How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@riptides @TheVulture

 He said "I was captured in Zaporizhzhia oblast, Tokmak". He is 35 y.o., 503rd motor-rifle regiment, 19th motor-rifle division (Northers Osetia), 58th CAA. 

Tokmak is a town, of course, the center of district in Zaporizhzhzia oblast.

I have a feeling the POW was talking about where he his unit is based and said that because he didn't have a clue where he was deployed to at the time of capture.

Steve

[sburke]

Can't resist- headline on that shark attack in Egypt. - Tiger shark kills Russian swimmer in 'meat grinder' attack

Russians and meat grinders.  it is a thing.

Tiger shark kills Russian swimmer in 'meat grinder' attack (yahoo.com)

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, sburke said:

Can't resist- headline on that shark attack in Egypt. - Tiger shark kills Russian swimmer in 'meat grinder' attack

Russians and meat grinders.  it is a thing.

Tiger shark kills Russian swimmer in 'meat grinder' attack (yahoo.com)

And then...

 

[Battlefront.com]

Now that the combat for the daylight hours of June the 9th are coming to a close, I have noticed that Rybar has nothing new to crow about.  If there was something similar to the Leo/Brad slaughter he'd be one of the first to gloat about.  Instead, there's nothing but the usual pro-Russian nonsense distractions that have nothing to do with the war itself.

In fact, Rybar went out of his way to challenge/criticize Oryx for how it was classifying the "destroyed column" vehicles.  So not only is there nothing new for Rybar to pound his chest over, he's now trying to preserve the illusion of total destruction yesterday instead of mix of destroyed and recoverable vehicles.  That's telling.

He summed up June 9th as follows:

Quote

Ukraine has significant losses, exceeding the "classic figure".

Modern weapons are not enough yet, but the defense industry is developing rapidly, and all the tasks assigned to the defense will be completed.

Ukrainian troops did not achieve their goals in any sector due to the courage of Russian soldiers and the correct organization of troops.

It can be argued that the Ukrainian offensive has begun, as they are using strategic reserves.

All counteroffensives undertaken have failed, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine still have offensive potential.

https://t.me/rybar/48295

While he is once again reminding people that Ukraine's offensive is by no means over, the obviously is deliberately making it seem like everything is under control.  Which, if it was, does he lead with a line about Russia not having sufficient weapons and that (somehow) Russian industry can fix that before this counter offensive is decided?

Steve

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Short clip reportedly from Lobkove, note IR strobe on his helmet.

Full video in three parts. 

Approaching and 60 mm moratr fire, adjusting by drone. Afetr first two shots the shell hit a yard in village, so mortar crew got order fire in this way with light corrections

Running through poppies into the villalge and seizing it under not so intensive shelling, but commander ordered to all seek a shelter in the cells. 

 

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Agree fully, though I do think we're seeing yet another example of traditional doctrine needing to be overhauled given ISR and PGM realities.

We also have to continually remind ourselves that the Russians are showing most of the information due to Ukraine's info blackout.  We're not likely to have the Russians show us their counter attack/reinforcement columns that have been zapped by Ukraine (there is one specific report of such an action).

The fact is that Russia's lines are thin and they can't hold out indefinitely.  They will either die in place or have to withdraw without reinforcements.  Russia doesn't have much in the way of reinforcements and what they do have has to move in the open just like Ukraine.  There are ample opportunities for payback.

Steve

It absolutely sucks for Ukraine that this happened, but the long term upside for NATO is that this is the kind of unpleasant event that can actually drive changes in doctrine.

Edited June 9, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

I agree with this.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Some attention is being paid to the Crimean area!  Multiple videos circulating about explosions:

 

Steve

[Haiduk]

-1 TOS-1 on Zaporizhzhia front

 

[Harmon Rabb]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

-1 TOS-1 on Zaporizhzhia front

 

Tos it in the trash!

 

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Some attention is being paid to the Crimean area!  Multiple videos circulating about explosions:

 

Steve

 

Somebody posted this above. Location - Shchaslyvtsyve village. Strike at childrens summer camp, vere reportedly some HQ was establised, where Putin (or his double) has visited recently

Edited June 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Repelling of Russian armored counter-attack somewhere on southern direction

 

[Haiduk]

Russian "Lancet" destroyed wooden Leopard %) 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Breaking news!  Historical revisionists watching the war unfold in Ukraine have determined that the Coalition Forces did not succeed in taking over Iraq in 2003.  They cite as their evidence the disaster of the battle for Nasiriyah, where the US forces lost 8x AAV and 15+ other vehicles.  This disaster clearly demonstrates the impossibility that the US, and its allies, went on to win the conventional war in Iraq:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Nasiriyah

Steve

[Haiduk]

Work of tank crew of 3rd assault brigade.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Now what could have been done is a night silent breach and then you crash the obstacle.  But obviously they had to go mechanical.  A well trained crew can do this op in 2-3 mins…unless it goes wrong…which It did.

 

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 Now explosive breaching would be a better solution but I am not sure UA has that.  And if they do they are likely saving it for the main assault.

There have been reports of explosive breaching in the past few days, so it is being used by other Ukr units.

I am wondering though - assuming it was an AT ambush by KA 52 , shooting Vikrh ATGMS over their max range of approx. 10 km. it is actually a pretty long range for a direct AT weapon. The Ukrainian guys might have been expecting to come into RUS weapons range say 5km closer to the Russian position. So my question is: would you be actually doing the explosive breach for the entire 10 km approach march? I don't think a MCLIC would cover 10 kms at a stretch. So, assuming the explosive breaching equipment would be available, would they be shooting MCLIC over MCLIC for the entire 10 km, or start this only when closer to the objective?

 

 

[Haiduk]

The same episode when 59th mot.inf. brigade assault of enemy position near Staromykhailivka, posted a day or two ago, but from point of view of HMMWV gunner

 

Edited June 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Interesting perspective. Quite a contrarian opinion to many, for example, Finnish officer commentators.

Well you get what you paid for.  I have been a military engineer for 34 years and was an armoured engineer troops commander a long time ago who ran these sorts of drills.  Based on the video snippet I saw it looks a lot like a mech clearance drill that went bad.

I do not see any significant artillery strikes near enough to those vehicles to be a factor but ATGMs could definitely be a factor (although none look like they were hit).

I mean if there is video of the Bradley’s free wheeling, which is a very bad idea, that is what a mine roller is for.

[Battlefront.com]

FPV drone smashes right into the back of a Russian soldier, but it didn't quite kill him.  The SVD fired by his comrade probably finished the job:

Steve

[Kraft]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Repelling of Russian armored counter-attack somewhere on southern direction

 

Supposedly month old footage from near Pisky

Quote

 

48.060603, 37.623952

You can see the road they come off - identifiable by the mini-bridge at 48.057359, 37.641520 - and field they cross, and the stoney bit ahead of the track chokepoint, and the curly stoney bit to the left as well.

The Russians are coming off the incomplete motorway section, crossing the field going north/nw before getting bottlenecked.

 

 

 

[Haiduk]

It's Ukraine %)

 

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

 

There have been reports of explosive breaching in the past few days, so it is being used by other Ukr units.

I am wondering though - assuming it was an AT ambush by KA 52 , shooting Vikrh ATGMS over their max range of approx. 10 km. it is actually a pretty long range for a direct AT weapon. The Ukrainian guys might have been expecting to come into RUS weapons range say 5km closer to the Russian position. So my question is: would you be actually doing the explosive breach for the entire 10 km approach march? I don't think a MCLIC would cover 10 kms at a stretch. So, assuming the explosive breaching equipment would be available, would they be shooting MCLIC over MCLIC for the entire 10 km, or start this only when closer to the objective?

 

 

No, recon should be doing their job and finding the minefield edges (hell they have multi-spectral cameras) and then a breaching operation is designed to:

1.  Establish a Force in Place on the friendly side to establish fire and overmatch.   In this day and age we would be talking UAS and deep fire support

2. Breaching teams - so explosive line charges.  Lengths vary but hundreds of meters.

3. Bridge head force - to secure far side

4. Break out force - to break out.

5.  In place and trafficking force to stay on the obstacle to keep it open for follow on ech.

The KA -52 is an AD problem that should be sorted before on tries to breach.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

How that helicopters are causing damage, will UKR be able to get more AD in the fight when & where it's needed? 

Those KA 52 are fighting like the Western attack helicopters were supposed to attack in the 1970s and 1980s, hovering behind terrain obstacles and popping up just to shoot an ATGM. Even the flimsy BO 105 were supposed to be able to survive fighting like that. Now Kamovs are additionally using the 10 km range of their Vikhr missiles.  No Manpads has that range and the Ukrainians do not have any vehicle-based SHORAD like Tunguska able to accompany tanks and APCs . I guess the answer is Ukrainians will have to suck it up.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

Yeah, the fundamental problem doesn’t change in that you need a bunch of them. Does mine clearing require a lot of mass on the clearing vehicle, or could you make it much smaller and use a jackhammer or electromagnet to trigger mines?

So mech clearing is done three ways:

Roller - big fat steel wheels on the front of a tank or AFV.  These can take several hits but are really designed to detect the edge of a minefield and then prove it after the plow goes through.

Plough - like the name suggests.  They dig in a couple deep tracks that dig under the mine and flip them out of the way.  The rollers come next to prove.  Ploughs cannot take too many hits so we save em specifically for known minefields.

Flail - big whipping chains.  This is normally for area clearances and not done in contact (unlike WW2).  They make a gawd awful amount of signature.

So rollers are freakin heavy so AFVs and tanks.  Ploughs really are designed to be on tanks. And flails are specialized.  The unmanned versions I have seen tend to be smaller and are for clearing AP lanes but I do know there some larger ones out there.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think we're seeing another example of old doctrine needing an update due to ISR and PGMs.

In the old days the attacker would suppress the enemy's ability to react, then rush boldly ahead before the enemy could get their act together and fight back.  This traditional approach relies on the ability to blind and incapacity the enemy long enough for a rush forward approach to have some reasonable chance of success.

Ukraine has proved MANY times that this approach doesn't work if the defender has ISR and PGMs.  The multiple failures to cross the Donets river are the most blatant examples, but the Vuhledar attacks getting smashed are probably more relevant.  Lots of smaller examples, mostly because Russia has fought only on a smaller level.

Now Russia has done exactly the same thing to Ukraine that it has had done to it many times before.  Ukrainians should have anticipated this better.

Ukraine was moving through a gray zone, not through active defensive line.  They could have driven the mine plows through without support and been no worse off.  In this case a drone spotting them and a rotary aircraft well outside of MBT range popping off a PGM.  No advantage of having the Brads there in terms of breaching the minefield.

If Russia had instead dropped a bunch of artillery on the column, same thing... no advantage to having the Brads.

ATGM nests positioned in the gray zone?  The Brads could have helped in that case in theory only.  In reality if the Russians set up a kill sack with ATGMs the most likely outcome is pretty much the same that happened.  Which means there was unlikely to be a practical advantage with the Brads there.

Shock/surprise?  No chance of that.  Russia knows (roughly) where the Ukrainians are going to come and have ISR in the air narrowing it down.  Again, no advantage with the Brads there.

So, taken all together, I see no upside potential to the Brads being a part of the breaching op.  They should have stayed back, waited for the breachers to have gone as far as they thought they could go, then advanced at top speed instead of the slower pace of following a breaching vehicle.  Ideally the breachers would make a couple of lanes instead of just the one.

Steve

Except the part where in the video I cannot see arty or ATGMs.  Those look like mine strikes to me. The threat was there but it is still looks a little light on covering fires.

Breaching is a one way trip under fire.  The new ISR dynamic makes it worse not better as your opponent can spot and react faster.  So sending a lone breacher out there and then waiting for the bridge head force you are giving more time to react.  If you are spotted under PGMs etc before hand you are dead anyway.  In fact if your opponent has that level of ISR you either need to change that or breach somewhere else.  In your scenario the breached dies and then the Bradley’s sit around waiting for another breacher system and there are damn few of these to begin with.

This highlights the requirement to shape the battle space and erode an opponent a lot before attempting breaching operations - not lone breaching suicide missions.  From the video I cannot tell if the UA did that and they just ran into mines and kept pushing because they knew the defender would figure it out eventually? Or if they did not effectively shape the space then they were pretty much screwed at the start line.

I am thinking mine strikes because those vehicles are still intact (except one) and not all burning. 

Edited June 9, 2023 by The_Capt