How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

but still I am worried 

[Eddy]

Hopefully it was still being used as a HQ. It's absolutely miles from the frontline.

[Huba]

203mm ? Did they find a cache of old 8inch M110 ammunition? Perhaps it could work with 2S7 somehow, given a proper charge. At one point there were even rumors about Krab crew managing to fire 152mm ammunition from it, so...

 

Edited June 9, 2023 by Huba

[Der Zeitgeist]

Yesterday wasn't a good one for Julian Röpcke already. Today, things deteriorated further.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

This is not looking good at all. In any way.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 9, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[Kraft]

25 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

This is not looking good at all. In any way.

 

 

 

 

Okay, before I lose my cool: am I mistaking that these are new Bradleys, that tried to drive around the older Bradleys, that have already succeeded in demining activity, and got blown up in the same line, which probably contains the mine belt? Or were those just not visible in the first pictures?

They all look abandoned after going over mines (which means easy pickings for drones with grenades and artillery, btw)

And please dont start with the "its an attack losses are standard" what makes me angry is that this appears like a zhukov style drive forward and explode command, not a battle. Especially since this appears to be a 2nd attempt at driving through there. Maybe a 3rd "probe" will do.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Kraft

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

Don't mistake what Simonyan is doing. She is as plugged in as it is possible to be with Putin's circle and clearly that circle has decided that with the offensive that's starting and the resources Russia has to stop it a status quo result would be a pretty good outcome for Russia. Her job is to make that outcome seem reasonable in the domestic Russian propaganda space. Thus, the trial balloon.

As was mentioned, the propaganda empire is definitely loyal to Putin, but it is still populated by powerful people in their own right.  There is NO doubt that Simonyan is reading from a script, so to speak.  She is not acting out on her own, even if she has some latitude about the specific words she uses.  Like so many things in the Soviet/Russian world, the fact this happened means something.  We just can't be exactly sure what and whose agenda is being pushed.

The thing that interested me most about this trial balloon is how negative it was towards the Russian government policy thus far.  It not only questioned the prospects for coming out ahead this summer, but it suggested that none of this was worth doing.  In fact, that the territories themselves have no value to the Russian people.

I dunno, I can think of a lot better ways to have worded things to have tested the water.  Yet it seems the sledgehammer was employed.  So much so that the RU Nats want one of the Regime's most prominent propagandist to be violently taken off the stage.  That doesn't seem like an ideal situation to me.

Steve

[SteelRain]

21 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Yesterday wasn't a good one for Julian Röpcke already. Today, things deteriorated further.

 

More evidence that Röpcke's self perception as a military expert and his actual knowledge of military things don't really fit together. Maybe we should donate a copy of CM:SF2 to him. If we want him to have a mental breakdown within the first 5 minutes playing the game lets chose CM:BS

[Bearstronaut]

17 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Okay, before I lose my cool: am I mistaking that these are new Bradleys, that tried to drive around the older Bradleys, that have already succeeded in demining activity, and got blown up in the same line, which probably contains the mine belt? Or were those just not visible in the first pictures?

They all look abandoned after going over mines (which means easy pickings for drones with grenades and artillery, btw)

And please dont start with the "its an attack losses are standard" what makes me angry is that this appears like a zhukov style drive forward and explode command, not a battle. Especially since this appears to be a 2nd attempt at driving through there. Maybe a 3rd "probe" will do.

You are reacting to fragmentary reports of relatively minor losses. Did you seriously expect the ZSU to break through a prepared defense belt in all locations without losses in a day or so? If ZSU units are still struggling in the first line of fortifications this time next week I would start to get worried but for now just chill and realize you aren't seeing the full picture. 

[Kraft]

5 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

You are reacting to fragmentary reports of relatively minor losses. Did you seriously expect the ZSU to break through a prepared defense belt in all locations without losses in a day or so? If ZSU units are still struggling in the first line of fortifications this time next week I would start to get worried but for now just chill and realize you aren't seeing the full picture. 

I specifially mentioned, i know losses are invitable, what im talking about is vuhledar style attacks, that achieve nothing but kill crews.

Driving over it the first time, ok, a 2nd time? Right next to the other killed vehicles? People had a good laugh when Russia did it now this falls under a normal, expected per the book military command?

Inb4: i know its not the whole front.. - but does that excuse this?

Edited June 9, 2023 by Kraft

[SteelRain]

54 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Okay, before I lose my cool: am I mistaking that these are new Bradleys, that tried to drive around the older Bradleys, that have already succeeded in demining activity, and got blown up in the same line, which probably contains the mine belt? Or were those just not visible in the first pictures?

They all look abandoned after going over mines (which means easy pickings for drones with grenades and artillery, btw)

And please dont start with the "its an attack losses are standard" what makes me angry is that this appears like a zhukov style drive forward and explode command, not a battle.

I've read that the column was struck behind the frontline while on the move. Is Russia employing FASCAM? If so, a fire mission in front of the column combined with a drone observing, airsupport and an artillery barrage would be a nasty surprise.

PS: Image to raise moral

 

Edited June 9, 2023 by SteelRain
added image

[keas66]

6 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

You are reacting to fragmentary reports of relatively minor losses. Did you seriously expect the ZSU to break through a prepared defense belt in all locations without losses in a day or so? If ZSU units are still struggling in the first line of fortifications this time next week I would start to get worried but for now just chill and realize you aren't seeing the full picture. 

These sorts of reactions are delusional - Just stop it guys - The only thing that matters is the  operational level goals at this point . We should not be freaking out about tactical losses - these are guaranteed to happen .  I mean seriously - please restraint the doom and gloom posts and  just thanks your lucky stars you are not at the leading edge of these attacks . The Ukrainians are  the ones shedding their blood to retake their own territory back from the orcs  . Give them some room please ! .

Edited June 9, 2023 by keas66

[Rokko]

40 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

This is not looking good at all. In any way.

 

 

 

 

 

That's 10 out of, what? 50 delivered Bradleys? So 20% of all Bradleys Ukraine has to drive over a minefield in the first defensive line and give a few Ka-52s some target practice...

[Der Zeitgeist]

10 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

You are reacting to fragmentary reports of relatively minor losses.

I wouldn't call 20% of the Ukrainian Bradley inventory "minor".

Edited June 9, 2023 by Der Zeitgeist

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I specifially mentioned, i know losses are invitable, what im talking about is vuhledar style attacks, that achieve nothing but kill crews.

Driving over it the first time, ok, a 2nd time? Right next to the other killed vehicles? People had a good laugh when Russia did it now this falls under a normal, expected per the book military command?

Inb4: i know its not the whole front.. - but does that excuse this?

Exactly. Losses are expected. 

These sort of losses should never happen

[cesmonkey]

Another War Gonzo update, for those that care:
https://t.me/wargonzo/13118

Quote

️The situation in Zaporozhye at 19:00 Moscow time️

On the Orekhov-Rabotino line, our troops managed to drive the enemy out of half of the positions he occupied. Currently, the fighting continues.

The enemy actively uses mortars and tanks, but mainly infantry. By the nature of its work and equipment, we can say that the APU threw the most trained units into battle.

The precise work of the Russian artillery today added to the number of destroyed armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

We continue to follow developments on the Zaporizhia front.

 

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

This is not looking good at all. In any way.

I think we can all agree with that statement.  Here is what I see from the evidence and discussion here:

1.  Two deminers (Leopard and BMR-2) led the way for a large column of (mostly) Bradleys.

2.  Sensibly, two deminers were used along the same path so as to reduce the chance of leaving an intact mine in the path.

3.  At some point the column was taken under directed fire.  It would appear a Bradley was destroyed by a Russian ATGM from an attack helicopter from perhaps 10km away (as predicted here).

4.  General confusion, artillery, other ATGM strikes... I don't know what... happened and the column decided to retreat.

5.  The Leopard dropped its plow and wound up backing up into an already destroyed Bradley.  It either became stuck or was hit or something, but the crew abandoned it.

6.  With the path blocked by destroyed/disabled vehicles, some of the Brads turned around and tried to go around the blockage.  In doing so they drove into uncleared fields, taking their chances of hitting a mine vs. being hit standing still.

7.  Unfortunately, this was a very dense minefield and lots more were disabled due to mines, though we have no idea what other fires were going on at the time so it's unclear if this is the only thing that took out additional Brads.

8.  The ramps are down on most of the Brads, indicating that the dismounts managed to get out.  I did not see any bodies scattered around, which seems to indicate that mines were the primary cause or destruction and not artillery or ATGMs.

 

It's easy to armchair general this thing to death, but I think it is OK to conclude that this was a flawed plan that the Russians were able to exploit.

I see the primary flaw being that there was a single safe path for at least 8x Bradleys.  Someone should have asked the question "what happens if we come under fire and one or more vehicles are disabled?  How do we maneuver out of a kill sack in the middle of a minefield?"  If someone had asked this question then the answer should have been "we take catastrophic losses for no gain".  That should have prompted a reassessment of the wisdom of conducting the attack in this way.

I do not understand why the paths weren't plowed while the Brads waited.  If the mine clearers came under directed fire they had more of a chance of escaping without a bunch of Brads blocking their way.  And if they were lost in the effort, it would be just them instead of them AND 2x Platoon's worth of IFVs.

The narrative is still confused and the context very fuzzy still (we have other Leos and Brads near treelines.  Was this the same action and took place before this?  I think so).  However, this was a botched attack that gives the Russians a major propaganda win.  Not that I think propaganda victories win wars, but it sure doesn't help Ukraine to have this out there right now.

Steve

 

[billbindc]

12 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I specifially mentioned, i know losses are invitable, what im talking about is vuhledar style attacks, that achieve nothing but kill crews.

Driving over it the first time, ok, a 2nd time? Right next to the other killed vehicles? People had a good laugh when Russia did it now this falls under a normal, expected per the book military command?

Inb4: i know its not the whole front.. - but does that excuse this?

Hearing it was helicopter insertion attack well behind the line. Good? No. Utterly inexcusable? No.

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, Rokko said:

That's 10 out of, what? 50 delivered Bradleys? So 20% of all Bradleys Ukraine has to drive over a minefield in the first defensive line and give a few Ka-52s some target practice...

The mid Kherson offensive vibes are getting pretty strong around here.

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, billbindc said:

The mid Kherson offensive vibes are getting pretty strong around here.

Exactly.  There was the reporting (still not well documented) that Ukraine took huge losses in Davydiv Brid and had to retreat.  Yet Russia in the end was defeated in that operation.  I personally don't think Kharkiv did much to help, at best hastening the timeframe for Russian withdrawal.

Steve

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The mid Kherson offensive vibes are getting pretty strong around here.

Looking at the longer arc of the war the Russians are going to really miss the ~50 KA-52s they lost up to this points, and however many of the crews they didn't get back.

[The_Capt]

48 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

This is not looking good at all. In any way.

 

 

 

 

 

Well that is what a minefield breaching operation going very wrong looks like.  

Before everyone freaks out the vehicles that kept pushing are supposed to do that.  Backing out is just asking to die and impossible to do in column, he saw the RA prove this over and over again.  If your breaching vehicle takes a hit - and that appears to be the Leo, you keep pushing even if it means taking casualties.  We would do the exact same thing.  I mean what are the options?  Stop, wait for help or talk things over while the enemy kills you inside a minefield?  Back out along the one cleared path…while the enemy kills you in a minefield?  Nope you push.  Difference between the UA and the RA is that the Leo has a mine plow on the front (which is odd, that is the deep end of clearance, they should be sticking with rollers).  The RA was just straight pushing.

What is interesting is again the lack of any real RA artillery.  No big craters or impact marks.  Vehicles look like they took mobility hits (except that one) and the crews bailed and ran.  When we do these ops each Combat Team would do two breaches and accept that one is going to die.  This is the video from the failed one.

We said this from the start - western kit does not come with magic wizard shields that allow them to float above the ground and drive their enemies before them.  They blow up just the same as Russian kit.  We were always going to see this, and we will likely see more.  Russian info sphere is going to push out any and all of these that it can.  So buckle in and put your helmets on.

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I wouldn't call 20% of the Ukrainian Bradley inventory "minor".

This is one of the most problematic aspects of the West's equipping of Ukrainian forces... small numbers of easily identifiable vehicles whose total inventory count is largely known.

If this were 8x BMP-2 we would still be sitting here critical of the losses, but those 8x BMPs would be out of hundreds in use.  Losing 8 at one time, therefore, has little impact on the quality of the remaining force.

Losing 20% of your best IFVs and a similar % of your best MBTs in one field at one time is a totally different story.

Steve

[Beleg85]

Uncharacteristically, Wolski is quite calm and cheering people up:

And a final thought, lest I be misunderstood because of throwing paralyzed UA equipment every now and then: For now, in the audiovisual material from the RUS propaganda, we have confirmed the loss of Ukrainian forces of the following size: - tank companies - 2x IFV companies - MRAP company In total, a battalion (31-44 machines) of "techniques" .

It may be underestimated by 1/3, but we have no evidence to prove it. And here's something that may come as a surprise to the readers - it does not mean that Ukraine's Armed Forces suffered large losses. On the contrary. Of the identified 6 battalions in combat and 5 companies, circa 14% of the "technique" was lost after two days, confirmed by audiovisual material. In the scale of the identified 5 brigades that deployed the above-mentioned forces, it is only 5% of the technology. In difficult terrain, in minefields under fire from artillery and ATGM groups and attack helicopters. These are noticeable losses, but they do not bleed the units, and they do not even lead to a decrease in offensive capabilities.

This level of losses is OK - as scary as it sounds. These brigades suffered symptomatic losses after only three months of training: 33BZ, 37BZmot, 47BZ, etc. These are not the most valuable AUs. The elite ones are waiting "for something" in other regions. As I wrote: it is just beginning and what you can see is not the main attack, it has not even reached the main line of defense of RUS and ... it is not said that this is/will be the main direction of the attack. This will become clear. Sharing request.

Not sure if he is right thoough, losing so much priceless top armour in break does not speak highly of tactical skils.

Also Russians seem to gain morale, Leos/Bradleys were highly mythologized. At least those not on frontlines share photos and inhale them like crazy.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Beleg85

[kimbosbread]

So this might be an incredibly stupid question, but why aren’t the mine plows/mine clearers unmanned and controlled by a wire or laser or radio by following vehicles? Is it because mine clearing is not something the US expects to do, and the old ways are fine?

Edited June 9, 2023 by kimbosbread