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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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10 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Range is a problem. Most loitering munitions have maybe 30-40 minutes of endurance tops, so most of your loiter time is spent traveling to the target area.

You mean “most battery-powered loitering munitions”. Range increases dramatically if you do three things:

  • Fixed wing (ie not a quadcopter)
  • No transmitter that is sending video
  • Use a little gasoline engine
10 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Also, EW becomes more of a problem the further you fly.

Not if you are autonomous and don’t rely on GPS/etc. EW is going to drive autonomy as much as anything.

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Several examples, how Russian battalion-level commanders are forced to participate in combat personally to keep proper morale and motivavation of own subordinates, but....

Battalion commander of 83rd air-assault brigade major Vladimir Miroshnichenko led trench attack somewhere on southern flank of Bakhmut and was shot dead on knife range (see the video)

Lt.colonel Igor Meshkov, commander of "Shtorm" assault detachment of new-formed 26th MRR of 60th MRD or 18th CAA was killed near Kozachi Laheri in Kherson oblast (on the video in comments UKR soldiers investigate his body - graphic!). In past Meshkov commanded BARS-12 battalion.

3rd assault brigade captured wounded major Timur Abdurakhmanov "Shaitan" commander of volunteer battalion "Alga" of Tatarstan Republic. Reportedly after battalion was decimated near Vuhledar in February, after replenishing it was subordinated to 72nd motor-rifle brigade. Russian officer says he was on position with 120 men, but after shelling and approaching of UKR stormrs, his men just fled and he was wounded and hide in the basement. 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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7 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

You mean “most battery-powered loitering munitions”. Range increases dramatically if you do three things:

  • Fixed wing (ie not a quadcopter)
  • No transmitter that is sending video
  • Use a little gasoline engine

Not if you are autonomous and don’t rely on GPS/etc. EW is going to drive autonomy as much as anything.

Hit the big metal thing moving down the rail line does seem to be about the easiest bit autonomous AI a person could write. I am sure it would quickly lead to various sorts camouflage for the locomotives, although that might be harder if the drone had thermals. 

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6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Several examples, how Russian battalion-level commanders are forced to participate in combat personally to keep proper morale and motivavation of own subordinates, but....

Battalion commander of 83rd air-assault brigade major Vladimir Miroshnichenko led trench attack somewhere on southern flank of Bakhmut and was shot dead on knife range (see the video)

Lt.colonel Igor Meshkov, commander of "Shtorm" assault detachment of new-formed 26th MRR of 60th MRD or 18th CAA was killed near Kozachi Laheri in Kherson oblast (on the video in comments UKR soldiers investigate his body - graphic!). In past Meshkov commanded BARS-12 battalion.

3rd assault brigade captured wounded major Timur Abdurakhmanov "Shaitan" commander of volunteer battalion "Alga" of Tatarstan Republic. Reportedly after battalion was decimated near Vuhledar in February, after replenishing it was subordinated to 72nd motor-rifle brigade. Russian officer says he was on position with 120 men, but after shelling and approaching of UKR stormrs, his men just fled and he was wounded and hide in the basement. 

 

Brilliant fieldcraft from the guy in the first video, I had to watch the video three times.

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6 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

You mean “most battery-powered loitering munitions”. Range increases dramatically if you do three things:

  • Fixed wing (ie not a quadcopter)
  • No transmitter that is sending video
  • Use a little gasoline engine

Not if you are autonomous and don’t rely on GPS/etc. EW is going to drive autonomy as much as anything.

Switchblade 600 is fixed wing and has 40 minutes of endurance. To reach maximum range it also requires two operators to relay the signal.

Autonomous drones do exist and can be very long range but they are used against static targets. To the best of my knowledge autonomous drones with search and destroy capability are still in testing. I am not aware of any used in Ukraine.

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2 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Switchblade 600 is fixed wing and has 40 minutes of endurance. To reach maximum range it also requires two operators to relay the signal.

Autonomous drones do exist and can be very long range but they are used against static targets. To the best of my knowledge autonomous drones with search and destroy capability are still in testing. I am not aware of any used in Ukraine.

Yet, a very big yet on that one. Trains are almost as easy to ID as helicopters, and a lot easier to hit. The more I think about this the more I think Ukraine should do it soonest.

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Russians claim they hit with Iskander-M ballistic missile "accumulation of armored vehicles" in Slavhorod town, Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Slavorod has railway station and on administrativce border of Dnipropetrpovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblast, 72 km from frontline. I will not wonder if again AD passed Russian Orlan and next military train was hit. Let's see about furher information

Image

 

Edited by Haiduk
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5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Yet, a very big yet on that one. Trains are almost as easy to ID as helicopters, and a lot easier to hit. The more I think about this the more I think Ukraine should do it soonest.

I could see Ukraine (or Russia for that matter) deploying something like that if they can overcome the technical hurdles. I absolutely do not see the US or anyone else handing over an AI-driven autonomous weapon of any type.

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Israeli consul of western Ukraine region Oleh Vishniakov told a story of last stand of a family of Israeli officers, who obviously had Ukrainian roots - Adar and Itay Berdychevsky (Berdychiv is Ukrainian city in Zhytomyr oblast, one of biggest places of Jews settle in Ukraine in 17-20th centuries). When they had seen Hamas terrorists approach to their house, they hide own children to special shelter room and engaged enemy with own weapon. They could eliminate seven attackers, but both were killed in fight too. Hamas fighters didn't find children and since 13 hours they were taken by grandpa and grandma. 

09c3c3e-508.-------------------2023-10-09t194827.jpg

https://www.facebook.com/il.consul.israel/posts/pfbid0cxbqDRHqsU27jcS6hap6p6j3uDbeYjyr5AHGRNn9ztCstjUDzfWuwKN133HfWV71l

In present time knowingly about two killed Ukrainan citizens in Hamas attack.

Edited by Haiduk
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Ramzan Kadyrov made a statement in which he called international communuty to find fair solution about Palestine, he also called Arab countries to establish coalition to influence on West that it forced Israel to stop bombing of Gaza Strip. Kadyrov offered to send his troops to Gaza strip as "peacemakers"

https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/3985

Recently Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs called both sides to stop conflict and that peace settlement is possible only on the base of internationally recognized agreements about borders (they hint about Israel in 1967 borders?): https://lenta.ru/news/2023/10/07/rossiya-prizvala-izrail-i-palestinu-k-prekrascheniyu-ognya/

Today Lavrov almost repeated this MFA statement and added that "position of West about this conflict raises a lot of questions": https://lenta.ru/news/2023/10/07/rossiya-prizvala-izrail-i-palestinu-k-prekrascheniyu-ognya/

 

Edited by Haiduk
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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Ramzan Kadyrov made a statement in which he called international communuty to find fair solution about Palestine, he also called Arab countries to establish coalition to influence on West that it forced Israel to stop bombing of Gaza Strip. Kadyrov offered to send his troops to Gaza strip as "peacemakers"

https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/3985

That's because Mosque of his father's name, one of largest in Israel, was being hit by missile shot from Gaza today. Note how nuanced his statements are (except part of "Chechens peacekeepers" ofc.). Russia does not want to officially be viewed as side in this war, and this is even despite Ramzan late self-presentations as devout muslim. I think they will  wait what Israel will do to Gaza within several weeks/months (and possibly wait for reaction of Hezbollah) until new, wider PR campaign will start, comparing Mariupol to Khan Yunis etc. Global tankies will love it. This conflict will not stop support for UA, but may influence and tire public opinion in many countries.

Edited by Beleg85
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"This is a war of intelligences," says the operator of the UAV of the 92nd OShBr, friend " Darvin ", about the work of drones.

One calculation (4 people) per day of work uses a minimum of 20 FPV drones, which costs more than $10,000. This is without taking into account the cost of other drones: night bombers, drop drones and reconnaissance drones.

The enemy is ahead of us in the number of FPV drones, because he can afford to work with them in dugouts or "holes".

"We don't have that luxury. In our country, FPV drones have become a kind of "Lancet" for the poor," notes the commander of the FPV drone platoon, a friend of "Banderac".

t.me/fedorenkoys/131

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2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Autonomous drones do exist and can be very long range but they are used against static targets. To the best of my knowledge autonomous drones with search and destroy capability are still in testing. I am not aware of any used in Ukraine.

There was a video the other day on one such prototype drone, but perhaps not fully-autonomous, competing for the U.S. Air Force's Skyborg program:

https://www.airforce.com/experience-the-air-force/airmen-stories/inside-air-force-innovation/project-skyborg
https://afresearchlab.com/technology/skyborg

 

Edited by cesmonkey
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via : House Foreign Affairs Chair Michale McCaul on a potential way forward for Israel aid:“I think there's discussion about putting Israeli funding with Ukraine funding, maybe Taiwan funding and finally border security funding. To me that would be a good package.”

 

This works!
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