How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, akd said:

58th Motorized Brigade clears Russian trenches with Russian assistance:

 

Exactly what I've been wondering about -- will UKR be able to take any advantage of the ~14-16 hours of night that are on the way.  THanks for sharing that.  RU soldier shot his comrade in the dark.  Gotta be terrifying to be attacked at night by folks that can see when you can't

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Switchblade 600 is fixed wing and has 40 minutes of endurance. To reach maximum range it also requires two operators to relay the signal.

Autonomous drones do exist and can be very long range but they are used against static targets. To the best of my knowledge autonomous drones with search and destroy capability are still in testing. I am not aware of any used in Ukraine.

Yup.  The cost of nailing trains is not insignificant.  However, a dedicated special forces train smashing unit with access to the full range of intel (including HUMINT) could efficiently and effectively direct more expensive drones to their targets.  The tracks in Ukraine are few and the destinations even fewer.  It would not take much to know where a drone should be and when if there's good intel about a train being on the tracks.

Of course someone operating within the occupied territories with explosives isn't too hard to imagine.  Dangerous work, but not impossible.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I was a younger more energetic man then.  Now I just want to sit in my chair.

Yes, but can you sit in your chair and yell at the kids to get off your lawn at the same time?  I think so!

Steve

[dan/california]

It seems The Pickle has time to write in prison.

[Carolus]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

It seems The Pickle has time to write in prison.

And he seems to have a well-informed, sober and accurate view of the situation (I would co-sign basically everything beside maybe the last paragraph).

Shows how dangerous the man potentially could be. Militarily and politically competent, utterly without humanity.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Carolus said:

And he seems to have a well-informed, sober and accurate view of the situation (I would co-sign basically everything beside maybe the last paragraph).

Shows how dangerous the man potentially could be. Militarily and politically competent, utterly without humanity.

Well at the moment I think he is MUCH more likely to leave prison feet first than he is to be the next Czar. And yes, that is a good thing.

[THH149]

Is Ukraine winning? I've been away!

[Carolus]

2 hours ago, THH149 said:

Is Ukraine winning? I've been away!

Nobody knows!

It is a massive grind of men and material (for a 21st century conflict).

The Russian defenses are deep and holding, over all, but there are indications here and there that losses in men and material start to show brittle spots. No breakout or exploitation moves, though because the Russians have decided to plant mines on top of mines for a few hundred square miles.

Also Russians seem to engage in politically motivated "No Step Back" counter assaults in which they continue to reduce their prison population.

Ukrainian losses are unknown, likely horrible, but likely lower than Russian losses, and the UA seems to keep the overall initiative.

Russian war economy is starting to ramp up thanks to happily continued Western exports and Western support for sanction dodgers, as well as Chinese, North Korean and Iranian supplements. But mostly the West has been giving Ukraine equipment in order to get shot at with weapons built from Western materials and components.

Russians are also learning how to better use drones and increase their air support.

Western support for Ukraine meanwhile is dribbling out after Ukraine was given whatever was more or less readily available in depots last year, but except for a minority the people are more interested in forgetting Ukraine as fast as possible for whatever is next on tiktok. But hey, it's only the third genocidal war in Europe over the last hundred years, so it cannot be that serious.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Carolus

[Ales Dvorak]

11 hours ago, Haiduk said:

 

 

Anyone noticed cannabis at 0:06 - 0:10?

[Butschi]

58 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Western support for Ukraine meanwhile is dribbling out after Ukraine was given whatever was more or less readily available in depots last year, but except for a minority the people are more interested in forgetting Ukraine as fast as possible for whatever is next on tiktok. But hey, it's only the third genocidal war in Europe over the last hundred years, so it cannot be that serious.

That is too polemic for my taste. I mean, sure, we could do more. But compared to other conflicts we are already doing a lot! The numbers are readily available so you can do the math yourself for other countries. Germany's total commitment is around 38 bln € so far, that is twice what Afghanistan cost us in 10x less time. That includes the cost for harbouring refugees but excludes the indirect costs, especially the hit on German economy caused by sanctions etc., which is estimated to be over 100 bln €. If you call that dribbling...

Re: Western attention. That has nothing to do with TikTok and everything with the way we humans work. I am convinced that even the Ukrainians living here (and possibly even in the quieter parts of Ukraine) tend to be more concerned with their day-to-day lives than with the war. I myself admit that recently I was more concerned with my car breaking down than with soldiers dying far away. While on an intellectual level I am aware that the latter is the far greater tragedy, my car refusing to drive has a far greater direct impact on my life. Call me a cynic.

It is great that we are paying so much attention to the war in Ukraine here on this forum! But let's be a little honest to ourselves. Part of why we do that is because we are war(gaming) nerds and this war involves one of our favourite enemies and fancy toys. A war with similar number of casualties somewhere in Africa with people slaughtering each other the old-fashioned way (AKs and machetes?) wouldn't generate a thread with almost 3000 pages here.

[Beleg85]

There are early reports of hevay Russian attacks on Avdiivka today.

Meanwhile, such situation of Russian armoured column trying to reinforce the push...to be fair to them, it seems this time engineers were drunk rather than crewmen. Bridge looks very narrow.

57 minutes ago, Butschi said:

It is great that we are paying so much attention to the war in Ukraine here on this forum! But let's be a little honest to ourselves. Part of why we do that is because we are war(gaming) nerds and this war involves one of our favourite enemies and fancy toys. A war with similar number of casualties somewhere in Africa with people slaughtering each other the old-fashioned way (AKs and machetes?) wouldn't generate a thread with almost 3000 pages here.

Sorry, but this is no-argument. How many of us happen to live in Africa? It's entirely natural that violent and unexpected close conflict on massive scale unseen from WWII (in Europe), especially one involving major powers that sends nuclear threats on daily basis, generates far more interest than some guerilla on other side of the world. Looking on human sociology, there is no such thing as "global citizen". Also, fact that Ukrainians carry on with their daily lives does change nothing.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

Nobody knows!

It is a massive grind of men and material (for a 21st century conflict).

The Russian defenses are deep and holding, over all, but there are indications here and there that losses in men and material start to show brittle spots. No breakout or exploitation moves, though because the Russians have decided to plant mines on top of mines for a few hundred square miles.

Also Russians seem to engage in politically motivated "No Step Back" counter assaults in which they continue to reduce their prison population.

Ukrainian losses are unknown, likely horrible, but likely lower than Russian losses, and the UA seems to keep the overall initiative.

Russian war economy is starting to ramp up thanks to happily continued Western exports and Western support for sanction dodgers, as well as Chinese, North Korean and Iranian supplements. But mostly the West has been giving Ukraine equipment in order to get shot at with weapons built from Western materials and components.

Russians are also learning how to better use drones and increase their air support.

Western support for Ukraine meanwhile is dribbling out after Ukraine was given whatever was more or less readily available in depots last year, but except for a minority the people are more interested in forgetting Ukraine as fast as possible for whatever is next on tiktok. But hey, it's only the third genocidal war in Europe over the last hundred years, so it cannot be that serious.

You and LongLeftt should start a club.  In other news the RA war machine is pretty much a shattered shell of what it was before the war.  Ukraine has regained most of the territory taken at the outset of this war - right now Russia holds about 6% more of Ukraine then it essentially controlled on 21 Feb 22, and back then what it held was not getting shelacked by Storm Shadows.

Aid continues to flow, although there are tremors - that part is factual.  The UA currently has the operational initiative and continues grinding assaults while RA - wanna talk about horrendous losses.  A lot of people in the West treat war like they are ordering dinner: “An attritional war?  That is not what I ordered!  Waiter!”  But this one is what it is.

Right now the real question is whether or not the RA can be forced to buckle again like it did at Kherson and Kharkiv (everyone forgets that part).  UA keeps trying and we will have to see.  Odds of Russia achieving its strategic aims of this war remain at zero.  A realistic Ukrainian outcome remains undefined as we seem to swing wildly between “Every Russian out of every inch, forever…or we’ve lost” and something short of that we can live with.  That “something” is what all the dying is about I suspect.

So “yes with an if” would be the short answer to the original question from my point of view.  “No with a but” seems to be the other.

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://yle.fi/a/74-20054483

 

By early information, likely an attack on Estonia-Finland gas pipeline yesterday. 

 

Mainly problem for Estonia. Finlands and Estonia's shared LNG-terminal is situated in Finland and this pipe is used for transfers to Estonia. 

[chuckdyke]

Can Ukraine navigate the Black Sea? For that it needs the Crimea. Ukraine has won the war when the Russian get rid of Putin and put somebody in the Kremlin the free world can do business with. A treaty with Putin is AKA a defeat he won't accept anything less.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Sorry, but this is no-argument. How many of us happen to live in Africa?

You are right and I even said so above, distance, of course matters. But just as their may be no global citizen, not everyone lives in Poland. Or Ukraine. From my place, the distance to Tokmak, to name just one example, is not that much different from the distance to northern Libya. Why should the mere fact that it is formally the same continent matter? Syria is not much farther, btw. And not all of us live in Europe.

No, seriously, I believe this thread (in parts, and that's all I claimed!) has 3000 pages because this conflict is more interesting to us then other conflicts.

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Also, fact that Ukrainians carry on with their daily lives does change nothing.

Of course not, what should it change? It is just a testament to the human ability to forget, at list for a time, what doesn't directly affect us. Which is all I said.

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Butschi

[billbindc]

Obvious thing is obvious (German press notwithstanding): 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

You and LongLeftt should start a club.  In other news the RA war machine is pretty much a shattered shell of what it was before the war.

 

Don't put words in my mouth, please, or drag me into this 'Who's Winning' stupidity [which btw was either /sarc or /trolling].

The 'shattered shell' appears to be continuing to put substantial forces into the field, so I'm not sure how useful that choice of wording is.

...But sure, I'd agree at this point that Russia's *offensive potential*, whether as a 1940s infantry army or anything more modern, is increasingly a 'shattered shell' that will take Moscow decades to revivify, if ever. That is owing both to the altered offence-defence dynamics you have been describing for thousands of pages (many thanks!), and to a steady erosion of support capabilities and near-irreplaceable stocks that we cannot yet see more than the tip of the iceberg. All solid points

Ergo, we will *not* be seeing the UA overrun by white clad Siberians (or swarms of white clad Chinese drones) in the dead of winter.

So let's put that one away, can we?

****

At this point, I'm far more concerned with the price Ukraine must pay to keep up this fight at its current intensity (or even at a lower level of intensity, along some 1200km of front) for another year, or two. Fine, there's 'a lot of ruin in a nation' and nobody (not me, anyway) is questioning the Ukrainian will to fight on. There's no option to 'accommodate', never has been.

But 'the moral is NOT in fact to the physical as 3 to 1' when talking about sustaining a war economy and some 2+ million Ukrainians (?) engaged in the war effort full time, over time scales that run into years. Think of the WW1 and WW2 home fronts; a lot of things wore thin over time, probably different things than today, but they did.

(TL:DR, I might Will Beyonce in biker leathers to lech on me, but Will alone doesn't make it happen)

1. The Ukes carefully mask their personnel and material losses, but given the nature of their assault operations since June, these must be quite substantial.

2. And (hey @Haiduk, chime in here please), Ukraine's civilian economy, at least east of Dnipro, has got to be largely suspended? Are payrolls clearing? Are there ration books? Or is Ukraine somehow running a guns-and-butter economy?

If we are now talking about a Long War, with timeframes measured in years, it is hardly cheese-eating-surrender-monkey defeatism to be looking for more hard data on what's happening on our stalwart Ukrainian allies' side of the hill. 

CAN they keep it up?

What. Is. it? (It's It!) WhatisIt?

You want it all, but you can't have it....

Edited October 10, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Kinophile]

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/10/09/uncertain-fate-for-active-protection-on-armys-combat-vehicles/

The interesting part is halfway down, WRT Iron Fist:

Quote

The service wants active protection that not only defends the sides of a vehicle but also the top, which would address threats like loitering munitions and drones.

The service is “working continuously on our ability to defeat hemispheric threats all around the vehicle against a range of threats with a range of technical approaches. So not looking for one system that is one-size-fits-all and does everything, but beyond that I’m not going to go into any more detail,” Dean said, noting the information is classified.

 

[The_Capt]

35 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Don't put words in my mouth, please, or drag me into this 'Who's Winning' stupidity [which btw was either /sarc or /trolling].

The 'shattered shell' appears to be continuing to put substantial forces into the field, so I'm not sure how useful that choice of wording is.

...But sure, I'd agree at this point that Russia's *offensive potential*, whether as a 1940s infantry army or anything more modern, is increasingly a 'shattered shell' that will take Moscow decades to revivify, if ever. That is owing both to the altered offence-defence dynamics you have been describing for thousands of pages (many thanks!), and to a steady erosion of support capabilities and near-irreplaceable stocks that we cannot yet see more than the tip of the iceberg. All solid points

Ergo, we will *not* be seeing the UA overrun by white clad Siberians (or swarms of white clad Chinese drones) in the dead of winter.

So let's put that one away, can we?

****

At this point, I'm far more concerned with the price Ukraine must pay to keep up this fight at its current intensity (or even at a lower level of intensity, along some 1200km of front) for another year, or two. Fine, there's 'a lot of ruin in a nation' and nobody (not me, anyway) is questioning the Ukrainian will to fight on. There's no option to 'accommodate', never has been.

But 'the moral is NOT in fact to the physical as 3 to 1' when talking about sustaining a war economy and some 2+ million Ukrainians (?) engaged in the war effort full time, over time scales that run into years. Think of the WW1 and WW2 home fronts; a lot of things wore thin over time, probably different things than today, but they did.

(TL:DR, I might Will Beyonce in biker leathers to lech on me, but Will alone doesn't make it happen)

1. The Ukes carefully mask their personnel and material losses, but given the nature of their assault operations since June, these must be quite substantial.

2. And (hey @Haiduk, chime in here please), Ukraine's civilian economy, at least east of Dnipro, has got to be largely suspended? Are payrolls clearing? Are there ration books? Or is Ukraine somehow running a guns-and-butter economy?

If we are now talking about a Long War, with timeframes measured in years, it is hardly cheese-eating-surrender-monky defeatism to be looking for more hard data on what's happening on our stalwart Ukrainian allies' side of the hill. 

CAN they keep it up?

What. Is. it? (It's It!) WhatisIt?

You want it all, but you can't have it....

Oh my someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed today.  I was more playfully talking about the pearl clutching and hand wringing "the half empty glass is breaking!!" sentiment, which appears to be spreading.  Long list of posts with that tone have your name at the top going way back, hence why I "pulled you in"...and you never disappoint!

So we have moved from the monolithic invincible Russia specter, to "how long can Ukraine possibly hold out?!"

As long as they want/need/have/can?  I sense you, and many others, are really struggling with the unknowns in all this.  Welcome to war.  It is a collision of certainties that create massive uncertainty.  The RA is a "shattered shell" of what we feared on 21 Feb 23 - you can debate that one all day but it is done.  It will take a decade or more to rebuild what they were shooting for back in the 10s.  They broke it all over Ukraine last year; talk about bad decisions.  But they can Defend - as the old Prussian also said, that part is easier, but it does not get the business done.

So how long can Ukraine "last" really depends on what they are doing.  Can they freeze this conflict in place - yeuup, the RA suicide-fest last winter proved that one.  Can they re-take all of former Ukraine...well, jury is still out.  Can, as a nation, they sustain a war longer than Russia?  Well we will see.  Are we talking low-intensity "we are all dug in and raiding now and again"?  Sure.  Are we talking insanely high intensity combat - well probably not, no one really can.

My main point is that just because you can't get answers you want does not automatically mean the worst is happening.  Based on what I can see (not imagine I am seeing, like fully functioning Russian rail systems pouring thousands of tons of supplies onto fat happy Russian defenders), the West is committed through the Winter at least.  If Ukraine can pull off a breakthrough and regain some momentum, they have a good chance at some serious gains- as we have seen in this war, no one cracks like the RA.

If no breakthroughs happen and all we get is very expensive leg humping, then I expect some difficult political conversations are on the table late-Winter, early-Spring.  Maybe we call it where it stands and everyone wins/loses.  Putin can claim the "greatest Russian victory since Bagration" as he retains an extra 6% of now-blasted and mined wasteland, that cost them 100k lives.  Russia can go back and lick its wounds while trying to figure out who to fend off NATO, who scored Finland and Sweden out of this deal - Russia got a pretty weak China...and the big stuffy animal filled with asbestos that is Iran.  Oh and lets not forget the BFF of North Korea - like being best friends with that weird kid who tortures bugs at recess while touching himself, and everyone tries not to notice.

Ukraine gets to stay Ukraine, starts laying mines - hey look they can do it too! And we wind up with a Korean solution.  Maybe Ukraine does not even get to enter into NATO or EU, but money and alliances will be created because containing Russia matters now - South Korea made it work pretty well and their capital is under gun range of one of the craziest MFs since his Dad.       

https://datacommons.org/place/country/KOR/?utm_medium=explore&mprop=amount&popt=EconomicActivity&cpv=activitySource,GrossDomesticProduction&hl=en

To my mind, that is about as bad it will get, at least as things stand right now.  If the West - especially Europe, cuts Ukraine lose entirely, then this whole show was a complete waste of time as Ukraine will not be able to survive for long without a massive reconstruction/investment effort - we let that happen, well we deserve what happens next. 

I know this is not the war you ordered, sir, but it is the one we got.

Edited October 10, 2023 by The_Capt

[kimbosbread]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh and lets not forget the BFF of North Korea - like being best friends with that weird kid who tortures bugs at recess while touching himself, and everyone tries not to notice.

You should really write romance novels, or at least fan fiction. You know that Fifty Shades of Gray started out as Twilight S&M fan fiction (hence being set in Seattle, which is relatively near Forks)?

Edited October 10, 2023 by kimbosbread

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

  Odds of Russia achieving its strategic aims of this war remain at zero.  

But,  they're not. Isn't that  why we spent umpteen pages on WTF Will Congress Do?

The wrong US President with the wrong Congress and Senate are the death knell of Russian defeat. 

It's sounds big (all three branches)  but Republicans have Congress, odds are high they'll keep it, Senate is one geriatric death away from deadlock and the Presidency is functionally a toss up. 

Biden won by a slim margin, and its 100% not certain Dem's will hold what they have. Ergo Russia's success is not not-zero. It's well above and they are actively working towards a friendly/un-interested Administration. 

Im not saying this to start a US Pols death spiral again but your statement above is functionally incorrect. 

[Eddy]

Maybe a bit off topic this but why have 2 top Polish generals resigned?

Poland’s top commanders resign days before election | Financial Times (ft.com) (paywalled)

Quote

Two of Poland’s top military commanders have resigned just days before a fiercely contested election in which national security features prominently in the rightwing government’s campaign.

Rajmund Andrzejczak, chief of the general staff of the armed forces, and operational commander Tomasz Piotrowski tendered their resignation to president Andrzej Duda, the military said on Tuesday.

The two army chiefs gave no reason for their resignation. But ahead of parliamentary elections on Sunday, the opposition seized on the opportunity to cast a longstanding row between the top brass and defence minister Mariusz Błaszczak as proof that the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party could not be trusted with national security matters.

Is this just internal politics or is it important wrt support to Ukraine?

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, kimbosbread said:

You should really write romance novels, or at least fan fiction. You know that Fifty Shades of Gray started out as Twilight S&M fan fiction (hence being set in Seattle, which is relatively near Forks)?

Funny you should mention it...35 years as a military officer; next 35 as a failing hack fiction writer (and part time game design guy)...that is the plan.

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

But,  they're not. Isn't that  why we spent umpteen pages on WTF Will Congress Do?

The wrong US President with the wrong Congress and Senate are the death knell of Russian defeat. 

It's sounds big (all three branches)  but Republicans have Congress, odds are high they'll keep it, Senate is one geriatric death away from deadlock and the Presidency is functionally a toss up. 

Biden won by a slim margin, and its 100% not certain Dem's will hold what they have. Ergo Russia's success is not not-zero. It's well above and they are actively working towards a friendly/un-interested Administration. 

Im not saying this to start a US Pols death spiral again but your statement above is functionally incorrect. 

Guys, gotta get out of your own heads. 

Russian strategic aims:

- Full subjugation of Ukraine, pulling it in as a puppet state a la Belarus. 

- Division and weakening of NATO in order to give breathing room within Russia sphere

- A united greater Russia under a new Czar

I don't care if Poppy Orange gets in and cuts off the taps - that up there is not going to happen without the entire world abandoning Ukraine, and whole lot more to be honest.  Could we snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?  Sure, but it is a reach to see things failing that badly.  Even if we do abandon Ukraine, it is a country of 44 million and really...really...p$ssed off right now.  They will dig in and fight like badgers because they have seen what the alternative looks like. 

After Bucha et al, Ukraine is never going to embrace Russia.  NATO has secured unity and defence spending for at least a couple decades because now there is a threat that isn't a few idiots in white Toyotas in countries we didn't even know existed.  And Russia is a mess, and will likely remain one.  There will be no western normalization with Russia after this, or if there is, shame on us.

US Pol is not the driving factor in Russia achieving its strategic objectives (stated or unstated) in this war.  It is a driving factor in how badly they lose it.

Edited October 10, 2023 by The_Capt

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

There are early reports of hevay Russian attacks on Avdiivka today.

Avdiivka сoke plant now. Reportedly situation very hard, especially on nothern flank, from there are reports about real zerg-rush. Several days ago Russians could seize our forward posituions west of Krasnohorivka village, now Russians try to advance west toward Stepove - Berdychi. 

Locals write about intensive artilelry bombardment since night and small return fire of UKR artillery. One of reason - most of artillery positions are deployed in Donetsk and response can hit residential areas. 

Situation on northerm flank of Avdiivka 5-6 days ago.