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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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7 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Been meaning to ask this question and your post reminded me. All of the videos of UAV attacks and small unit combat overall, show missions completed during daylight. Does the war stop after dark? I don't think so. Therefore, I would like to understand what is going on at night. What percentage of UAVs can deliver munitions at night? How much traditional ground combat takes place at night? I bet there are a few examples of night time operations. But is there an large amount of action taking place we don't see in the public domain? Perhaps videos posted from daytime are just easier for the public to understand and turn into rock operas. I don't know. Puzzled. Maybe it's playing up the positive with daytime videos and keeping the night actions under secrecy. 

Night is a time of recons, SOF, snipers and R18 bombers - I posted enough videos how these heavy octocopters eliminate Russian equipment in night raids. During the battle for Bakhmut Wagners most of their decisive assaults conducted at the night even with a lack of NV devices, using terrain and sneaking. UKR Balalkiya offensive started also at the night. But night operations with mass of combined forces demand more higher level of control. So, night actions take place enough, but have own specific. And here I agree with Vet 0369 - soldiers have to rest and can't fight 24/7, if he not use drugs or "magic drink of Wagners". Ukranian soldiers drink many energetics like Burn or Red Bull, but even this is gradually exhausting the organism. And after two-three days without sleep or with two hours of sleep your combat capabilities significantly reduce.    

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8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Night is a time of recons, SOF, snipers and R18 bombers - I posted enough videos how these heavy octocopters eliminate Russian equipment in night raids. During the battle for Bakhmut Wagners most of their decisive assaults conducted at the night even with a lack of NV devices, using terrain and sneaking. UKR Balalkiya offensive started also at the night. But night operations with mass of combined forces demand more higher level of control. So, night actions take place enough, but have own specific. And here I agree with Vet 0369 - soldiers have to rest and can't fight 24/7, if he not use drugs or "magic drink of Wagners". Ukranian soldiers drink many energetics like Burn or Red Bull, but even this is gradually exhausting the organism. And after two-three days without sleep or with two hours of sleep your combat capabilities significantly reduce.    

I imagine that UAV and ugv attacks over multiple nights could allow your own troops to rest while exhausting the enemy. If you automate it and combine with (drone spotted) shelling/AGL fire then life would become living hell for the troops in trenches

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Khodakovskiy wrote UKR troops shifted own efforts on other side of Velyka Novosilka salient and enterd to Novodonetske village. 

Зображення

On this post he writes UKR troops at the second half of the night @kevinkin;) imitated continue of attack on yesterday direction. Russian UAV air recon could spot about 30 of armor moving somewhere, but lost them in the night (due limited capabilities) and this group suddenly appeared on oppositre flank attacking Novodonetske from Zolota Nyva. Reportedly UKR troops, suppressing Russian communication with EW assets could entered to the village, but havn't control over it yet. Battle is continuing. 

Episode of yesterday fight - UKR 47th arty brigade strikes on enemy positions in close rear of Velyka Novosilka salient in the Zavitne Bazhannia village (in eng. it means "cherished desire") in 12 km south from Velyka Novosilka

 

Без-назви-1.jpg

Edited by Haiduk
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2 hours ago, chrisl said:

Wow - Scholz finally has some strong public words supporting Ukraine.  Germany has been quietly ramping up the actual materiel support, but Olaf must finally be feeling like he's his coalition behind him on this.

 

As always, I've no idea what's going on in Scholz' head. His coalition, however, pretty much exists only on paper at the moment. Greens and FDP have publicly torn each other to pieces. Scholz tried, again, to be Merkel 2.0 here and did nothing. For reasons unfathomable to me when Merkel didn't intervene in such a case it was somehow interpreted as strong leadership, as her being aloof of such petty bickering. In Scholz' case everyone was wondering where the hell the chancellor was. So that totally backfired. People seem to expect a more active leadership here.

What's probably more important is the fact the far right populists, the AfD are suddenly the second strongest party in polls. And they are pretty openly against Germany supporting Ukraine and (a little less openly) pro Putin. On the other hand a very popular left wing figure, Sahra Wagenknecht is also against German support for Ukraine, albeit from an (officially) more left and pacifistic point of view (note that I seriously think the horseshoe theory is BS but in this instance far left and far right are indeed pretty close).

So, the support-sceptical positions (and note, they are not openly pro Putin but demand negotiations) are pretty much taken and burned for a mid-left party. On the other hand the mood in Germany appears to be swinging against Ukrainian refugees, given that energy prices and inflation are still high and there is officially a recession now, meaning paying for them indefinitely while especially poorer Germans are suffering from the situation is also something Scholz has to avoid. So while I don't think the SPD likes it all that much, they have pretty much no choice but to support Ukraine (plus serious democratic politician right now pretends it is even possible to negotiate with Putin).

Also, with Pistorius appearing not nearly as incompetent as his predecessor, weapon deliveries look less like the SPD had been forced by their coalition partners.

So... don't know if that helped. Well, not really an explanation, more like additional context, I guess.

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4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is RUMINT for now, but it would be interesting to see what happens if it turns out to be true:

https://twitter.com/UkraineNewsLive/status/1665297941341323273

Steve

 

4 hours ago, chrisl said:

Does the "remote controlled armored personnel carrier" concept seem a little oxymoronic to anybody else?

 

My first thought, too. But for a rescue mission, it may make sense. You can send the vehicle someplace without risking the driver. On the return, the driver is still fresh & without injuries, and he has the full ISR abilities quite close to him.

And IIRC the Fuchs has an ABC version. If you need to go into an area which has been, for instance, chemically attacked, remote might be preferable.

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5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It was referenced earlier by someone that the Russians are claiming the wiped out a battalion's worth of Ukrainian troops yesterday.  I just found one of the sources for this totally reliable Russian reporting and thought it would be fun to post it here:

Steve

This is 2023, if the RA bagged that much UA hardware there would be video of it all over the internet.  It is pretty clear the RA has not established fully effective ISR as they are seeing “the offensive” all over the place right now.  More likely these are UA probes designed to keep them guessing where the main effort will fall - Interestingly all quiet at Kherson/Dnipro sector.

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6 hours ago, Fenris said:

Yep, teh info wars, they have begun.

 

That's hilarious!  The Russians hold out for a couple of hours and that pretty much means the war is over for Ukraine.  Ukraine holds out at Bakhmut for most of a year, causing at times 7:1 casualties, and it's just another glorious day for the Russian armed forces!

Steve

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44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's hilarious! 

that user is a serb who is so obsessed with russia he had to take a 6 months twitter break to cope after kherson was liberated.

Seems he was able to restore his faith/cognitive dissonance levels in Ru superiority.

Edited by Kraft
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13 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Probably foreground tanks really Ukrainian, but it's unclear. Burning tank obviously Russian (top cage)

Looks like the tank with the cope cage was destroyed by infantry with 2 rpg's at the edge of treeline. Arround 00:33-00:34 tow distinct smoke plumes can be seen. The tank cooks off instantly.

inf.jpg

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4 hours ago, Pete Wenman said:

@Haiduk my google searches are letting me down, but do you have any details on the strength/depth of RU defences in this area. Does this area have the lines of dragons teeth and anti-tank ditches that we have seen photos off.

P

https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russian-field-fortifications-in-ukraine

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2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

If the newer Western MBT/AFV are involved in this push then it is perhaps a first sign this could be part of the major offensive. Looking forward to the details of the forces involved.

I think UA will probe over a large area of the front, with older equipment. When they find a weakspot. Then they quickly will use that weakspot, and send in major formations of western equipment for a breaktrough. Followed by others to secure the flanks. They probably only try to break the Russian lines in a few places, so they will have enough troops on these places to overwhelm the Russians. And both encircle the Russian front units, and go deep at the same time to destroy logistics, and artillery etc, etc

Edited by Armorgunner
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