How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

Quote

After analyzing the incoming messages from the battlefields in the Volnovakha direction, it is permissible to conclude that (based on the number of forces involved by the enemy) - if these attacks are part of the planned offensive, then we are talking about either a relatively large-scale reconnaissance in force, or an auxiliary or distracting strike . In none of the areas where the enemy is attacking, more than one motorized infantry battalion has been put into battle. In some areas - 1-2 companies reinforced with tanks or even less.

If the enemy is going to attack right here and now, then so far his attacks are exclusively tactical in nature.

 

As for the situation in the Bakhmut area, I don’t have any data yet. Well, except for another Prigogine hysteria.

Girkins opinion on the recent fighting

Edited June 6, 2023 by Kraft

[paxromana]

According to the Sydney Morning Herald (article behind a Paywall, but you get access to 10 articles free, IIRC, per month) ...

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hawkei-armoured-cars-bound-for-ukraine-war-in-australian-support-deal-20230605-p5de5a.html

... Australia is definitely sending an unspecified number of Hawkei Vehicles to Ukraine 'real soon now' ... there are evidently 450 sitting in Thales storage and unissued to the Army which would be available (not that all of them would be sent, of course)

Edited June 6, 2023 by paxromana

[Sojourner]

In case anyone was beginning to despise the Swiss a little bit less...

Zelenskyy to appeal to the Swiss parliament on 15 June, some MPs are promising to boycott

"Immediately after the announcement, Thomas Aeschi, the leader of the parliamentary group of the far-right Swiss People's Party, criticised the decision to allow Zelenskyy to speak, saying that this can be considered to be an attempt to influence the debate on the supply of weapons and ammunition." [Gee, no sh!t, Sherlock]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/5/7405456/

 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

5 hours ago, Pablius said:

Now every tank is a "Leopard"...probably even the Bradleys will be "Leopards"

The memes are already coming in.

 

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[chrisl]

6 hours ago, sross112 said:

 

LOL, this is obviously just the 1st Gen prototype that will evolve into the Mobile Parking Garage (MPG). The MPG will allow the UA to phase out almost all other direct fire platforms (AFV, IFV, APC, etc). The next video will showcase the infantry dismount models that resemble out houses and telephone booths. The crew served weapons are humbly based on wood sheds for rural operations and kiosks for urban tactical options!   

Wait til the do a big blue police box and it's everywhere at once.

[akd]

Oh dear, it’s blown

 

[billbindc]

Well...maybe it really happened. If so, I'm having a hard time believing the Russian claim that Ukraine did it to wash away Russian positions for an amphibious assault. Inter alia, the last the UAF would probably want is an uncertain landing on the other side. 

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by billbindc

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Well...maybe it really happened. If so, I'm having a hard time believing the Russian claim that Ukraine did it to wash away Russian positions for an amphibious assault. Inter alia, the last the UAF would probably want is an uncertain landing on the other side. 

 

It is a huge problem seven ways from Sunday, But will the flooding on the Russian side push Most Russian artillery out of range of Kherson city?

Edit: Also Moscow delenda est!

Edited June 6, 2023 by dan/california

[sburke]

seems like an excessively bad idea.  If you were going to do this to disrupt a Ukrainian offensive, you'd think they'd wait till there was a verifiable offensive.  Now they just suffer all the bad effects and the UA doesn't have to guess if they'd blow the dam.

Quote

The dam has an associated lock and a power station with an installed capacity of 357 MW. Water from Kakhovka Reservoir is cooling the 5.7 GW Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and also sent via the North Crimean Canal and Dnieper–Kryvyi Rih Canal to irrigate large areas of southern Ukraine and northern Crimea. Construction on the dam began in September 1950. The last generator was commissioned in October 1956.[3] It is operated by Ukrhydroenergo.

 

[chris talpas]

May be behind a paywall but article from May 17th said reservoir levels were at 30 year high and risked flooding.  Could it have been a failure rather than intentional?

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/17/world/europe/dam-flood-ukraine-kakhovka.html?smid=url-share

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by chris talpas
Grammer

[akd]

13 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

May be behind a paywall but article from May 17th said reservoir levels were at 30 year high and risked flooding.  Could it have been a failure rather than intentional?

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/17/world/europe/dam-flood-ukraine-kakhovka.html?smid=url-share

 

Oddly coincidental…

Edited June 6, 2023 by akd

[FancyCat]

Was the dam under Russian control or Ukrainian? I find it hard to believe the dam would not have been destroyed by Ukraine till now since before there was a Russian military group stuck on the right bank. Sure, Russian defenses are flooded but river crossings are probably impossible, civilian suffering will occupy most resources in the area, and Russia can shift forces elsewhere with a safe flank.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

May be behind a paywall but article from May 17th said reservoir levels were at 30 year high and risked flooding.  Could it have been a failure rather than intentional?

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/17/world/europe/dam-flood-ukraine-kakhovka.html?smid=url-share

 

With all the damage it suffered from the Kherson battles, it could be.  However (nija'd by AKD) the timing is very suspicious.

There is no way Ukraine did this, however they would be fools to have made plans based on the dam staying intact.  There's just no way Russia wouldn't blow it the second they sensed any danger of a river crossing.  Or, perhaps, even the threat of a river crossing.

So I for one don't think this adversely affects Ukrainian planning.

Steve

[pintere]

There’s been lots of talk about the nuclear power plant being in danger of a meltdown if the dam blows. Now that the latter has happened, are we on track to disaster there or are there some backup options that can at least suffice for a little while?

[chris talpas]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

With all the damage it suffered from the Kherson battles, it could be.  However (nija'd by AKD) the timing is very suspicious.

There is no way Ukraine did this, however they would be fools to have made plans based on the dam staying intact.  There's just no way Russia wouldn't blow it the second they sensed any danger of a river crossing.  Or, perhaps, even the threat of a river crossing.

So I for one don't think this adversely affects Ukrainian planning.

Steve

Added in the photo showing water flowing over the top of the dam which is never a good thing.  Still won’t rule out intentional destruction.

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's June 5th report has them noting the uptick in Ukrainian offensive activity, and messaging by both sides that the counter offensive has started, but are withholding declaring it started because it's not possible to say.  Plus, it's always a fuzzy line... are shaping operations part of the main op or separate?  That sort of thing.

The tidbit is interesting:

Quote

The Russian Black Sea Fleet is attempting to mitigate complications with logistical support in occupied Crimea by shifting resources to mainland Russia. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Natalia Humenyuk reported on June 5 that Russian forces are transferring the Black Sea Fleet’s logistics centers from Sevastopol, occupied Crimea, to Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai.[21] Humenyuk stated that Russian forces are moving the logistics centers because of widespread logistical and ammunition provision issues in occupied Crimea.[22] Humenyuk noted that Russian amphibious ships are continuing to maneuver in the Black Sea and enter Sevastopol, but that the overall center of gravity of the Black Sea Fleet appears to be shifting towards Novorossiysk.[23] Recent strikes on Russian concentration areas, logistics hubs, and transportation assets in southern Ukraine may be causing increased anxiety over the security of the Black Sea Fleet, and the move to Krasnodar Krai is likely in part reflective of this fact.

Seems Russia is very concerned that their traditional use of Sevastopol as its primary base of operations for the Black Sea Fleet is questionable.  Obviously they are not pulling up all the stakes, but the report suggests the are now spreading their eggs out into more baskets (so to speak).  Good

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Def Mon keeping the troops entertained!

 

We should take a moment to ponder how much Copium that Russian trolls need to be consuming to think a few company sized attacks constitutes the entire counter offensive.  Do they think the 9-12 brigades it has built and not committed yet are for parades?

The funniest part is the claim that they've already defeated the counter attack even though it's confirmed that Ukraine has taken back thousands of KM2 in one day.  Russia can only dream of being defeated like that.

Steve

[chris talpas]

Another non-paywalled article about the high water levels.  Also mentions the nuclear plant.  
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwid98OQ1a3_AhW8kIkEHTDRBBsQFnoECAoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ctvnews.ca%2Fworld%2Fdamage-to-russian-occupied-dam-submerges-ukrainian-reservoir-island-community-1.6412661&usg=AOvVaw3o9EEQ8rTJDvLdC82gwCrB

 

[dan/california]

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW's June 5th report has them noting the uptick in Ukrainian offensive activity, and messaging by both sides that the counter offensive has started, but are withholding declaring it started because it's not possible to say.  Plus, it's always a fuzzy line... are shaping operations part of the main op or separate?  That sort of thing.

The tidbit is interesting:

Seems Russia is very concerned that their traditional use of Sevastopol as its primary base of operations for the Black Sea Fleet is questionable.  Obviously they are not pulling up all the stakes, but the report suggests the are now spreading their eggs out into more baskets (so to speak).  Good

Steve

Crimea's water came, I emphasize came, from the dam they just blew up. They won''t see a drop for the better part a decade now, probably. It implies the Russians are not exactly confident of holding on. It is an interesting question how many of the mobiks are smart enough to figure that out.

[kevinkin]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good

Wouldn't you want to crush all the eggs at once in one basket? Seems spreading out might be a logical response to the current situation Russia faces. For example, providing for a flexible counter to any attempt to re-take Crimea in a lighting strike. Crimea is really a major wart on Russia's forehead. It is a base for naval assets the are by and large irrelevant. It only has symbolic value. If given a choice where would people like to live? Kaliningrad or Crimea; both a dystopian nightmare.

[billbindc]

Just now, dan/california said:

Crimea's water came, I emphasize came, from the dam they just blew up. They won''t see a drop for the better part a decade now, probably. It implies the Russians are not exactly confident of holding on. It is an interesting question how many of the mobiks are smart enough to figure that out.

Hearing already that the Crimea canal has already reversed course. Russia absolutely needed it to get enough water to Crimea. An extremely desperate measure.

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Wouldn't you want to crush all the eggs at once in one basket? Seems spreading out might be a logical response to the current situation Russia faces. For example, providing for a flexible counter to any attempt to re-take Crimea in a lighting strike. Crimea is really a major wart on Russia's forehead. It is a base for naval assets the are by and large irrelevant. It only has symbolic value. If given a choice where would people like to live? Kaliningrad or Crimea; both a dystopian nightmare.

"Good" in the sense that what Russia is doing now is not by choice and will be incredibly disruptive for quite some time.  It will likely cause all kinds of headaches and complications.  It's similar to the HIMARS reaction where Russia had to adopt a far less efficient means of supplying its forces.

Steve

[chris talpas]

Given the impact to Crimean water supply and cooling the nuke plant, I’m not convinced yet it was intentional.  Some stories on the Tass site describing concerns of failure and how they solved the problem.  We’ll see but this could have big non-military impacts.

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwii59Kw263_AhVBjYkEHZocAGwQFnoECB0QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftass.com%2Frussia%2F1614397&usg=AOvVaw2pk7UXxugvA5QyMmpC-GNk

[chris talpas]

Last post for now.  A worst case study showing impact of dam destruction.

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjTvfPT4K3_AhW0rYkEHYUtByAQFnoECC0QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcornucopia.se%2F2022%2F10%2Fworst-case-modelling-for-nova-kakhovka-dam-break%2F&usg=AOvVaw2m5hHy-EuekAl1YkcGroJV

 

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

Given the impact to Crimean water supply and cooling the nuke plant, I’m not convinced yet it was intentional.  Some stories on the Tass site describing concerns of failure and how they solved the problem.  We’ll see but this could have big non-military impacts.

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwii59Kw263_AhVBjYkEHZocAGwQFnoECB0QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftass.com%2Frussia%2F1614397&usg=AOvVaw2pk7UXxugvA5QyMmpC-GNk

It will have enormous non-military impacts. The nuclear plants water requirements have been greatly reduced by the six plus months it has been shut down. But you probably need some sort of temporary dam to even attempt to turn it back on. Ukraine lose the hydroelectric capacity of dam itself, and it completely bleeps the irrigation scheme for some of the worlds most productive farm land. Their will be vast civilian flooding damage, and I am sure I am not even five percent of the way through the actual list. but none of it can be fixed until the last orc is dead or gone. I will leave my preference on that last bit as exercise for the reader.