How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BeondTheGrave]

37 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

At this rate Ukraine probably needs to start thinking about where to put the carrier group by end-May.

Ukraine doesnt need a CVBG  Clearly they just need a couple of SSGNs loaded with Neptunes  (joking, give them both the French want to get rid of Foch anyway right?) 

Edited April 28, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[cesmonkey]

Long term-lurker to this thread, here.  I played the original Combat Mission and recently bought CMBS.

It's interesting to look at how some of the regional Russia newspapers are reporting on the war dead coming home to their particular regions.  Two examples:

https://baikal-journal.ru/2022/04/28/tut-vsyo-propahlo-mertveczami/
"Everything here smells of the dead" - according to Google translation.

https://www.e-osetia.ru/news/3375492/spisok-pogibsih-v-ukraine-iz-osetii
22:00, April 21
List of those killed in Ukraine from Ossetia - according to Google translation.

Edited April 28, 2022 by cesmonkey
typo

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

The European Comission apparently believes it and has warned the companies that if they do so they might face punishment for breaking sanctions:

This is both logical and correct.  There was a carve out in the sanctions for maintaining EXISTING CONTRACTS.  The existing contracts call for payments in Euros (maybe also Dollars).  Any deviation from that is, by definition, a new contract (technically, an amendment is still a new contract) or an outright dodge of sanctions.  Either way, not allowed.

Good.

Steve

[FancyCat]

25 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Great TIME article here about Zelensky and his wartime goverment leadership. Fascinating insights into the first days of the war in Kyiv and the daily walk of life in the presidential compound.

https://time.com/6171277/volodymyr-zelensky-interview-ukraine-war/

it's a well worth read. Astounding, I mean I knew the Russians had sent units to Kiev to decapitate the government (a la Afghanistan anyone?) but to hear it described as gunfire being heard, and his wife and kids right beside him, Christ, very brave for him not to flee to Poland or even to a bunker in I suppose in Lviv.

The article states many officials and officers fled. Zelensky did not threaten for their return or give them a ultimatum, he let them secure their families and then asked them to come back, and most did.

Very interesting, and how fortunate Ukraine has Poland and Moldova and Romania to safeguard her people while Ukraine fights.

[Battlefront.com]

51 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

M113s are definitely not IFVs; however, IFVs seem right next to tanks and the "blowing up" list.  M113s can provide better protected battlefield mobility to support this hybrid-Light thing going on though.  More of a modern mounted light infantry approach, in getting these small fast moving ATGM/UAV teams around with protection and better cargo capacity.

A further thought.  It seems that the numbers of M113s going off to Ukraine is in the hundreds.  IMHO that changes things significantly.  Sending someone a small quantity of semi-useful things probably doesn't do much.  Sending a large quantity opens up the possibilities of gaining capabilities through mass (of sorts).  Each individual M113 might not be worth much, but if it frees up several hundred BTRs and BMPs to go into the front, well... that is the sort of "force multiplier" effect a handful could not achieve.

51 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You are correct that at some point in moving to the offence that the UA is going to need heavy metal with guns though and that will be IFVs.  But hey, we started this thing with helmets and vest, thru ATGM/MANPAD, some APCs, and now to arty (HIMARs?!).  At this rate Ukraine probably needs to start thinking about where to put the carrier group by end-May.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

it's a well worth read. Astounding, I mean I knew the Russians had sent units to Kiev to decapitate the government (a la Afghanistan anyone?) but to hear it described as gunfire being heard, and his wife and kids right beside him, Christ, very brave for him not to flee to Poland or even to a bunker in I suppose in Lviv.

The article states many officials and officers fled. Zelensky did not threaten for their return or give them a ultimatum, he let them secure their families and then asked them to come back, and most did.

Very interesting, and how fortunate Ukraine has Poland and Moldova and Romania to safeguard her people while Ukraine fights.

I am looking forward to reading this.

About the fleeing officials... way back when the Russians were advancing I thought Zelensky played this brilliantly.  He could have gotten on the airwaves and called them out as cowards and traitors.  This would have fed into the Russian narrative of the Ukrainian government being a bunch of criminals and untermensch.  It would have shook confidence in the West as well, not to mention for the Ukrainian fighters and civilians.

Instead, Zelensky stayed in Kyiv with his family and calmly told his nation, Russia, and the world that this was going to be a fight to the end.  No attention was drawn to those who left, though there was some mention of a backup government being formed in Lviv.  That in and itself was brilliant as it was clearly a backup plan since the active government stayed in Kyiv, rather very pragmatic reassurance that the fight wouldn't end if Kyiv fell.  The preservation of government records was also prominently mentioned to, again, reassure everybody that no matter what Russia did it could not decapitate Ukraine's government.

Accepting those who fled back to Kyiv is another brilliant move.  A good leader understands that we're all Human and panic is not necessarily a reflection on someone's character and dedication.  Lizard brain sometimes gets the upper hand!

Zelensky's open mocking of Putin's efforts to kill him is one for the record books.  Using his power of personality and confidence clearly got the West doing things that a weaker leader would not have.

For all the failings of his government prior to this conflict, Zelensky succeeded in the single most important thing of Ukraine's 100s of years of history -> not bowing to Russia.  I also credit Yatsenyuk and Turchynov for similar, though less dramatic, actions in 2014 and 2015.  Zelensky would likely not be president of a free Ukraine if they hadn't done their part to stand up to Putin.

Compare this to how Putin would have handled a similar situation.  He'd expend enormous amounts of effort to hunt down and murder the people who left their posts.  Of that we can be assured.

Steve

[MikeyD]

Wasn't there a post awhile back that Italy was supplying M113-based VCC-1/VCC-2? In the current situation of 'throw everything into Ukraine' parts commonality may count for more than front line utility.

[Haiduk]

In this night Russians struck with heavy bombs from Tu-22M3 the place, under which was Azov's underground hospital. Reportedly one bomb, penetrated into the deep and caused partial destruction of the shelter. Surgical room is destroyed completely, there are casualties among injured soldiers and civilaians. Two days ago Azov showed photos from own underground hospital, where was about 500-600 injured. Medical teams still working in this hellish conditions and perform surgical operations. The hospital was deployed here on the second day of war, when was decided Azovstal would became the main base of Mariupol defense and its last stand.  

Here the photos, issued two daus ago:

 

 

And in the same day Russian TV showed as Azovstal employee, the engineer, collaborating with Russians, showed to them under which facilities of Azovstal passed underground communications and where the shelters located. Azovstal is huge plant, which bigger than some Ukrainain cities, for example it bigger than Lutsk. So, Russians before this bombed Azovstal randomly. But looks like after this betrayal they adjusted their attacks and achieved some success. Reportedly after heavy bombs exploded, Russian conducted about 50 single sorties with tactical jets and then shelled territory with naval guns.

After attacks finished, Ukr troopers became disassemble ruines:

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Reportedly one bomb, penetrated into the deep and caused partial of the shelter. Surgical room is destroyed completely, there are casualties among injured soldiers and civilaians. Two days ago Azov showed photos from own underground hospital, where was about 500-600 injured.

I clicked the like button but only because I appreciate you sharing information about the situation.

[dan/california]

 

36 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

In this night Russians sruck with heavy bombs from Tu-22M3 the place, under which was Azov's underground hospital. Reportedly one bomb, penetrated into the deep and caused partial of the shelter. Surgical room is destroyed completely, there are casualties among injured soldiers and civilaians. Two days ago Azov showed photos from own underground hospital, where was about 500-600 injured. Medical teams still working in this hellish conditions and perform surgical operations. The hospital was deployed here on the second day of war, when was decided Azovstal would the main base of Mariupol defense and its last stand.  

Here the photos, issued two daus ago:

 

 

And in the same day Russian TV showed as Azovstal employee, the engineer, collaborating with Russians, showed to them under which facilities of Azovstal passed underground communications and where the shelters located. Azovstal is huge plant, which bigger than some Ukrainain cities, for example it bigger than Lutsk. So, Russians before this bombed Azovstal randomly. But looks like after this betrayal they adjusted their attacks and achieved some success. Reportedly after heavy bombs exploded, Russian conducted about 50 single sorties with tactical jets and then shelled territory with naval guns.

After attacks finished, Ukr troopers became disassemble ruines:

 

The traitor who gave the Russians information showed his face on TV? Can we start a pool on his life expectancy?

The forces in Mariupol have stood as bravely as any in human history.

 

[DesertFox]

Nice new toy in the ukrainian arsenal. Hope they can put them to good use.

 

 

[dan/california]

This could have immediate effects...

[dan/california]

Cross posted with the fox dude.

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Nice new toy in the ukrainian arsenal. Hope they can put them to good use.

 

 

GLORY GLORY HALELUJIAH ALLAH AKBAR AND THANKS TO EVERY GOD I CAN THINK OF!!!!!!   It's actually in the battle?  -- this is great news!!!   

RA biggest advantage is artillery right now.  Can't wait to see drone footage of RA arty positions getting smashed miles behind the lines, thinking they are dishing it out w/o any fear of counter battery.  Yeah, I will be dancing when I see that.  Now they'll have to fire & displace, which should dramatically reduce the firing rate per day overall.  And when they are destroyed it reduces it even more

[Haiduk]

UKR Osa fires at something with unknown result

 

[Vacillator]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR Osa fires at something with unknown result

Agreed, but the text says it is the downing of a Ka-52 near Kherson?

[sburke]

Spontaneously exploding cars in Moscow?

Several Cars on Fire in Moscow, Explosions Heard in Video (msn.com)

[The_MonkeyKing]

[akd]

36 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Nice new toy in the ukrainian arsenal. Hope they can put them to good use.

 

 

Photo is not Ukraine, and there was never any mention of transfer of M270 to Ukraine, only M142 HIMARS.

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

Photo is not Ukraine, and there was never any mention of transfer of M270 to Ukraine, only M142 HIMARS.

So AKD, you think this is information is false?  Dang it. 

[Vacillator]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

So AKD, you think this is information is false?  Dang it. 

And Dan, what are the chances of Joe B getting his plans approved in that strange political system you have over there?  My fingers are crossed...

[dan/california]

The sane half of the Republican party is on board with supporting Ukraine. Mitch McConnell is on record saying give the Ukrainians anything they need. I think it will pass, albeit with the usual hysterics or system seems to require.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

And Dan, what are the chances of Joe B getting his plans approved in that strange political system you have over there?  My fingers are crossed...

well, hard to say.  But this is one area where the two political parties seem to have been working well together so far.  Other than the pro-Putin members of congress it seems like it will be OK, but those are a small minority -- meaning Putin needs to spend more money on lobbying I guess. 

[benpark]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, you made up for it by using a meme from one of the best TV shows of all time, so we're already back on track

Impeccable taste, indeed.

BAT!!

Toast of London, if you need more of the genius that is Matt Berry.

Sorry for the interruption. I thought I was alone in my interests.

[DesertFox]

13 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So AKD, you think this is information is false?  Dang it. 

Nah, not false. Only unsolved question is if it is M142 HIMARS heavy multiple launch rocket system or the M270 heavy multiple launch rocket system. We shall find out soon I guess.

Deliveries of American long-range MLRS to Ukraine began (avia-pro.net)

Modern US M270 or HIMARS Already Destroys russians, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Gives a Hint | Defense Express (defence-ua.com)

Edited April 28, 2022 by DesertFox