How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

Not sure if this was posted earlier or not. The details of the navies procurement fiascoes is certainly interesting in a train wreck kind of way. The really interesting bit though is that he spends the live five minutes of the video more or less begging for future procurement decisions to be tested in good and competitive simulations before you spend several tens of billions of dollars.

So can we have  a modern game now? Pretty please? Land warfare or the Taiwan straight, I'm flexible. 

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Russians lost another fighter, probably SU-27 (misidentified as SU-35) near Sevastopol. Most probably friendly fire.

 

One more video how it falling into the water. Intersting, this is first Su-27, lost by Russia in this war. More likely this Flanker belonged to 38th Fighter aviation regiment of 27th mixed aviation division, airbase Belbek. Despite more modern Su-30 and Su-35 are on armament, Russia still use Su-27 in quantity 119 jets. Crimean regiment has Su-27P (interceptor), Su-27SM and Su-27UB (combat trainer). These aircrafts mostly maintained CAP over Crimea

 

Edited March 28 by Haiduk

[Erwin]

Well, that was a depressing video. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Well, I don’t know about this. Perhaps the fact that 80 - 90 years ago, more than 6 million of your people were exterminated simply because the were Jews, and for the most part, didn’t resist? Before WW II, Jews and Arabs in Palestine lived and worked together quite peacefully until the “Grand Mufta” began agitating to eliminate the Jews in Palestine. And yes, the British and the UN creating the State of Israel out a sense of guilt for not doing more to stop the extermination of Jews before the war started. Perhaps Israel has decided “never again will we go down without a fight.”

The troubles in Palestine are a family fight.The Jews and Palestinians are all descended from the Canaanites, just some who chose Islam when the Arabs conquered The area, and others who retained Judaism.

You missed the point of my post and went way off track into deep, dark, shark infested waters.  I'll try to pull you back into the boat

My point was that terrorist acts are committed with a specific reaction in mind.  The purpose of the attack, therefore, is to get the desired response.  What we don't know about ISIS-K is what they wanted the Russian government to do.  For example, massive security sweeps and detentions, 24/7 anti-Islamic tirades on Russian TV, widespread vigilante actions, etc.  If that is what they wanted, it doesn't look like they're going to get it.  Compare to Hamas' attacks which were met with exactly the response Hamas was looking for.

Steve

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

The troubles in Palestine are a family fight.

Jeepers, Thanksgiving at your place must be thoroughly unpleasant then.

[Harmon Rabb]

RU Radar go Boom.

Guess this guy is not as bad as I thought he was when I was watching Game of Thrones.

Good reminder of how important civilian pickup trucks and other cheaper innovative solutions are for for the AFU.

 

 

Edited March 28 by Harmon Rabb

[Beleg85]

33 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Well, that was a depressing video. 

 

Yup, knowing that pilot catapulted and survived to fly another day.

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

My point was that terrorist acts are committed with a specific reaction in mind.  The purpose of the attack, therefore, is to get the desired response.  What we don't know about ISIS-K is what they wanted the Russian government to do.  For example, massive security sweeps and detentions, 24/7 anti-Islamic tirades on Russian TV, widespread vigilante actions, etc.  If that is what they wanted, it doesn't look like they're going to get it.  Compare to Hamas' attacks which were met with exactly the response Hamas was looking for.

Steve

Russians seem slowly getting over with this whole issue. Wider effects will be like with Nord-Ost, or slaughter of schoolikds in Bieslan...which is close to null.

Edited March 28 by Beleg85

[JonS]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

One more video how it falling

 

That reminds me of the carrier landing scene from 'Hot Shots!'

 

 

[dan/california]

https://www.amazon.com/Nuclear-War-Scenario-Annie-Jacobsen-ebook/dp/B0CBGWMFSN/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2YWUVD4QVTI8Z&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.Zr6o1rRmHleDimx5fEmVk5oq7ffMqWdcBxCl2KHY4pcJoJVAwq_Xg80DkdJ8QH0WvGwk0FP63u0ywzp_1EZSZYdsfhntyypeXOfdsU2zH1wQumgX9uU6eKPCjKVoef_sXXyYeB75e4Pkk7xFWFJBnGgjbC762G4APfNHnM1W6YpyMaYJx-Cbht8rceQwWNZXGCBTlGd0oMfVEBC_EXz4TG8t4zacQAARPS8uT9bZeXQ.-VSBCq10hQYc9tAYO60dkV4kkN2Bm4wUK-LTQPFSo4s&dib_tag=se&keywords=annie+jacobsen&qid=1711660983&s=digital-text&sprefix=annie+%2Cdigital-text%2C142&sr=1-1

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-lawfare-podcast/id498897343?i=1000650769923

The podcasts is with the author of the book, about the book. The book is about a somewhat contrived scenario that results in a full nuclear exchange. Which is...wait for it...bad! 

The following is pure speculation, and I have no knowledge of the authors motivations beside what she gives in the podcast. Knowingly or otherwise I think this book, and a lot of similar "oh isn't it all horrible stuff" is part of a Russian propaganda campaign to scare the West into giving him Ukraine. What absolutely nobody who is pushing this line will answer though, is what do we do when Putin demands Poland and the Baltics while Xi launches an invasion of Taiwan? Because if shaking the magical nuclear stick works, why would they stop?

[JonS]

16 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

 

 

Cheap-thing-takes-out-expensive-thing is not exactly a fresh hot take. Kipling was writing about that well over a hundred years ago.

https://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/poem/poems_arith.htm

[JonS]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

What absolutely nobody who is pushing this line will answer though, is what do we do when Putin demands Poland and the Baltics while Xi launches an invasion of Taiwan? Because if shaking the magical nuclear stick works, why would they stop?

Well, flip that around - at what point would you prefer a global nuclear conflagration than the alternative?

My partner grew up in part of Soviet Russia which now is not part of Russia. Being part of Russia sucked, absolutely (her father, for a small example, came within a whisker of being 'volunteered' for heroic cleanup duty at Chernobyl), but that's in the rear view mirror now. It wouldn't be though if WWIII had broken out.

[Haiduk]

27 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup, knowing that pilot catapulted and survived to fly another day.

I've read that a pilot, who ejects, gets at least light or even medium spinal trauma and must pass rehabilitation during 3-6 months. I don't know how this information is reliable. 

Edited March 28 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

"Magyar" shows how Russians set riverine mines into Dnipro to interfere maneuvers of our boats among islands south of Kherson. Initilly he shows stupid Russians, who set mines in daylight and blew up themselves by own mine (probably because of safety violation when handling HE), further we can see a mine in the water an UKR drone, trying to pull it up (the mine set up on anchor), but in this case despite the drone could lift the mine up, but it turned out too heavy and drone fell into the water. Next, at 1:15 we can see intercepted video from Russian heavy drone, which carry riveirne mine and drop it in the water. And finally we can see the beginning of the episode at the start of video, where Russians st mines from the boat.

Here "Magyar" shows bomb strike with JDAM/AASM at the building in Kozachi Laheri village on left bank of Kherson oblast, where UAV drone team control post was detected. This is shortened version of video only with a strike, "Magyar" issued 9-minutes video, how they tracks Russians in this building and cars, arrivig there, one cars was hit by FPV. "Magyar" also told in the night UKR heavy drone bomber destroyed the roof of this cottage with thermite ordnance, but Russians kept own presence there.  

 

Edited March 28 by Haiduk

[ASL Veteran]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

You missed the point of my post and went way off track into deep, dark, shark infested waters.  I'll try to pull you back into the boat

My point was that terrorist acts are committed with a specific reaction in mind.  The purpose of the attack, therefore, is to get the desired response.  What we don't know about ISIS-K is what they wanted the Russian government to do.  For example, massive security sweeps and detentions, 24/7 anti-Islamic tirades on Russian TV, widespread vigilante actions, etc.  If that is what they wanted, it doesn't look like they're going to get it.  Compare to Hamas' attacks which were met with exactly the response Hamas was looking for.

Steve

Except that terrorist acts aren't committed with a specific reaction in mind.  Terrorist acts are committed with a specific goal in mind.  The goals of Hamas are not comparable to the goals of ISIS and there is no possible reconciliation between Israel and Hamas.  Hamas doesn't need to create acts of terrorism in order to gain Palestinian recruits.  Polls, for what they are worth, show that Hamas has somewhere upwards of 70 percent favorability to the citizens of Gaza so they don't need to convince anyone.  Everyone in their neighborhood is already signed up.  No, the only people Hamas needs to recruit are non Palestinians to buy what they are selling so that they can continue to attack Israel and convince the international community to condemn Israel for defending itself.  Therefore the goal of Hamas is to attack Israel, claim that Israel is filled with genocidal Nazi colonizers who rape and pillage for entertainment, and hope that eventually either they can remove Israel from the face of the earth themselves, or that the international community will do it for them.  The only way Israel can end the cycle is to completely destroy Hamas and replace them with a government structure that's more amenable to compromise, because if they don't Hamas will just attack again as soon as they are able and we'll be right back where we are again today.  ISIS isn't concerned so much with Israel.  Their goals are more comprehensive.   How does an attack inside Russia advance the goal of the restoration of the caliphate I'm not really sure, but they have launched attacks in Iran recently too and Russia has / had troops in Syria so maybe it's not all that complicated.  I don't want to get this thread sidetracked though and I know how badly this topic can spin out of control so I think I'll just leave it there. 

3. What are Hamas’ aims?

What Hamas plainly seeks is the establishment of a Palestinian state. Where there is doubt is over the territory in which it envisages the establishment of the state, since it initially called for a Palestinian state occupying the West Bank, Gaza and the space now occupied by the state of Israel. In fact, they violently opposed the 1993 Oslo peace accords between the Palestine National Liberation Organisation and the State of Israel. Accordingly, they initially refused to form part of the Palestinian National Authority, which was beginning to gain international –though not unanimous– recognition as the legitimate Palestinian authority and the blueprint for the future Palestinian state.

4. Does Hamas recognise Israel?

Although public statements by Hamas leaders vary, its denial of the legitimacy of the state of Israel has been a constant point of friction in the region.

 

Important doctrines of ISIL include its belief that it represents the restoration of the caliphate of early Islam, and that all Muslims are required to pledge allegiance to it;^[9] that a "defiled" Islam must be purged of apostasy, often with bloody sectarian killings,^[10] that the final Day of Judgment by God is near and will follow the defeat of the army of "Rome" by IS;^[2] that a strict adherence to following the precepts "established by the Prophet Muhammad and his earliest followers" is necessary, surpassing even that of other Salafi-Jihadi groups.^[2]

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Cheap-thing-takes-out-expensive-thing is not exactly a fresh hot take. Kipling was writing about that well over a hundred years ago.

https://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/poem/poems_arith.htm

I think some people still don't quite get how important drones will be for the future of warfare. I'm guessing Euan focused on the dollar figure in his recap of Arthur's thread because money is what most people understand. We are seeing some exciting naval history be made on the Black Sea thanks to drones.

Lets be honest after all this time we are still kinda impressed when we see Ukraine take out expensive RU stuff with cheap drones and disappointed when RU can do the same with expensive Ukrainian stuff. No matter how many times we see it.

 

 

[Kraft]

Range several hundred kilometers.

Please note the high quality tail fin art.

[LongLeftFlank]

Moscow death count 133.

...So ISIS has basically killed the personnel of a VDV rifle company (in the theoretical event of a full mobilisation). Largely military aged males, and likely above the mean for education and patriotic fervour.

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, JonS said:

Well, flip that around - at what point would you prefer a global nuclear conflagration than the alternative?

My partner grew up in part of Soviet Russia which now is not part of Russia. Being part of Russia sucked, absolutely (her father, for a small example, came within a whisker of being 'volunteered' for heroic cleanup duty at Chernobyl), but that's in the rear view mirror now. It wouldn't be though if WWIII had broken out.

Given the ever increasing efficiency of totalitarian repression, I have serious doubts about rolling back any gains Xi and 

 

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

Range several hundred kilometers.

Please note the high quality tail fin art.

Send several hundred of them at every refinery in Russia, and then start on airfields, electrical substations, and train control boxes.

[chrisl]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This video clearly demonstrates the futility of trying to hide once it's clear they know where you are.  Because wherever you go to hide, they'll know that's where you are.  In the case of this video, these guys put themselves into a perfect place to die.  They stood a much better chance of surviving if they kept moving.  At least up to a point, because you can't keep moving forever.  The presumption that you can is the underlying flaw of maneuver warfare.

Steve

It's the modern military version of "you can't outrun motorola", and it's the kind of thing anybody who's watched broadcast TV in Los Angeles is familiar with.  Somebody in a car is trying to get away from police and as soon as the helicopters show up it's over, but they usually drag it out for another couple hours on live TV thinking they can get away.  Followed by a police helicopter and 3-4 news choppers, all with searchlights and Vis/IR cameras.  Replace the helicopters with 2-3 overwatch drones and the squad cars with a half dozen FPV munition drones and it's Ukraine.

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, ASL Veteran said:

Except that terrorist acts aren't committed with a specific reaction in mind.  Terrorist acts are committed with a specific goal in mind. 

Oftentimes the reactions are very predictable and pretty obviously the goal of the attackers.  The Shoe Bomber and the Underwear Bomber are examples of that.  The two guys who got caught trying to blow things up may have thought that they were going to damage something and kill a bunch of people, but whoever set them up wasn't expecting that.  Neither one of them was going to damage anything - they were set up to get caught hiding explosives in ways that would cause the US and much of the world to inflict all sorts of disruption on itself.  Had they actually blown up the aircraft over ocean it's likely that the root cause would have never been found. But by under-arming them and making sure they got caught, they gave the DHS another thing to freak out over and add ineffective disruptions to try to mitigate.  That would have failed the goals of whoever set them up.  The reaction to both of those was entirely predictable and we still disrupt our air travel to try to detect copycats to this day.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, ASL Veteran said:

Except that terrorist acts aren't committed with a specific reaction in mind.  Terrorist acts are committed with a specific goal in mind. 

The specific goal is predicated on the reaction to the action.  So it is one in the same.  Otherwise what you're saying is terrorists are just Underpants Gnomes who say Phase 1 = do attack, Phase 2 = [blank], Phase 3 = goal achieved.  That's illogical.  It is more logical that they work backwards, starting with a goal, figuring out what reaction will further that goal, then determining an attack.  Attack gets response, response leads to goal.

4 hours ago, ASL Veteran said:

The goals of Hamas are not comparable to the goals of ISIS and there is no possible reconciliation between Israel and Hamas.

And two for two complete missing the point reactions to my Hamas comment.  (sigh)

I am not trying to compare ISIS-K to Hamas.  Never even came into my mind.

I never said there is a possibility of reconciliation between Israel and Palestinians now or, in fact, any time in the near future.  Never even came into my mind to suggest that.

What I instead did was compare two recent terrorist attacks and the response of the victim in the context of the terrorists' own concept of a goal.  Forget I mentioned Hamas and Israel.  Generic Attack A the terrorists clearly wanted a specific reaction and the victim provided it to them.  Generic Case B the terrorists clearly wanted a reaction of some sort and it is unclear if the victim provided it.  In Case A the terrorists achieved their goal, Case B it appears they did not.

I do not know what ISIS-K's intended goals for the attack are, but I think it's safe to conclude they didn't just kill those people for the sake of killing some random civilians.  Therefore, they must have had something in mind.  The only logical thing for them to have been seeking is some sort of response from Moscow that would, in their view, further their particular cause.  I don't see how Russia just sitting there, effectively doing nothing, while their population just shrugs was what they were looking for.  Therefore, it is probable that whatever reaction they had hoped to get out of Russia is not what it got.

This is important because groups seeking attention don't like being ignored, especially when they put in the effort to get noticed.  Sure, ISIS-K has a higher profile today than it did two weeks go.  Definite plus for them, but that was likely expected as a side effect of whatever they were looking for.  Therefore, it is a pretty good bet that the ISIS-K leadership is actively plotting another large attack to get what they didn't get from this one.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Oftentimes the reactions are very predictable and pretty obviously the goal of the attackers.  The Shoe Bomber and the Underwear Bomber are examples of that.  The two guys who got caught trying to blow things up may have thought that they were going to damage something and kill a bunch of people, but whoever set them up wasn't expecting that.  Neither one of them was going to damage anything - they were set up to get caught hiding explosives in ways that would cause the US and much of the world to inflict all sorts of disruption on itself.  Had they actually blown up the aircraft over ocean it's likely that the root cause would have never been found. But by under-arming them and making sure they got caught, they gave the DHS another thing to freak out over and add ineffective disruptions to try to mitigate.  That would have failed the goals of whoever set them up.  The reaction to both of those was entirely predictable and we still disrupt our air travel to try to detect copycats to this day.

I agree that is the outcome, but I'm not so sure we can conclude it was the intended outcome.  Sometimes people do things that don't work and accidentally get a better result.  It could very well be some semi-competent terrorists dreamed of taking out an airline and thought their "clever" plans would work, didn't, and instead caused air travel to be More Sucky™ than it previously was.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-doubled-imports-of-an-explosives-ingredientwith-western-help-fd8d18bc
 

Quote

Russia Doubled Imports of an Explosives Ingredient—With Western Help
U.S., German and Taiwanese firms made nitrocellulose that was shipped to Russia, much of it through one Turkish company, despite sanctions.

 

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-doubled-imports-of-an-explosives-ingredientwith-western-help-fd8d18bc
 

 

Seems like it ought to be worth a whole file box of federal indictments.

 

[Kinophile]

Interesting visualization of a propaganda projection process. 

 

Edited March 29 by Kinophile