How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think that FPV kamikaze drones may be the most dangerous to frontline stability. 

Reportedly Russians deliverd 1000 FPV drones to Belgorod, from where they likely will be share among units of Troops Groupingh "West", which activated enough in last two weeks on Kupiansk direction and even could push back UKR forces, capturing small village Masiutivka and nearby territory. 

According to Kostiantym Mashovets, TG "West" now has next forces:

- 3 moror-rifle and naval infantry brigades

- 10 motor rifle and tank regiments  

- 11 motor-rifle regiments of Territorial Troops (actually more just "rifle" than "motor-rifle")

- 5 separate motor-rifle battlions of Territorial Troops

- 2 BARS battallions

- 1 PMC battalion-level unit.

In reserve: 2 motor-rifle regoments and 1 rifle regiment

Most of "regular" units are represented by 1st Guard tank army, 20th Guard CAA and some units of 6th CAA. These are 2nd guard motor-rifle division, most units of 4th guard tank division, 47th tank division, 3rd motor-rifle division, 27th motor-rifle brigade, elements of 25th motor-rifle brigade and other.    

All these forces have about 49 000 of personnel, up to 400 tanks (about 25 % of them under repairng), 406 (350 according other info) armored vehciles, up to 430 artillery sysstems over 100 mm, 110 MLRS, 8 operative-tactical missiles launchers.

Probably TG "West" can try to push UKR froces behind R-07 road on the section Kupiansk - Novoselivske and their firthe objective can be restoring of defense line along Oskol river - in cooperation with Russian troops, which have been conducting offensive actions on Kreminna - Zarichne direction.

To TG "West" are subordinated "border covering forces" - Operative Groups "Brinask", "Belgorod", "Kursk", which have additionally up to 23000 of personnel, 88 tanks, 340 armored vehciles, 350 artillery pieces and 88 MLRS.

So, according to Mashovets opinion, UKR troops should allow Russians to start their offensive efforts here, to tie their forces. But this "allowing" shoul be controlled and probably "Belgorod offensive" of RVC is a part of the complicated game. Also he told now in Russian General Staff opinions are divided 50/50. One part claims UKR offensive is a bluff and we have to atatck, in that time when other part insists UKR offensive is a real and we need to prepare to defense. 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Also, Polish Volunteer Corps reportedly participates in the liberation of Bilhorod:

Videos of PVC from Kozinka - Graivoron raid

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

22 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

meanwhile, Prig claims AFU took some terrain south of Bakhmut:

UKR forces really slightly increased "grey zone" inside the south-western part of the city, but territory around "jet monument" was never captured by Wagners. This is just next lunge of Prigozhyn to MoD, as if "look! We have captured this ground with heavy losses, but these Shoigu's imponents are loosing the ground as soon as we leave" 

[Haiduk]

"Tiger" somewhere near Vinnytsia )))

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Yesterday there was a next missile strike on Berdiansk port. Russians claimed they shot down 6 missiles from 8. Tochka-U missiles were used, at lest one of them had cluster warhead - on the third video it's seen how cluster submunitions explode in the air after interception

Engine section of Tochka-U in Berdiansk

[Yet]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Also, Polish Volunteer Corps reportedly participates in the liberation of Bilhorod:

 

who on their turn were inspired by the Iron cross and Pirates.

Edited June 4, 2023 by Yet

[Huba]

39 minutes ago, Yet said:

who on their turn were inspired by the Iron cross and Pirates.

Well perhaps  The Hussars of Death volunteer cavalry squadron from the Polish-Bolshevik War of 1920 is a real thing though. The original emblem:

Edited June 4, 2023 by Huba

[Beleg85]

Very interesting... incursions seem to get more frequent and rise in scope. Other info from volunteers suggest it is possible now among various Special Groups to spend nights and even several days on Russian territory.

 

[Haiduk]

Looks like initial phase of UKR offensive already began.

This video appeared today in official military media: "Plans like silence. There will be no begining anouncement"

Different reports of Russian milbloggers of UKR probes near Avdiivka, Velyka Novosilka direction

Enemy went in the breakthrough near Donetsk: tanks and infantry of AFU attecked on Avdiivla flanks

UKR TG confirms: We have successes on Avdiivka [direction], guys are conducting mop-up with kamikadze drones

Velyka Novosilka direction: UKR troops attacked our positions and could captured one of them. They suffered tangible losses, but incease own presence on breakthgrough section, trying to develop own achievements

Other source told UKR attacked on this direction with infantry, supported by 10 of tanks and light armor.

Other report from this place. In short, two companies with support of 3-5 tanks heavy attack our positions near Neskuchne, trying to breakthrough our minefileds. There is havy clashes, our artillery and aviation work intesivlely.

UKR officila info, but likely this happened 1-2 days ago

UKR troops repelled enemy atatcks on Svatove direction and in own turn advanced on 400 m

On other hand, Russians activated own offensive efforts in Maryinka. Reportedly arrived Kadyrov troops intensively attack from early morning with aviation and MLRS support.

 

 

 

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Very interesting... incursions seem to get more frequent and rise in scope. Other info from volunteers suggest it is possible now among various Special Groups to spend nights and even several days on Russian territory.

 

PsyOps I think, because no enough panic in Russian TGs. 

Though RVC already controls most part of Novaya Tavolzhanka village judging on desperate post of Russian border guards:

We need overall support of MoD. Not only with artillery, but with armor and aviation. Situation is very hard. The enemy is present in settlement

Video of RVC in Novaya Tavolzhanka:

Cameraman's voice: "Look! They are already everywhere! Fu...k your mother!"

Piztdets! One, two, three... How many more are there?... Machine gun! Pizda-a-a!!! 

 

Intercepted call of Shebekino settlers to his relative in Shebekino: "UKR gave time up to 17:00, then the will attack! Get out of there immediately!"

 

Novaya Tavolzhanka and part of Shebekino under Russian arty fire - they try to delay advance of RVC

 

[Haiduk]

3rd assault brigade still fight on SW flank of Bakhmut

 

[Haiduk]

National Guard Special Force "Omega" targeted for artillery two Buk-M1

 

 

 

[kraze]

Ah special civil war in Russia. It was a long long time coming.

[Haiduk]

Lt.colonel Mikhail Nikilin, commander of 71st motor-rifle regiment of 42nd motor-rifle division, 58th CAA, Southern military district was killed on 30th of May 2023 in Zaporizhzhia oblast

 

[Carolus]

Greetings everyone. Long-time lurker who has been reading this thread since 23rd Feb of 2022 and now wants to step out of the shadows to thank everyone who has contributed. It has been a fascinating and informative experience to read through it all day by day, despite the tragedy which has brought everyone in this thread together.

I will likely spend the vast majority of my time continuing to lurk, since I do not have the military knowledge to give valuable commentary on most relevant things, but in this first post, I wanted to provide a short summary of an article from the Berlin branch office of a Swiss newspaper which is about planned changes to NATO structure. While it is not directly about the situation of Ukraine, the planned changes described therein seem to be a direct result of the (renewed) invasion of '22 and thus I think it still fits to the topic.

Google translate has not worked for me on this website, maybe it does for someone else who wants to read it in its entirely:

https://www.nzz.ch/international/neue-nato-struktur-deutschland-macht-wieder-grosse-ankuendigungen-ld.1740692 

Here is the summary:

• General Christopher Cavoli and a small team has been working on a plans to reorganize the structure of NATO for about a year and these plans will be presented at the next meeting of NATO head of states in Vilnius on 11th and 12th of July
• Newspaper claims as sources 1) a team member who is involved in the planning and 2) a high-ranking ex officer who claimed to be familiar with the work
• Germany will have to prepapre to become a more important administrative and logistical hub for NATO
• NATO is aware of how the Russian attack on Ukraine has turned the world upside down, and in Brussels and Mons, Cold War terminolgy and plans are being pulled out of dusty folders 
• Below the Mons HQ and the 3 regional operative HQs of Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk, two new army staff commands will be created, called "Army North" and "Army South". Army North will be located at the American base in Wiesbaden, Army South in Izmir.
• Both Army North and Army South will be responsible to coordinate NATO troops organised as corps, divisions, brigades and battalions
• the reorgnisation and expansion of staff is the result of both the Russian invasion and of newly acquired members in Eastern Europe which have to be more integrated (and also pay heed to the fact that e.g. Poland has now 4 full army divisions and thus is a larger contributor than e.g. Germany)
• new defensive plans for the three regional HQs Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk
•  Americans want the new Army North and Army south command staff to become operable as soon as possible, which is one reason why they will be staffed to a large part by American officers from their Europe and Africa commands, since no other member state has the same number of available trained staff officers. This is also why an alternative suggestion to build up and place the two command HQs in Poland and Romania was rejected
• Cavoli's plans indicate that there will be 9 to 12 new army corps in Europe which will be fully staffed - a lot of the existing army corps from the Cold War still exist but only on paper, without any bodies
• so far it is planned a corps will contain 2 to 3 divisions with a strength of ca. 20.000 each
• the total numerical strength is not yet decided, but the number of quickly available troops will be increased from currently 40.000 to 300.000 ("New Force Model")
• NATO "Joint Support and Enabling Command" in Ulm, Germany will receive a significant increase in staff and will be responsible for overseeing the supply via ports, railway and air transport which will be routed mostly through Germany 
• the plans expect that half of the "New Force Model" troops will come from North America, the other half from European member states
• Europe is woefully behind in terms of ground-based air defense, especially against ballistic missiles and drones, and a new program is supposed to increase the number of European AD 
• German government continues to promise that it will provide 17.000 troops forthe  "Allied Reaction Force" which is supposed to form a strategic reserve with enough ammo for 30 days of operation, but German MoD will have to be honest in Vilnius if they can actually keep this promise. 
• Germany also promised to provide at least 30.000 troops which can be quickly relocated, but it is not yet decided which readiness level the troops will have - either 10 days, 30 days or 100 days
• German troops require improved communication equipment to integrate with NATO, and new digital radio are supposed to arrive until end of 2024 - another topic German MoD is expected to provide an honest outlook about at Vilnius

If anyone sees any error, please inform. I find these kinds of planned changed to NATO very interesting due to the wider implications for the Ukraine conflict but also the global security order. If this article toook me for a fool and none of this is realistic, I apologise. As I said, I lack modern military knowledge. 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Carolus
small corrections

[Haiduk]

The post in Russian TG about convicts training in Wagner PMC: 

I spoke with former convicts about how they were trained. They have two weeks of training. There are no questions about shooting training. They have alot of it under control of instructors, which taught and corrected. A tactic: works in pairs and triples, in squad composition, assault of the trenches. But tactical medicine training was not enough. Next a story how one convict has died, because his comrades didn't know how to help him and hadn't proper tools for this.

 Thus, it's confirmation of words of our soldiers, that "Prigozhyn's meat" weren't "stupid lemmings attacks". Of course, they suffered heavy losses, but their training was directed only to allow them to acomplish simpliest tasks and this in couple with "no way back" and endless attacks of small groups from different directions allowed Wagner to achieve Pirric success, but success.

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[Seminole]

"Army North will be located at the American base in Wiesbaden, Army South in Izmir."

 

Focusing a new command in Turkey seems... optimistic?

Just seems like the alliance as a whole wouldn't want a new command potentially 'hostage' to Erdogan's whims.

[poesel]

39 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Focusing a new command in Turkey seems... optimistic?

Like Erdogan or not - it is a stable government. And he knows how to make deals. Thus, a new NATO command center in Turkey means that Sweden will join NATO really soon.

[Haiduk]

More details arrived about UKR attack in Velyka Novosillka area (this is south of Donetsk oblast between Polohy and Vuhledar)

All info from Russian TGs, UKR sources keep silence.

Russian miliblogegr Rogov claims UKR troops attacking on three directions. Likely main direction Neskuchne - Makarivka and two auxiliary Novopil' - Novodarivka and toward Levadne - Pryyutne direction soth from Novodarivka. According his words two companies involved in attacks and about 15 of armor, including T-72, MaxxPro, HMMWV M1151A1

Except UKR troops in attack as if participated 3rd assault group of "Polish merceneries" (but due to @Beleg85 words, looks like this can be true). Rogov said after first two hours of battle UKR troops could advance on 200 m and then up to 16:00 they could overcome 200 m more. He says UKR lost two tanks by ATGMs and up to 15 of infantry

Last information from this area already says UKR troops, attaking there is 31st mech.brigade and they could capture Novodarivka and Neskuchne and were engaged on northern outskirt of Storozheve village, advancing, thus on 3 km.

On my opinion this could be not offensive, but next "battlespace shaping" operation, having the objective to cut a salient in this place for some further actions. Though, this can be and attempt to breakthrough in case of success to Rozivka, where railway and highway are crossing

 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[MSBoxer]

Not to be negative, but I will believe some of our European NATO partners living up to their promises/commitments when I see it.  Hopefully the current situation in Ukraine will have opened some eyes.

[Kinophile]

Caesar in action

@Haiduk do you recognise the patch?

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

21 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Caesar in action

@Haiduk do you recognise the patch?

 

55th artillery brigade

[chrisl]

6 hours ago, panzermartin said:

I'm sure they will. They are already in sparse use I think in  first aid in mountain rescue. Personally, I'm a little disappointed how much money and tehcnology has been invested in advanced warfare, while I see our forests here burning every year and disappearing because we are using the same old tech from the 50s to extinguish fires. Air manned assets that can't fly in strong winds , night or close to the fire. I think drone tech can help immensly here, with bigger unmanned platforms flying 24h around the clock and scrambling immediately to the first sign of fire. 

Send your firefighters to Southern California to learn.  LA City and County have been using air assets at night for I think decades now, and about 10 years ago basically forced the US Forest Service to start night flying, as well.  Forest Service had prohibited night flying since the early 70's due to a mid-air collision, and refused to revisit the decision as technology changed.  LA County uses a civilian conversion of Blackhawks (Firehawks) for night flying, and I think LA City is still using old Hueys with NVG.  But they both fly at night and close to fires - I've had fires near my house that were in very steep terrain that were suppressed entirely by helo drops before they could hike anybody to them.  They also do direct drops on fires using fixed wings, which can be crazy to watch.  I usually can only watch on ADS-BExchange so I can see exactly where the fire is.

I think the search and rescue teams are using drones to some extent now, but nobody allows drones when there are helos in the area and there are enough helos around here that there's almost always one with FLIR during nighttime SAR.  They're expensive to operate, and the terrain here can be very difficult for them to get close enough, so the idea of drones that are smaller and don't put any humans at risk until you load up the person to be rescued would be an improvement.

[FancyCat]

 

 

[sburke]

 Very mixed information/observations in article but some funny comments about Russian air defense capabilities. 
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/ukraine-waging-shadow-war-russia-050000960.html