How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

I dont know why the Telegraph didnt use this picture.

[Kraft]

Pavlo Narozhnyi , the founder of "Reaktivna Poshta" and a military expert, gave an interview to the French publication Le Grand Continent.

Quote

Currently, the situation is very difficult. We have to face several problems at the same time. The most important thing is the lack of ammunition for artillery: our fighters have to regulate the use of shells. The total number fired per day is very small, from 2,000 to 3,000. And I'm not talking about 3,000 155-mm shells, that's all calibers together. That's about 600 or 1,000 rounds of 155 mm caliber and maybe 2,000 rounds of other calibers — 152 mm, 122 mm, 120 mm.

 

Another ongoing problem that may soon be resolved is Russia's use of aerial bombs. This vulnerability is directly related to the lack of anti-aircraft systems. Since these are not unguided bombs, they can be launched 70 or even 100 kilometers from the front line. They can hit targets within a radius of 100 meters and can destroy any fortification, any building. Russia drops 50 to 100 such bombs on the front line every day.

 

But it seems that this problem is about to be solved - mysterious anti-aircraft systems appeared on the front line, and we destroyed 15 Russian planes in the first days of March. This is a huge loss for Russia, as it only has about 200 of these aircraft. And each of these Su-34 bombers has two pilots. If you shoot down that plane, it means those pilots are killed or injured. If they eject, they will have spinal injuries and need three to six months to recover.

 

We started using French AASM bombs. These are the same barrage bombs used by the Russians, but they are more modern. They don't just barrage, they have their own engine that gives them a longer range, which means we can hit very deep into the Russian logistics network.

 

Tires are also one of the biggest targets for artillery, as the roads near the front line are littered with the small remains of destroyed equipment, as well as debris that can damage the tires. In addition, Russia is constantly planting small "petal" mines that are powerful enough to tear off a person's leg or damage the tire of a very large truck. Therefore, our organization purchases mobile stations so that units can repair and replace tires directly in the field. Only one such station costs 30 thousand dollars. It's not enough. Because on the front line, if Caesar's cannon loses a few tires and can no longer move, it becomes a very easy target.

 

On whether kamikaze drones (in particular FPV) can compensate for artillery.

 

The howitzer commander can fire 3-4 shells per minute, which is very fast compared to FPV, and artillery shells are not amenable to electronic warfare. Not to mention the power: if you are trying to destroy large fortifications, concrete bunkers, a drone with a kilogram of explosives will do nothing. Dozens, if not hundreds, of artillery shells should be used on each of these fortifications.

 

We are committed to providing artillery units with decoy howitzers that are manufactured here in Ukraine. They are made of wood, cost $800 each, and the Russians have to be very precise to destroy them. "Lancet" is not a very accurate weapon, it usually hits one to three meters within the radius of the decoy howitzer. In this case, the soldiers smear the willows with paint and move the wooden howitzer to another position. Given that the Lancet costs about $40,000, this makes sense from an economic point of view. For example, only one of these decoy howitzers was targeted by 12 Lancets.

We built cages for the towed howitzers, and the soldiers have special radio equipment that can detect enemy drones. When the drone is about five kilometers away, it starts making a very loud sound like a siren, and the gunners have to stay away from the howitzers because they won't have time to move the gun before the drone arrives. The Lancet will aim at the howitzer, but it is covered by this cage, and the drone's explosive charge is not powerful enough to penetrate the cage. After an attack, gunners usually need to do some repairs, such as repairing the gun's hydraulics or replacing tires, but the gun itself is usually kept in good condition.

 

Both sides use drones. One of Russia's most advanced artillery systems, the Msta-S M2, has a special digital system that allows it to send drone coordinates directly to the artillery system. But most of them are not equipped with a digital system - and we destroyed most of these self-propelled guns because we get excellent results in counter-battery fire.

 

The Russian army still uses mainly towed artillery, which is outdated and has no electronics, which is a big difference between them and us. We have special command centers with live broadcast from drones. And, of course, we have Western artillery. It is more accurate, more mobile, and more powerful. A 155-mm Western shell is worth a 200-mm Russian one.

 

Speaking more generally, the main problem of our army is insufficient flexibility. Let me give you an example: let's say you are an officer in a unit and your truck breaks down. You must submit a request to the Department of Defense to repair or replace the truck, and this request can take up to two months to process. The guys know they can't wait that long, so they buy parts out of their own pockets.

 

Ukrainian charitable organizations spend huge amounts of money to support the army - there are statistics published by the National Bank: the largest organizations collected about 20 billion hryvnias - approximately 500 million dollars. No one knows the numbers collected by smaller organizations, but overall it is a significant amount.

 

Compared to the budget of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine - about 35 billion dollars - the funds collected by charitable organizations do not seem so significant. But the main advantage of such organizations is their efficiency. They can quickly make decisions, buy equipment that is not registered with the Ministry of Defense, and transport it to the front line in a very short time. Speed and flexibility are the main advantages of such organizations. If a gunnery officer wants to get, say, a weather station, he can't just go to a store and buy one, he has to go through a special bureaucratic process. Or he can call me and say he needs a weather station.

 

We have a "Bohdana", a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer, similar to a "Caesar", a very good gun. We produce six a month, which is a good figure. But we can't actually produce artillery shells, and that's a big problem. I don't have the numbers because they are classified. The only thing is that it was provided by the company "Ukrainian armored vehicles", which says that they produce about 20,000 mortar shells per month. But there is a big difference between mortars and 155 mm shells. You can use inferior steel for mortar rounds, but it doesn't work with larger calibers: the pressure in the barrel is so high that if you use bad steel, the projectile will explode inside the gun. There are also problems with the supply of gunpowder, TNT... And this is not only a problem of production in Ukraine, it is faced by everyone in the world.

 

If the financial and military support of the West stops?

 

We will fall apart, that's for sure. It's only a matter of time. We cannot produce enough here in Ukraine: it is impossible to build big factories, we do not have enough money because we have lost about 30% of our economy, and we spend almost 100% of our income on the army, on salaries, to buy fuel, food for a million soldiers.

 

Edited March 28 by Kraft

[LongLeftFlank]

Damned if ya do and....

U.S. Secretly Alerted Iran Ahead of Islamic State Terrorist Attack (WSJ Jan 2024)

[LongLeftFlank]

37 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Pavlo Narozhnyi , the founder of "Reaktivna Poshta" and a military expert, gave an interview to the French publication Le Grand Continent.

 

This is outstanding, don't miss it....

[zinz]

https://harpers.org/archive/2024/03/the-pentagons-silicon-valley-problem-andrew-cockburn/

I think many here also ride the Ai hipe train. Might be an interesting read @The_Capt

[akd]

54 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Damned if ya do and....

U.S. Secretly Alerted Iran Ahead of Islamic State Terrorist Attack (WSJ Jan 2024)

I hope our duty to warn policy has some sort of provision for being blamed for the act after warning that removes the duty to warn in the future.

[dan/california]

27 minutes ago, zinz said:

https://harpers.org/archive/2024/03/the-pentagons-silicon-valley-problem-andrew-cockburn/

I think many here also ride the Ai hipe train. Might be an interesting read @The_Capt

This article was not exactly convincing. It detailed Pentagon procurement disasters going back decades. All but dismissed the way drones have utterly dominated the war in Ukraine, and did not even mention the vast U.S./NATO ISR complex and deep strike systems that represent hugely successful Pentagon programs. It is just an anti war screed written by someone stuck in the worst of 1970s this is all a racket propaganda. 

 

Edited March 28 by dan/california

[The_Capt]

57 minutes ago, zinz said:

https://harpers.org/archive/2024/03/the-pentagons-silicon-valley-problem-andrew-cockburn/

I think many here also ride the Ai hipe train. Might be an interesting read @The_Capt

The fact that the US Military has had multiple expensive failures is not really news.  They (and to a lesser extent all western nations) lean towards very large centralized “God Projects” that aim to solve a lot of very big problems all at once.  Invariably the systems fail to account for somethings and result in failures.  For example, the article never outlines how the IDF AI failed - was it the AI, whoever programmed the AI or who was monitoring the AI reporting?

The article appears to be cherry picking high profile failures as “wasted money” as opposed to really outlining where AI in military application stands.  Big military, like big government is an easy target for these failures.  Of course when the military stops taking risks and tries to play it safe, opponents then cry “Luddite” and “risk adverse” - damned if they do..etc.

Regardless, the battlefield in Ukraine is not only highly charged with cheap AI/forward processing in all of those FPVs - it is illuminated by AI empowered C4ISR, and it is becoming clear that it is having a significant effect.  We see evidence of that effect almost daily in the “dig, disperse or run” dynamic that has emerged in this war.

That all said, AI is here to stay.  I suspect that cheap and many lower per level AI creating precision is a major way ahead.  Interconnected AI empowered C4ISR backbones have been proven as decisive in linking target to shooters.  When combined with AI empowered precision and C4 ISR we get a war where a nation that was military spending 1/10 of the nation that attacked it, stopped that attacker cold in their tracks, pushed them back and continues to hold them back.

We are way past “hype”, the concept has been proven.  Now we play scramble to try and figure out just how far this goes- is it just a flash, or a major shift.  AI for predictive analytics, especially in the human space, is likely still over the next hill.  AI that can assist in processing Petabytes of data and distilling them into targeting info; guide an explosive onto a target with 80-90% Pk rates, and; support kill chains/webs to a point that conventional mass concepts break - is already upon us.  I have been hearing the “What RMA?  For a long time now.  The reality is that we have been in one since the late 80s.  We are now just seeing major shifts that impact the fabric of warfare emerge.  All those “failures” - and there were many- led directly to what we are seeing unfold on the ground in Ukraine.

AI on the battlefield is hype…until isn’t, and becomes reality.  

Edited March 28 by The_Capt

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

It is just an anti war screed written by someone stuck in the worst of 1970s this is all a racket propaganda. 

 

OK, different Cockburn, but same ideology lol. Pretty sure Andrew's a tankie too....

In uni, we used to call these guys the 'Sandalistas'

Edited March 28 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

In uni, we used to call these guys the 'Sandalistas'

Stealing that!

[cesmonkey]

Interesting article:

 

[cesmonkey]

A few articles reporting on a speech:

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/03/future-not-bright-towed-artillery-army-general-says/395289/

Quote

“I personally believe that we have witnessed the end of the effectiveness of towed artillery,” Rainey said here at the AUSA Global Force conference. “The future is not bright for towed artillery.”

The Army operates towed artillery, which is carted to firing positions by Army vehicles, and self-propelled artillery, which can maneuver to positions on its own.

Future artillery systems must “continuously move,” with “no displacement” time, Rainey said, referring to the time it takes a gun-crew to move a cannon from its firing position.

https://breakingdefense.com/2024/03/towed-artillery-has-reached-end-of-the-effectiveness-army-four-star-declares/
 

Quote

Rainey, and other Army leaders, have been working on the tactical fires study that grapples with just what mix of artillery capabilities the future arsenal needs. While the four-star general did not provide an in-depth readout of all the options and recommendations included in that document, an ample number of towed cannons appears to be out.

What’s in, then? Rainey called out the desire to build and field autonomous, robotic cannons that soldiers and special operators can use for entry operations, and, for now, the service “is not wed to any caliber.”

 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Interesting article:

 

So this is where “AI hype” has led us. Note: this is using the broadest definition of AI.  Many would simply call it non-human processing power.  The combination of ISR, communication and precision has been the driver of this current “tactical crisis” - which has resulted in operational stalemate, strategic/political anxiety and industrial strain.

What I do not know is how deep this will go.  Can it be solved in this war?  Or is this enduring new reality?  My best guess is that more weaponized AI in the form of a forward unmanned envelop is the answer, but that is not proven.  We need to really see proof that “mass precision beats everything”.

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So this is where “AI hype” has led us. Note: this is using the broadest definition of AI.  Many would simply call it non-human processing power.  The combination of ISR, communication and precision has been the driver of this current “tactical crisis” - which has resulted in operational stalemate, strategic/political anxiety and industrial strain.

What I do not know is how deep this will go.  Can it be solved in this war?  Or is this enduring new reality?  My best guess is that more weaponized AI in the form of a forward unmanned envelop is the answer, but that is not proven.  We need to really see proof that “mass precision beats everything”.

I wonder though, How does massed precision beat opposing massed precision?

Faster Detection, Analysis, Fires, Observation loop? 

If feels that if any one part of that is faster than the enemy's then their advantage can propagate across all four, through attrition, scale and pace of events, until the enemy compensates. Do it fast enough and the enemy's older formatting becomes a critical weakness. Obviously this is a primary nature of warfare already but the pace and rapidity of scale effects across multiple domains simultaneously is something different. 

Not looking for a solve, more observation/discussion of potentials. 

Edited March 28 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

“mass precision beats everything”.

Oh there is no question about that. It is exactly what that mass consists of that is in question. To put it another way, how close to the FEBA can a dog sized robot survive, how close can soldier survive, how close can a manned vehicle survive, and so on. Because the answer has a a lot to to with what that mass needs to consists of. 

Then there is the little problem that the answers to these questions might be changing so fast nobody can afford to keep up.

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So this is where “AI hype” has led us. Note: this is using the broadest definition of AI.  Many would simply call it non-human processing power.  The combination of ISR, communication and precision has been the driver of this current “tactical crisis” - which has resulted in operational stalemate, strategic/political anxiety and industrial strain.

What I do not know is how deep this will go.  Can it be solved in this war?  Or is this enduring new reality?  My best guess is that more weaponized AI in the form of a forward unmanned envelop is the answer, but that is not proven.  We need to really see proof that “mass precision beats everything”.

Most of the people I know who do this stuff tend to call it "Machine Learning" rather than AI.  It helps avoid getting caught in the AGI hype and is more accurate.

Precision mass will beat dumb mass and leave less of a mess (in every respect) to clean up. Star Trek covered this - the endpoint came to basically rolling dice and then each side would send the number rolled into the people shredder.  Leading eventually to the better solution of "just don't get into it"

[dan/california]

 

[Beleg85]

Russians lost another fighter, probably SU-27 (misidentified as SU-35) near Sevastopol. Most probably friendly fire.

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Russians lost another fighter, probably SU-27 (misidentified as SU-35) near Sevastopol. Most probably friendly fire.

 

Which answers the old question of "what air defenses doing?"  The answer is "missing Storm Shadows, but hitting friendly aircraft"

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

This video clearly demonstrates the futility of trying to hide once it's clear they know where you are.  Because wherever you go to hide, they'll know that's where you are.  In the case of this video, these guys put themselves into a perfect place to die.  They stood a much better chance of surviving if they kept moving.  At least up to a point, because you can't keep moving forever.  The presumption that you can is the underlying flaw of maneuver warfare.

Steve

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, chrisl said:

Most of the people I know who do this stuff tend to call it "Machine Learning" rather than AI.  It helps avoid getting caught in the AGI hype and is more accurate.

Precision mass will beat dumb mass and leave less of a mess (in every respect) to clean up. Star Trek covered this - the endpoint came to basically rolling dice and then each side would send the number rolled into the people shredder.  Leading eventually to the better solution of "just don't get into it"

I try not to get pulled into the ML/AI debate, which can get pretty heated.  It is all non-human processing to me.

I heard John Arquilla express the same Endpoint scenario - AI becomes so accurate that we do not need to actually conduct the war.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This video clearly demonstrates the futility of trying to hide once it's clear they know where you are.  Because wherever you go to hide, they'll know that's where you are.  In the case of this video, these guys put themselves into a perfect place to die.  They stood a much better chance of surviving if they kept moving.  At least up to a point, because you can't keep moving forever.  The presumption that you can is the underlying flaw of maneuver warfare.

Steve

The presumption of doing much of anything is that they don't have enough drones to kill us all. It usually seems to be a bad assumption. And since pretty much every tech trend seems to makes drones better faster than it makes drone defense better, this thing is going nowhere very fast. If one side could actually break that paradigm they could probably win a major operational level victory in a week, but the only thing I see evidence for is better drones, and artillery being directed by better drones, and mines being delivered by better drones, and mines that ARE  better drones. Until there is actual proof to the contrary...

[Vet 0369]

On 3/27/2024 at 11:10 AM, Battlefront.com said:

 

Think of Gaza.  Hamas attacked Israel with the obvious probability that the there would be an overwhelming and disproportionate military response.  As Hamas is a nihilistic cult, this is the sort of thing they likely wanted because it would (in their minds) get more Palestinians to join their cause.  But what if Israel instead said "you know what, we're not going to do that.  Instead, we're going to sit down and honestly try to figure out a better way to live together".  For sure this is not what Hamas would want and if Israel had done that then they'd probably immediately launch another attack.  Fortunately for Hamas and Iran, and unfortunately for everybody else, Israel did exactly what was expected of them.

 

Well, I don’t know about this. Perhaps the fact that 80 - 90 years ago, more than 6 million of your people were exterminated simply because the were Jews, and for the most part, didn’t resist? Before WW II, Jews and Arabs in Palestine lived and worked together quite peacefully until the “Grand Mufta” began agitating to eliminate the Jews in Palestine. And yes, the British and the UN creating the State of Israel out a sense of guilt for not doing more to stop the extermination of Jews before the war started. Perhaps Israel has decided “never again will we go down without a fight.”

The troubles in Palestine are a family fight.The Jews and Palestinians are all descended from the Canaanites, just some who chose Islam when the Arabs conquered The area, and others who retained Judaism.

[Tux]

Never mind.

Edited March 28 by Tux
Off topic.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Before WW II, Jews and Arabs in Palestine lived and worked together quite peacefully until the “Grand Mufta” began agitating to eliminate the Jews in Palestine. 

Not so sure that characterization is correct.

Intercommunal conflict in Mandatory Palestine - Wikipedia

Quote

After the Young Turk Revolution in 1908, Arab nationalism grew rapidly in the area and most Arab nationalists regarded Zionism as a threat, although a minority perceived Zionism as providing a path to modernity.[10] According to C. D. Smith, this was due to the emergence of Labour Zionism, which openly opposed Jewish employment of Arabs, condemned leaving Arab peasants on land held by Jews, and aimed at a separate Jewish entity in Palestine. Since these issues were discussed in the Jewish press, they also became known to Palestinian Arabs, especially after a Palestinian Arab press had appeared. The two most anti-Zionist newspapers Al-Karmil, founded in 1908 in Haifa, and Filastin, founded in 1911 in Jaffa, were run by Orthodox Christians. In the Ottoman parliament in Istanbul, Palestinian representatives called for greater Ottoman vigilance against Zionism

Problem is when you have an increasing influx of folks coming and an ensuing contest for land ownership etc, eventually you are going to have conflict.  The whole situation is really tragic.

Anyway off topic for here.