How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

  What my point was is that they were pushed to produce fantasy reports which were acted upon before the FSB had a chance to raise objections.

Steve

I recently described the recent turn in Putin's circle as "Andropovian" and I think that holds up given how badly the paranoia and biases of the leadership led the intelligence assessments. 

[sburke]

52 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Was looking for a video I saw earlier in which hard proof was shown the media in Ukraine are using CNN-grade deception techniques (recall the reporter clinging to a pole in the hurricane while a powerful fan drenched him with water?) to paint a false picture of what's really happening in Kviv. In that not yet found anew video you could clearly see that an artificial barricade and surrounds had been built and the camera positioned in such a way that it could seem to be looking through an embrasure. Yet nothing was happening, the reporter was in body armor, and there was no damage at all to the buildings behind the barricade. Didn't find the video I wanted but I found something far more interesting and disturbing. Part of it was a BBC investigation of who Zelensky really is and where the real power lies in Ukraine. There are extensive BBC interviews with him, and you'll be amazed to know what he was doing before being elected President. The other part of it consists of one brutal exposure (through comparing videos and stills) after another of Russian deceptions, Ukrainian deceptions and media deceptions from a bunch of countries ref events in Ukraine and earlier events. The whole thing is presented in the context of "Wag The Dog", and the doc is interspersed with pertinent scenes from that 1997 film. Knew full well both sides were telling lies and hiding truth in this war, but nothing prepared me for what's revealed in this stunning doc. Some of the techniques revealed weren't even feasible when "Wag The Dog" was made. When it's all said and done at 21:50, you might find yourself wondering how much of "Wag The Dog" was disturbing, provocative fiction and how much was revelation of how credible false realities can be created and used to create uncertainty, fear, panic, even "justify" a war. 

https://inoneplace.com/thewatch/wag-the-dog-in-ukraine-can-you-trust-the-media/

Regards,

John Kettler

Why are you here? there are plenty of other places you could be that would love this stuff.  This isn't one of them.

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Question: how big was the assumed size and what is the current estimate based on the above.

billblindc,

My initial impression is that it consisted of those destroyed  BMDs, BTR-Ds, a fuel truck, a Strela-10, some MTLBs (one of which looked like a command track; had a big erectable antenna mast down its left side, an APU on the. back and gobs of stuff on the roof normal MTLBs don't have), as seen in the video/s in which the Ukrainian guy videos the scene by walking along the street pretty much cursing the Russians nonstop. By rough count, would say it was a VDV company with the named attachments from the Russian Army. Thought that was it. Wrong!

Next thing I knew I was seeing more V marked AFVs at a large intersection in a different video. There were several BMD-2s, three, I believe,  (one with dead Russians atop its deck) and at least one tank. But as they say on the informercials, but wait; there's more!

Days passed, and loa and behold, there's another video showing a convoy of tanks and trucks, all marked with the V and proceeding from left screen foreground to left screen background. There ate spindly trees to the left of the convoy and parallel to the road. The video didn't last long and didn't show the beginning of that almost bumper to bumper (loose metaphor) slowly moving convoy, and there were more coming when the video ended.

Am going to make a SWAG here. Presuming that everything V marked was part of the must stop at all costs special operation, my estimate is that we're looking at a true overall V force size of at least a battalion of infantry, with about a third being VDV. There were enough trucks of the type used for carrying troops to carry the balance of a battalion, and remember that BMD platoon in the second video, which means VDV AFVs alone amounted to a full company and a platoon, so platoon (+). Didn't see any Stela-10 or any time of Tunguska or ZSU-23/4, but I believe I did see a couple of to be expected fuel trucks. In aggregate there were at least three tanks in the V force, likely many more simply not imaged. In my view, that figure could easily be a company (10 tanks). this happens to make perfect sense, because reinforcing an infantry battalion with a tank company is common. Didn't see any SPHs (2S1, 2S3, Msta-S), but I have a nagging feeling somebody mentioned Nona (tracked SP 120 mm DP mortar) in connection with the first video. Logic suggests that a reinforced battalion would have more fire support than that, but since the Nona is VDV specific (as opposed to the wheeled Nona-S), maybe one as FS for the VDV company would, given its high ROF suffice, though I'd expect at least a pair. Returning to SPHs, a battalion would typically have a 6-gun battery, command track and fire observation track, too. Summing up, my conclusion, bearing in mind the earlier caveat, the likely composition was:



1 x VDV Company (+) (mix of BMD-2, BTR-D, possibly 1 confirmed or possibly 2 Nona for FS)

2 x Motor Rifle Company ), in trucks

Support


1 x Tank Company (deduced from observed tanks and doctrine)
Unknown total of MTLBs of various types, including estimated command track with apparent long range radio installed

3 or + fuel trucks (BTG has 3)

Missing Altogether In Videos

1 x SPH Battery ( 6 x 2S1 typical, but maybe  6 x 2S3, plus for either command track & fire observation vehicle, plus various trucks)

Pioneers

At least a squad, either in an MTLB or on a truck

Thus, the true force is a hybrid AFV & truck mounted battalion (+), likely supported by a Tank Company, but in no case less than a Tank Platoon, with accompanying AD in the form of likely 2 x Strela-10, plus at least the fuel capacity of a BTG, while operating a lot of far more fuel efficient than MTLBs trucks. The missing artillery battery would likely have one fuel truck itself, too. There would be a least a squad of Pioneers, too. The net result is a powerful, self-contained, AD equipped composite force with probably more than adequate fuel. Taking everything into consideration, it's easy to see why the V force became a must stop at all costs.

Regards,

John Kettler

 






 

Edited March 11, 2022 by John Kettler

[Kinophile]

Out of idle (very idle) curiosity I took some of the Attack On Europe data and made a little table:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-UPOzCaPk5-JbYkibfhQnoGewZ31SpQGadDRJLyL2eI/edit?usp=sharing

So long as UKR can maintain that almost 4:1 ratio of losses to gains, even down to 3:1, then they have a real chance of stalling the RUS invasion.

If they can rapidly increase that ratio (eg causing a cascade of mass surrenders) they could actually defeat Ivan.

Of course, if RUS can reduce that ratio, especially if they finally manage to actually encircle a significant UKR combat grouping, then UKR has serious problems.

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by Kinophile

[John Kettler]

13 minutes ago, sburke said:

Why are you here? there are plenty of other places you could be that would love this stuff.  This isn't one of them.

sburke,

There have been multiple critiques in this thread of alleged 2022 combat footage or the aftermath of combat. I myself got dinged, I believe by you, for retweeting Molotov attack video from 2014, and the doc to which I linked shows far more of such using prior video while treating it as current. But it's not just mislabeling the doc exposes, it also reveals the use of industrial explosion video to look like an attack has taken place in this invasion. And as if that's not enough, it shows film clips are being used to portray alleged real events, and clips from games like Arma 3 are being used to depict air attacks, Why is it okay to criticize videos in this thread over their issues but not okay to show evidence of similar and often, far worse malfeasance by Russia, Ukraine, and media around the world? Why not take 21 minutes, watch the video and then see how it does or doesn't sit with you in light of things we know to be true here and your own knowledge base and gut? Rejecting it because I posted it and you don't like the subject matter isn't a great way to receive learn information which could be quite valuable to your understanding of what's really going on and why.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[Kinophile]

How about the two of you take it outside and go full on Handbags At Dawn?

My bet is on Sburke's Fendi Peekaboo Iconic Mini.

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by Kinophile

[sburke]

31 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

How about the two of you take it outside and go full on Handbags At Dawn?

My bet is on Sburke's Fendi Peekaboo Iconic Mini.

 

How did you know about my Fendi Peekaboo Iconic Mini?  Your sources aren't that good though.  Wrong color

[danfrodo]

(deleted a not nice post)

Edited March 11, 2022 by danfrodo
deleted, it was a not nice post

[Kinophile]

heh

[Battlefront.com]

OK, let's stick to the topic and not get into handbag fashion discussion.

That said, the fact that we've drifted off topic does appear to reinforce the sense that the war had decidedly turned in a new direction.  The current strategy of letting the Russians walk into ambushes and lay them waste has been doing great so far, but Ukraine is clearly showing that it is shifting into counter attack mode by launching several successful (very local) actions yesterday.  At the same time Russia barely attempted to move anywhere.

What seems to be evident is that Ukraine is now committing significant amounts of light infantry into the fight.  Not just hit and run type movements, but pushing enough into a particular area that it can be successfully defended.

We should see some interesting things over the next few days.

Steve

[danfrodo]

I hope these UKR infantry attacks don't get caught by russian artillery.  They hopefully have enough missiles to fight off armor & helicopters, but arty could be ugly.  Ambushes are a lot safer than attacks, as all us CM folks know.

[dan/california]

Based on the quality of their operations so far it would take most Russian units an hour to call for fire from the battalion mortar battery, if they even have those in this disaster of an army. Definitely want be cautious you haven't found

15 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I hope these UKR infantry attacks don't get caught by russian artillery.  They hopefully have enough missiles to fight off armor & helicopters, but arty could be ugly.  Ambushes are a lot safer than attacks, as all us CM folks know.

one of the two competent units in the whole mess though. 

[MikeyD]

Putin is firing generals and demanding results. That implies some sort of impromptu push on Kiev just to assuage Putin's wrath. That was probably the point of that highway suicide run towards Brovary. Do just enough so they can tell the Great Leader 'Hey, at least we tried!'

[sburke]

White House warns Russia against nationalizing McDonalds, Apple, other companies pulling out over Ukraine (msn.com)

[TheVulture]

Some other news items from yesterday:

9 a.m.: The latest intelligence report from the British Ministry of Defense indicates a “notable decrease in overall Russian air activity over Ukraine in recent days,” likely due to the effectiveness of Ukraine’s air defenses. 

7 p.m.: Russia is suspending exports of wheat, meslin, rye, barley and corn to the other members of the Eurasian Economic Union until Aug. 31.

11 p.m.: The U.S. is looking at ways of transferring advanced Soviet-era air defense systems to Ukraine. They include SA-8, SA-10 and S-300 systems capable of shooting down cruise missiles and aircraft flying at high altitudes. Bulgaria, Greece and Slovakia all have S-300s.

[Boche]

8 hours ago, Artkin said:

What about the 10th Mountain Division then?

Well ok, fair enough. I wil give a pass on mountain infantry being light, seeing that thats a prerequisite for their existance. . Here in Spain you could also make the case the only light infantry left is the mountain battalions. I mean my "MOS" is light infantry and....yeah no. If we ever go anywhere we are gonna carry a lot of stuff.

[Taranis]

Quote

09:49
Poutine ordonne de faciliter l’envoi de combattants « volontaires » en Ukraine
Le président russe a ordonné à son armée de faciliter l’envoi de combattants « volontaires » en Ukraine en réponse à l’acheminement, selon lui, de « mercenaires » par l’Occident. « Si vous voyez que des gens veulent y aller (…), qui plus est pas pour de l’argent, et aider ceux qui vivent dans le Donbass, alors il faut aller à leur rencontre et les aider à rejoindre la zone de combat », a dit Vladimir Poutine lors d’une réunion du conseil de sécurité russe.

Il répondait à une proposition de son ministre de la défense, Sergei Choïgou, qui avait déclaré que 16 000 volontaires du Moyen-Orient étaient prêts à venir combattre avec les forces soutenues par la Russie.

09:49
Putin orders to facilitate the sending of “volunteer” fighters to Ukraine
The Russian president has ordered his army to facilitate the dispatch of "volunteer" fighters to Ukraine in response to what he says is the delivery of "mercenaries" by the West. “If you see that people want to go there (…), moreover not for money, and help those who live in the Donbass, then you have to meet them and help them to join the combat zone” , Vladimir Putin said at a meeting of the Russian Security Council.

He was responding to a proposal from his Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, who said that 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East were ready to come and fight with Russian-backed forces.

Source : Le Monde

[Taranis]

Russian army "propaganda"
 

 

 

[Baneman]

10 minutes ago, Taranis said:

... moreover not for money,

Yeah, right.

4 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Russian army "propaganda"
 

lmao, the vehicles driving past the infantry ! ( explains a lot ... )

[Taranis]

Quote

10:47
Vladimir Poutine étudie des déploiements militaires pour répondre à ceux de l’Otan
Lors d’une réunion télévisée de son conseil de sécurité, le président russe a demandé à son ministre de la défense, Sergueï Choïgou, de lui proposer des redéploiements militaires à la frontière occidentale de la Russie. Une réponse, explique-t-il, aux mouvements des troupes de l’Otan en Europe orientale.

Les pays de l’Otan ont déployé des milliers d’hommes en Europe centrale et orientale, notamment en Pologne et dans les trois pays baltes, qui ont des frontières communes avec la Russie.

10:47
Vladimir Putin studies military deployments to respond to those of NATO
During a televised meeting of his security council, the Russian president asked his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, to offer him military redeployments on Russia's western border. A response, he explains, to the movements of NATO troops in Eastern Europe.

NATO countries have deployed thousands of men in central and eastern Europe, particularly in Poland and the three Baltic countries, which have common borders with Russia.

Source : Le Monde

Putler the terrorist...

[Freyberg]

5 hours ago, John Kettler said:

There have been multiple critiques in this thread of alleged 2022 combat footage or the aftermath of combat.

John Kettler,

I personally appreciate your contribution to CM over the years - you have searched out things that are historical, factual, and often extremely interesting. Some things on this particular thread are possibly propaganda, maybe to some degree on both sides. I don't mind that - I like to know what propaganda is out there. It's OK to hear this stuff direct, then you can make up your own mind.

Another very common type of post in CM forums is the opinion post - some of it quite well-informed, a bit more of it being 'armchair general' kind of stuff. I find opinion posts less interesting, but a lot of people like them.

Anyway, I'm glad you post the things you find - I have no time to search out any of this stuff myself. I don't like it that others are rude to you - my rather long list of people I've blocked on this forum is made up of rude people, something I can't abide.

Anyway - keep posting. I've always appreciated your diverse posts on CM and I continue to appreciate them

[Taranis]

GRAPHIC TEXT ! Be aware before reading, but important for not closing the eyes on this tragedy

 

Quote

11:06 
A la morgue de Mykolaïv, des cadavres empilés et des sacs mortuaires sous la neige
Le cadavre gît les mains jointes, comme en prière. En réalité, raconte l’employé de la morgue, il jetait des cocktails molotov quand les Russes l’ont attrapé. Ils lui ont attaché les mains et l’ont exécuté. Ces images glaçantes nous proviennent de la morgue de Mykolaïv, ville sur les bords de la mer Noire, sous le feu russe depuis des jours.

A l’extérieur, dans la cour de l’institut médico-légal où se trouve la morgue, la neige tombe sans discontinuer sur des cadavres enveloppés dans des sacs mortuaires en plastique gris, en attente d’être évacués.Dans les locaux vétustes et délabrés, d’autres corps sont posés à même le sol, faute de place. L’odeur insidieuse de la mort, mêlée à celle d’un désinfectant douceâtre, est partout. Ici, il y a les victimes de la guerre, civils et soldats, mais aussi les morts de cause naturelle. Des médecins pratiquent des autopsies dans des conditions d’hygiène douteuses. Il faut enjamber des corps nus pour accéder à la chambre froide, où s’empilent les cadavres de victimes d’un bombardement survenu quelques jours auparavant à Otchakiv, dans la région de Mykolaïv.

Vladimir, l’un des employés de la morgue, allume cigarette sur cigarette. « Je n’ai jamais vu une telle chose. Nous pensions que la pire chose qui pouvait nous arriver ici étaient les accidents de voiture », dit-il en secouant la tête. Lui et ses collègues travaillent sans relâche. Retraversant la cour, il ouvre une porte sur un spectacle cauchemardesque. Une trentaine de cadavres sont posés à même le sol. Deux soldats en treillis, l’un éventré, sont même empilés l’un sur l’autre. « Ils sont si jeunes, plus jeunes que mon neveu », grince Vladimir. Au fond de la pièce, il y a aussi un soldat russe, affirme-t-il. « Nous les gardons à l’écart ». On distingue aussi les corps de civils, toujours dans la même pièce. Un employé ôte délicatement la chaîne au cou d’un cadavre, qui servira pour l’identification.

Mykolaïv et sa région sont le théâtre de violents combats et bombardements russes, mais les Ukrainiens résistent et ont même repris l’aéroport au nord, il y a quelques jours. La ville est stratégique car elle constitue le dernier verrou avant la grande cité portuaire d’Odessa. « Depuis le début de la guerre, nous avons reçu 120 corps, dont 80 soldats et 30 civils », explique d’un air exténué la directrice de l’institut médico-légal, Olga Dierugina. « Parmi les victimes civiles, le plus jeune était un enfant de trois ans et le plus vieux un septuagénaire », poursuit-elle.

Quote

 

11:06
At the Mykolaiv morgue, piled up corpses and body bags under the snow
The corpse lies with its hands joined, as if in prayer. In reality, says the morgue employee, he was throwing molotov cocktails when the Russians caught him. They tied his hands and executed him. These chilling images come to us from the morgue of Mykolaiv, a city on the shores of the Black Sea, under Russian fire for days.

Outside, in the courtyard of the forensic institute where the morgue is located, the snow is constantly falling on corpses wrapped in gray plastic body bags, waiting to be evacuated. dilapidated, other bodies are laid on the floor, for lack of space. The insidious smell of death, mixed with that of a sweetish disinfectant, is everywhere. Here, there are the victims of war, civilians and soldiers, but also the deaths of natural causes. Doctors perform autopsies in questionable hygienic conditions. You have to step over naked bodies to access the cold room, where the corpses of victims of a bombardment that occurred a few days earlier in Otchakiv, in the Mykolaiv region, are piled up.

Vladimir, one of the morgue employees, lights cigarette after cigarette. “I have never seen such a thing. We thought the worst thing that could happen to us here was car accidents,” he said, shaking his head. He and his colleagues work tirelessly. Crossing the courtyard again, he opens a door onto a nightmarish spectacle. About thirty corpses are placed on the ground. Two soldiers in fatigues, one gutted, are even stacked on top of each other. “They are so young, younger than my nephew,” grinds Vladimir. At the back of the room, there is also a Russian soldier, he claims. “We keep them away.” We also distinguish the bodies of civilians, always in the same room. An employee gently removes the chain around the neck of a corpse, which will be used for identification.

Mykolaiv and its region are the scene of heavy fighting and Russian bombardment, but the Ukrainians are resisting and even took over the airport from the north a few days ago. The city is strategic because it is the last lock before the great port city of Odessa. “Since the start of the war, we have received 120 bodies, including 80 soldiers and 30 civilians,” explains the director of the forensic institute, Olga Dierugina, with an exhausted air. “Among the civilian victims, the youngest was a three-year-old child and the oldest a septuagenarian,” she continues.

 

Source : Le Monde

Edited March 11, 2022 by Taranis

[DesertFox]

two more T-80s stuck in the mud...

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

43 minutes ago, Taranis said:

10:47
Vladimir Putin studies military deployments to respond to those of NATO
During a televised meeting of his security council, the Russian president asked his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, to offer him military redeployments on Russia's western border. A response, he explains, to the movements of NATO troops in Eastern Europe.

NATO countries have deployed thousands of men in central and eastern Europe, particularly in Poland and the three Baltic countries, which have common borders with Russia.

Source : Le Monde

Putler the terrorist...

Just cheap clatter of arms. The bastard deployed his troops a long, long time ago. Cheap propaganda. He doesn't seems to realize he pisses more people off with that, than he intimidates.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

09:49
Putin orders to facilitate the sending of “volunteer” fighters to Ukraine
The Russian president has ordered his army to facilitate the dispatch of "volunteer" fighters to Ukraine in response to what he says is the delivery of "mercenaries" by the West. “If you see that people want to go there (…), moreover not for money, and help those who live in the Donbass, then you have to meet them and help them to join the combat zone” , Vladimir Putin said at a meeting of the Russian Security Council.

He was responding to a proposal from his Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, who said that 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East were ready to come and fight with Russian-backed forces.

Source : Le Monde

That moment when you have to replace your "strongest army in the world" with nobodies from the middle east