How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I do not understand why the paths weren't plowed while the Brads waited.  If the mine clearers came under directed fire they had more of a chance of escaping without a bunch of Brads blocking their way.  And if they were lost in the effort, it would be just them instead of them AND 2x Platoon's worth of IFVs.

And now we can talk about engineering in CM.  

They go with them to establish a bridgehead on the other side as quickly as possible.  Waiting for the clearing vehicle gives the enemy time to dial in/c-move, minute count here. They can also provide some direct fire support in breach, but I always questioned that one.  The bridge head can push out and then support follow on main forces.

If the clearance vehicle comes under fire there is no “backing out”.  Drivers cannot see the cleared lane, vehicles are going to move even slower, or simply risk slipping out of the safe lane and hitting a mine.

Now what could have been done is a night silent breach and then you crash the obstacle.  But obviously they had to go mechanical.  A well trained crew can do this op in 2-3 mins…unless it goes wrong…which It did.

[Vet 0369]

22 hours ago, DesertFox said:

We don't know what caused this cluster duck of vehicles bunching up in such a small area. I guess the UKR is as aware as we are that everything more than three vehicles at the same place is a huge invitation for arty. Or as our old Spiess (Company Sergeant Major) said "Atomziel" "nuclear target".

LOL, it seems to be pretty standard in Western militaries. I remember the Squad Leaders and Platoon Sergeants, myself included continually “admonishing” the men to “Spread out! One grenade will get you all!”

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

So this might be an incredibly stupid question, but why aren’t the mine plows/mine clearers are unmanned or at least controlled by a wire or laser by following vehicles? Is it because mine clearing is not something the US expects to do, and the old ways are fine?

That capability exists.  Not going to solve this problem unless you had a fleet of them.  If you did you could likely overwhelm the defences on the minefield and then crash it in multiple places.

People are wondering what the hell the UA is doing?  Exactly what we trained them to do, this is a western mechanized breach.  Now explosive breaching would be a better solution but I am not sure UA has that.  And if they do they are likely saving it for the main assault.

[dan/california]

Quote

 

9th Armoured Brigade was forced to make its attack silhouetted by the early daylight. As dawn came on 2 November, tank after tank was hit by the German 88 mm guns that kept firing through seven air attacks. The 9th never reached their objective. In fact, they took 75 percent casualties and lost 102 of their 128 tanks. Nevertheless, they breached the gun line and the 1st Armoured Division of X Corps, under the command of Raymond Briggs, was now able to engage.^{[citation needed]}

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9th_Armoured_Brigade_(United_Kingdom)}

 

We forget how god awful the bill can be. Montgomery had to push an entire brigade into a suicidal attack to break the German lines at El Alamein. And this was after a ~week of pressing hard. I think that battle is considered a success historically speaking. There is more fighting to come, and a lot more bleeding. We just have to see where we are in a month.

[The_MonkeyKing]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well that is what a minefield breaching operation going very wrong looks like.  

Before everyone freaks out the vehicles that kept pushing are supposed to do that.  Backing out is just asking to die and impossible to do in column, he saw the RA prove this over and over again.  If your breaching vehicle takes a hit - and that appears to be the Leo, you keep pushing even if it means taking casualties.  We would do the exact same thing.  I mean what are the options?  Stop, wait for help or talk things over while the enemy kills you inside a minefield?  Back out along the one cleared path…while the enemy kills you in a minefield?  Nope you push.  Difference between the UA and the RA is that the Leo has a mine plow on the front (which is odd, that is the deep end of clearance, they should be sticking with rollers).  The RA was just straight pushing.

Interesting perspective. Quite a contrarian opinion to many, for example, Finnish officer commentators.

[The_MonkeyKing]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think we can all agree with that statement.  Here is what I see from the evidence and discussion here:

1.  Two deminers (Leopard and BMR-2) led the way for a large column of (mostly) Bradleys.

2.  Sensibly, two deminers were used along the same path so as to reduce the chance of leaving an intact mine in the path.

3.  At some point the column was taken under directed fire.  It would appear a Bradley was destroyed by a Russian ATGM from an attack helicopter from perhaps 10km away (as predicted here).

4.  General confusion, artillery, other ATGM strikes... I don't know what... happened and the column decided to retreat.

5.  The Leopard dropped its plow and wound up backing up into an already destroyed Bradley.  It either became stuck or was hit or something, but the crew abandoned it.

6.  With the path blocked by destroyed/disabled vehicles, some of the Brads turned around and tried to go around the blockage.  In doing so they drove into uncleared fields, taking their chances of hitting a mine vs. being hit standing still.

7.  Unfortunately, this was a very dense minefield and lots more were disabled due to mines, though we have no idea what other fires were going on at the time so it's unclear if this is the only thing that took out additional Brads.

8.  The ramps are down on most of the Brads, indicating that the dismounts managed to get out.  I did not see any bodies scattered around, which seems to indicate that mines were the primary cause or destruction and not artillery or ATGMs.

 

It's easy to armchair general this thing to death, but I think it is OK to conclude that this was a flawed plan that the Russians were able to exploit.

I see the primary flaw being that there was a single safe path for at least 8x Bradleys.  Someone should have asked the question "what happens if we come under fire and one or more vehicles are disabled?  How do we maneuver out of a kill sack in the middle of a minefield?"  If someone had asked this question then the answer should have been "we take catastrophic losses for no gain".  That should have prompted a reassessment of the wisdom of conducting the attack in this way.

I do not understand why the paths weren't plowed while the Brads waited.  If the mine clearers came under directed fire they had more of a chance of escaping without a bunch of Brads blocking their way.  And if they were lost in the effort, it would be just them instead of them AND 2x Platoon's worth of IFVs.

The narrative is still confused and the context very fuzzy still (we have other Leos and Brads near treelines.  Was this the same action and took place before this?  I think so).  However, this was a botched attack that gives the Russians a major propaganda win.  Not that I think propaganda victories win wars, but it sure doesn't help Ukraine to have this out there right now.

Steve

 

One Finnish officer's speculation:

"Well, those 3 Bradleys have driven into the minefield without clearance help. Later, a trench was cleared for that mine band that was detected in this way with a clearing wagon, but the opening was affected by artillery or PST and the opening was blocked by damaging/destroying the other two wagons"

source: https://twitter.com/MMaenpaa1/status/1667161427059130372

 

[Eddy]

Worth a read I think. Seems to be a fair and balanced report.

[Vet 0369]

18 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Dramatic footage of what it is like for grunts on the ground to be subjected to an incendiary attack:

Steve

Ug! “Willy Peter” is really nasty stuff on troops. Get hit with a really small piece of it and it’ll literally burn through you unless you use mud to cut off it’s oxygen supply.

[danfrodo]

So clearly the losing of some vehicles is the end of world.  Or it is not.  Or maybe. 

The question is what is currently being gained by the men & equipment all over the various axes of attack.  How much of RU arty stockpile has been used up and how much of it hit by CB?  How much of RU strength was in the first lines of defense that have been breached?  How's morale farther back?  How much are the remaining lines mined & manned? 

How that helicopters are causing damage, will UKR be able to get more AD in the fight when & where it's needed? 

Now close are UKR forces to being able to unhinge sections of RU defenses w/o fighting for them -- meaning flanking RU forces such that they retreat on their own (as mentioned above by Steve).

DAN/CA -- I was also thinking of EL Alamein for these operations.  Knowing germans were in a world of scarcity, Monty (who I generally dislike) calculated that if he kept pushing they would break.  Took 10 days + a major change in plan (moving mobile forces to the north end of line) but once broken the germans were disasterously unhinged. 

And what happens if UKR just reaches Tokmak -- the east-west rail line is thereby cut.  Very very serious for RU forces to the west of there.

Edited June 9, 2023 by danfrodo

[cesmonkey]

33 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Worth a read I think. Seems to be a fair and balanced report.

This is just a transcript from a video from the Reporting From Ukraine YouTube channel.
I like watching his daily videos, but they definitely have a Ukraine is "doing everything smartly" bias, as opposed to the War in Ukraine YouTube channel which has a "unfortunately, the Ukraine military leadership is brain-dead" bias.

[Harmon Rabb]

MAKS 23 says this video is a few days old.

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

MAKS 23 says this video is a few days old.

OMG the entire RU army is running away!!!!!!!  If losing those bradleys means defeat for UKR then surely this means defeat for RU.  I try to live by extrapolating all anecdotes to cover an entire subject. 

But seriously, posts like this  do help us to remember that RU taking losses also.  UKR reporting 36 arty systems destroyed yesterday -- if that's true and it continues, then RU is doomed.  W/o arty support these lines cannot possibly hold.

 

[kimbosbread]

Combat range of a ka52 is ~300 freedom miles, so that means any helicopter base supporting defense is in storm shadow range. Presumably UA knows where they are based, so that might be a nice juicy target.

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

That capability exists.  Not going to solve this problem unless you had a fleet of them.  If you did you could likely overwhelm the defences on the minefield and then crash it in multiple places.

People are wondering what the hell the UA is doing?  Exactly what we trained them to do, this is a western mechanized breach.  Now explosive breaching would be a better solution but I am not sure UA has that.  And if they do they are likely saving it for the main assault.

Yeah, the fundamental problem doesn’t change in that you need a bunch of them. Does mine clearing require a lot of mass on the clearing vehicle, or could you make it much smaller and use a jackhammer or electromagnet to trigger mines?

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Doesn't look like a car wash to me.

This guy posts typical pro-Russian manipulative content. I doubt this video is from Uman'. Attack happened, when it was still light. No reports from local chats about such explosions. You can see trees without leaves on background, so likely this video filmed early or even year ago.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Eddy]

26 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

This is just a transcript from a video from the Reporting From Ukraine YouTube channel.

Haha I thought some of it was familiar. I watch that YT channel every morning. Guess I need more coffee first thing  

[The_MonkeyKing]

38 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So clearly the losing of some vehicles is the end of world.  Or it is not.  Or maybe. 

The question is what is currently being gained by the men & equipment all over the various axes of attack.  How much of RU arty stockpile has been used up and how much of it hit by CB?  How much of RU strength was in the first lines of defense that have been breached?  How's morale farther back?  How much are the remaining lines mined & manned? 

How that helicopters are causing damage, will UKR be able to get more AD in the fight when & where it's needed? 

Now close are UKR forces to being able to unhinge sections of RU defenses w/o fighting for them -- meaning flanking RU forces such that they retreat on their own (as mentioned above by Steve).

DAN/CA -- I was also thinking of EL Alamein for these operations.  Knowing germans were in a world of scarcity, Monty (who I generally dislike) calculated that if he kept pushing they would break.  Took 10 days + a major change in plan (moving mobile forces to the north end of line) but once broken the germans were disasterously unhinged. 

And what happens if UKR just reaches Tokmak -- the east-west rail line is thereby cut.  Very very serious for RU forces to the west of there.

I don't think people are shocked of the losses, but the way those losses happened. 

The biggest unknowns where how these yet to meet forces would perform. Yearly indicators now point to somewhat competent Russians and struggling Ukrainians.

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Damaged Leo 2A4 evacuated

 

Already repaired. Crewman says on second video "I've changed rolls, it's not BMW of course, but... it's fu..g fine"

 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I don't think people are shocked of the losses, but the way those losses happened. 

The biggest unknowns where how these yet to meet forces would perform. Yearly indicators now point to somewhat competent Russians and struggling Ukrainians.

Yes, I agree, I am shocked also that this column got caught so flat-footed.  I was not aiming comments at folks on this forum, who all know this can happen.  It is disturbing, but it's (so far) just one data point, one column.  Hopefully it's an anomaly.

[Bil Hardenberger]

The losses are concerning, but a lot of this Ukraine counter-attack force is green and they are still learning, mistakes are going to be made. I would only start to really get concerned if this trend continues.. but I have faith that they are smart enough to make the adjustments required in order to succeed.

This is a very small part of the entire force in action and is in a very concentrated area... I would suggest standing by and letting things play out; I suspect a lot of good news is going to come our way very soon.

[kevinkin]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-iran-drone-factory-ukraine-war-dfdfb4602fecb0fe65935cb24c82421a

“This is a full-scale defense partnership that is harmful to Ukraine, to Iran’s neighbors, and to the international community,” Kirby said. “We are continuing to use all the tools at our disposal to expose and disrupt these activities including by sharing this with the public — and we are prepared to do more.”

A a pact between devils. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

And now we can talk about engineering in CM.  

They go with them to establish a bridgehead on the other side as quickly as possible.  Waiting for the clearing vehicle gives the enemy time to dial in/c-move, minute count here. They can also provide some direct fire support in breach, but I always questioned that one.  The bridge head can push out and then support follow on main forces.

If the clearance vehicle comes under fire there is no “backing out”.  Drivers cannot see the cleared lane, vehicles are going to move even slower, or simply risk slipping out of the safe lane and hitting a mine.

Now what could have been done is a night silent breach and then you crash the obstacle.  But obviously they had to go mechanical.  A well trained crew can do this op in 2-3 mins…unless it goes wrong…which It did.

I think we're seeing another example of old doctrine needing an update due to ISR and PGMs.

In the old days the attacker would suppress the enemy's ability to react, then rush boldly ahead before the enemy could get their act together and fight back.  This traditional approach relies on the ability to blind and incapacity the enemy long enough for a rush forward approach to have some reasonable chance of success.

Ukraine has proved MANY times that this approach doesn't work if the defender has ISR and PGMs.  The multiple failures to cross the Donets river are the most blatant examples, but the Vuhledar attacks getting smashed are probably more relevant.  Lots of smaller examples, mostly because Russia has fought only on a smaller level.

Now Russia has done exactly the same thing to Ukraine that it has had done to it many times before.  Ukrainians should have anticipated this better.

Ukraine was moving through a gray zone, not through active defensive line.  They could have driven the mine plows through without support and been no worse off.  In this case a drone spotting them and a rotary aircraft well outside of MBT range popping off a PGM.  No advantage of having the Brads there in terms of breaching the minefield.

If Russia had instead dropped a bunch of artillery on the column, same thing... no advantage to having the Brads.

ATGM nests positioned in the gray zone?  The Brads could have helped in that case in theory only.  In reality if the Russians set up a kill sack with ATGMs the most likely outcome is pretty much the same that happened.  Which means there was unlikely to be a practical advantage with the Brads there.

Shock/surprise?  No chance of that.  Russia knows (roughly) where the Ukrainians are going to come and have ISR in the air narrowing it down.  Again, no advantage with the Brads there.

So, taken all together, I see no upside potential to the Brads being a part of the breaching op.  They should have stayed back, waited for the breachers to have gone as far as they thought they could go, then advanced at top speed instead of the slower pace of following a breaching vehicle.  Ideally the breachers would make a couple of lanes instead of just the one.

Steve

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Oblast or town?

@riptides @TheVulture

 He said "I was captured in Zaporizhzhia oblast, Tokmak". He is 35 y.o., 503rd motor-rifle regiment, 19th motor-rifle division (Northers Osetia), 58th CAA. 

Tokmak is a town, of course, the center of district in Zaporizhzhzia oblast.

[Seedorf81]

If I translate the recent Ukrainian losses to my CM Black Sea-experiences:

I am a below-average skilled player. But even if I had to play let's say Bill Hardenberger (undoubtedly one of the best, methodical and clever players I saw during AAR's), than I still would be able to kill a number of his Bradleys and Abrams.

Every army, even the most victorious, takes losses.

There is way too much focus on this initial Ukraine-"attack mishap", because - and yes that is very cruel - it is relatively insignificant in the big overall scheme.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

The losses are concerning, but a lot of this Ukraine counter-attack force is green and they are still learning, mistakes are going to be made. I would only start to really get concerned if this trend continues.. but I have faith that they are smart enough to make the adjustments required in order to succeed.

This is a very small part of the entire force in action and is in a very concentrated area... I would suggest standing by and letting things play out; I suspect a lot of good news is going to come our way very soon.

Agree fully, though I do think we're seeing yet another example of traditional doctrine needing to be overhauled given ISR and PGM realities.

We also have to continually remind ourselves that the Russians are showing most of the information due to Ukraine's info blackout.  We're not likely to have the Russians show us their counter attack/reinforcement columns that have been zapped by Ukraine (there is one specific report of such an action).

The fact is that Russia's lines are thin and they can't hold out indefinitely.  They will either die in place or have to withdraw without reinforcements.  Russia doesn't have much in the way of reinforcements and what they do have has to move in the open just like Ukraine.  There are ample opportunities for payback.

Steve