How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

On 3/28/2024 at 5:01 PM, Battlefront.com said:

You missed the point of my post and went way off track into deep, dark, shark infested waters.  I'll try to pull you back into the boat

My point was that terrorist acts are committed with a specific reaction in mind.  The purpose of the attack, therefore, is to get the desired response.  What we don't know about ISIS-K is what they wanted the Russian government to do.  For example, massive security sweeps and detentions, 24/7 anti-Islamic tirades on Russian TV, widespread vigilante actions, etc.  If that is what they wanted, it doesn't look like they're going to get it.  Compare to Hamas' attacks which were met with exactly the response Hamas was looking for.

Steve

Accepted.

[poesel]

23 hours ago, Kraft said:

Range several hundred kilometers.

Please note the high quality tail fin art.

Wow, this is really cheap - in a good way. They didn't even bother to sink the servos into the hull. I guess aerodynamics are not that important here.

I'm a bit surprised they went for wooden ribs instead of going full foam. Since the ribs are all the same  (usually they are not) they are easy to mass produce. But you still need to assemble all these parts. 

Well, they will know why. Do we know anything about how this thing is controlled?

[Beleg85]

Not to beat jihads and holy wars topic too heavily (there is too much Dune vibes lately), but perhaps worth to check anyway:

Worth to note it is one of first official documents of this level labelling Ukrainians as "Little Russians". The declaration states that the notion of "Little Russians" as a sub-ethnic group of the Russians "should receive legislative codification, becoming an integral part of the Russian legal system." This can be directed only toward religious nuts in Muscovia in revenge for separation of Ukrainian Church or part of larger trend inspired by Kremlin that will start to emerge in this system, of officially abandoning term 'Ukrainians" when in relation to Russians itself. Likely term Ukraine would stay as geographical indicator only, if such change would take place in katsap administration (which for now is dubious, but one never know what magic spells they will start to use there).

Edited March 30 by Beleg85

[Vet 0369]

On 3/28/2024 at 5:43 PM, Haiduk said:

I've read that a pilot, who ejects, gets at least light or even medium spinal trauma and must pass rehabilitation during 3-6 months. I don't know how this information is reliable. 

My knowledge is anecdotal from when I was in an F-4 B Squadron in the Fleet Marine Force, Western Pacific (WESTPAC) in 1970 and 1971. Our pilots had a “club” called the Caterpillar Club. The only way one could become a member was to eject from an aircraft. Every pilot I knew, who was a member, had back issues.

[Vet 0369]

8 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Meanwhile in clown news, brought to you by our good friend David D aka Secret Squirrel.

I sense a new foreign policy doctrine in the making, lets ignore countries MTG can't find on a map.

MTG couldn’t find her way to her office if she didn’t have a driver!

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/29/us/politics/russia-north-korea-nuclear-weapons.html

Why Russia Is Protecting North Korea From Nuclear Monitors

The monitors have provided vivid evidence of how Russia is keeping Pyongyang brimming with fuel and other goods, presumably in return for weapons that Russia can use in Ukraine.

 

Russia at the very least encouraged Hamas, and has benefited greatly from the distraction. Does anybody think Putin wouldn't encourage the North Koreans, with whom he has a much closer relationship? 

Although i guess it is worth pondering if the Russian sanctions busting might reduce pressure on Kim's regime in a way that makes it less likely to gamble. It still bears watching.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

My knowledge is anecdotal from when I was in an F-4 B Squadron in the Fleet Marine Force, Western Pacific (WESTPAC) in 1970 and 1971. Our pilots had a “club” called the Caterpillar Club. The only way one could become a member was to eject from an aircraft. Every pilot I knew, who was a member, had back issues.

IIRC, that's of WW2 RAF origin, and derives from a poem 'Can a butterfly again become a caterpillar?' (author unknown)

A USAF pilot I knew in the 90s was restricted to T38s once the F4s retired, since he was 6'5" (I had no idea that was even allowed), and punching out of any other modern jet would cost him his kneecaps....

He said the worst thing about being groundbound ('Chair Force' lol) was having to give up wearing coveralls (unwritten code). His wife says he walked differently.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

MTG couldn’t find her way to her office if she didn’t have a driver!

Never thought you'd miss Sarah P, right? 

At least she could see Russia from her house.

Plus, those awesome cheekbones (#MCP).

[cesmonkey]

I don't believe any one posted this interview with Oleksandr Syrskyi yet here:

https://www.ukrinform.ua/amp/rubric-ato/3845632-oleksandr-sirskij-golovnovnokomanduvac-zsu.html
 

Quote

The condition for victory over Russia is the unity and strength of Ukraine

According to the Decree of the President of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi was appointed to the position of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces in February of this year. This appointment, as well as subsequent changes in the military leadership, the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Avdiivka, the long offensive of the Russian invaders and the announcement of Ukraine's transition to strategic defense became the objects of close attention, and not only in Ukraine. Among Western allies and partners, alarming thoughts began to be heard that Ukraine is losing positions and capabilities to continue the fight against the enemy. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel-General Syrsky himself, told Ukrinform how justified such assessments are, what the real situation is on the battlefield, and what the new strategy of Ukrainian forces means .

- Oleksandr Stanislavovych, disturbing news continues to arrive from the front. The enemy continues to put pressure on Ukrainian positions, tries to advance on the Kupyansk direction and the Liman, poses threats to Yampol and Siversk. The situation in the Avdiiv direction remains difficult. We know that every step is given to the enemy with great blood, but... What is happening? Does the Armed Forces have the resources and capabilities to stop such an enemy advance?

- The situation at the front is really difficult. But at the front, it is no different. Undoubtedly, every day requires maximum effort from our soldiers and officers. But we not only stand on the defensive, but also move forward in different directions every day. Recently, the number of positions we have regained exceeds the number of lost positions. The enemy did not manage to advance significantly in strategic directions, his territorial gains, if any, are of tactical importance. We are monitoring this situation.

It should be recognized that the current situation in certain directions is tense. The Russian occupiers continue to increase their efforts and have a numerical advantage in terms of personnel. They traditionally do not pay attention to losses and continue to use the tactics of massive assaults. On certain directions, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine repulse several dozen attacks.

The experience of the past months and weeks shows that the enemy has significantly increased the activity of aviation, uses anti-aircraft missiles - guided air bombs that destroy our positions. In addition, the enemy conducts dense artillery and mortar fire. Until a few days ago, the enemy's advantage in terms of ammunition fired was about 6:1.

But we learned to fight not by the amount of ammunition, but by the skill of using the weapons that are available. In addition, we make the most of the advantages of unmanned aircraft. Although the enemy is trying to catch up with us in this effective weapon.

The enemy continues offensive actions on a wide front, tries at any cost to reach the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, to squeeze us on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Zaporizhzhia region.

In certain areas of the front, we managed to equalize the situation with regard to artillery, and this immediately affected the situation as a whole. Our gunners use high-precision ammunition to destroy enemy concentrations even dozens of kilometers from the front line. The enemy not only suffers daily significant losses in manpower and equipment, in particular artillery systems, he can never feel safe anywhere, including in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. This is an important psychological factor. They will not have peace on our land. Never. And every occupier should be aware of this.

Of course, these are statistics, but it is important to know: only in February-March of this year (as of March 26), the enemy lost more than 570 tanks, about 1,430 armored combat vehicles, almost 1,680 artillery systems and 64 air defense systems. At the same time, the Defense Forces of Ukraine keep the main heights and defense areas under control. Our goal is to prevent the loss of our territory, to exhaust the enemy as much as possible, to inflict the greatest possible losses on him, to form and prepare reserves for offensive operations.

It is also very significant that the activity of the enemy in the air was also reduced, of course, thanks to the skill of our air defense units. In just 10 days in February, they shot down 13 enemy aircraft, including two strategically important A50 surveillance and control aircraft.

So we are fine with the skill of the staff. We hope to receive from our partners a larger number of air defense equipment and, most importantly, missiles for them, especially considering that the enemy has switched to the tactics of massive airstrikes against Ukrainian troops, civilian infrastructure, and peaceful cities of Ukraine. We are obliged to protect them.

We are changing tactics at sea as well. Attacks by unmanned drones on enemy ships are so effective that it makes it possible to talk about changes in the strategy of combat operations at sea in general. We are purposefully destroying the Russian Black Sea Fleet. And we will continue to do it. The latest destruction of several ships in Sevastopol is just one more confirmation of this.

- Your appointment took place after the loud and, let's be frank, not entirely understandable resignation from this position of General Valery Zaluzhny. What are these changes, as well as the reformatting of practically the entire military leadership, related to? How were such disturbances perceived in the troops?

- The military has one duty - we do not discuss orders, we carry them out. So if the President of the country, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, had reasons for such a replacement, especially during the active phase of the war, it means that these reasons are valid.

Valery Fedorovych and I worked side by side during the most difficult times since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, and even before. Worked as one team. I wish him success in his new and very responsible position .

I can say that all our knowledge and all the experience gained already during a full-scale war in battles with overwhelming enemy forces will be aimed at increasing the effectiveness of our actions and maximum damage to the enemy's strike groups.

On this basis, we work out the algorithms of the military administration bodies at all levels. It is a matter of detailed, careful planning of the actions of associations, units and units, of course, taking into account the needs of the front. Actually, not only the success of each military operation, but also people's lives depend on the clear work of this vertical, which covers the planning and support of military operations, on the timely supply of the latest weapons and ammunition from our Western partners. Commanders of all levels should remember this, and we constantly remind our allies in the West about it.

Our staffs must know all, without exception, the needs of the front and master the situation in every part of it. In this, the first priority is the qualification of officers belonging to the military administration.

I can confirm that the composition of the General Staff and other military administration bodies will be renewed thanks to combat officers with extensive practical experience of combat operations, which they acquired on the fields of this war.

- What changes will take place on the battlefield after your appointment?

- The situation on the battlefield depends not only on the Commander-in-Chief, as you understand. Modern warfare requires determination and initiative on the ground, right where the fighting takes place. The success of combat operations depends on the officer, sergeant, and soldier who are in the trenches and at strongpoints - they are the ones who carry this huge combat load on their shoulders.

We can define a strategy and coordinate actions, promptly respond to changes in the situation and the needs of the front. At the same time, the philosophy of the use of troops - at least this is my position - should be based on the main formula. The most valuable thing that our Armed Forces have is people. Our task is to protect their lives and at the same time inflict maximum losses on the enemy.

The implementation of this principle requires maintaining a balance between the execution of combat missions and the restoration of military units and units. Our people are heroes, but their strength is not limitless, they also need recovery and rest.

Therefore, the process of rotating military units on the front line has already been launched today , which allows us to fully restore the combat capability of not only equipment, but first of all to ensure rest and recovery of our servicemen.

We need people to ensure this process. That is why I would like every man of military age in Ukraine to realize that Ukraine's survival depends on his will and actions.

So that you understand, this process is not limited only to the activities of TCC. This is a whole complex of issues that includes training people, their proper equipment and provision. Such efforts also include measures for the social protection of servicemen and their family members. It is necessary to worry about how the life of a serviceman develops after release or demobilization. Of course, it is impossible to fulfill all these tasks only by the efforts of the Armed Forces. We see that the state does not stand aside and is already creating mechanisms to solve all these issues.

Ukrainians continue to defend their country, in particular, returning from abroad. We have many volunteers, and this is not an exaggeration. I do not claim that there are no problems, but I emphasize that we are doing everything to solve them.

- Previously, they said that in order to maintain combat capability and ensure the rotation of units and parts of the Armed Forces at the front, it is necessary to mobilize another 500,000 people. How realistic is that number now?

- After reviewing our internal resources and clarifying the combat composition of the Armed Forces, this figure was significantly reduced. We expect that we will have enough people capable of defending the Motherland. It is not only about the mobilized, but also about volunteers.

It should be taken into account that people are not robots. They are exhausted physically and psychologically, especially in the conditions of hostilities. For example, those people who came to the TCC in February 2022 need rest and treatment. Suffice it to mention that the 110th combat brigade was involved in the Avdiiv direction from the beginning of the full-scale invasion. They need to recover and rest, and this is an objective necessity. And there are many such parts.

We are currently reviewing the strength of certain non-combat units based on an audit of their activities. This allowed us to release thousands of servicemen and direct them to combat units.

But at the same time, it is necessary to refrain from extremes. All armies of the world have personnel who do not participate in combat operations, but provide combat units. This is an equally important part of the work. The war we are forced to wage against the Russian invaders is a war of attrition, a war of logistics. Therefore, the importance of the effectiveness of rear units cannot be underestimated. It is about the system of providing the troops with food and ammunition, about repair units, about medical facilities and about many other things. These people contribute to the effectiveness of hostilities.

In particular, I want to emphasize: those citizens who join the army after mobilization do not immediately go to the front. With very special exceptions, for example, when a person already has combat experience, the vast majority of these individuals arrive at training military units and centers. As of February of this year, the number of people undergoing such training was 84 percent of the total number of mobilized. Only after such training can they be sent to resupply military units to restore their combat capability.

- When the Ukrainian troops left Avdiyivka, Russian propaganda shouted about thousands of captured Ukrainians. What really happened there?

- We withdrew our forces from Avdiivka, because the enemy had a significant advantage in the forces and means of assault units. Due to constant bombardment by guided aerial bombs, the integrity of our defense was broken, which gave the enemy the opportunity to gradually advance. The insufficient amount of ammunition for our artillery also played a negative role. This made it impossible to conduct an effective counter-battery fight in such conditions. So, in order to avoid the environment and save people's lives, I decided to leave Avdiivka.

Unfortunately, during these battles, 25 Ukrainian servicemen were captured by the Russians. This is war... Russian propagandists are trying to use various videos with captured Ukrainian soldiers to discredit the Defense Forces of Ukraine, psychological pressure and spreading panic among Ukrainians.

I want to say to these soldiers, if they will hear me, to their families: we have not forgotten anyone and we are doing everything to free these servicemen from enemy captivity. Both the leadership of our state and the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense and the command of the Armed Forces are fully involved in these efforts.

It is also worth remembering that the offensive on Avdiivka resulted in significant losses for the enemy, and this is unlikely to be reported on "Russian" television. Only in the period from October 10, 2023 to February 17, 2024, the Russian invaders lost: 47,186 personnel, 364 tanks, 748 armored fighting vehicles, 248 artillery systems, 5 aircraft in the Avdiiv direction. Since the beginning of the Avdiyiv defense operation, the Ukrainian defense forces have captured 95 Russian invaders in this area.

- From the beginning of the full-scale war, which has been going on for more than two years, you led the defense of Kyiv, led the troops during the liberation of the territory of the Kharkiv region. According to the assessments of a number of Western mass media, the threat of a Russian offensive looms over Kharkiv again. How real is it, in your opinion?

- We cannot ignore any information about the enemy's preparations for offensive actions, so we take all measures to adequately respond to such a possibility. Today, we are carrying out a large complex of works on the fortification equipment of territories and positions, we are installing a complex system of barriers, and we are planning the use of our troops in the event of such actions.

We already have the experience of combat operations in the Kharkiv region, we managed to "calculate" the enemy and liberate a large part of the Kharkiv region. It was then that the large-scale collapse of the Russian front took place. If the Russians go there again, Kharkiv will become a fatal city for them.

But, of course, each military operation is unique in its own way, and simply using its conventional tracing paper in the next situation on the front will not succeed under any circumstances. Modern warfare is a mathematical problem with hundreds of variables in which every component can be crucial.

- I can't help but ask, where were the lines of fortification divided, along which our troops were supposed to withdraw from Avdiyivka?

- I'll start with the main thing. We managed to stop the enemy near Avdiivka, using positions that were equipped during the battle. The main line of fortifications is equipped and placed much further, in the depth of our defense. Currently, the preparation of powerful defense lines is underway on almost all threatening directions. For the leadership of the state and the Armed Forces, for local administrations, etc., the construction of fortification lines and structures is now one of the priorities.

Prepared fortifications save the lives of our soldiers. The construction of an extensive system of engineering and fortification structures is not only the task of the engineering units of the Support Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and military units. Regional military administrations and units of the State Special Transport Service are also involved in this process. This work is ongoing.

- How important is the help for the Armed Forces from our Western allies and partners?

- We are very grateful to our Western allies, NATO countries, the European Union and other partners for their support. Without such support, without the supply of weapons, ammunition, air defense equipment, and heavy equipment, it would be much more difficult for us to fight against an insidious and powerful enemy.

We would be even more grateful if this help came quickly and in sufficient quantity. It is worth admitting: we could not achieve greater success during the Kharkiv Offensive because we did not have enough resources. The lack of resources and the necessary amount of ammunition gave the Russians the opportunity to dig deep into the ground in the South of Ukraine, in the Zaporizhia region, and the assault on these positions, without effective air support, cost us human losses and equipment. The last case is Avdiyivka. We would certainly maintain these positions if we had a sufficient number of anti-aircraft weapons and artillery shells.

This is not a claim, but a statement of fact. I believe that our allies have already realized who they are dealing with in Russia, and would very much like to see our success in the fight against the enemy. We lack weapons, everything else we can do ourselves. We are grateful to our partners for every projectile, for every ton of fuel. But in order to effectively plan operations, we need predictability of such supply.

Now the Defense Forces are carrying out tasks on the entire huge front line, in fact, with a shortage of weapons and ammunition. In these conditions, the transition to strategic defense is a logical decision. But the reverse is just as logical: if the West, as it claims, supplies Ukraine with everything its Armed Forces need, it will make it possible to repel the enemy, no matter how many people Russia mobilizes, and finally end this war with a military victory over the enemy.

But we are not sitting idly by either, but are building up the capabilities of the domestic defense industry. If the Europeans are involved in its development in the volumes they promise, I think we will solve the problem of "shell hunger" over time. Currently, in terms of the number of innovations and own developments of weapons, military equipment, and most importantly, their practical use on the battlefield, Ukraine is among the absolute leaders.

In this context, it is possible to mention the rearming of the artillery units with the domestic 155-mm "Bohdan" gun, with the simultaneous addition of its automatic firing system. Soon, it can be expected, certain samples of Western howitzers and domestic rifled mortars will be produced in Ukraine. This also applies to the development of modern missile weapons and counter-battery systems. Society already knows quite well about the production of drones. So all these measures can provide an operational advantage over the enemy at the front in the near future.

Also a good example is the restoration and overhaul of American-made M777 howitzers. We established the production of some such parts in Ukraine. In particular, during the restoration of each unit of this howitzer, 40 percent of parts and spare parts manufactured for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at domestic enterprises are used. The shoulder of supply, maintenance, repair and recovery has been reduced many times, and the front feels these qualitative changes.

- What is the most important thing for Glavkom Syrskyi today?

- As I already said, now the main thing for us is to save people. "Iron" can be restored, but the people who died cannot be brought back.

There is another priority - the unity of society, the absence of political discord. We must remember the tragic pages of our history. I am sure: Russia will never be able to defeat us on the battlefield as long as Ukrainians maintain unity and strength of spirit. If you waste energy and strength on empty political disputes with each other, this is not even a path to defeat, but to death.

I want every Ukrainian to understand this: Russia denies all of us the right to life. That is why defeat and death are identical. Now it's time again for the country to turn into a strong, united fist. The main task of Ukraine is to preserve unity, this is the main component of our victory.

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[Haiduk]

Initianive group of mothers and wives of servicemen of Russian 21st motor-rifle brigade, participated in assaults of Avdiivka, issued a list of MIAs (probably not completed yet). I counted 231 names from December to March.

Brigade now moved to the rear for rest and replenishment. As wrote Kostianbtyn Mashovets, on the base of this brigade it's planned to deploy new motor-rifle division

 

Edited March 30 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Darwin premium candidate.

Russian soldier avoided drone attack after long cat-and-mouse game, when it hit the ground and didn't explode, but then decided to blow it up by throwing of own rifle on it and then RPG, as result the drone exploded and killed or heavy injured him %) 

 

[Haiduk]

"Magyar" shows that Russians thrown plastic mannequins into the pile (intersting, they are specially made or just looted from clothing stores?) in the forest. They use them as decoys - "Magyar" jokes "Will they put a candles into their a....s so they got thermal signature?" Further "Magyar" shows boats-decoys with theses mannequins, weared in uniform and asks "Oh, they are fairy-tale dolboyobs [completely stupid persons, making idiotic doings and other dolboyebizm - who remember ] - do they really think anybody will buy this?"

 

[FancyCat]

Two important facts from the Washington post interview. Now if the Republicans in the House could figure out how to get out of bed, maybe we could finally send some ATACMS.

Quote

The Washington Post confirms - via an interview with President Zelensky himself - previous reports in the Financial Times that the Biden Administration had "warned against" Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries.

The chaser to this saga is that despite Washington's warnings to Kyiv not to target Russian refineries, the fact that Russia's response to the Ukrainian strikes was "muted" ultimately led the Pentagon to adjust "its analysis on the risk of sending ATACMS".

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Darwin premium candidate.

Russian soldier avoided drone attack after long cat-and-mouse game, when it hit the ground and didn't explode, but then decided to blow it up by throwing of own rifle on it and then RPG, as result the drone exploded and killed or heavy injured him %) 

 

His impulse to make sure the drone wasn't going to get back up again was good, but obviously his method wasn't.  All that rubble around and he throws his rifle?  Why not back up a few meters and shoot it?  Drones are not bullet proof.

I was wondering why he was alone and then in the end it is clear he didn't start out alone.  Looking more carefully I can see two other bodies.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Initianive group of mothers and wives of servicemen of Russian 21st motor-rifle brigade, participated in assaults of Avdiivka, issued a list of MIAs (probably not completed yet). I counted 231 names from December to March.

Brigade now moved to the rear for rest and replenishment. As wrote Kostianbtyn Mashovets, on the base of this brigade it's planned to deploy new motor-rifle division

 

Well, that backs up the other evidence that Russia wiped out entire brigades taking Avdiivka.  231 MIA doesn't include WIA, KIA, and POW.  Yet for a relatively full strength Brigade (~3500) that's about 6% casualties just with the MIA count.  Triple that for KIA (being generous) and you get 25%, then triple that number for WIA and you get pretty close to 75% casualties.  Even if you presume double for WIA (i.e. many WIA left on the field died as MIA) that's still 50%.  Yesh.

Either way, this brigade got cooked.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Russians accidently dropped 11 gliding bombs on own territory within a week, including heavy FAB-1500. Reportedly no one exploded. It's unknown what caused theese droppings - technical failures or, how it assumes lower screeb of miliatry TG channel, UKR may highlight bombers with radars, so pilots, warned about they are can be potential victim of SAM, just frorced to drop the bombs and make intensive evasive maneuvers to avoid potential threat.  

 

Edited March 30 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russians accidently dropped 11 gliding bombs on own territory within a week, including heavy FAB-1500. Reportedly no one exploded. It's unknown what caused theese droppings - technical failures or, how it assumes lower screeb of miliatry TG channel, UKR may highlight bombers with radars, so pilots, warned about they are can be potential victim of SAM, just frorced to drop the bombs and make intensive evasive maneuvers to avoid potential threat.  

 

They have shot down enough planes lately to make the radar warning receiver lighting up an extremely credible threat. When they stop responding to the radar, push a high grade SAM forward.

[cesmonkey]

Dupe - due to mobile phone.

Edited March 30 by cesmonkey
dupe

[cesmonkey]

 

[Carolus]

 

 

 

[sfhand]

My plan is to have this be my only post in this thread... I've known about the thread from day one. I really only have one question about the whole thing.

How can anyone know the truth of the matter?

Yeah, when we invaded Iraq because of WMD's I was one of the ones questioning the decision. I watched in disbelief Colin Powell's address to the UN, the one with the crudely made computer generations of Iraq's supposed mobile WMD labs. Not satellite photos... crudely made computer representations - the lack of no photos was a big tell. I also read all of Hans Blix's report about there being no proof of WMD's and his willingness to keep investigating.

Why was I so skeptical of the US government? I missed the Vietnam draft by 2 years. The Pentagon papers clearly showed those "in command" were lying through their teeth about the state of things. For me, this type of government mendacity erodes trust. Fast forward to Iraq and my saying to a friend during a work break meal as we watched the opening salvo Shock and Awe bombing on TV "I can't believe anyone believes the reasons for this after having gone through Vietnam". My friend's response "Obviously you don't know anyone who lives in New York" (guess where he was from). It was a very enlightening moment about the human condition and yet not enlightening at all about the justifications for the war.

Then there's Russia-gate. You all know it has been thoroughly debunked right? In a court of law no less. See the Durham report. The whole "thing" was plotted by the Clinton campaign. There is also the Inspector General's report (Horowitz) about the FBI, and its head honchos, losing its/their way. When these truths were exposed one NYT reporter commented about the Clinton campaign liars thusly "...they lied and with sanctimony...".

We were told the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation... Trump (who I will never vote for) was called out in a debate with Biden for promoting Russian disinformation by the mainstream media moderator because he mentioned the laptop. The moderator's reasoning: 50 former high ranking intelligence operatives said the laptop bore all the classic hallmarks of a Russian disinformation campaign.

Have you ever wondered why Paul Manafort was tried and convicted for FARA violations while Hunter Biden is given a free pass? Or the fact that Peter Navarro was sentenced to prison for ignoring a congressional subpoena (yanked off an airplane and handcuffed) but Hunter faces no repercussions?

So, we've got the CIA and the FBI running covert ops against the American public in order for form public opinion in their favor. Apparently there is a healthy appetite for wolf attacks these days because no one ever seems to ignore or tire of the boy calling wolf in real life. At this point Regan definitely got it backwards: verify before trusting. 

The essence of a good con is telling the mark what they want to hear. No con can succeed without it.

With this, I am out. I don't expect anyone in this thread to agree with anything I've added to this conversation and I am very much okay with it. I did want to voice my thoughts on the fundamental nature of matter. I hope you all are having a great day/night and enjoying life one day at a time.

 

[Holien]

21 minutes ago, sfhand said:

I've added to this conversation

What's your point? What have you added?

Humans you gotta love them...

[hcrof]

26 minutes ago, sfhand said:

My plan is to have this be my only post in this thread... I've known about the thread from day one. I really only have one question about the whole thing.

How can anyone know the truth of the matter?

Yeah, when we invaded Iraq because of WMD's I was one of the ones questioning the decision. I watched in disbelief Colin Powell's address to the UN, the one with the crudely made computer generations of Iraq's supposed mobile WMD labs. Not satellite photos... crudely made computer representations - the lack of no photos was a big tell. I also read all of Hans Blix's report about there being no proof of WMD's and his willingness to keep investigating.

Why was I so skeptical of the US government? I missed the Vietnam draft by 2 years. The Pentagon papers clearly showed those "in command" were lying through their teeth about the state of things. For me, this type of government mendacity erodes trust. Fast forward to Iraq and my saying to a friend during a work break meal as we watched the opening salvo Shock and Awe bombing on TV "I can't believe anyone believes the reasons for this after having gone through Vietnam". My friend's response "Obviously you don't know anyone who lives in New York" (guess where he was from). It was a very enlightening moment about the human condition and yet not enlightening at all about the justifications for the war.

Then there's Russia-gate. You all know it has been thoroughly debunked right? In a court of law no less. See the Durham report. The whole "thing" was plotted by the Clinton campaign. There is also the Inspector General's report (Horowitz) about the FBI, and its head honchos, losing its/their way. When these truths were exposed one NYT reporter commented about the Clinton campaign liars thusly "...they lied and with sanctimony...".

We were told the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation... Trump (who I will never vote for) was called out in a debate with Biden for promoting Russian disinformation by the mainstream media moderator because he mentioned the laptop. The moderator's reasoning: 50 former high ranking intelligence operatives said the laptop bore all the classic hallmarks of a Russian disinformation campaign.

Have you ever wondered why Paul Manafort was tried and convicted for FARA violations while Hunter Biden is given a free pass? Or the fact that Peter Navarro was sentenced to prison for ignoring a congressional subpoena (yanked off an airplane and handcuffed) but Hunter faces no repercussions?

So, we've got the CIA and the FBI running covert ops against the American public in order for form public opinion in their favor. Apparently there is a healthy appetite for wolf attacks these days because no one ever seems to ignore or tire of the boy calling wolf in real life. At this point Regan definitely got it backwards: verify before trusting. 

The essence of a good con is telling the mark what they want to hear. No con can succeed without it.

With this, I am out. I don't expect anyone in this thread to agree with anything I've added to this conversation and I am very much okay with it. I did want to voice my thoughts on the fundamental nature of matter. I hope you all are having a great day/night and enjoying life one day at a time.

 

Consider that the USA is not the only country in the world. No matter how little you trust your own government how about the governments of most of Europe? 

Even the French and Germans (Evan neutral Switzerland!!), who were very critical of the war in Iraq are fully onboard supporting Ukraine, supplying more aid per capita than the USA. 

That suggests that the war is real and Ukraine is a partner who can be worked with. Remember the Dutch and Germans complaining about corruption during the eurozone crisis? Not so much with Ukraine (although realistically it does exist)

Edited March 30 by hcrof

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41 minutes ago, sfhand said:

My plan is to have this be my only post in this thread... I've known about the thread from day one. I really only have one question about the whole thing.

How can anyone know the truth of the matter?

Have you read the thread from day 1? The amount of open source information here - from all imaginable perspectives - is enormous. Historians will be able to make much more sense of this war than any in history. Would that we had this sort of information for the ancient world! Or the Battle of Midway!