How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-russo-ukraine-war-phase-two?s=r

Freedman has been relentlessly on point throughout. His latest: 

[sburke]

 

[akd]

14 minutes ago, sburke said:

 

0% chance a single unit was responsible for crimes in Bucha and surrounding area.  In fact, this is a borderline convenient narrative for Russia.

 

[DesertFox]

Excellent!

 

 

[BeondTheGrave]

 

Not the entire thread, but the best hits. That last pair of tweets is especially telling. Russia rushing in Kyiv troops to bolster the Donbass offensive, probably because they dont have tactical superiority. But without refitting those troops? Uncertain outcome for sure. Steve was talking about this the other day, I just dont see how troops could substantially recover in two weeks. Maybe take on some fresh replacements, rebuild command hierarchies, but not really fix anything. So you have boots and bayonets, but no more quality than left Kyiv, and probably worse morale too. 

[chuckdyke]

The way it is going hard to avoid WW3.

 

[Kraft]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It will be interesting to see what the parade is like this year.  Row upon row of shiny zinc coffins is about they best they can muster at the moment.

Steve

With another month to go and a large offensive coming up I'd wager Oryx will hit 900 tanks and 5000 vehicles before the 9th...

Maybe Putin will take a note out of Rommels playbook and let them drive in a circle around the square so people think its endless

Edited April 7, 2022 by Kraft

[c3k]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

Although I think the terms 'left' vs 'right' are inadequate and lead to narrowmindedness, this description is far from accurate or complete.

Anarchists are generally considered / see themselves as extreme left while those that want state enforced rules  for discrimination and oppression of specific groups of people (fascists) are generally seen as extreme right.

FYI large parts of Western Europe have been or are successful social-democracies for a long time. 

To not go off topic too much conceptually left is more about social equality while the right is more about each men for himself. But then there are many more perspectives. Generally the 'extreme' variants of either spectrum are considered to be conceptually similar if implemented in practice by a state. It always leads to autocracy / dictatorship.

Anyway to describe right as freedom and left as control is far to simple besides plain wrong.

 

Lolz...   It is a different perspective. As such it cannot be "plain wrong". And it is one that is much more internally consistent and does not require nuanced dialectic to describe the differences in various forms of government.

As mentioned elsewhere, adding a dimension for state vs. private ownership of means of production is part of that model.

And, as I stated to someone else, I'd love to have a discussion about HOW to describe these issues in another thread. (I do not want to discuss the benefits/drawbacks of the various political philosophies, but just HOW to correctly describe their relationship to one another.)

[danfrodo]

xx

Edited April 7, 2022 by danfrodo
off topic, deleted

[sburke]

36 minutes ago, akd said:

0% chance a single unit was responsible for crimes in Bucha and surrounding area.  In fact, this is a borderline convenient narrative for Russia.

 

oh for sure.  And Bucha is just one location.  I expect unfortunately we will find this is the norm.  In the case of Bucha I understand VDV was operating there as well.  Naming names is part of filing war crimes charges.

[chuckdyke]

Left and Right is just downright archaic. Originated during the reign of Louis the 16th of France. Just make it clear what we support democracy or autocracy.

[LukeFF]

I'd love for this topic to be about the war and not a coffee house academic discussion about the differences between the political Left and Right. 

[Commanderski]

3 hours ago, akd said:

Russians: Let’s setup up our battery here!

Ukrainians: Ni.

I don't know how fast those vehicles can go but after the first shell hit I'd have the peddle to the metal heading back to Russia.

[LongLeftFlank]

10 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

I'd love for this topic to be about the war and not a coffee house academic discussion about the differences between the political Left and Right. 

I am an offender here, but I agree. Although I doubt that's going to change much. Just keep scrolling.....

[akd]

3 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

I don't know how fast those vehicles can go but after the first shell hit I'd have the peddle to the metal heading back to Russia.

Driving in circles is far more effective.  Confuses the incoming shells.

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Thanks Lethaface I couldn't have said it better.  All countries have some socialism.  If you are in US and get medicare and social security benefits, you are on the socialist spectrum.  And if you think that free market capitalism is a good thing, you can have that too.  You can have both socialism and capitalism and no society works well without balancing those.  So using words like socialist, capitalist, can be kinda silly sometimes.  Every country is at least a little socialist.

I think it's all about autocracy.  Hitler was a hitlerist.  Stalin was a stalinist.  It didn't matter what else they called themselves, nazi, fascist, commie, socialist.  What mattered was power of the state encompassed completely by their favorite person (themselves).  Sure, Xi in china is technically a 'commie' -- except that his country is a big totalitarian crony capitalist powerhouse and all he cares about is the power of his oligarchy and himself.  Sometimes these labels are just silly.

 

Definitely...a linear left-right model is a huge oversimplification. I prefer the two-axis model used in the Nolan Chart and Political Compass which scores ideology on a libertarian vs. authoritarian scale and an economic left-right scale. Even that still over-simplifies matters, though, since ideology can be classified along far more than two axes.

Edited April 7, 2022 by G.I. Joe
Edit 1: Off-topic...following original poster's lead and paring down. Edit 2: Realized new version was one sentence.

[G.I. Joe]

17 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

I'd love for this topic to be about the war and not a coffee house academic discussion about the differences between the political Left and Right. 

Agree ...despite my last post having just contributed to that. My apologies. 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Excellent!

 

 

Hannah Arendt to the white courtesy phone. Leave that red one alone though....

So, they're going to bore the enemy to death with Zoom meetings and fleshy, pallid bureaucrats tidying up conference rooms.

You're on mute, comrade.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, BeondTheGrave said:

 

Not the entire thread, but the best hits. That last pair of tweets is especially telling. Russia rushing in Kyiv troops to bolster the Donbass offensive, probably because they dont have tactical superiority. But without refitting those troops? Uncertain outcome for sure. Steve was talking about this the other day, I just dont see how troops could substantially recover in two weeks. Maybe take on some fresh replacements, rebuild command hierarchies, but not really fix anything. So you have boots and bayonets, but no more quality than left Kyiv, and probably worse morale too. 

This!

"Our assessment is that they won’t want to spend too much refitting and resupplying because they have made a very public show of saying that they’re going to prioritize their efforts on the Donbas region" 

There has not yet been a tangible increase in Russian forces in the Donbas region, senior defense official says.

 

Sun Tzu, again...

IV.1. The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.

IV.2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

IV.7. The general who is skilled in defense hides in the most secret recesses of the earth; he who is skilled in attack flashes forth from the topmost heights of heaven.

....

V.19. Thus one who is skillful at keeping the enemy on the move maintains deceitful appearances, according to which the enemy will act. He sacrifices something, that the enemy may snatch at it.

V.20. By holding out baits, he keeps him on the march; then with a body of picked men he lies in wait for him.

Edited April 7, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[chuckdyke]

This is interesting about the objective of Russia. It is similar of the Israeli control of the river Jordan. Ukraine controls the Dnieper River and by damning it ruining the agriculture of the Russian controlled region. 

 

[Fenris]

Just keep loading.  No idea how old or new this footage is - judging by the gear they don't look like regulars...?  The blue tape is usually down south/Mariupol isn't it?

 

[sburke]

37 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hannah Arendt to the white courtesy phone. Leave that red one alone though....

So, they're going to bore the enemy to death with Zoom meetings and fleshy, pallid bureaucrats tidying up conference rooms.

You're on mute, comrade.

actually a good plan!!!  More meetings means less productive!  "meetings, the alternative to work."

[LongLeftFlank]

33 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

This is interesting about the objective of Russia. It is similar of the Israeli control of the river Jordan. Ukraine controls the Dnieper River and by damning it ruining the agriculture of the Russian controlled region. 

[Yet more Russian CT Gish Galloping]

Old агитпроп is still best агитпроп! Forward Soviet! Death to Moose and Squirrel!

 

Edited April 7, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[danfrodo]

31 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

This is interesting about the objective of Russia. It is similar of the Israeli control of the river Jordan. Ukraine controls the Dnieper River and by damning it ruining the agriculture of the Russian controlled region. 

 

I've liked this guy for a while on youtube talking about gear, but he's been hella wrong about war in Ukraine from the start, so skipped this.  Is it worth watching?

[Kinophile]

No.