How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

47 minutes ago, akd said:

The liberation of Nova Basan:

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a39651567/nova-basan-ukraine-military-photos/

Some great pictures!  We've seen some of the wrecks before, but not the story behind them.

I know many are having a difficult time conceiving that Ukraine's losses are anything less than proportionally painful as Russia's losses.  I don't see any signs of that.  In fact, I see the opposite.  And a quote like this simply reinforces my view:

Quote

Russia's vehicular losses in the battle to liberate Nova Basan speak both to the Ukrainian fighters' skills and their capacity to fight at scale. Just one Ukrainian tank and two infantry vehicles known as BMPs destroyed or captured twenty Russian vehicles. Ukrainian forces lost one vehicle in the battle, which came to rest on a broken fence line, straddling two Russian trenches.

When your enemy is easily spooked and in a carefully set up ambush kill sack, proportional losses aren't to be expected.  And we know that this sort of thing is what Ukraine has been doing on a massive scale for the past 6 weeks.

Steve

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Some great pictures!  We've seen some of the wrecks before, but not the story behind them.

I know many are having a difficult time conceiving that Ukraine's losses are anything less than proportionally painful as Russia's losses.  I don't see any signs of that.  In fact, I see the opposite.  And a quote like this simply reinforces my view:

When your enemy is easily spooked and in a carefully set up ambush kill sack, proportional losses aren't to be expected.  And we know that this sort of thing is what Ukraine has been doing on a massive scale for the past 6 weeks.

Steve

Now this is a veteran unit with the kinks worked out, and having seen what Russia did north of Kyiv, these guys are long weekend of rest away from showing up in the Donbas with DEEP conviction that the only good Russian is a $&$&$%%*** Russian. 

Another quick number on how hard it is to scale up production in a hurry in the modern world. Higher grade semiconductors spend four months in actual fabrication. That is after you have grown and sliced the silicon to grow them on. Both of those activities are their own ultra specialist industries. So in the unlikely event the Chinese have prepared wafers sitting around,  it would be four months before the first chip came out the other end of the FAB to be incorporated in a tank, or a missile. Furthermore there are essentially no surplus wafers or FAB capacity anywhere on planet earth, they have still not caught up with the supply chain issues and demand shock from the pandemic. So for any significant capacity to be diverted to the Russian military XI would have to force a Chinese manufacturer to abrogate an existing contract. This isn't impossible, but it isn't trivial either. Doubly so since the U.S. would hammer any Chinese manufacturer that got caught building stuff for Russia with secondary sanctions that would make it impossible for them to ever buy anymore semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

 

Ok, it was long number....

[silverstars]

Initially when confronted by the war crimes Russia was committing in Bucha, I was reminded of stories of the Katyn Forest massacre in WWII, murders of Polish cadets to undermine the future leadership of Poland. But with the increase in attacks on civilian populations that have no military value, I'm reminded more of the Japanese behavior in WWII...an officer enforced brutality to keep troops in line and also encourage ruthlessness on both sides so no one can expect mercy. Maybe the point is to enrage Ukrainians to shoot prisoners on sight and keep Russia's low morale conscripts from surrendering. Or maybe they really are just orcs.

 

I don't have any answers, I guess I'm just trying to understand this pointless sadism that doesn't assist in any military goals. Hollywood can't write bad guys this horrible.

[dan/california]

Please can we get more likes? pretty please?

[Battlefront.com]

Article with video on the losses of the 247th Guards Airborne Regiment.  55 pictures of their dead so far, including their commander (I recognized his picture) and other key officers.  The article also talks about mutinies by Russian soldiers, including from elite units like the 247th.

https://www.the-sun.com/news/5077878/video-russian-soldiers-regiment-lined-up/

One might think... 55 dead for an entire regiment, that doesn't sound like a lot.  Well, let's look at the numbers and see.

Total strength of the regiment is about 2000, including base personnel.  Let's assume the unit was at 100% full strength prior to the invasion.  Let's further assume that 55 KIA is the total amount killed in action before getting pulled from the line.  Rule of thumb is another roughly 150 were WIA.  Add the two together and divide by 2000 you get 10% loss.  That's pretty bad, except that's not all.

It is probable that the unit went into Ukraine at about 75% strength as that's been the general rule of thumb for mostly contract units which left their conscripts behind.  That puts the total strength at 1500, and that puts the loss percentage to 13%.

Subtract out some quantity of the 1500 that stayed back at base to keep the lights on and the conscripts from doing anything too stupid.  Let's be generous and say that only 100 were left out of the fight (I'd guess maybe 200).  That puts the loss percentage to 14%.

If the unit was under strength to start with, or only 2 out of the 3 battalions were deployed, then the casualty % goes up proportionally.

The conclusion is that when you see those pictures on the table in the video, they could represent 14% losses for the entire regiment.  For an elite unit, that's quite a hit.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

On 2/25/2022 at 2:45 AM, db_zero said:

How the Russian will handle the large urban areas? Surround and siege or try to storm? Urban combat is brutal.

Another big question is if it comes to a point where the Ukrainian soldiers and militia say they've had enough-for now and they decide slip out to NATO countries like Poland, how will NATO handle this? Is the West prepared to support a long term insurgency?

I also have to think that Ukraine has been preparing for this moment and stashed a lot of weapons and ammo. Javelins, Stingers and other modern weapons provided by the west are likely to be stashed if not used and Ukraine is a large country and 190,000 troops seems a bit small to effectively occupy a large country like the Ukraine.

So for those keeping score, wayyyyy back on page 9 of this epic thread @db_zero was the first to suggest that Russia might have bitten off more than it could chew, edging out @The_Captby 4 posts.

Although the point then was occupation, not conquest.

[LongLeftFlank]

On 2/25/2022 at 3:52 AM, Armorgunner said:

The most interesting part. Is that the Russian Armys Elite: The 1st Guards Tank Army, containing: 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Order of Lenin Red Banner Tank Division, 2nd Guards M. I. Kalinin Taman Motor Rifle Division, 6th Separate Tank Brigade, and 27th Separate Guards Sevastopol Red Banner Motor Rifle Brigade. Attacking Charkiw, has been halted by dead hard resistance!!! Can Ukrainian troops stop the 1st Guards Tank Army, they can stop everything Russia can throw at them 

...And on page 10, @Armorgunner was first to throw down and assert the UA can win this!

Door prizes, anyone?

[DMS]

6 hours ago, asurob said:

Torture chambers.  Mass rape.  Genocide.  Threatening their neighbors.  More and more I have to admit this old sailor from the cold war is coming around to the fact that maybe we need to call Ivan's bluff and enter this.  I know it means world war and further the threat of Nuclear war.  I lived through that era and spent 5 years on an aircraft carrier preparing for it and am well versed that there are no winners in that.  But at some point the red line has to get crossed and the world has to say no more.  When the Soviet Union fell I had honestly hoped in the modern world we had seen all the evil that humans could preperatrate on one another, but the reports coming out of "occupied" Ukraine the last couple days have brought me to tears and filled me with so much anger I can hardly control myself.  If I was younger Id already be there doing something carrying the wounded and help the civilians (as I was no soldier) but god damn how much more can we see before we raise our fists?

There has to be more we can do.

Yes, they are raping 78 year old women! Monsters! I read it. PsyOps go extremely well. Actually, such guys like you are priority target. Not own population. Not Russians. We, in Russia, are getting stupid things like dead bodies of soldiers and videos with humiliating of POWs, that actually seeds hatred instead of anti-war feelings, but that's ok for them. That PsyOps centres are targeting you. Well, nothing to do here, we are going to world war.

[kraze]

1 hour ago, silverstars said:

Initially when confronted by the war crimes Russia was committing in Bucha, I was reminded of stories of the Katyn Forest massacre in WWII, murders of Polish cadets to undermine the future leadership of Poland. But with the increase in attacks on civilian populations that have no military value, I'm reminded more of the Japanese behavior in WWII...an officer enforced brutality to keep troops in line and also encourage ruthlessness on both sides so no one can expect mercy. Maybe the point is to enrage Ukrainians to shoot prisoners on sight and keep Russia's low morale conscripts from surrendering. Or maybe they really are just orcs.

 

I don't have any answers, I guess I'm just trying to understand this pointless sadism that doesn't assist in any military goals. Hollywood can't write bad guys this horrible.

In 1941 when retreating they blew up Kyiv dam - which caused massive amount, thousands of civilian deaths in the resulting flood. It didn't stop Germans.

Then they blew up the historical center of Kyiv, not only destroying lots of architecture that was there since before Russia even existed - but killing thousands of civilians. It didn't stop Germans.

But it did encourage a lot of Ukrainian resistance they had to fight up until 1954.

This is the kind of atrocities they commit on territories they consider their own (and why it was always a Russian occupation), so don't be surprised.

[kraze]

25 minutes ago, DMS said:

Yes, they are raping 78 year old women! Monsters! I read it. PsyOps go extremely well. Actually, such guys like you are priority target. Not own population. Not Russians. We, in Russia, are getting stupid things like dead bodies of soldiers and videos with humiliating of POWs, that actually seeds hatred instead of anti-war feelings, but that's ok for them. That PsyOps centres are targeting you. Well, nothing to do here, we are going to world war.

This is an example of why I treat "good" russians like I do. (racist! racist!)

They make snarky comments about their warcrimes like it's nothing.

See - russian invasion and occupation are OK, their warcrimes are OK, but showing russian murderers and rapists or even discussing it is BAD.

"Russian army murdered thousands of innocent people, destroyed thousands of their homes, deported dozens of thousands of Ukrainians into nowhere - but they didn't rape 78 y o woman so stop saying like our army is bad".

Jesus effing Christ.

"We, in Russia, are getting stupid things like dead bodies of soldiers".

Could've been worse, you leave most of those rot on our land.

Edited April 9, 2022 by kraze

[DMS]

6 minutes ago, kraze said:

See - russian invasion and occupation are OK, their warcrimes are OK, but showing russian murderers and rapists or even discussing it is BAD.

 

I am ok with "showing". Fix it. Investigate. I am not ok with dehumanisation as part of war propaganda. 

[Fenris]

The russian federation invaded another country, vast numbers of human beings are now dead, maimed, traumatised and/or refugees.  This wouldn't have happened to any of them if the russian federation had not invaded.

Q.E.D.

[kraze]

2 minutes ago, DMS said:

I am ok with "showing". Fix it. Investigate. I am not ok with dehumanisation as part of war propaganda. 

You mean you are not OK when we are doing it.

But have no fear - our war propaganda will never be as good at it as your soldiers are.

[BletchleyGeek]

Rape is the weaponisation of sex to objectify, humiliate and gain power. In this way has been used countless times in many wars (including wars against great evils).

To find a grown up person question the veracity of rape on the basis of the age of the victim is indicative of:

- That person is not grown up, and very naïve

- Ignorant as well of established historical facts

We are getting very close to this being triggered

 

https://www.globalr2p.org/what-is-r2p/

 

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, DMS said:

I am not ok with dehumanisation as part of war propaganda. 

While my Rottweiler has higher morals than the latter-day Bolsheviks there are problems. He is very protective in regards little children and elderly ladies.  

[Aragorn2002]

4 hours ago, DMS said:

Yes, they are raping 78 year old women! Monsters! I read it. PsyOps go extremely well. Actually, such guys like you are priority target. Not own population. Not Russians. We, in Russia, are getting stupid things like dead bodies of soldiers and videos with humiliating of POWs, that actually seeds hatred instead of anti-war feelings, but that's ok for them. That PsyOps centres are targeting you. Well, nothing to do here, we are going to world war.

Denying present and past Russian (beginning to have dificulties with even typing that word) war crimes (mass rape is a trade mark for the Russian army, always have been, even in Eastern Prussia 1914 and Afghanistan), a picture of NKVD thugs in your profile (those bastards practically invented war crimes), 'threatening' with a world war, as your beloved leader likes  to do....Personally I don't understand why you haven't been removed from this forum a long, long time ago.

Edited April 9, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, BletchleyGeek said:

We are getting very close to this being triggered

 

https://www.globalr2p.org/what-is-r2p/

And what will happen once that is triggered? I don't see it changing anything.

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Rape is the weaponisation of sex to objectify, humiliate and gain power. In this way has been used countless times in many wars (including wars against great evils).

To find a grown up person question the veracity of rape on the basis of the age of the victim is indicative of:

- That person is not grown up, and very naïve

- Ignorant as well of established historical facts

We are getting very close to this being triggered

 

https://www.globalr2p.org/what-is-r2p/

 

I miss several other possibilities with regard to that person. For instance;

- The person doesn't give a damn

- The person is a low life and should be treated as such.

Edited April 9, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[womble]

9 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

And what will happen once that is triggered? I don't see it changing anything.

Sadly, I think you're right. Any move to take protective action, from UN-supported sanctions up to sending in peacekeepers needs Security Council approval, and that is simply not going to happen. I think China would veto it, even if Russia was somehow removed from their permanent seat.

You'll see more General Assembly and lots and lots of failed SC resolutions of condemnation, which might help individual countries make their minds up to pull back from involvement with Russia. So that might be more than nothing, I suppose.

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, womble said:

Sadly, I think you're right. Any move to take protective action, from UN-supported sanctions up to sending in peacekeepers needs Security Council approval, and that is simply not going to happen. I think China would veto it, even if Russia was somehow removed from their permanent seat.

You'll see more General Assembly and lots and lots of failed SC resolutions of condemnation, which might help individual countries make their minds up to pull back from involvement with Russia. So that might be more than nothing, I suppose.

The only protective action that will make any impact is sending as much arms to the Ukrainians soldier as possible.

[chuckdyke]

10 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I miss several other possibilities with regard to that person.

Countries need to apply for NATO membership, NATO doesn't have a need to invade. What else can I think of? Sovereign countries can enter alliances, upsetting Putin is also a right of a sovereign country. His threats of nuclear weapons? I wonder or they even work. I pen the last down because the reason they have not been used yet is not because of the humane feelings of Mr Putin. 

[Kraft]

Another great video, I think it is very telling that even if we limit our measuring stick and only take Russias publicly statet objectives -- they are losing just as much.

10 hours ago, acrashb said:

Here is a lengthy but comprehensive review.  Haven't listened to all of it, but nothing unreasonable in the opening bits:

 

[chuckdyke]

3 hours ago, DMS said:

war propaganda.

How can you talk about war-propaganda? I thought Mr Putin called it 'Special Military Operation'. 

[Jace11]

.

Edited April 9, 2022 by Jace11

[BletchleyGeek]

54 minutes ago, womble said:

So that might be more than nothing, I suppose.

There's that, and there may be a further strenghtening of the resolve to see the Russian Federation decisively defeated. Enabling more action that you can see some countries in the EU reluctant to take.