fuel to extract Pu even if they held on to the spent fuel, and even if they did have that capability, Pu from spent fuel from a PWR is wholly unsuitable for nuclear weapons use. (That's why the DoD has special purpose reactors to do that). They would have needed the spent fuel from the Arak reactor and that is no longer in play. Even though the US withdrew from the JCPOA (a supremely stupid act, IMO), many of its requirements still exist. 

Dave

I am not even saying they could deliver an indigenously produced weapon by any means except a suicide bomber in a plane or truck. I am saying that if I was was the Iranian government, and I wanted to do something besides getting Gaza turned into a parking lot, this is the moment I would do a nuclear test. We have just had a brutal lesson that our intelligence is not as good as we think it is. The odds the Iranians have enough fissile material for a couple of tests at least seems rather high. 

And yes withdrawing from the JCPOA was incredibly stupid, but Trump did it. I think there is a pretty direct line from that decision to the current disaster in Gaza.

The assumption that Russia would never , EVER hand out a few nukes was a really good one two years ago. I think it is a much less valid assumption now. We still don't REALLY understand the planning and supplying of this operation. The fact that we don't understand it, and had ZERO warning ought make us question a very great many assumptions.

Edit: and I think the Iranians doing a test would probably get Gaza turned into a parking lot much faster than it already is. But one assumption I think we can make with very high reliability is that the the Iranians care any more about what happens to thePalestinians than Putin cares for the lives of mobiks from anywhere outside of Moscow and St Petersburg. Actually they probably care less, if that is even possible.

Edited October 9, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

Allow me to rephrase a little bit, If I was the Iranian government, and I wanted to advance my interests by provoking Israel into flattening Gaza. I really think this thing has a second stage, we should assume it does until proven otherwise.

Edited October 9, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

There Are No Rules

States and quasi-states are using extreme, uninhibited violence against civilian populations.

By Anne Applebaum

 

 

 

[danfrodo]

and now we move from the attack crisis to the longer, ugly, heartbreaking, hostage crisis.  My guess is Israel will hold all of Gaza 'hostage' until hamas releases the kidnapped Israelis; can't say I would do different given the situation.  Maybe Israel will also agree to free some prisoners or some such to help get to a deal.  But this is going to be so ugly going forward.  A huge humanitarian crisis ahead while these f-ing monsters hold Israeli citizens.  

Hamas has unleashed and unrestrained Israeli military power in a way not seen in a very long time.  Israel right now has carte blanch in (most) world opinion.  This will change over time, so Israel will probably hit hard in immediate term before the humanitarian costs start to change world opinion.

I get that the young palestinian men who actually did the attack have grown up in oppression.  It's their leaders that have to be blamed, as they use these young men as angry tools for their own twisted strategies.  As I said earlier, they should've gone very intensive non-violent campaign decades ago.  That would've paid off.  This just makes everything so much worse for people already generationally oppressed by both their enemies (israelis) and their allies (their arab/muslim 'friends')

[Letter from Prague]

I wonder if the world opinions have changed much by this. At least in my bubble, the previously pro-Israel people are shouting about "glassing Gaza", while the previously pro-Palestine people are saying things like "yes, that was horrific, but ...".

I heard a lot of "I used to be pro-Palestine, but now I'm not" but again, in my bubble, I heard it from people who never actually were.

Seems everyone is already in position, they are just shouting louder.

[TheVulture]

Joint statement from five European leaders: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-from-quint-leaders-on-israel-9-october-2023

 

Today, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States of America released the following joint statement following their call:

Today, we — President Macron of France, Chancellor Scholz of Germany, Prime Minister Meloni of Italy, Prime Minister Sunak of the United Kingdom, and President Biden of the United States — express our steadfast and united support to the State of Israel, and our unequivocal condemnation of Hamas and its appalling acts of terrorism.

We make clear that the terrorist actions of Hamas have no justification, no legitimacy, and must be universally condemned. There is never any justification for terrorism.  In recent days, the world has watched in horror as Hamas terrorists massacred families in their homes, slaughtered over 200 young people enjoying a music festival, and kidnapped elderly women, children, and entire families, who are now being held as hostages. 

Our countries will support Israel in its efforts to defend itself and its people against such atrocities. We further emphasise that this is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks to seek advantage.

All of us recognise the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people, and support equal measures of justice and freedom for Israelis and Palestinians alike. But make no mistake: Hamas does not represent those aspirations, and it offers nothing for the Palestinian people other than more terror and bloodshed.

Over the coming days, we will remain united and coordinated, together as allies, and as common friends of Israel, to ensure Israel is able to defend itself, and to ultimately set the conditions for a peaceful and integrated Middle East region.

[cesmonkey]

Israel released this video compilation of clips from the attacks by Hamas:

 

[dan/california]

So do the Israelis stop at the Gaza border to negotiate about hostages, or just reoccupy the the whole thing as fast as they can grind through it? I can see it going either way.

 

[Aragorn2002]

On 10/8/2023 at 1:41 PM, SteelRain said:

I'm a bit puzzled by the scale of the attack and can't believe that in this day and age preparations for such action were not noticed by Israels intelligence services.

 

On 10/8/2023 at 1:45 PM, Butschi said:

In a German newspaper I read something about Israel's Pearl Harbour. That is an interesting parallel because now we can have the same (conspiracy) theories about the government actually knowing about it in advance but doing nothing because they profited from it.

 

On 10/8/2023 at 2:06 PM, SteelRain said:

I think the overwhelming majority participating in this discussion is not interested in superficial bull**** like the Stab-in-the-back myth. Lets focus on facts backed by evidence instead.

???

[keas66]

I'm seeing some clips which  lack a lot of context obviously but seem to show  IDF forces  being rescued by Armed Police . This seems  quite baffling to me -  Two  apparently mobile "Namer"  IFV's - which come with weapon systems I am pretty sure - both seem to have power - and yet the IDF is being rescued by the police ?   Where is the response by other IDF units -  where is the air support - Why are they not using the IFV's  to fight back  ? 

 

 

 

[cesmonkey]

Interesting if true:
 

 

[Seedorf81]

14 hours ago, dan/california said:

So do the Israelis stop at the Gaza border to negotiate about hostages, or just reoccupy the the whole thing as fast as they can grind through it? I can see it going either way.

 

This is what I wrote yesterday (in the wrong placed Israel-thread), but still think it is valid.

 

Hamas just now announced that they will publicly execute one hostage for every next (air?land? both?) attack on Gaza.

I fear that the Israeli army high command and the majority of the cabinet already realize/fear/accept that the hostages will die anyway. (They won't say that out loud, obviously.)

Hamas poked the bear, even gave it a real bloody nose and they probably can hurt the bear even more, but it still is a bear.

Israeli gloves are off, and I fear it's going to be much more bloody murder on both sides.

[dan/california]

7min ago

 

Quote

 

Hamas, Hezbollah release claims for separate rocket attacks from Lebanon

By GIANLUCA PACCHIANI

Hamas issues a claim of responsibility for an earlier rocket attack against Israel from Lebanon.

“We are advancing on the path of liberation and return by launching targeted missile strikes on settlements in the Western Galilee from southern Lebanon,” reads a statement by the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas.

“Our resistance will continue until we realize our right of return, the release of our prisoners, the cleansing of al-Aqsa, and we break the siege on Gaza.”

Fifteen rockets were fired by Hamas from Lebanon during the day, four of which were intercepted by the Iron Dome air defense system, while the rest landed in open areas, causing no damage or injuries, the IDF said.

Hezbollah also releases a claim of responsibility for firing two anti-tank missiles at an Israeli armored vehicle near Avivim on the Lebanon border. None were hurt in the attack. The claim highlights that the attack is a response to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah observation points on Monday, in which three Hezbollah members were killed.

That was itself a response to an infiltration attack by Lebanese gunmen that killed three Israeli soldiers.

 

The northern border is heating up, slowly , but surely.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

This is what I wrote yesterday (in the wrong placed Israel-thread), but still think it is valid.

 

Hamas just now announced that they will publicly execute one hostage for every next (air?land? both?) attack on Gaza.

I fear that the Israeli army high command and the majority of the cabinet already realize/fear/accept that the hostages will die anyway. (They won't say that out loud, obviously.)

Hamas poked the bear, even gave it a real bloody nose and they probably can hurt the bear even more, but it still is a bear.

Israeli gloves are off, and I fear it's going to be much more bloody murder on both sides.

This is purely my personal opinion. I think the Israelis are going to launch a truly all out ground assault on Gaza, and at least temporarily reoccupy it. 

[Seedorf81]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This is purely my personal opinion. I think the Israelis are going to launch a truly all out ground assault on Gaza, and at least temporarily reoccupy it. 

It will be (is, already) an unimaginable horror for the families of the missing/kidnapped persons, but the rest of the Israeli's might have the opinion that after a 1000 people being butchered, there can be no more talking with those who executed and organized the attack. Even if it means the death of all the hostages.

Hamas may have created a united and resolute Israel that we haven't seen in decades. I suspect we're gonna find out what an almost fully mobilized Israeli army can achieve when they're in full-revenge mode.

But, alas, things will only escalate from here on. The division between "Israel and The West" and the Arab/Muslim world will only get worse.

Just the huge difference between reactions and emotions on western news (CNN/BBC) and non-western news (Al Jazeera) is shocking. In the West there is horror, disbelief, and condemning of the brutal attack. And mostly empathy for Israel.

But the Arab/muslimworld has a very different outlook. There is a tendency to almost disregard the Hamas-atrocities, because lots of people are absolutely convinced that Israel deserved that. They mention "the West"'s hypocrisy on the Palestinian issue and the horrible way the Israeli's treated the Palestinians for 75 years.

There is an insurmountable difference in beliefs. Whether the Israeli's "destroy" Hamas or not, whether they occupy Gaza or not, whether they give up the illegal settlements and free all Palestinian prisoners or not, it won't bring peace.

It's not a happy conclusion, but it seems to me that it is a neverending horrorstory.