How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What is interesting is that Putin and his flunkies haven't bothered to look back into history and see that there's no example of terrorism breaking the will of a motivated country to continue fighting.  In fact, it does the opposite.

Steve

Russians of all people should understand that fact given that Nazi Germany signally failed to succeed against them despite applying the same policy of frightfulness. But the fact is that dictatorships coalesce because the societies that produce them were bad at the nuanced application of policy to start with. The dictatorship was supposed to be the decisive institutor of order without all of the complicated mess involved with negotiating between interest groups and as that internal imposition fails to solve domestic problems it gets externalized...with similar methodology.  

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Russians hit a crowded shopping mall in Kremenchuk (Poltava oblast):

Ka-52 hit by Martlet. A very long range shot:

 

Pilot was either suicidal or thought he was in a safe zone. He was straight and level at least 500ft with no flares. I do hope the Ukrainians captured him.

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Russians of all people should understand that fact given that Nazi Germany signally failed to succeed against them despite applying the same policy of frightfulness. But the fact is that dictatorships coalesce because the societies that produce them were bad at the nuanced application of policy to start with. The dictatorship was supposed to be the decisive institutor of order without all of the complicated mess involved with negotiating between interest groups and as that internal imposition fails to solve domestic problems it gets externalized...with similar methodology.  

Or that a society is fundamentally flawed from inception with divisions amongst interests that no party has a desire to rationalize, so a dictatorship is the only way they can make it work.  The impulse to project that externally then is almost impossible to avoid as it is baked into the unstable social construct at a cultural level.

[kraze]

55 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

 I want to start hearing things like "serial mass murderer & dictator of Russia, Vladimir Putin" become the norm.  He has murdered dozens of thousands now, crippled and maimed many times that, and wrecked the lives of literally millions.

Problem with that framing is is that putin receives whole blame, whereas he's just a representative of his people and simply does what russian people keep him in power to do.

Blaming putin (or his cronies) alone is a huge mistake. One of those telegram channels belonging to "Kotenok" has 700.000 subscribers. Few english-speaking YT channels have as many is what I'm saying.

Edited June 27, 2022 by kraze

[Huba]

So apparently the mall is next to a rather big machine factory, there are multiple huge halls in the close proximity. Reportedly RU used Kh-22 in the attack, which AFAIK is radar guided and only good enough to hit huge contrasting ground targets - and from many such objects in the targeted area, it choose the mall building...

 

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

Problem with that framing is is that putin receives whole blame, whereas he's just a representative of his people and simply does what russian people keep him in power to do.

Blaming putin (or his cronies) alone is a huge mistake.

I generally agree w all things Kraze, but I don't think I see this the same way.  I think you mean that Russia has a collective insanity -- I agree, but this insanity starts at the top and is distributed via propaganda from the top down.  Does Putin care about and represent the interests of the russian people -- doesn't seem so as he's oppressed them, economically and politically, for 20 years while making himself and his cronies crazy rich.  The population mostly believes this is due to bad foreigners, of course.

Blamin Putin is also very handy for the future, where removing Putin gives Russian a way to start to make amends w the world.  W Putin in power, there is no way forward.

Edited June 27, 2022 by danfrodo
edit

[keas66]

12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Does Putin care about and represent the interests of the russian people -- doesn't seem so as he's oppressed them, economically and politically, for 20 years while making himself and his cronies crazy rich.  The population mostly believes this is due to bad foreigners, of course.

I think you are making Kruze's point for him are you not ? . If after 20 years the only Russians left all actually  believe the propaganda being pumped out - how is that really any different from them being true believers as opposed to just deluded patsies ?  They still behave the same .  Anyone  of a reasonable nature  who can - has probably already left the country .

[Grigb]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Blamin Putin is also very handy for the future, where removing Putin gives Russian a way to start to make amends w the world.  W Putin in power, there is no way forward.

I suspect this is how it will be done at the end - everything will be blamed on Putin. They gonna put Navalny as president and then launch campaign to lift the sanctions. They will label sanctions amoral and might succeed in lifting them. A dozen years later there will be a new Putin.  

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I suspect this is how it will be done at the end - everything will be blamed on Putin. They gonna put Navalny as president and then launch campaign to lift the sanctions. They will label sanctions amoral and might succeed in lifting them. A dozen years later there will be a new Putin.  

It's reasonable to expect the lifting of sanctions to be tied to giving up all the convicted war criminals and paying the reparations. The first part especially would be a groundbreaking change for the RU, they have never ever admitted to doing anything wrong in their history ever ( little attempts made by Khruschev or Yeltsin were quickly reverted). It will take Putin kicking the bucket of course, and his successor willing to change the course, at least initially. After that, Ukraine should be admitted to NATO, and Russians can then do whatever they please, they are powerless against the alliance.

Edited June 27, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

Result of yesterdays missile strike on Kyiv.

Kh-101 cruise missiles, launched from Russian strategic bomber over Caspian sea were targeted on "Artem" factory (producing of different military production, including ATGM, AA, AS missiles and incediary rockets). This factory already was struck three times. Reportedly five missiles approached from southern direction, one was intercepted, but four hit the city. No information about two other hits (probably they hit factory), two other (or their parts after interception) hit residential house near the factory and area near kindergarden not far from. 

This house already was hit (but its other taller section) in previous attack about month or more ago - then parts of intercepted missile hit basment floors and killed one. In this time one dead, six injured (two hospitalized, including 7-year girl)

Kh-101 has 400 kg warhead and more inconspicuous for radars, than previous generation of such missiles like Kh-55. 

Kindergarden area

Edited June 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

16 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I suspect this is how it will be done at the end - everything will be blamed on Putin. They gonna put Navalny as president and then launch campaign to lift the sanctions. They will label sanctions amoral and might succeed in lifting them. A dozen years later there will be a new Putin.  

probably true, but we can't fix Russia.  The Russian people will have to do that.  However the damage Putin is doing now will last a generation.  Russia defaulting now means capital investment will take decades to get over this.  meanwhile Ukraine will rebuild economically and politically, have years to really retool their military from the lessons learned in this war and likely have joined NATO and Russia will be even weaker than it was before this war - meaning it will be a long time before Russia is again a threat to anyone.

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

It's reasonable to expect the lifting of sanctions to be tied to giving up all the convicted war criminals and paying the reparations. The first part especially would be a groundbreaking change for the RU, they have never ever admitted to doing anything wrong in their history ever ( little attempts made by Khruschev or Yeltsin were quickly reverted). It will take Putin kicking the bucket of course, and his successor willing to change the course, at least initially. After that, Ukraine should be admitted to NATO, and Russians can then do whatever they please, they are powerless against the alliance.

Trust the Russians to find a nasty alternative for that scenario.

[FancyCat]

The Russian ammo dump strike from this morning.

 

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

probably true, but we can't fix Russia.  The Russian people will have to do that.  However the damage Putin is doing now will last a generation.  Russia defaulting now means capital investment will take decades to get over this.  meanwhile Ukraine will rebuild economically and politically, have years to really retool their military from the lessons learned in this war and likely have joined NATO and Russia will be even weaker than it was before this war - meaning it will be a long time before Russia is again a threat to anyone.

I'm not so sure of that. They will find other ways to make our world more miserable.

[Artkin]

5 hours ago, Taranis said:

"A residential area hit by a Russian missile, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, June 26, 2022. STRINGER / REUTERS"

I'm surprised that flimsy house held together with such a massive crater next to it. Maybe the earth under the road was just very soft? 

You usually get results exactly like this in CM, and it surprises me. I would have expected that house to be flattened. 

It actually looks mostly brick. I bet an American suburb style construction would be damaged structurally.

Edited June 27, 2022 by Artkin

[hcrof]

1 minute ago, Artkin said:

I'm surprised that flimsy house held together with such a massive crater next to it. Maybe the earth under the road was just very soft? 

You usually get results exactly like this in CM, and it surprises me. I would have expected that house to be flattened. 

I would expect that tin roof to be torn off by the overpressure wave (or subsequent suction), even if the blast was directed upwards by soft ground, but those guys do seem to be reattaching it so maybe that did happen. But the facade of the red building is spotless! 

[akd]

On 6/24/2022 at 3:00 PM, akd said:

Major Vladimir Efremov:

@sburke @Kinophile

Efremov was with the 49th Separate Operational Brigade of the National Guard North Caucasian Regional Command.

[akd]

Excalibur mentioned in a US DoD briefing:

 

[Haiduk]

Air Force Command claims that Amstor mall in Kremenchuk was hit by two Kh-22 missiles, launched over Kursk from two Tu-22M3 bombers of 52nd heavy bomber aviation regiment (Shaykovka airfield, Kaluga oblast). 

Russians could target "Kredmash" plant (Kremenchuk road machines plant) but because of Kh-22 has poor accuracy (up to 500 m CEP for Kh-22M), they could hit the mall (or nearby, caused the desruction and fire), located in 100 m from the plant territory. 

In persent time is knowingly about 10 killed, but resque works still ongoing

 

Russians also shelled Kharkiv with Uragan MLRS, reportedly 4 civilains killed, 19 wounded. 

Edited June 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[poesel]

52 minutes ago, sburke said:

probably true, but we can't fix Russia.  The Russian people will have to do that.  However the damage Putin is doing now will last a generation.

I don‘t want to disagree with you but I don‘t think that that is completely right.

I‘d like to take post-WWII Germany as an example how you can convert a fascist country into a working democracy. That was not Germany fixing Germany - at least not in the beginning. It was a decisively lost war, no questions open. Then there were trials which judged the most obvious criminals and especially those who ‚just followed orders‘.
After that, something happened what many probably wouldn‘t like to happen in Russia: there is a country to run and you need people for that. If every German who deserved it would have been hung or imprisoned, the country would have collapsed. So those got away because a functioning Germany was needed against the Soviets.
But: from then on it was impossible to publicly state nazi ideas so a new generation without those ideas could be raised. The old thinking died when the people who had them died.

So, Russia can fix itself but only after some outside help makes this process possible.

[holoween]

22 minutes ago, poesel said:

I don‘t want to disagree with you but I don‘t think that that is completely right.

I‘d like to take post-WWII Germany as an example how you can convert a fascist country into a working democracy. That was not Germany fixing Germany - at least not in the beginning. It was a decisively lost war, no questions open. Then there were trials which judged the most obvious criminals and especially those who ‚just followed orders‘.
After that, something happened what many probably wouldn‘t like to happen in Russia: there is a country to run and you need people for that. If every German who deserved it would have been hung or imprisoned, the country would have collapsed. So those got away because a functioning Germany was needed against the Soviets.
But: from then on it was impossible to publicly state nazi ideas so a new generation without those ideas could be raised. The old thinking died when the people who had them died.

So, Russia can fix itself but only after some outside help makes this process possible.

While i generally agree youre ignoring some things. Germany had a democratic tradition. The biggest difference between the weimar republic and west germany was one git a major economic depression in its formative years and one a massive economic boom.

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

I would expect that tin roof to be torn off by the overpressure wave (or subsequent suction), even if the blast was directed upwards by soft ground, but those guys do seem to be reattaching it so maybe that did happen. But the facade of the red building is spotless! 

I had the same thoughts. I saw the men on the ladder working, and then I saw the support beam attached to the power line. I can see the pole surviving since it has minimal surface area and good aerodynamics. But that house probably wasn't affected much. It can't be easy to fix brick that's been shifted by a pressure wave.

[Aragorn2002]

42 minutes ago, poesel said:

I don‘t want to disagree with you but I don‘t think that that is completely right.

I‘d like to take post-WWII Germany as an example how you can convert a fascist country into a working democracy. That was not Germany fixing Germany - at least not in the beginning. It was a decisively lost war, no questions open. Then there were trials which judged the most obvious criminals and especially those who ‚just followed orders‘.
After that, something happened what many probably wouldn‘t like to happen in Russia: there is a country to run and you need people for that. If every German who deserved it would have been hung or imprisoned, the country would have collapsed. So those got away because a functioning Germany was needed against the Soviets.
But: from then on it was impossible to publicly state nazi ideas so a new generation without those ideas could be raised. The old thinking died when the people who had them died.

So, Russia can fix itself but only after some outside help makes this process possible.

I don't believe in Russia fixing itself. Let's not repeat that mistake. Russia should be weakened in every possible way. Even more important is that the countries opposing Russia will strengthen their miitary in such a manner that aggression is simply not an option anymore for Russia. Ever. 

Edited June 27, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[poesel]

17 minutes ago, holoween said:

While i generally agree youre ignoring some things. Germany had a democratic tradition. The biggest difference between the weimar republic and west germany was one git a major economic depression in its formative years and one a massive economic boom.

There were only 14 years between the Kaiser and the 3rd Reich. Not much to build a tradition on. Also the Weimar Republic was seen as a failure because of the economy which led to a view that democracy itself was a failure and wouldn‘t work in Germany.

10 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I don't believe in Russia fixing itself. Let's not repeat that mistake. Russia should be weakened in every possible way. 

Yeah, but that is only the first step. Long term you want a stable, democratic Russia or whatever will be in its place. Living next door to barbarians will eventually have them at your gates.

It will be a mayor effort to normalise relations with Russia. I doubt any of us will live to see it.

Edited June 27, 2022 by poesel

[Huba]

41 minutes ago, poesel said:

I don‘t want to disagree with you but I don‘t think that that is completely right.

I‘d like to take post-WWII Germany as an example how you can convert a fascist country into a working democracy. That was not Germany fixing Germany - at least not in the beginning. It was a decisively lost war, no questions open. Then there were trials which judged the most obvious criminals and especially those who ‚just followed orders‘.
After that, something happened what many probably wouldn‘t like to happen in Russia: there is a country to run and you need people for that. If every German who deserved it would have been hung or imprisoned, the country would have collapsed. So those got away because a functioning Germany was needed against the Soviets.
But: from then on it was impossible to publicly state nazi ideas so a new generation without those ideas could be raised. The old thinking died when the people who had them died.

So, Russia can fix itself but only after some outside help makes this process possible.

But in case of Germany, it took loosing a total war and being occupied and governed by foreign powers for years. And with Russia being a nuclear power, this is hardly a realistic scenario.