How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I went down to DC during this crisis and even the US took months to pivot onto this one tactical threat capability (e.g. Armored HUMVEEs, C-IED etc)...and this was one issue.  The stuff we are seeing in the Russian system are hitting military reform-levels to address and those take years, if not decades.   

It was one issue, and the Iraqi army was already done. Ukrainian armed resistance is in an entirely different galaxy. Just no comparison.

 

[TheVulture]

Quote

Cyberwar? France's Army Ministry and the director of mobile network Orange France warned that the possibility of Russia cutting off the internet to France is a “credible threat.” The director of Orange France said Moscow has been "interested" in the underwater fiber-optic cables that connect the internet for years. The company recently detected “a spy vessel connected to the Russian Ministry of Defense, and a class of submarines with the capacity to work at extreme depths.”

 

[Vet 0369]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

T-14 is also an unproven system.  Tell me, dear readers out there in virtual land, what brand new Russian or Soviet system has ever been fielded without there being significant problems that diverge the produced vehicle from the technical specifications? Plus what Russian or Soviet system has ever performed as well as the government says it will?

Seriously though, T-14 was supposed to be fielded in large numbers by now.  It hasn't been, so that should tell you something right there.

Steve

And, even if they could produce them in numbers, how are they going to man them? Does anyone actually think they would go to front line units, with newly trained crews? No, they would have to pull  experienced, battle-trained crews off the line to crew them. Otherwise, they’d lose them faster than a T-72 with a conscript crew as soon as they get into the combat zone.

[billbindc]

57 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm wondering about that as well.  On the first day of the war one of the high profile national members fled the country and the party kicked him out.  Seems the party is trying to thread the needle between traitors and collaborators.  Er wait, is that really going to work?

Steve

Which Opposition Bloc? Didn't they splinter into two?

[Bulletpoint]

53 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Regardless, we have seen a few people ask "how do you know it is going bad for Russia?" "are we in an anti-Russian echo chamber".

It's a very good question to ask. But each day when I take a look at the map and the front lines haven't really moved, I'm becoming more and more certain that this war is a disaster for Russia.

The best they can hope for now is probably a stalemate and negotiations.

[kraze]

16 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

 

Knowing how well russian super advanced paper tech works - they will just end up cutting themselves.

Remember - Russia has wasted all of its very expensive and long to produce Kalibr/Iskander arsenal they could possibly use and achieved almost nothing.

They now have to use strategic bombers to expend their only other ballistic missiles they have left and that hasn't proven to be very effective either.

[Bulletpoint]

Does anyone have an informed guess as to how long this war will last?

[dan/california]

 

12 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Does anyone have an informed guess as to how long this war will last?

Impossible to guess at this point. Putin could have an attack of rationality at any moment, or never. The Russian army in Ukraine could just give up suddenly, or just sullenly sit there and pump out artillery shells at whatever rate they can be delivered. The oligarchs/FSB could launch a coup in the morning, or never. The chaos of war is full effect, and the first thing to do is admit what you don't know. The actual commanders just have to take their best available information, and make the best decisions they can. They have to make decisions because standing still is almost always the WORST plan once the shooting starts. Eighty other things I could list...

[DesertFox]

How many NIMH battery cells do you need for a russian "kamikaze" drone?

 

 

[Commanderski]

On a Fox News interview: "LT. GEN. BEN HODGES: The Russians went after his [Fmr. Amb. to NATO Kurt Volker's] training center in Yavoriv, outside the city of Lviv, partly to demonstrate that they could reach the lines of communication that bring supplies and support from Poland into Ukraine. But also I think to maybe go after the logistics buildup that’s happening there. I don’t think we should overreact to this. The Russians, I think, are about ten days away from what is called the culminating point, when they just no longer have the ammunition nor the manpower to keep up their assault. I think we keep pouring it on, and the Russians culminate."

[Cobetco]

Like, I know its a suicide drone, but that body casing looks like its practically cardboard. I wonder how many of these get destroyed in shipping, or damaged by a little bit of rain.

[kraze]

11 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

How many NIMH battery cells do you need for a russian "kamikaze" drone?

 

 

No wonder they are begging China for help.

I've seen budget Chinese drones that are better made than this junk

Edited March 14, 2022 by kraze

[Probus]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Regardless, we have seen a few people ask "how do you know it is going bad for Russia?" "are we in an anti-Russian echo chamber".  Well maybe but none of those possibilities above are very good for the Russians at all, and all signs of things that should not be happening as widely as they are.

Yes.  We are definitely in an anti-Russian echo chamber here, but I believe much less of one than most places you can go on the internet.  I would encourage posting of both Ukrainian and Russian losses and victories here so that we can see both sides of the coin (unless this really upsets our Ukrainian friends @Haiduk @kraze and @Kraft. If they can stand it then go right ahead and post them). 

The only thing I don't want to happen is political arguing or anything that will derail the thread.  Technical arguing, strategic arguing, for sure, but we have to leave the politics out and try to figure out what exactly is happening on the ground to the best of our amateur armchair general abilities.  Some much less amateur than others.

If I misspoke or forgot something, please chime in @Battlefront.com and @BFCElvis.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Probus
Typo

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Phantom Captain said:

Colonel Wilder would be spinning is his grave to hear you say such a things!   He most specifically would disagree with you that his men were NOT Dragoons either.  The Lightning Brigade did NOT carry sabers, or pistols, or shotguns and would not engage on horseback as cavalry or dragoons would.

He specifically envisioned his unit as highly mobile mounted light infantry.

I think he would be awfully pleased to see how the Ukrainians are implementing his ideas and see that what they are doing is the modern equivalent of his brigade on a much larger scale.

I wasn’t implying that the “Light Brigade” wasn’t Light Infantry. I was observing that it wasn’t a “new” concept. As I stated, Dragoons weren’t Cavalry, they were mounted infantry who dismounted to fight. Even though they carried sabers, as the Cavalry did, they didn’t fight as Calvary, and weren’t used as one would use Cavalry, i.e. for recon, raids on supply lines, and to turn the flanks of the enemy. They rode to where they were needed to reinforce, dismount, and fought as a formation, on foot, with shorter muskets, or carbines. 

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, Probus said:

Yes.  We are definitely in an anti-Russian echo chamber here,

It is hard not to be if you are at all rational.  Facts

1 The whole invasion is a load of crap

2 The Russian army has performed miserably

3 The Ukrainian army has performed beyond anyone's expectations even when those expectations were high

4 Putin said 3 days to give himself a buffer.  it has been 18 days now and for the past week Russia doesn't seem to have moved the lines enough to matter and in some cases has lost ground

I don't know what a non anti Russian echo chamber would sound like but it would either sound a lot like us (if it were working off real facts) or be totally fictional.

There have been postings of Ukrainians losses, Steve was pretty critical of the lack of a good defense line to prevent the Russian offensive from Crimea.  Beyond that there simply aren't that many Russian victories to tally and they are coming at an awful price.

[Cobetco]

Personally, I think this thread is one of the better places processing information.

Artist twitter/socialmedia is filled with people with bad takes, people ignoring the situation, or people screaming about WW3 and we're all going to die.  My favorite however, is people begging for the sanctions to be lifted, because pretty much every Russian contract artist is now out of a job. which is very pitiable until those same people then start screaming about how this is NATOs fault (most of these people don't know what NATO is) and going on about biolabs or whatever this weeks excuse for the invasion Russia has cooked up. 

[BeondTheGrave]

Interesting story days on twitter are rare now (a good sign?) so its good to have a new Twitter roundup:

I dont even know what that is. A trench digger? 

Edited March 14, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Phantom Captain said:

Colonel Wilder would be spinning is his grave to hear you say such a things!   He most specifically would disagree with you that his men were NOT Dragoons either.  The Lightning Brigade did NOT carry sabers, or pistols, or shotguns and would not engage on horseback as cavalry or dragoons would.

He specifically envisioned his unit as highly mobile mounted light infantry.

I think he would be awfully pleased to see how the Ukrainians are implementing his ideas and see that what they are doing is the modern equivalent of his brigade on a much larger scale.

This is an addendum to my last reply. Source: “http/national archives.gov.uk” 

“Meanwhile the Light Brigade, commanded by Major General the Earl of Cardigan, was awaiting orders.the Brigade consisted of the 13th DRAGOONS, the 4th DRAGOONS. The 17th Lancers, 8th Hussars and 11th Hussars.” The all caps are mine. The Lancers and Hussars were considered Calvary , but the Dragoons were definitely mounted infantry.

[Vacillator]

3 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

This is an addendum to my last reply. Source: “http/national archives.gov.uk” 

“Meanwhile the Light Brigade, commanded by Major General the Earl of Cardigan, was awaiting orders.the Brigade consisted of the 13th DRAGOONS, the 4th DRAGOONS. The 17th Lancers, 8th Hussars and 11th Hussars.” The all caps are mine. The Lancers and Hussars were considered Calvary , but the Dragoons were definitely mounted infantry.

While this is an interesting addendum, I fail to see how it adds to the coverage of the plight of our brave Ukrainian friends .  Joking, partly .

Edited March 14, 2022 by Vacillator

[BFCElvis]

25 minutes ago, Probus said:

The only thing I don't want to happen is political arguing or anything that will derail the thread.  Technical arguing, strategic arguing, for sure, but we have to leave the politics out and try to figure out what exactly is happening on the ground to the best of our amateur armchair general abilities.  Some much less amateur than others.

Political arguing, conspiracy theory spreading, Russian propaganda and apologists for Putin are what we should strive to avoid. 

[Commanderski]

Now would be a good time for China to take back some of it's disputed territory. Vladivostok used to be Qing dynasty's Manchurian homeland named Haishenwai but was annexed by Russia in 1860 after China's second opium war defeat. 

[womble]

6 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

This is an addendum to my last reply. Source: “http/national archives.gov.uk” 

“Meanwhile the Light Brigade, commanded by Major General the Earl of Cardigan, was awaiting orders.the Brigade consisted of the 13th DRAGOONS, the 4th DRAGOONS. The 17th Lancers, 8th Hussars and 11th Hussars.” The all caps are mine. The Lancers and Hussars were considered Calvary , but the Dragoons were definitely mounted infantry.

Unfortunately for the "dragoons are mounted infantry" argument, by that time, the British Army Dragoon regiments were all cavalry, not mounted infantry. According to wikipedia, most of the dragoon regiments had converted to hussars or lancers, and the remaining Drgoon Guard regiments were actually heavy cavalry, though earlier usage had cavalry redesignated as dragoons, since dragoons were paid less...

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, womble said:

Unfortunately for the "dragoons are mounted infantry" argument, by that time, the British Army Dragoon regiments were all cavalry, not mounted infantry. According to wikipedia, most of the dragoon regiments had converted to hussars or lancers, and the remaining Drgoon Guard regiments were actually heavy cavalry, though earlier usage had cavalry redesignated as dragoons, since dragoons were paid less...

guys keep it up and we are going to have to discuss if Dragoons carry a purse like mine.  That is critical info to know.

[Vacillator]

5 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

Now would be a good time for China to take back some of it's disputed territory. Vladivostok used to be Qing dynasty's Manchurian homeland named Haishenwai but was annexed by Russia in 1860 after China's second opium war defeat. 

Don't forget the 'close friendship' between the Russian and Chinese leaders, just described on Channel 4 News by a Chinese expert as a form of 'bromance'.  I wouldn't have chosen that word .

[Commanderski]

If Battlefront modeled the next Black Sea module after the way the Russians are "fighting" now I don't think anybody would want to play as it would be way too easy.