keas66 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, dan/california said: This is purely my personal opinion. I think the Israelis are going to launch a truly all out ground assault on Gaza, and at least temporarily reoccupy it. That went so well for them in 2006 In Lebanon and 2014 in Gaza . I am afraid until I see better results from the IDF - I don't think the IDF really have the ability to go all Stalingrad on Gaza without experiencing massive losses themselves . Edited October 10, 2023 by keas66 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keas66 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 Kind of wish I was subscribed - paywalled - but seem to goes into my own concerns about how the IDF are doing in this crisis . I pretty sure they will not do too well with a ground assault into the Gaza Strip if Hamas are ready for them https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/israeli-military-vulnerable-war-hamas/675591/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 It is the 21st century and in our version of the impending cyberpunk dystopia, the official social media accounts of enemy entities exchange fighting words on social media after real life massacres. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 27 minutes ago, keas66 said: That went so well for them in 2006 In Lebanon and 2014 in Gaza . I am afraid until I see better results from the IDF - I don't think the IDF really have the ability to go all Stalingrad on Gaza without experiencing massive losses themselves . I strongly suspect they are going to be told to take the casualties, and also to drop any building they take fire from. We are looking at something ten to one just by troop numbers. Israel wants the south wrapped up, before the Hezbollah really gets in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris talpas Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 If they’ve written off the hostages, then going full siege mode and relentless pummeling from the air will considerably weaken the defenders if continued for a week plus. Things are going to get pretty grim and barbaric quickly when food and water run out shortly. Pity the civilian population-it really isn’t fair but they threw their support behind Hamas. Now the gloves are off and Biden has given carte blanche Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxromana Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, chris talpas said: If they’ve written off the hostages, then going full siege mode and relentless pummeling from the air will considerably weaken the defenders if continued for a week plus. Things are going to get pretty grim and barbaric quickly when food and water run out shortly. Pity the civilian population-it really isn’t fair but they threw their support behind Hamas. Now the gloves are off and Biden has given carte blanche War isn't fair. Hamas seems to have misunderstood that Sieges make what Israel has done all perfectly legal. As ye sow, so shall ye reap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinz Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 hour ago, keas66 said: Kind of wish I was subscribed - paywalled - but seem to goes into my own concerns about how the IDF are doing in this crisis . I pretty sure they will not do too well with a ground assault into the Gaza Strip if Hamas are ready for them https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/israeli-military-vulnerable-war-hamas/675591/ https://gitlab.com/magnolia1234/bypass-paywalls-chrome-clean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 2 hours ago, keas66 said: Kind of wish I was subscribed - paywalled - but seem to goes into my own concerns about how the IDF are doing in this crisis . I pretty sure they will not do too well with a ground assault into the Gaza Strip if Hamas are ready for them https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/israeli-military-vulnerable-war-hamas/675591/ Here is the thing, Hamas just started a REAL WAR. Hamas has never fought a real war. Even the master class they just gave in terrorist atrocities was not a real war. They have no artillery, no meaningful medium or high altitude air defense, and no strategic depth at all. Israel will take a lot of casualties from mines, drones, IEDs and the general ugliness of urban fighting, but Hamas can't just STOP them the way Ukraine has stalled in those truly massive minefields, backed up by huge quantities of artillery and MLRS, including MLRS that can refill breaches in minefields. Not with the Israeli Air Force being willing to drop buildings wholesale. Hamas has withstood some police actions, and some punitive strikes in the past. Unless i am seriously mistaken this is going to be a completely different thing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris talpas Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 They also now have no supply lines and are cut off 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-presidents-inbox/id1172546141?i=1000630880366 Eliot Abrams and Steven Cook discussing the Israeli/Hamas War(tm). There is lot of stuff we have gone over, and one potential blockbuster. One of them says there is a video, of one of the atrocities and taken by Hamas, in which he claims one of the terrorists is speaking Farsi. I haven't had time to hunt the video down, but both of these guys a very senior former U.S. government officials. Neither of them has any reputation for being crazy that I am aware of. Proof of one IRGC member participating in this mass atrocity would be significant. Actually it would probably be seismic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrophel Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Reminding me of Einstein's definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for a different result. "Hamas" in various guises have been committing atrocities for decades, and Israel tries to deter the next attacks by ever more military shock and awe. Meanwhile the death toll mounts among the innocents. Hopefully the carrier task force will deter any more insanity in the region. There are plenty of nut cases wanting to pull more triggers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 7 hours ago, chris talpas said: Pity the civilian population-it really isn’t fair but they threw their support behind Hamas. This is kind of the same logic that terrorists use when killing civilians in Europe and USA. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 We live in interesting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seedorf81 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 (edited) In the Ukraine-thread the importance of state of the morale of an army/nation at war was discussed. Concensus seems to be that it can be vital. Before the Hamas-attack a whole lot of Israeli's had doubts about the way their government treated the Palestine-situation. The repression, the illegal settlements, the nazi-like (yes, use this phrase on purpose) ultra rightwing-orthodox philosophy and more, made even veteran soldiers and pilots start doubting, and even refusing, their orders. So morale wasn't very good. But now? Like the Ukrainian morale after the Russian invasion; a collective ruthlessness and self-sacrificing total determination. Hamas had it's "victory", but it may be the best example of a Pyrrhic victory we have seen in a very long time. Edited October 11, 2023 by Seedorf81 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said: In the Ukraine-thread the importance of state of the morale of an army/nation at war was discussed. Concensus seems to be that it can be vital. Before the Hamas-attack a whole lot of Israeli's had doubts about the way their government treated the Palestine-situation. The repression, the illegal settlements, the nazi-like (yes, use this phrase on purpose) ultra rightwing-orthodox philosophy and more, made even veteran soldiers and pilots start doubting, and even refusing, their orders. So morale wasn't very good. But now? Like the Ukrainian morale after the Russian invasion; a collective ruthlessness and self-sacrificing total determination. Tha Hamas had it's "victory", but it could be the best example of a Pyrrhic victory we have seen in a very long time. I see Hamas as less of a player and more of a pawn. And this attack was another move on the chessboard that is the Middle East. So asking what Hamas gains from this is the wrong question, I think. They served their purpose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 41 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: I see Hamas as less of a player and more of a pawn. And this attack was another move on the chessboard that is the Middle East. So asking what Hamas gains from this is the wrong question, I think. They served their purpose. And the goals and interests of the Hamas leadership, safely not in Gaza I believe, might be rather different to those of either the wider Hamas membership, or the Palestinian civilians in Gaza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 24 minutes ago, TheVulture said: And the goals and interests of the Hamas leadership, safely not in Gaza I believe, might be rather different to those of either the wider Hamas membership, or the Palestinian civilians in Gaza. But who are the real Hamas leadership? I'm pretty sure you are correct that they are not in Ghaza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said: This is kind of the same logic that terrorists use when killing civilians in Europe and USA. Yeah, it doesn't really work. The USA went a wee bit unhinged after 9/11, but the principle of "whatever is in the centre of the crosshair needs to be a legitimate target" largely continued to apply. The normal Afghani population was not considered as having "thrown in their lot in with the Taliban". Of course, Gaza is infinitely smaller and denser populated, the local political situation is different, but the IDF still has to follow the rules (even if the international community will cut them a ton of slack for whatever they are preparing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, chuckdyke said: We live in interesting times. Below is the auto-translation of the video's description on YouTube: Quote Defense Minister Pistorius is a guest on #Nachgefragt for the first time . In this episode, the minister explains his plans to permanently station a German brigade in Lithuania . The permanent stationing of a Bundeswehr brigade in Lithuania means that family members will also have the opportunity to live there for a longer period of time. The minister explains that daycare centers and schools are also necessary for this. The brigade, which is to be stationed in Lithuania, will consist of soldiers from various units from Germany and will be robust, meaning it should be able to act and fight immediately. Click here to go to the Bundeswehr's YouTube channel: / armed forces Interesting, but not sure why it is relevant to the Israel thread. Edited October 11, 2023 by cesmonkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warrenpeace Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Israel will invade Gaza and reoccupy for some period of time. Given the number of people killed in the initial Hamas attack, Isreali's will be willing to take the IDF casualties necessary to complete the operation. They will literally go house to house (rubble to rubble) to disarm the entire population. Lots of innocent Gazans will likely die during the operation. The real question is: What comes next? For the last 30 years zero progress has been made to solve the Palestinian Issue. The two-state solution seems to be dead, but no alternative has emerged. But what other choices are there? The only way a one State solution-only way this would work would be to deny Palestinians full citizenship, i.e. make them 2nd class citizens without full rights. Give them some limitied ability to control their own local areas. Sounds like South Africa in the 1980's to me. Won't be viable in long term. How about a three-state solution? Let Gaza be its own state. Sounds wacky, but after this war Gaza will be in ruins and Israel will be able to dictate what type of government it has next. Think Germany or Japan after ww2. Maybe the strategy should be to offer to rebuild Gaza, set up a democratic government with a constitution, and a time frame after which the Isreali's will leave. Sounds crazy, but this is essentially what happenend to Germany and Japan after ww2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 21 minutes ago, warrenpeace said: Israel will invade Gaza and reoccupy for some period of time. Given the number of people killed in the initial Hamas attack, Isreali's will be willing to take the IDF casualties necessary to complete the operation. They will literally go house to house (rubble to rubble) to disarm the entire population. Lots of innocent Gazans will likely die during the operation. The real question is: What comes next? For the last 30 years zero progress has been made to solve the Palestinian Issue. The two-state solution seems to be dead, but no alternative has emerged. But what other choices are there? The only way a one State solution-only way this would work would be to deny Palestinians full citizenship, i.e. make them 2nd class citizens without full rights. Give them some limitied ability to control their own local areas. Sounds like South Africa in the 1980's to me. Won't be viable in long term. How about a three-state solution? Let Gaza be its own state. Sounds wacky, but after this war Gaza will be in ruins and Israel will be able to dictate what type of government it has next. Think Germany or Japan after ww2. Maybe the strategy should be to offer to rebuild Gaza, set up a democratic government with a constitution, and a time frame after which the Isreali's will leave. Sounds crazy, but this is essentially what happenend to Germany and Japan after ww2. Could also be that the endgame is driving all Palestinians out of Ghaza and into Egypt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seedorf81 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: Could also be that the endgame is driving all Palestinians out of Ghaza and into Egypt. May be, but the Egyptians won't accept that. Everybody feels sorry for the Palestinians, but not sorry enough for taking in 2 million disgruntled people. (Can't blame them, t.b.h.) I suspect that Egypt could go to war with Israel, if this reversed Exodus took place. And if that happens, other Arab states will join in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 15 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said: May be, but the Egyptians won't accept that. Everybody feels sorry for the Palestinians, but not sorry enough for taking in 2 million disgruntled people. (Can't blame them, t.b.h.) I suspect that Egypt could go to war with Israel, if this reversed Exodus took place. And if that happens, other Arab states will join in. It wouldn't be the first time Israel drove out Palestinians into neighbouring countries where many of them are still stuck in huge refugee camps to this day. Ghazans already live in what has been described as "the world's biggest prison", completely controlled and dominated by Israel. And the Arab countries can do nothing against Israel and they all know that. Israel also knows that, and that is a big part of why they act like they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Quote https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/11/us-troops-middle-east-attacks-israel-00120941 The Pentagon is concerned about the potential for new attacks on American troops stationed in the Middle East from Iran and its proxy forces as the conflict between Israel and Hamas militants escalates in an already tumultuous region, according to Defense Department officials. Hopefully we can avoid a SECOND surprise attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/11/us/politics/iran-israel-gaza-hamas-us-intelligence.html Early Intelligence Shows Hamas Attack Surprised Iranian Leaders, U.S. Says That is interesting. That kind of goes against "Iran is behind it all" people seem to be taking for granted. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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