How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

US support is the Achilles heel of Ukraines war effort. Who will they rely on after that? Scholz and his successor ilk? Yer havin a laff,  guvnor. NATO doesn't control spending or decide support. It's a function of the participant democracies,  and while it's lovely that Denmark and others are throwing everything in,  they have limited arsenals, production and capabilities. UK and Poland are critical and I doubt will budge, but is that enough? Every barrel has a bottom.

The support given so far has resulted in UKR holding the RUS, but they are not defeated and it'll take minimum two years at current levels of US support. 

Drop that level to what DT et al have talked about and where does UKR stand? 

I'm not on the Omg RUS is Overpowering.  But UKR war effort is highly vulnerable to political whims in a way that RUS is not.

They can fight like maniacs all they want but if there is insufficient or unstable resupply of high tech weaponry and ISR then frankly, they're ****ed.

That resupply occupies Zelensky etcs every waking hour. 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Kinophile

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

US support is the Achilles heel of Ukraines war effort. Who will they rely on after that? Scholz and his successor ilk? Yer havin a laff,  guvnor. NATO doesn't control spending on support. 

The support given so far has resulted in UKR holding the RUS, but they are not defeated and it'll take minimum two years at current levels of US support. 

Drop that level to what DT et al have talked about and where does UKR stand? 

I'm not on the Omg RUS is Overpowering.  But UKR war effort is highly vulnerable to political whims in a way that RUS is not.

They can fight like maniacs all they want, but if there is insufficient or unstable resupply of high tech weaponry then frankly, they're ****ed.

And that resupply occupies Zelensky etcs every waking hour. 

Hey look, peace on Ukraine needs support.  Entirely onboard with that for so many good reasons.  Right now I am actually more concerned with the reconstruction support than warfighting.

However, militarily Ukraine is not on the raggedy edge...they are freakin attacking and sustaining that offensive for months.  This is not a sign of a military machine that is going to collapse next Tues.  If the UA switched to defence, they could hold out for years on very little.  Especially considering that Russia is a complete mess militarily. 

Does anyone honestly think the RA could somehow re-invade the North and take Kyiv at this point? US funding levels or no?  In fact if they tried, it would probably re-activate US support.

US support is the Achilles heel of Ukraine offensive war effort.  The UA held off the best the RA had back in Mar 22 with a fraction, of a fraction of what they have been given to date.  The only thing that could seriously risk the UA competitive military advantage is US C4ISR support and the US president would have to actively order that shut off.  Even that might not do it as Ukraine has built their own JADC2 architecture and still has other support coming in from other nations.  As to defence of Ukraine, you do know that landmines work for Ukrainians too?  They could create murder fields with what they already have, even if the RA could still string together an operational offensive.

Now if we do not fund Ukrainian reconstruction, we are totally screwed as we will definitely lose what happens next.  If we fail to support Ukraine to the point they cannot even defend themselves, well then this entire discussion is a moot point because the political landscape will have changed fundamentally, and not just in the US.

Should we support Ukraine to the hilt, absolutely.  But if the party does end, it does not mean Russia "won" by any stretch.  This is the major pitfall of the "Victory means the pre-2014 border or nothing" narrative. No, victory through denial works pretty well too, especially if it means you get to stay an independent nation.  We not only need to be ready to accept that but then double down and make sure Ukraine can rebuild itself to the point where its defence is not reliant on western political whims.

Edited October 10, 2023 by The_Capt

[dan/california]

You have to watch the video.

[Kinophile]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Does anyone honestly think the RA could somehow re-invade the North and take Kyiv at this point? US funding levels or no?  In fact if they tried, it would probably re-activate US support.

US support is the Achilles heel of Ukraine offensive war effort.  

Copy.  That's accurate to my line of thought and gives a better clarity, thank you. 

They can certainly hold their own defense and I'd suspect a "Zaluzhny Line" would be orders of magnitude more lethal than Surovikins standard approach. Witness how the Andriivka etc is still held by ZSU, then format that through ZSU, v.2024. 

I guess it'll come down to Crimea,  as always. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I'm not on the Omg RUS is Overpowering.  But UKR war effort is highly vulnerable to political whims in a way that RUS is not.

This is true.  Which is one reason why there's a renewed effort to set up military production in Ukraine.  It's happened a little here and there since the war started, but it seems finally to be getting kicked into a higher gear.

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

They can fight like maniacs all they want, but if there is insufficient or unstable resupply of high tech weaponry then frankly, they're ****ed.

Current high intensity war?  Probably.  Remember, Ukraine is burning through Western aid as fast as it arrives because it is engaged in offensive warfare.  [Edit - damn, The_Capt ninj'd me].  On the defensive it's a whole different ballgame.  Ukraine largely defeated Russia's war aims on its own AND at a time when it was way more powerful than it is today.  Since then Russia has shown absolutely no improvements in its ability to wage offensive operations.  Not because Ukraine has Javelins and HIMARS, but because Russia is fielding barely trained forces that have difficulty operating effectively even at the platoon level.

Aside from that, let's keep in mind a theme that's been running through this war... it doesn't take much to disrupt a large conventional force if you have a few basic ingredients.  Ukraine has those in large enough quantities to keep this war going for quite a long time.

OK, so let's say that the removal of US military and economic aid makes Ukraine decide to "surrender" to Russia.  Does that mean Russia wins?  No.

The price Russia has paid for such a "victory" might feel good from a nationalistic perspective, but the balance sheet shows this to be an unmitigated disaster.  And when you're a nation obsessed with greatness, the balance sheet is way more relevant than feel-good propaganda.  On top of that, long term it is unlikely to get better because Russia is already shunned by the bulk of the world and as it engages in systematic genocide in the territories it occupies it will only get worse.  In fact, the harder Russia pushes to "liberate" Ukraine from its own people and culture, the more likely the war will go hot again in some way.  Look at the damage Hamas can do from a postage stamp sized piece of territory supposedly cut off from foreign aid.

Russia "winning" this war presents endless scenarios for the Russian Empire 3.0 to fail.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

You have to watch the video.

So much to say about this short clip.  One of which is that they'll never get the spent casing out, so this was a one time "fix".

Steve

[mosuri]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://yle.fi/a/74-20054483

 

By early information, likely an attack on Estonia-Finland gas pipeline yesterday. 

 

A data link was also severed in the vicinity. Electric transmission links are ok (so far)

Not very disruptive in isolation, but repairs will take time, and who's to say this was the only "whoopsie by drunken captain" or whatever Russia's excuse will be (after vehemently denying all involvement, of course)

[Butschi]

34 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

US support is the Achilles heel of Ukraines war effort. Who will they rely on after that? Scholz and his successor ilk? Yer havin a laff,  guvnor. NATO doesn't control spending or decide support. It's a function of the participant democracies,  and while it's lovely that Denmark and others are throwing everything in,  they have limited arsenals, production and capabilities. UK and Poland are critical and I doubt will budge, but is that enough? Every barrel has a bottom.

If you go by raw numbers than the EU has committed nearly twice as much as the US, half of which comes from Germany under Scholz. What we can't provide is lots of military hardware, I guess, because there isn't much mothballed stuff left and... well there isn't much any stuff left. Also, Ukraine will have to live with the fact that they won't get every system they want. But that isn't too different from the US. The good thing about EU burocracy is that it works both ways. You can't ramp up anything fast but you also can't do the opposite.

Now, whether all that would be enough... who knows?

[Kinophile]

Yeah, @Butschi, there's certainly now an inbuilt inertia to the momentum of support. While EU has given a lot, would it be as much without, Tbh, Biden?

Still, @The_Capts point stands by itself, that a  defensive posture is a sword which cuts both ways. Bakhmut,  Kremina, Etc all prove that Ukraine can defend itself.

My worry is that Putin is 100% commited,  but the level of Western support is variable in time,  quantity and geography. 

As a film 1AD I hate uncertain variables that are subject to other people's whims! Give me the wobblies,  they do. 

[The_Capt]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

So much to say about this short clip.  One of which is that they'll never get the spent casing out, so this was a one time "fix".

Steve

The RA has clearly run out of grease.

[Butschi]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

While EU has given a lot, would it be as much without, Tbh, Biden?

Hm. Hard to tell. Worth in €, I'd say yes. MBTs and IFVs (apart from ex-Soviet equipment), no. Then again, if now Trump came around and told the world how stupid it is to spend good money on Ukraine instead of building a nice wall then we might feel compelled to give a little extra just because.

13 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

As a film 1AD I hate uncertain variables that are subject to other people's whims!

You'd have to be deeply into the M-part in S&M to like being dependent on factors you can't control...

[Astrophel]

25 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Yeah, @Butschi, there's certainly now an inbuilt inertia to the momentum of support. While EU has given a lot, would it be as much without, Tbh, Biden?

Still, @The_Capts point stands by itself, that a  defensive posture is a sword which cuts both ways. Bakhmut,  Kremina, Etc all prove that Ukraine can defend itself.

My worry is that Putin is 100% commited,  but the level of Western support is variable in time,  quantity and geography. 

As a film 1AD I hate uncertain variables that are subject to other people's whims! Give me the wobblies,  they do. 

Few points in reaction to your post and several others:

1) European support for Ukraine is instinctive and not diminishing.  There are hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian children being educated in European schools - voluntarily - for 20 months already.  They even go "home" on vacation this summer while their European school was out.  Now they are back and learning hard.  The long war Putin has engineered with his mines and trenches and bloody sacrifices is working in fact long term against the russian interests. 

2) When Ukraine wins Europe will be there with reconstruction and investment - this is where EU at least is best in class.

3) Militarily we all need USA, as we have for 70 years.  Personally I doubt that USA will wobble on support for Ukraine.  If anything the current talk in USA reflects a trap being set for the Republican Party and also an echo of the assumption several months ago that a Ukrainian victory was going to be like a walk in the park.  Support for Ukraine is a wedge issue that might divide and destroy this current iteration of the GOP.  Every Republican I know would die for the values Ukrainians are dying for today.

The situations elsewhere in the world are telling that the Obama hug and love approach does not work.  We are now in an idealogical conflict between liberal values and authoritarianism that goes way beyond Ukraine.  

4) Militarily Biden still has another year and a bit to be Commander in Chief.  I back him to stick to his guns.

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Astrophel
Obama approach does NOT work

[Carolus]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

You and LongLeftt should start a club.  In other news the RA war machine is pretty much a shattered shell of what it was before the war.  Ukraine has regained most of the territory taken at the outset of this war - right now Russia holds about 6% more of Ukraine then it essentially controlled on 21 Feb 22, and back then what it held was not getting shelacked by Storm Shadows.

Aid continues to flow, although there are tremors - that part is factual.  The UA currently has the operational initiative and continues grinding assaults while RA - wanna talk about horrendous losses.  A lot of people in the West treat war like they are ordering dinner: “An attritional war?  That is not what I ordered!  Waiter!”  But this one is what it is.

Right now the real question is whether or not the RA can be forced to buckle again like it did at Kherson and Kharkiv (everyone forgets that part).  UA keeps trying and we will have to see.  Odds of Russia achieving its strategic aims of this war remain at zero.  A realistic Ukrainian outcome remains undefined as we seem to swing wildly between “Every Russian out of every inch, forever…or we’ve lost” and something short of that we can live with.  That “something” is what all the dying is about I suspect.

So “yes with an if” would be the short answer to the original question from my point of view.  “No with a but” seems to be the other.

It shall be an old-fashioned gentleman's club with brandy and cigars and a large map table in the middle, but I will extend invitations to forum members of any gender.

I fully admit my post was written during a rather foul mood and I will refrain from doing so again in the future. 

It was a polemic post, but my mood is not even foul because I am a bleeding-heart idealist. 

I have already accepted that the most realistic outcome over the next years is that every non-Putinist Ukrainian in the occupied territories (whatver their size) will be slowly maimed and killed by the Russian machine and that no one in the upper Russian chain of command will face any sliver of justice for it. I also accept that the free part of Ukraine will continue to beg on its knees for some degree of attention while the West watches them die in an endless defense war and slowly turns into Russia-light in terms of ideology and practices. 

It is especially the last part which concerns me, out of pure self-interest / interest for my descendants.

The way we do things, and the things we do not do, and the why, these three things currently speak louder about the conditions of the West than the things we actually do, whether it concerns help for Ukraine or to prepare for the global conflict to come, both internally and externally.

That is the explanation behind my darker thoughts.

I thank both Butschi and The_Capt for responding, though. 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Carolus

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, Carolus said:

I fully admit my post was written during a rather foul mood and I will refrain from doing so again in the future. 

It was a polemic post, but my mood is not even foul because I am a bleeding-heart idealist. 

Oh well, I've been guilty of that more than once...

[sburke]

Putin: "Goddamn Hamas".

Russian ruble slumps to 18-month low as Israel-Hamas war sends US dollar higher in flight to safety (yahoo.com)

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

UK and Poland are critical and I doubt will budge, but is that enough? Every barrel has a bottom.

Both of the very same countries have actually stated publicly very recently that they have knocked on their respective barrels and they heard a very empty metallic/wooden echo.

[LongLeftFlank]

14 minutes ago, Carolus said:

It shall be an old-fashioned gentleman's club with brandy and cigars and a large map table in the middle, but I will extend invitations to forum members of any gender.

You had me at brandy & cigars bro, but you kind of lost me after that.

I'm not at all in the space of 'the cynical West, fighting to the last Ukrainian', which is a tankie favourite.

Limiting the casualty rate is ultimately in Ukraine's hands. I don't think Russia can inflict debilitating losses on UA as an attacker, barring WMDs.

...or barring someone deploying that miniature autonomous drone @Battlefront.com Steve once mentioned a while back, IIRC a softball-sized charge with the approximate 'IQ' (and flesh sniffing ability) of a mosquito. If so though, I predict Ukraine gets them first (the Chinese typically need a year to knock foreign tech off in volume, but then watch out!).

However, Ukraine is going to need propping up as a going economy, and society, if it is not to become in large part a gypsy nation of metics.

[Astrophel]

32 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

You had me at brandy & cigars bro, but you kind of lost me after that.

I'm not at all in the space of 'the cynical West, fighting to the last Ukrainian', which is a tankie favourite.

Limiting the casualty rate is ultimately in Ukraine's hands. I don't think Russia can inflict debilitating losses on UA as an attacker, barring WMDs.

...or barring someone deploying that miniature autonomous drone @Battlefront.com Steve once mentioned a while back, IIRC a softball-sized charge with the approximate 'IQ' (and flesh sniffing ability) of a mosquito. If so though, I predict Ukraine gets them first (the Chinese typically need a year to knock foreign tech off in volume, but then watch out!).

However, Ukraine is going to need propping up as a going economy, and society, if it is not to become in large part a gypsy nation of metics.

Perhaps the Philippines perspective is a bit remote/.  For Ukrainians this is not an academic exercise, it is an existential fight against having a Russian torture chamber and "filtration" office being set up in your neighbourhood.  Russia has already inflicted "debilitating losses": We are beyond this point.

As far as propping up the economy goes, Ukraine demonstrates day to day a massive capability.  The agricultural power is global, they have massive reserves of oil and gas and rare earths - why else would Putin be so obsessive?  Their electronics/software competence is formidable and they are already making formidable long range missiles and short range intelligent drones able to take out a tank more effectively than an Apache Helicopter.  Ukraine is a highly intelligent nation with a work ethic and skills.

Ukraine needs helping hands.  It does not need "propping up"

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Butschi said:

You are right and I even said so above, distance, of course matters. But just as their may be no global citizen, not everyone lives in Poland. Or Ukraine. From my place, the distance to Tokmak, to name just one example, is not that much different from the distance to northern Libya. Why should the mere fact that it is formally the same continent matter? Syria is not much farther, btw. And not all of us live in Europe.

No, seriously, I believe this thread (in parts, and that's all I claimed!) has 3000 pages because this conflict is more interesting to us then other conflicts.

Not everyone lives in quiet town in Germany, either. Of course it is more interesting, from a  number of reasons that are not "military nerdy" at all. To name just a few:

1.Cultural influence - as to 'what about Africa" issue; we empathize with guys "like us" much more than with people who look, speak, think and behave broadly like like us. Not because of imagined "racism" toward others, but because of natural evolutional adaptation and shared space. You know, just like you more care about own neighbours than random guys from Papua-New Guinea. So for you Tokmak may be in Greenland, but people coming from there are too similar to just put the issue on the shelf "not my business", at least in social media era.

2.Sheer scale of conflict, in political, material and intellectual terms (yup- the last one is also a challenge)- there is a reason why leading media outlets still  keep Ukraine live feeds or at least in major leads crosshair for almost 2 years. It fluctuates from time to time, but overall topic is still hot and on agenda.

3.Ripples it send across serious world politics; pretty much every major global player needed to take some stance, even if "neutral"- entire geopolitical blocks are formed around these stances. We are observing here Big History, the one that shapes borders, shatter empires and resettles milions of people. And Collective West (states that are for current world order) threw a lot in helping Ukraine- and the West is still keeping major frames of cooperation in the world, fortunatelly. So goodbye Fukuyama, at least the popcultural-one.

The problem is that arguments you put before are only anecdotal; they may be very true in your own environment, but otherwise seem to be description of one's own social bubble rather than broad reality. For example, I could give you contrarian examples of circa dozen of Ukrainian emigres I more or less know (and who live in Ireland, Italy or UK) who I assure you care about this war very much. And one- two taxi drivers from Donbas and Kharkiv living here who didn't care at all, listen to Arestovych all week and passively vote Russia to win.

That being said, it is very likely this winter the interest of global public in Ukraine will settle down.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

UKR TG about situation around Avdiivka:

Russians conduct dense work of artillery and aviation everywhere as they can. Pidars have launched next offensive on the city and flanks. In Opytne area [southern flank] we have been stopping pidars - they swarm as by armored groups as throw to meat assault different scum for attrition of our forces.

We have quite dynamic situation here. Pidars failed own attack on Berdychi village, outflanking Stepove [northern flank], but at the same time have success in direction of other settlement. After fails on flanks pidars are assaulting now Avdiivka coke plant - already semi-destroyed. This plant is fortified place like and meat factory in Bakhmut  

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[A Canadian Cat]

3 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Oh and lets not forget the BFF of North Korea - like being best friends with that weird kid who tortures bugs at recess while touching himself, and everyone tries not to notice.

You should really write romance novels, or at least fan fiction.

Yeah, great writing.

This line was the one that really made me laugh out loud:

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

South Korea made it work pretty well and their capital is under gun range of one of the craziest MFs since his Dad.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://yle.fi/a/74-20054483

 

By early information, likely an attack on Estonia-Finland gas pipeline yesterday. 

 

Mainly problem for Estonia. Finlands and Estonia's shared LNG-terminal is situated in Finland and this pipe is used for transfers to Estonia. 

story develops 

https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/seismic-signal-detected-in-vicinity-of-gas-pipelines-in-the-eastern-baltic-sea 

Seems the world is too desensitized and busy with other crises to notice Russia blow up active energy and communication infrastructure of two NATO countries.

[Lethaface]

On 10/6/2023 at 6:25 PM, dan/california said:

The notable part is that maybe one of these implies Russia will not be hell on earth to live in for the next fifty or a hundred years. Any rational person still in Moscow would be buying a plane ticket before he finished the summary.

Perhaps the rational ones with the means / option to buy a plane ticket already did so a while ago?

[mosuri]

5 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

story develops 

https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/seismic-signal-detected-in-vicinity-of-gas-pipelines-in-the-eastern-baltic-sea 

Seems the world is too desensitized and busy with other crises to notice Russia blow up active energy and communication infrastructure of two NATO countries.

There wasn't much reaction to the Svalbard comms cable incident either last year

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/02/unknown-human-activity-behind-svalbard-cable-disruption

Should always remember that quip Lenin made about bayonets when dealing with Russia. Push back with steel when they probe.

[Letter from Prague]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

Hm. Hard to tell. Worth in €, I'd say yes. MBTs and IFVs (apart from ex-Soviet equipment), no. Then again, if now Trump came around and told the world how stupid it is to spend good money on Ukraine instead of building a nice wall then we might feel compelled to give a little extra just because.

You'd have to be deeply into the M-part in S&M to like being dependent on factors you can't control...

Most of EU (both EU itself and EU countries) help is money, so Ukraine can continue to function as a state - you know, pay salaries to soldiers, government employees, pensions, keep stuff running.

Most of US help is weapons and ammo so Ukraine can fight.

There are of course exceptions (like tanks), but comparing those doesn't make sense. How do you compare keeping power plant running and doctors having salaries and pensioners having food with artillery shells and Javelins? Ukraine needs both.

23 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/seismic-signal-detected-in-vicinity-of-gas-pipelines-in-the-eastern-baltic-sea 

Seems the world is too desensitized and busy with other crises to notice Russia blow up active energy and communication infrastructure of two NATO countries.

I do wonder if we'll read in certain newspaper how Ukraine did it.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Letter from Prague