How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, DMS said:

Why do you react in this way? That is how it is. Why to you write it to me, must I travel to the past and convince people not to be scared of bombings? 

We react this way because your default position is that exercises of Russian power to secure hegemony over your neighbors are all justifiable and reactions by your neighbors to restrict that power are by definition aggression. It would be more honest to just say you are at heart a Putinist and leave it at that.

[Kraft]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Trust me, it is not them or us, it is you.

Soon NATOs agressive and hostile expansion policy soley aimed at destruction of Russian poverty state will continue as the West finally coups Finland and Sweden and forces them to join NATO despite their populations desire to forever live in glorious democracy called Russia.

Maybe Russias peaceful proclamation of Nuclear Holocaust retaliation will open those corrupt polititians eyes as to who the real threat is.. NATO!

Edited May 6, 2022 by Kraft

[Huba]

RIA reports that several Chinese firms, including Xiaomi and Lenovo, stopped deliveries to Russia:

 

[panzermartin]

2 minutes ago, DMS said:

Putin said that he asked Clinton in 2020, but he reacted "coldly". 

Because I found this a bit strange: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule

 

[DMS]

I think you are overreacting to neutral description of process. Just like if someone would write: "Germans were feeling themselves humiliated by defeat of 1918 and wanted to revanche". You: "They should not be feeling humiliation! Their defeat was fair!" Ok, but they were. Go to the past and convince them.

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, DMS said:

I think you are overreacting to neutral description of process. Just like if someone would write: "Germans were feeling themselves humiliated by defeat of 1918 and wanted to revanche". You: "They should not be feeling humiliation! Their defeat was fair!" Ok, but they were. Go to the past and convince them.

But you were not talking about the Russian people's perception, you were describing what was/ happening in the objective reality. We are arguing against the latter. That's a fundamental difference.

Here are your words again, nothing about perceived reality there, but a description of facts:

34 minutes ago, DMS said:

Surely it's a long process. LongLeftFlank brightly described it here. Mix of bribing elites, soft power, sabotage, new proxy wars. It will work someday. NATO was slowly, but persistently moving to the East, incorporating more and more economics, like steamroller. Some politicians tried to stop it and were overthrown with ease. Russia is bigger than other countries, but as LongLeftFlank said, it weakens. At some point new intervention, like in 1918, is possible. Not open invasion, but some sort of proxy war, using bribed local elites, during political crisis. Nothing impossible.

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Huba

[womble]

6 minutes ago, DMS said:

I think you are overreacting to neutral description of process. Just like if someone would write: "Germans were feeling themselves humiliated by defeat of 1918 and wanted to revanche". You: "They should not be feeling humiliation! Their defeat was fair!" Ok, but they were. Go to the past and convince them.

The point here is that the unreasonable nature of the reaction to external action that was nothing to do with them is a symptom of the root problem. Partly that's to do with the willingness to believe the Government's lies (which are all focused on turning your resentment of your state of existence outward away from its root cause, kleptocracy), and partly to do with your willingness to believe the worst about the foreigner rather than recognising that it's a projection of your own national aggressiveness.

Edit: the Germans had at least some rational justification for their resentment of the Versailles settlement; it was draconian, and recognised as such by many folk on both sides at the time. Russians had precisely no justification for fearing bombing after NATO's intervention in the Balkans. None. Zero. It. Was. Never. Going. To. Happen. Never.

Edited May 6, 2022 by womble

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, DMS said:

I think you are overreacting to neutral description of process. Just like if someone would write: "Germans were feeling themselves humiliated by defeat of 1918 and wanted to revanche". You: "They should not be feeling humiliation! Their defeat was fair!" Ok, but they were. Go to the past and convince them.

The Ukrainians are convincing them, one 155 airburst at a time. Quite literally everyone who has ever been ruled by Russia, and managed to get out from under them would literally rather die than go back under Russian control. It really is that simple. And the Putin seems determined to demonstrate they were right to feel that way.

[dan/california]

A battle group plus per day, every single day. Arguably this is more like TWO...

[akd]

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

UAF claiming to have freed a sizeable area in the Karkhiv offensive so far, which looks like it includes the whole T-21-04 road from Karkhiv to Staryi Saltiv

EDIT I was ninja'd by @Huba

Indeed theese villages were liberated 3-4 days ago. Though part of Rus'ki Tyshky maybe was taken day ago. General Staff now confirms liberation only, when all attempts of the enemy to retake the settlement is repelled and troops dug in. 

Awaiting of official information about Staryi Saltiv (Russians counter atatcked there) and Molodova

Todyay locals have written, Russians yesterday's night abandoned Tsyrkuny 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

52 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Anyone any hints, what this might be?

 

 

I read that somewhere else, but there is nothing specific there, so I didn't post it. It's really hard to speculate what could that be, the most impactful we could provide could maybe be F-16 training ?

Edited May 6, 2022 by Huba

[DesertFox]

Just now, Huba said:

I read that somewhere else, but as there is nothing concrete there, so I didn't post it. It's really hard to speculate what could that be, the most impactful we could provide could maybe be F-16 training ?

Ah, yep! Of course speculation but I would love to finally see those polish MiGs being handed over to UKR. Maybe the poles got a deal for replacing them with F16s as desired. We will see.

[DesertFox]

Wonderful drone footage

 

 

[billbindc]

Russian angst about its place in the world has a funny way of looking exactly like the depredations of an inept, hegemonic kleptocracy:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-russians-retreat-ukrainian-residents-trickle-back-to-devastated-villages-near-kharkiv-11651839798?st=veyqqz0eavhq17o&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

 

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Germany benefits a lot from the trade imbalance and EU.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eurozone-problem-country-germany-coronavirus/

Of course the above article does not apply to Ukraine, but the boatloads of Russian gas and oil that help feed Germany do, and fed Russian delusions about European inaction do.

End of the day tho, investing in Ukraine, and assisting the European south, aside from being the right thing to do, will ultimately ensure the economic growth and prosperity that the EU is associated with remains true.

Im my mind it was above all the political chaos in the US that made Putin believe he could get away with attacking Ukraine. The EU has never been more than an indecisive bunch of sheeps, without a shepherd to lead them. I don't think Putin expected such a strong reaction from both the US and the EU. Which brings me back to my initial question. Why didn't Putin invade Ukraine while that bleached idiot was still in the white house?

[warrenpeace]

Nice article in NY Times by reporter on ground with troops near Karkiv.  https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/06/world/europe/ukraine-russia-artillery-kharkiv.html

 

Sounds like both sides are getting tired  and are using artillery and drones to save lives.  Just what I would do in CMBS, if I have time.

[Bulletpoint]

9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Wonderful drone footage

 

 

Strange how drone footage makes it look like something out of a game where you rotate the camera around a unit and inspect it from all angles. There's something surreal about seeing real way in this 'virtual' way, I think.

[BornGinger]

On 5/5/2022 at 5:25 PM, mosuri said:

Can't find the meme picture now, but the idea was roughly

(Russia, knocking on door) "Let me in"
(Finland) "Why?"
(Russia) "I'm going to protect you"
(Finland) "Protect me from what?"
(Russia) "From what I'm going to do to you if you don't let me in"

The exact same procedure that some criminals use in their racketeering to be employed as the "security" for pubs in UK, and other countries, so they can use those pubs as the base for their drug dealing.

[BeondTheGrave]

46 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Russia is acting like a drunken wife beater, pissed off because Ukraine "made you hit them" and blaming city council for all these damned "assault charges"; an entire nation in need of anger management counselling and couples therapy.

The whole NATO expansion argument has this exact energy. "If you just listened to me and did what I told you we would have been okay. But you had to run off to the other guy, now I have to teach Ukraine a lesson." Its really important when discussing NATO expansion to consider that A) Russia did not want to let Eastern Europe go politically and economically during the collapse of the USSR. Eastern Europe forced Russia out by threatening them with the prospect of a civil war (let us go or start killing us in the streets, or, let us go or repeat 53/68 yet again). B ) During the collapse of Russia's periphery it started a half dozen wars and invaded several of former republics. Conflicts which continue to this day in Transnistra and Georgia. This is just to say again that this argument about the USSR/RusFed coming back and trying to reestablish some sphere of influence in Eastern Europe wasn't a theoretical concern, it wasn't a concern blown up by western propagandists, rather it was a realistic concern held by people who had already spent most of their lives trying to rid themselves of the USSR. Russian behavior from 1945 to 1995 created the push for NATO expansion. And in the hypothetical, had NATO not expanded I think we would have seen other regional and continental security arrangements grow up in place. Perhaps the EU would have become far more militarized than it currently is as a result. 

If Russians are so upset at NATO expansion they should ask themselves why its former allies ran so quickly to the other side. Its not like Eastern Europe has been buying that much western surplus, until fairly recently Poland was still armed with domestically upgraded Soviet surplus! These countries are not the free riders most Americans complain about, but rather people who are armed for their own defense. Because they see real risk emanating from their neighbor. Because the Russian government has spent the last 80 years trying to colonize eastern & central Europe for their own ends. You dont see Canada running of to join an EU anti-American alliance, but then the US and Canada have (despite ups and downs) maintained a rather stable and respectful relationship for the last 200 or so years. 

[Vacillator]

9 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Why didn't Putin invade Ukraine while that bleached idiot was still in the white house?

I really can't agree with you here.  Surely it was an orange tan?

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Because they see real risk emanating from their neighbor. Because the Russian government has spent the last 80 300 years trying to colonize eastern & central Europe for their own ends.

FIFY  Apart from that, I agree wholeheartedly, that's how everyone is feeling round this parts.

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

 This is just to say again that this argument about the USSR/RusFed coming back and trying to reestablish some sphere of influence in Eastern Europe wasn't a theoretical concern, it wasn't a concern blown up by western propagandists, rather it was a realistic concern held by people who had already spent most of their lives trying to rid themselves of the USSR.  

There's a story from the the 90's that a Western diplomat was talking to a Russian diplomat and said (to paraphrase): "One of the problems Russia has is that Eastern European countries are afraid of you."

The Russian diplomat's response was; "Shouldn't they be?". 

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by billbindc

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

I really can't agree with you here.  Surely it was an orange tan?

That could very well be. Most of the time I was laughing my head off looking at him, so I never really studied it. 

[OldSarge]

The Sun is showing what appears to be Admiral Makarov on fire. No officil confirmations yet, so the usual salt shaker rules apply.

https://www.the-sun.com/news/5278291/putin-flagship-makarov-fire-neptune-missile-snake-island/