Holien Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 10 hours ago, ASL Veteran said: . I don't want to get this thread sidetracked though and I know how badly this topic can spin out of control so I think I'll just leave it there. So why do it and then expect no response!!! Defence doesn't include mass murder of innocents. I'll just leave it there... 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 7 hours ago, chrisl said: It's the modern military version of "you can't outrun motorola", and it's the kind of thing anybody who's watched broadcast TV in Los Angeles is familiar with. Somebody in a car is trying to get away from police and as soon as the helicopters show up it's over, but they usually drag it out for another couple hours on live TV thinking they can get away. Followed by a police helicopter and 3-4 news choppers, all with searchlights and Vis/IR cameras. Replace the helicopters with 2-3 overwatch drones and the squad cars with a half dozen FPV munition drones and it's Ukraine. This is an excellent analogy. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: The specific goal is predicated on the reaction to the action. So it is one in the same. Otherwise what you're saying is terrorists are just Underpants Gnomes who say Phase 1 = do attack, Phase 2 = [blank], Phase 3 = goal achieved. That's illogical. It is more logical that they work backwards, starting with a goal, figuring out what reaction will further that goal, then determining an attack. Attack gets response, response leads to goal. Terror groups often operate on some pretty vague or non-linear logic. The fundamentalists are operating largely on faith. That [blank] = God in their minds, so it is pretty hard to see a logical design at times. Very often the “goal” of an attack is any reaction with the hope that it will lead to further opportunities they can jump on. This is really Darwinian warfare - we keep going, and failing, until the opponent makes a mistake we can then evolve into. Broader goals are often very vague and faith based: Allah will give us a Caliphate if we kill enough of them. The actual mechanics of how that Caliphate may actually come into existence are extremely blurry. Hamas was a bit different. Their goals were very likely an Israeli overreaction which would lead to its firm isolation within the region (any talks of Israeli - Saudi rapprochement are dead) with a window for possible widening of the conflict - why the Palestinians keep hoping the rest of the Arab world will ever give a f#ck is beyond me. The opportunity for global isolation, which is effectively occurring, was likely a stretch goal, if they thought of it at all. So behind killing and taking Israeli hostages, which makes the troops feel good, the goal of the Hamas attacks was the reaction, which could then be exploited for political gains. This is the dilemma terrorism projects onto the state and why we label it “asymmetric”. It forces the state to react in order to re-establish certainty, but it can easily do too little or too much. In fact it will very likely do either of those for segments of any population. So the state is thrust into “best of bad” choice sets. This is always good news for a terror group as it opens up the door to opportunity. This is why terrorism would never work within a zombie horde. Zombies can’t get scared and never react outside of “more brains!” A terror attack on zombies will never get a reaction (beyond “more brains”) so it offers little opportunity options space. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ts4EVER Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Hamas lives in Gaza like royalty and in order to justify their rule, they have to a) show that they are actively fighting the Israeli Apartheid regime. b) provoke an overwhelming response with mass casualties. At the same time the Israeli right-wing needs Hamas in order to justify their own existence and aid in the creation of a proto-fascist bonapartist regime. Both feed off each other and the regular outbursts of violence are a piece of political theatre that would frankly be funny if real people didn't get killed. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt Joch Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 15 hours ago, Haiduk said: I've read that a pilot, who ejects, gets at least light or even medium spinal trauma and must pass rehabilitation during 3-6 months. I don't know how this information is reliable. Well that is one of those “it depends” thing. Ejecting from an aircraft is always dangerous and can cause injuries, but not necessarily in all cases. In wartime, a pilot will also be returned to duty quicker even if he has mild injuries. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 (edited) 3 hours ago, The_Capt said: Hamas was a bit different. Their goals were very likely an Israeli overreaction which would lead to its firm isolation within the region (any talks of Israeli - Saudi rapprochement are dead) with a window for possible widening of the conflict - why the Palestinians keep hoping the rest of the Arab world will ever give a f#ck is beyond me. The opportunity for global isolation, which is effectively occurring, was likely a stretch goal, if they thought of it at all. Yup that was probably the cause, naturally remembering there is also strong Iran lead in this as well. Worth to add that ideologically Hamas partly inherited narrations from PLO about Palestinian nation, which are simply incongruent with global jihad that is to smash all nations altogether and turn Palestine into just one province of their dreamed Califate. When IS was at peak of their strength, there were fierce discussion (almost like a debate in Western sense) between certified "scholars" on their official Dabiq newslatter if Hamas is in fact cool or traitors of the Cause.* Something very similar was already happening then with Muslims from Central Asia- they were afraid that pure global jihad will turn into ethnic revenge in case of Tajik, Usbeks and other folks from region. It was always a big problem for Islamic State to control its cells/local influence so they didn't slide into proper resistance movements with jihadi spice on top. *Btw. this journal was hillarious example of early medieval mind in post-modern form, very well edited and available online in perfect English (and several other languages) barely several years ago, it should still be there somewhere if anyone want to check. Imagine The Sun or Life of Stars or similar journal but in jihadi form and without naked woman on last page. They even had something resembling "hot warrior of the month" column with advices how to keep one's hair halal. That plus acute lack of any female in this magaize gave it (without offending anybody) actually strong gay vibes altogether. But hey, it's different world. Meanwhile, official muscovite repressions are rather limited and tailored to family of assailants like in criminal cases: https://www.reuters.com/world/tajikistan-detains-9-people-over-russian-concert-hall-attack-source-2024-03-29/ IS kind-of-official IS Central spokesman Ansari yesterday gave a speech, in which he trolled Russia ("Northern Crusaders") pretty heavily. They clearly push narrative ropes now with Kremlin, fighting to be seen as real perpetrators. Edited March 29 by Beleg85 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Speaking of pickup trucks. One less RU gun. AFU taking out some RU drones, looks like Shaheds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 dammit can we please stop the israel/hamas stuff here? Go start a new thread, which will immediately go wrong and get locked. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 54 minutes ago, danfrodo said: dammit can we please stop the israel/hamas stuff here? Go start a new thread, which will immediately go wrong and get locked. Steve got baited into it this time. I am waiting for him to yell at everyone first. I don't think they can legally lock up this thread; it has a BFC board seat now. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 hour ago, danfrodo said: dammit can we please stop the israel/hamas stuff here? Go start a new thread, which will immediately go wrong and get locked. Yes, please. I made what I thought was a safe reference as a side point to my main point and it seems even that wasn't a good idea. But the discussion of ISIS in the context of Russia, as it relates to this war, is a good topic to keep on discussing. So please, let's keep that going because it's something that many people watching this war aren't talking about, yet it could wind up being decisive (e.g. large internal security crisis). Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 (edited) Reportedly some air versus ground drone combat. Interesting. Tor taken out. RU tank go boom. Edited March 29 by Harmon Rabb 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 5 hours ago, The_Capt said: Terror groups often operate on some pretty vague or non-linear logic. The fundamentalists are operating largely on faith. That [blank] = God in their minds, so it is pretty hard to see a logical design at times. Very often the “goal” of an attack is any reaction with the hope that it will lead to further opportunities they can jump on. This is really Darwinian warfare - we keep going, and failing, until the opponent makes a mistake we can then evolve into. Broader goals are often very vague and faith based: Allah will give us a Caliphate if we kill enough of them. The actual mechanics of how that Caliphate may actually come into existence are extremely blurry. My impression is that a specific terrorist movement has a lot of room within it for a wide range of "logic". The higher up in the organizational food chain you go, the more thought out actions are in relation to the goals of that particular group. Which leads to an individual cutting the head off of a soldier on a bridge in London (non-linear logic, at best) all the way to what we likely saw in Moscow. Which was a carefully crafted concept for furthering the group's goals. Whether it was well thought out is a completely different story, though. Just because there's a plan doesn't mean it's a good one. We do not know what ISIS-K had in mind when they were plotting this attack. My presumption is that they wanted an overreaction of the Russian security apparatus. Why do I think that? Because it's a pretty common one for a terrorist org. The belief being that if the security apparatus overreacts it will make the existing tensions worse, which weakens the enemy and strengthens the cause. The alternative is that ISIS-K did this attack for no reason other than as a PR stunt to announce there's a new kid on the block looking to fight for Islam. While I am SURE that was a big part of this attack, I doubt that was their only one. Which gets me back to the strong likelihood they wanted the Russian security services to freak out and make things worse. And that apparently isn't going to happen. If I'm correct that ISIS-K is disappointed by the result, then logically they will try even harder to get the overreaction they seek. And soon. If I'm correct about that as well, then we should expect another attack in the near future (less than 6 months?). If Russia bites down hard on this future attack, and does overreact, then things could get very interesting for Ukraine. If I were advising ISIS-K I would point out that the Putin regime, and to a large extent the Russian population as a whole, doesn't care about the loss of innocent life. As I quipped the other day, it's just a normal Friday in a brutal regime that has beaten down people's value of life. But blow up Saint Basil's Cathedral... yeah, I think that might get a very different response. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Quote https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/29/opinion/moscow-attack-putin-ukraine.html Putin’s Next Escalation Is Coming More of the the Russians are scary and unstoppable propaganda. I really do wonder how many of these people know what they are doing, and how many are just clueless? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Meanwhile in clown news, brought to you by our good friend David D aka Secret Squirrel. I sense a new foreign policy doctrine in the making, lets ignore countries MTG can't find on a map. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alison Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 54 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: We do not know what ISIS-K had in mind when they were plotting this attack. My presumption is that they wanted an overreaction of the Russian security apparatus. Why do I think that? Because it's a pretty common one for a terrorist org. The belief being that if the security apparatus overreacts it will make the existing tensions worse, which weakens the enemy and strengthens the cause. I suppose overreaction is in the eye of the beholder. The CBC reported just the other day that Russian security forces were making migrants' lives miserable after the attack, for no apparent reason beyond xenophobia/Islamophobia. This is already an overreaction from a western perspective. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-central-asian-migrants-1.7157109 Quote On Wednesday, video surfaced online of Russian authorities detaining a few dozen migrants working at a warehouse near Moscow for the Russian online retail giant Wildberries. The images showed the workers being lined up and led away by police and Russia's national guard. Now, to be fair, cracking down on a few dozen migrant workers here and there in a population of 4 million who are already regularly rounded up and deported to begin with isn't going to win (lose?) hearts and minds, but the full extent of the response won't be felt overnight. Even the US took a month or so to really step things up after 9/11 with PATRIOT Act. I think you're right, though, that terrorism isn't necessarily as effective in a country that is already authoritarian, because people don't have as much freedom to lose anyway. The Chinese government dealt with years of conflict related to Uyghur autonomy (stabbings, bombings etc) until they eventually rolled out the full panopticon and "reeducation" program which apparently has been a roaring success, stamping out terrorism in the country completely. The side-effect is that ethnic Han citizens living 3500km away now also have the privilege of having all their bags X-rayed every time they get on the subway, having their faces scanned and tracked across the city and - during COVID - the full Xinjiang experience of fenced-off communities, checkpoints and "papers, please". And yet, all those crackdowns didn't really trigger a significant public response, just the usual subdued grumbling. Meanwhile the dream of Uyghur autonomy is dead. So you gotta wonder what kind of grand strategy IS-K is playing at here. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 (edited) Syrsky continues saying the right things... Reform is very much on his mind. He seems to have the combat vet's intolerance of REMFs, especially in an existential fight like this one. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3845632-oleksandr-sirskij-golovnovnokomanduvac-zsu.html Quote Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi published an interview with Ukrinform, some theses: - Just in February-March of this year (as of March 26), the enemy lost more than 570 tanks, about 1,430 armored combat vehicles, almost 1,680 artillery systems and 64 air defense systems. - Enemy activity in the air was also reduced thanks to the skill of our air defense units. In just 10 days in February, they shot down 13 enemy aircraft, including two strategically important A50 surveillance and control aircraft. We hope to receive from our partners more air defense systems and, most importantly, missiles for them. - Valery Fedorovich Zaluzhnyi and I worked side by side during the most difficult times since the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion, and even before. We worked as one team. I wish him success in his new and very responsible position. - I can confirm that the composition of the General Staff and other military command and control bodies will be updated with combat officers with extensive practical experience in combat operations, which they acquired on the fields of this war. - Today the process of rotation of military units on the front line has already been launched, which allows us to fully restore the combat effectiveness of not only equipment, but above all to ensure the rest and recovery of our military personnel. To ensure this process we need people. That is why I would like every person of military age in Ukraine to realize that it depends on his will and actions for Ukraine to survive. - Ukrainians continue to defend their country, in particular when returning from abroad. We have a lot of volunteers, and this is not an exaggeration. I am not saying that there are no problems, but I emphasize that we are doing everything to solve them. - We are currently reviewing the strength of certain units not participating in combat operations based on an audit of their activities. This allowed us to release thousands of troops and send them to combat units. - We withdrew our forces from Avdiivka because the enemy had a significant advantage in the forces and means of assault units. Due to constant bombardment by guided aerial bombs, the integrity of our defenses was compromised, which allowed the enemy to gradually advance forward. The insufficient amount of ammunition for our artillery also played a negative role. This did not allow effective counter-battery warfare under such conditions. To avoid encirclement and save people’s lives, I decided to leave Avdiivka. - We cannot ignore any information about the enemy's preparation for offensive actions, so we are taking all measures to adequately respond to such a possibility. Today we are carrying out a large complex of works on fortification equipment of territories and positions. We already have experience in combat operations in the Kharkiv region, we managed to “calculate” the enemy and liberate a significant part of the Kharkiv region. At this time, a large-scale collapse of the Russian front occurred. If the Russians go there again, Kharkiv will become a fatal city for them. - We are very grateful to our Western allies, NATO countries, the European Union and other partners for their support. Without such support, without the supply of weapons, ammunition, air defense systems, and heavy equipment, it would be much more difficult for us to fight an insidious and powerful enemy. The latest case is Avdeevka. We would, of course, maintain these positions if we had a sufficient number, first of all, of air defense systems and artillery shells. This is not a complaint, but a statement of fact. - We can mention the rearmament of artillery units with the domestic 155-mm Bogdan cannon, while simultaneously equipping it with an automatic fire guidance system. Soon, we can expect that some samples of Western howitzers and domestic rifled mortars will be produced in Ukraine. Another good example is the restoration and overhaul of American-made M777 howitzers. We have established production of some of these parts here in Ukraine. In particular, when restoring each unit of this howitzer, 40 percent of the parts and spare parts manufactured for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at domestic enterprises are used. Damn right too. Edited March 29 by Kinophile 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 (edited) And at the polar opposite of the intelligence spectrum from Syrsky: Amazingly, it gets even better. https://news.err.ee/1608969679/slovak-national-arrested-in-russia-after-swimming-across-narva-river Edited March 29 by Kinophile 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Kinophile said: Syrsky continues saying the right things... Reform is very much on his mind. He seems to have the combat vet's intolerance of REMFs, especially in an existential fight like this one. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3845632-oleksandr-sirskij-golovnovnokomanduvac-zsu.html Damn right too. Have to second this, results have not yet been determined, but Syrsky is giving every possible indication that he has the right idea. 1 hour ago, alison said: I suppose overreaction is in the eye of the beholder. The CBC reported just the other day that Russian security forces were making migrants' lives miserable after the attack, for no apparent reason beyond xenophobia/Islamophobia. This is already an overreaction from a western perspective. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-central-asian-migrants-1.7157109 Now, to be fair, cracking down on a few dozen migrant workers here and there in a population of 4 million who are already regularly rounded up and deported to begin with isn't going to win (lose?) hearts and minds, but the full extent of the response won't be felt overnight. Even the US took a month or so to really step things up after 9/11 with PATRIOT Act. I think you're right, though, that terrorism isn't necessarily as effective in a country that is already authoritarian, because people don't have as much freedom to lose anyway. The Chinese government dealt with years of conflict related to Uyghur autonomy (stabbings, bombings etc) until they eventually rolled out the full panopticon and "reeducation" program which apparently has been a roaring success, stamping out terrorism in the country completely. The side-effect is that ethnic Han citizens living 3500km away now also have the privilege of having all their bags X-rayed every time they get on the subway, having their faces scanned and tracked across the city and - during COVID - the full Xinjiang experience of fenced-off communities, checkpoints and "papers, please". And yet, all those crackdowns didn't really trigger a significant public response, just the usual subdued grumbling. Meanwhile the dream of Uyghur autonomy is dead. So you gotta wonder what kind of grand strategy IS-K is playing at here. 20 hours ago, JonS said: Well, flip that around - at what point would you prefer a global nuclear conflagration than the alternative? My partner grew up in part of Soviet Russia which now is not part of Russia. Being part of Russia sucked, absolutely (her father, for a small example, came within a whisker of being 'volunteered' for heroic cleanup duty at Chernobyl), but that's in the rear view mirror now. It wouldn't be though if WWIII had broken out. Alison's post above has helped me clarify the answer I was trying to write to JonS. The the reason that totalitarianism must be opposed even more resolutely, and even if means running risk of a wider war, is that totalitarians are getting better at being totalitarian. Technology has flipped from enabling internal opposition to making it possible to crush it utterly at a much lower cost. If Ukraine falls, it may two or three hundred years before it can break free again, if there is even anything left. Expecting these awful regimes to fail due to their internal contradictions may be more than we can hope for. The West's choice is to fight, or lose, I don't think trying to ignore the problem is going to work. Edited March 29 by dan/california 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Read Dmitri EVERY DAY! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Yes, please. I made what I thought was a safe reference as a side point to my main point and it seems even that wasn't a good idea. But the discussion of ISIS in the context of Russia, as it relates to this war, is a good topic to keep on discussing. So please, let's keep that going because it's something that many people watching this war aren't talking about, yet it could wind up being decisive (e.g. large internal security crisis). Steve ISIS-K getting the sort of reaction it likely wanted. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 (edited) 3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: If I'm correct that ISIS-K is disappointed by the result, then logically they will try even harder to get the overreaction they seek. And soon. If I'm correct about that as well, then we should expect another attack in the near future (less than 6 months?). If Russia bites down hard on this future attack, and does overreact, then things could get very interesting for Ukraine. If I were advising ISIS-K I would point out that the Putin regime, and to a large extent the Russian population as a whole, doesn't care about the loss of innocent life. As I quipped the other day, it's just a normal Friday in a brutal regime that has beaten down people's value of life. But blow up Saint Basil's Cathedral... yeah, I think that might get a very different response. Steve I wouldn't put mu money on that effect, but it is much too early to tell- maybe Kremlin will overreact with time. This war was quite eventful in things that would be difficult to comprehend before- like Russian Legion attacking Russia and Ukrainian drones flying directly over Kremlin and private residences of important muscovites- and so far none changed strategic stance of Russia that much, nor shaked it internally. Definitelly we should watch this space though, even if it will overlap with Middle-Eastern topics a bit. Butterly Effect and all that. Edited March 29 by Beleg85 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Good. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 This night Russians conducted next mass missile strike. Again, main targets were power plants. In this time, except thermal plants, Russians targeted two hydro energy plants in Kaniv, Cherkasy oblast and in Chernisvtsi oblast, on Dnister river. Also substations and power infrastructure were attacked in six oblasts. Kuiv wasn't under attack this time. Russians again hit Burshtynska thermal power plant with Kinzhal missiles as well as Ladyzhynska thermal power plant in Vinnytska oblast. By assesment, these two largest TPPs are taken out at least on six months or maybe even on year. Statistic of launches/interceptions: - 60 Shaheds / 58 shot down - 21 Kh-101 / 17 shot down - 4 Iskander-K cruise missiles / 4 shot down - 3 Kh-47 Kinzhal / no intreceptions - 2 Iskander-M / no interceptions - 9 Kh-59 / 5 shot down Debrises of new upgraded Kh-101 were found after this night. This missile already had two warheads. Main - 450 kg of total weight and secondary in 250 kg of total weight, Secondary warhead has ready-made submunitions of cubic shape. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 (edited) Here is new Russian weapon, which they already used several times - among them two days ago this weapon first time for two years bombed Kahrkiv, One bomb hit the school, the secong hit the ground among residential buildings, causing death of one man and injuring of 16 people. This is UMPB D-30SN. The ordnance, based of "dumb" FAB-250 (100 kg HE). Wings, guidance system and rocket engine, turned it intu gliding bomb-missile, similar analog of western SDB/GLSDB. This sh...t can be launched both with Su-34 or with Smerch/Tornado-S MLRS. Depending on carrier it can fly on 50-90 km. Declared CEP is 5 m. Guidance - inertial/satellite Edited March 29 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 hour ago, Haiduk said: Here is new Russian weapon, which they already used several times - among them two days ago this weapon first time for two years bombed Kahrkiv, One bomb hit the school, the secong hit the ground among residential buildings, causing death of one man and injuring of 16 people. This is UMPB D-30SN. The ordnance, based of "dumb" FAB-250 (100 kg HE). Wings, guidance system and rocket engine, turned it intu gliding bomb-missile, similar analog of western SDB/GLSDB. This sh...t can be launched both with Su-34 or with Smerch/Tornado-S MLRS. Depending on carrier it can fly on 50-90 km. Declared CEP is 5 m. Guidance - inertial/satellite Probably filled with Western chips again... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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