How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, kluge said:

Yes, but it comes down to a question of how quickly can it be done.

400m deep mixed field with an AT ditch in the middle can be done in 4-5 mins with a full on breaching team that includes AEV support…but that is an eternity under fire.

[kevinkin]

This brief summary says it all ... take a deep breath:

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1667197895148437504?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1667197400212205571|twgr^83d99c9eacbfb480e6347d18d56e9053dd1910bc|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Frussia-has-destroyed-its-first-ukrainian-bradley-fighting-vehicles

On a side note, I have never seen the pier at NWS Earle so busy for at least a year now. It must have something to do with the war and suppling the effort. What is stored in the bunkers at Colts Neck that could be of use in the war - I don't know. Nothing other than small arms had been approved. Maybe the navy logistics ships are just using the pier and the support facilities. Maybe they are replacing draw downs in Europe. But the activity is remarkable and I believe the US is committed to continuing the flow of material to Ukraine. 

https://cnrma.cnic.navy.mil/Installations/NWS-Earle/

[Maciej Zwolinski]

17 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Thanks, I had guessed that maybe they would be useful closer to the offensive? 

They are definitely the most useful hunting Shaheeds. The only way to do this job without getting bankrupt either in money terms or in SAM stocks.

[Battlefront.com]

Important update to the Leo/Brad losses.

I've spent a little more time comparing and contrasting the two sets of photo/video releases as well as reading some others who have done the same.

The salient point here is there was more than one breaching operation.  I am going to speculate there was no fewer than 4 attempts that played out roughly like this...

Attempt 1 - resulted in the loss of a BMR-2 mine clearer.

Attempt 2 - made it quite a bit further and, I think, is the force that made it to the treeline and was hit by artillery.  Loss of at least one Leo2 (I think the one recovered already) and a couple other vehicles.

Attempt 3 - a Leo2 with mine plow went further BMR-2 and then things went very wrong.  One of the Bradleys following was destroyed by KA-52.  The Leo2 veered off the already established path, dropped its plow, and reversed into the destroyed Bradley.  One Brad tried to get around the destroyed one (either before or after the Leo) and blew a track.  Two other Brads, likely directly behind the Leo, turned around and went off track to get around the destroyed Brad (and possibly Leo).  Both hit mines and were disabled.

Attempt 4 - some plow vehicle went to the right of the mess from Attempt 3 and got back onto the main track.  A Brad passing by the mess got hit with something and was disabled and later cooked off rather dramatically.  3 more Brads tried to go around (to the right) and were all disabled, presumably by mines.

 

That's the best I can do to piece this together right now.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I honestly think that if you have not shaped it, the lone breacher is going to die.  A lone tank with a plough is just a suicide mission if the enemy has ISR and PGMs linked.  

Oh, I hear you on this.  My point is that it seems like the old days you could be more sure that some aspect of the shaping was going to save your bacon, in particular blinding the enemy to what is going on or maneuvering faster than the enemy can hit you with artillery.  The nature of modern ISR and PGMs make it less likely than in the past you'll be able to do either, not to mention both.

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I really don’t think it is an “old doctrine/new doctrine” issue, it is new environment where setting conditions for a breaching op have changed dramatically - you know we did see this coming?  If they had done the lone vehicle they may have only lost the Leo but by taking too long to get over the obstacle they could easily lose the same Bradley’s on the other side of the obstacle - recall the river fiasco for the RA down at Severodonetsk?  It is really pick you poison.

This depends on the depth of the minefield and what the enemy has on the other side of it.  I'd rather have my forces through a minefield and having some degree of freedom instead of being bottled up in a minefield where there is none.

So if I have to pick, I'd rather be over the river than in it

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Basically we have a lone KA-52 and what may be some mortar impacts.  The rest looks like mines.  So the UA may very well have established conditions but then got all FUBAR in the lane, then the UASs shows up and time to say bye bye to the nice US hardware and run like hell.

See my revised analysis of the info we have.  It would seem that Brads, minimum, were destroyed by some form of PGM.  However, they weren't destroyed at the same time.  The rest were something else.  Looks like 6 to mines, mechanical failure of the BMR-2?  Panic of the Leo2 crew?

Steve

[sross112]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

FPV drone smashes right into the back of a Russian soldier, but it didn't quite kill him.  The SVD fired by his comrade probably finished the job:

Steve

Military battlefield triage is generally considered pretty ruthless compared to civilian triage, but dang. Generally those that are expected to die are given a morphine syrette or two so they can pass on comfortably numb. Apparently in Russia it is just a 7.62 in the melon. I'm sure that works wonders for the morale of the troops witnessing it.

[Centurian52]

4 hours ago, Rokko said:

That's 10 out of, what? 50 delivered Bradleys? So 20% of all Bradleys Ukraine has to drive over a minefield in the first defensive line and give a few Ka-52s some target practice...

10 out of 109 M2 Bradley's, according to Oryx. Still a decent chunk. I definitely think we should have sent more.

I don't like seeing these tactical level losses. But I'm pleased with the amount of ground the Ukrainians appear to be buying with those losses so far. It's early days still, and obviously there has been no dramatic breakthrough yet. But I'm feeling optimistic about the offensive.

Besides, as my recent battles in CMBS have reminded me, even when you are grinding out the enemy at a rate of 2:1 in your favor it still feels like you are taking very heavy losses. And those losses are never evenly distributed across time and space either. You get periods of smooth sailing intermixed with isolated disasters. A stretch of time with no casualties brought to a sudden end with the catastrophic loss of an entire platoon mounted in their IFVs, for example (happened to me recently, but I still won with a favorable loss ratio). For all we know the Ukrainians are still inflicting disproportionate casualties on the Russians.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Seems the equipment was lost to Russian territory (at least for the duration of the photo op). 

To me, this makes it less likely any neighboring breaches were successful and the equipment would have been left under Ukrainian control to recover later on.

[MikeyD]

I once read a government paper on US vehicle damage from mines/IEDs in Iraq. The number of damaged vehicles, including Bradleys and Abrams, was HUGE. Some vehicles went back for repairs/rebuilds five times over. That's just the nature of modern warfare. And that was why MRAP was invented. The assumption was you will eventually run over a mine. Might as well make a vehicle that the passengers will survive the blast and the sheered-off suspension pieces can be swapped out.

[Beleg85]

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Thanks, I had guessed that maybe they would be useful closer to the offensive? 

They would be, but the fact that the Gephards have a range of 3,000 meters, and the Helicopter launched missiles have a quoted range of ten thousand meters. is problematic Which is why every Gephardt in Europe was sitting in storage at the beginning of this war as opposed to in active service. There is going to be an excruciatingly expensive new generation of Shorad systems, some sort of A.I. based drone and helicopter hunting drone, or something.

Edited: for clarity plus 

New system of some description is on the way a defense contractor near you. NOTO's theory until now has been that the air force could handle the helicopter problem.

Edited June 9, 2023 by dan/california

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well you basically have to deny it father back. So SHORAD - maybe people should have been screaming for that instead of freakin Leopards - or you can strike the tac aviation support systems in depth.  Or you live with it and send in enough mass to get past it - of course this hits the ISR and PGM dilemma.

Again Ye blasphemes!  Thou woudst make thine world zero-sum!  Thou canst have both SHORAD and The Benevolent Creator's Most Beloved of All (meaning armored vehicles). 

Edited June 9, 2023 by danfrodo

[cesmonkey]

Looks like the Ukrainians are going to make another push tonight, according to this Russian blogger:
https://t.me/s/vrogov
https://t.me/vrogov/10204
 

Quote

Everything suggests that today the main work will be in the area of the settlement. Rabotino, Orekhovsky district, Zaporozhye region.

From this:
https://t.me/wargonzo/13124
 

Quote

️The situation in Zaporozhye at 00:30 Moscow time️

Scattered information comes from the line of contact.

Vladimir Rogov reports - away we go. Andryukha Rudenko reports massive artillery preparation, however, in the direction of work of the sources of the @wargonzo project , artillery is operating normally from both sides. And this is understandable - the situation on different flanks can differ radically.

I think it means there are three different Russian bloggers from slightly different sections of the  Zaporizhzhia front line:

Edited June 9, 2023 by cesmonkey

[Centurian52]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

It absolutely sucks for Ukraine that this happened, but the long term upside for NATO is that this is the kind of unpleasant event that can actually drive changes in doctrine.

This reminds me of one of the lectures that was given at the conference I attended this week. The lecture was on solving problems by searching failed attempts for new ideas. His point was that failed attempts are more valuable to the learning process than successful attempts, because failed attempts tend to contain more new information than successful attempts. The conference was on Model-Based Reasoning in Science and Technology, not developing and revising military doctrine, but some concepts are universal.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

55 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I honestly think that if you have not shaped it, the lone breacher is going to die.  A lone tank with a plough is just a suicide mission if the enemy has ISR and PGMs linked.

Yes, but in a current war against a peer enemy can you even hope to shape the environment to the extent that a breaching vehicle is reasonably safe, with so many threats able to reliably kill a tank? Or do you have to have say a 20 of those hugely expensive monsters breaching side to side to have a hope than a few will live long enough to deliver a lane? We are not going to see the second variant in Zaporozhe, that's for sure

 

PS As a side note, the inevitably sad fate of "The Solitary Breacher" struck me as very romantic and waiting for its Wordsworth.  Something along the lines: "Will no one tell me why it burns?/Perhaps the engine covers glow/due to some well-aimed PGMs/ or bomb, delivered from a drone"

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

This reminds me of one of the lectures that was given at the conference I attended this week. The lecture was on solving problems by searching failed attempts for new ideas. His point was that failed attempts are more valuable to the learning process than successful attempts, because failed attempts tend to contain more new information than successful attempts. The conference was on Model-Based Reasoning in Science and Technology, not developing and revising military doctrine, but some concepts are universal.

For sure!  Failures are great places to learn.  Sometimes my team's simulations don't match test data.  But if we put all the physics we all thought mattered, what is missing?  Sometimes it's the test (my fave answer, of course, and just happened this week ).   But it does get folks to start asking important questions about what is going on, usually leading to some deeper understanding.  Or just lots of frustration, also common.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Seems the equipment was lost to Russian territory (at least for the duration of the photo op). 

To me, this makes it less likely any neighboring breaches were successful and the equipment would have been left under Ukrainian control to recover later on.

RU fool in picture not gonna be smiling when he (probably) finds out the other columns have advanced and his team, who showed some skill, are outflanked and cut off.

[sburke]

22 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

This reminds me of one of the lectures that was given at the conference I attended this week. The lecture was on solving problems by searching failed attempts for new ideas. His point was that failed attempts are more valuable to the learning process than successful attempts, because failed attempts tend to contain more new information than successful attempts. The conference was on Model-Based Reasoning in Science and Technology, not developing and revising military doctrine, but some concepts are universal.

LOL the Russians should be masters of this science!

[MSBoxer]

For what it is worth.

I have considerable time flying the KA50 in DCS and it is remarkably easy to get within 10km of your target using terrain masking.  With the numerous tree lines in southern Ukraine, I would think it would be easy to get an experienced single or two ship formation into position.  Then all you need is a relatively small gap in the trees to designate and fire, sometimes there is no need to even pop up.  That close to ground clutter it would be hard for any ground-based system to acquire and lock.

Now, if you have air superiority the game changes.  Any aircraft with look down/shoot down capability can really ruin your day.

Of course, this is all based upon video game experience, but then again isn't why most of us are here?

[Centurian52]

12 minutes ago, sburke said:

LOL the Russians should be masters of this science!

Admittedly, learning still does require conscious reflection.

[sburke]

Putin has postponed his annual marathon phone-in as Ukraine starts re-taking territory in its counteroffensive: report (yahoo.com)

Vladimir Putin's annual phone-in has been postponed, Kommersant reported.

The "Direct Line" dial-in sessions are meant to allow Russians to directly question the president.

A Kremlin source told the outlet the cancellation was linked to the Ukraine war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has postponed his annual marathon phone-in after Ukraine launched its counteroffensive to reclaim territory, Russian media reported. 

The "Direct Line" phone-in usually runs for hours and involves Putin fielding questions from ordinary Russian citizens about a range of social and policy issues.

It has been going since 2001, with Putin missing the event last year for the first time in 18 years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine began to suffer setbacks. He also missed the event in 2004.

A Kremlin source told Russian daily Kommersant that the 2023 event would likely be postponed until November or December, and linked the decision to the situation in Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have launched a counteroffensive to drive back the Russian invasion.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian state media agency Tass that no date had been set for the event.

If held in December, the phone-in would be timed for just before the likely launch of Putin's 2024 presidential campaign.

[Beleg85]

Artillery is heavily pounding Russians in Zaporizhia this night, more assaults coming. Reportedly, some RU TG challens (unnamed here) claim even up to 10 AFU brigaeds were gathered for this attack.

https://twitter.com/Artur_Micek/status/1667314004119769095

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

See my revised analysis of the info we have.  It would seem that Brads, minimum, were destroyed by some form of PGM.  However, they weren't destroyed at the same time.  The rest were something else.  Looks like 6 to mines, mechanical failure of the BMR-2?  Panic of the Leo2 crew?

Could be, I agree that this was not the only breach.  In fact it looks like they did get thru even if it took a few tries.  My sense is that RA cover was not that focused or dense.  There were likely some loses to Russian fires but most look like they were mine strikes (note blown track on one Bradley).  It could have also been more simply that the lead breaching team missed a mine - they are not 100%, and the follow on Leo hit it, happens.  The bridge head team got caught and looks like they tried to push.  They might have been leaning in because they thought the obstacle was halfway breached.

Regardless, I don’t necessarily think this is a UA clown show, at least without a lot more data.  It really looks like a western style breach that went wrong.  It is going to happen so no point in getting to upset.

[Armorgunner]

Now when its clear that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is underway. Even if Oryx has not uppdated. This was Top Secret, and nobody new about this! The Swedish millitary said on thursday (All media in Sweden Cited), that Sweden has educated 4 mechanized Companies in Sweden on CV 9040C (The best Swedish version with heavy MEXAS addon armour, and all of them are going to Ukraine) only used in Afghanistan earlier!. Around 400 Ukrainian soldiers, and that they now are in a secret place in Ukraine, to participate in the counteroffensive.

The 40 mm on the CV 9040C has the 3P round, which is a gamechanger in some aspects.

In english

Probably training on Strv 122 (Leopard 2A5+) took place in the same time. The millitary say, they educated Ukrainians on every vehicle that was sent to Ukraine.

So possible even Archer 155 mm Artillery with its 37,3 mile range (60km) and very fast shoot and scoot, and up to 6 rounds MRSI. Sweden sent 8 Archers to Ukraine, and several to UK. To let UK send more AS 90 Braveharts to Ukraine. Uk wanted some Archers, so they was not to thin on artillery! 

 

Translate from Swedish to your language: Ukrainska soldater i Sverige – tränas för strid | Nyheter | Expressen

Edited June 10, 2023 by Armorgunner

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Yes, but in a current war against a peer enemy can you even hope to shape the environment to the extent that a breaching vehicle is reasonably safe, with so many threats able to reliably kill a tank? Or do you have to have say a 20 of those hugely expensive monsters breaching side to side to have a hope than a few will live long enough to deliver a lane? We are not going to see the second variant in Zaporozhe, that's for sure

 

PS As a side note, the inevitably sad fate of "The Solitary Breacher" struck me as very romantic and waiting for its Wordsworth.  Something along the lines: "Will no one tell me why it burns?/Perhaps the engine covers glow/due to some well-aimed PGMs/ or bomb, delivered from a drone"

Nice PS.  Now that is the question we are all asking.  Can we even shape the environment enough to crack a deliberate defence in depth in this environment.  This is a major test to see if Defensive primacy is back.  Offence and Defence have handed off primacy since the beginning.  1494 - Offence is back, last until organizational reforms in mid-1600 and Defence is back.  7 Years War and more reforms along with changes to logistic and Offence is back, lasts thru 1812 until US Civil War but professional do not realize until 1914 when Defence came back with vengeance.  That lasts until 1940 and we are back to Offence…and is it pivoting again in Ukraine?  We shall see.