How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yes. Reminds me of a very good movie. The Death of Stalin a 2017 political satire black comedy film written and directed by Armando Iannucci.

The scene where Beria met his fate. BÄM and hes gone.

that was brilliant movie.  Putin can go the way of Beria in the movie, I hope.  W some general doing the deed.

[riptides]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

From Steve's keyboard to God's ears. 

So what does this russian military collapse look like do you think? 

I think it looks like current events. Shocked, beaten demoralized troops returning to Russia with the truth.

[Kinophile]

34 minutes ago, riptides said:

If true, that would be a rather massive loss, and what kind of commander parks that much equipment in such a small area.

I have serious doubts of the number being 30+, but lol I have serious doubts about the RUS REMF competence as it is...so....

 

Also, re Ceacuscu, he drove his country into the ground for decades. External events gave his people other options/hopes. The current RUS economy would need to spiral for 5+ years minimum for Putin's removal to even be talked about seriously.

Edited March 7, 2022 by Kinophile

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, riptides said:

I think it looks like current events. Shocked, beaten demoralized troops returning to Russia with the truth.

If something sounds too good to be true, it usually is...

[DesertFox]

Nice one:

 

 

[Kinophile]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I had predicted the "end game" to have been yesterday.  Obviously I wasn't exactly on the mark, but I think I'm going to wind up being pretty close to it.  Far closer than those who still say this will take months to play out.  It won't because it can't.

I also had (hoped) that the end game would bring about a swift removal of Putin from power.  I'm still holding out hope that when the Russian military overtly collapses that will happen.  I have no doubts that discussions are already going on and have moved away from "if we should act" to "when and how to act".

Steve

I don't buy it @Battlefront.com. You seem unrealistically optimistic. I'm not convinced at all by your timeline for Putler's remove.

Edited March 7, 2022 by Kinophile

[danfrodo]

Here's a great look at a group of local Ukrainian heroes fighting and winning for days on end.  Commanders says russians have abandoned he doesn't have enough people to collect it all.  That ties in w what Steve is saying.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/world/europe/ukraine-beats-russia-mykolaiv.html

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

I don't think anyone will do anything to Putin before the Russian army is seen to lose the war decisively. Getting kicked out of Ukraine completely. Then UKR starting to take back the land in the east and maybe even Crimea.

But as long as they are still in there and fighting, the wheel's still in spin.

[Haiduk]

Abandoned Russian Uragan MLRS in Sumy oblast. It has  regional number 50 - Western military district

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Here's a great look at a group of local Ukrainian heroes fighting and winning for days on end.  Commanders says russians have abandoned he doesn't have enough people to collect it all.  That ties in w what Steve is saying.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/world/europe/ukraine-beats-russia-mykolaiv.html

 

We're talking about the 2nd largest army in the world here. Plenty more where that came from. 

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I don't buy it @Battlefront.com. You seem unrealistically optimistic. I'm not convinced at all by your timeline for Putler's remove.

Past performance does not predict future success, all the time. But Steve was right about a LOT two weeks ago.

[John Kettler]

53 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

That can be excused for your first few posts, until a number of members pointed them out and asked you to stop. Might I suggest that you take the time to read this thread to the end before making anymore of those posts? Then, you can go back and make the posts that you feel are pertinent.

Vet 0369, but please bear in mind doing it that way is going to entail an immense amount of reading (a task which just grew by another 33 posts) in order to get to the point that I can theoretically operate from an informed position. The downside of this is that my brain will be in overload, making it difficult to incorporate my own observations and reactions to days of events, discoveries, tech acquired, weapons expended and more. How far back from the latest post, IYO, do you suggest I go in order to follow current developments?

Regards,

John Kettler

[Thomm]

Is there an option for hiding the hints that an ignored person has posted something?

[keas66]

12 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

We're talking about the 2nd largest army in the world here. Plenty more where that came from. 

See that's where I am not seeing a lot of info posted - How much exactly Does the Russian Army have left outside of the Ukraine and how much if any of it can be moved ? They presumably still need to maintain forces blocking NATO  , China ,  Turkey and anyone else on their Borders . How many forces do they have remaining to feed into the Ukraine Meat grinder ?

Edited March 7, 2022 by keas66
spelling

[danfrodo]

So dumb question: what happens to a russian AFV or tank that is out of fuel?  Can you still rotate the turret on a MBT?  on BMPs?  Are they defenseless or just degraded in turret speed?  What other issues would arise?

I'm asking this because of how it affects what a crew would do when stranded.  A low morale crew vs a high morale crew might make different choices if still able to fight.

[BornGinger]

57 minutes ago, riptides said:

... what kind of commander parks that much equipment in such a small area?

I guess reports of strategy, tactics and logistics are true too.

It seems that the military academies in Russia already know which subjects to focus on more extensivly.

And maybe those subjects will be given more time in other countries too.

[White2Golf]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

So dumb question: what happens to a russian AFV or tank that is out of fuel?  Can you still rotate the turret on a MBT?  on BMPs?  Are they defenseless or just degraded in turret speed?  What other issues would arise?

I'm asking this because of how it affects what a crew would do when stranded.  A low morale crew vs a high morale crew might make different choices if still able to fight.

Well, we can fight an M1 that is totally dead, zero power.   The gunner's arm will get sore really, really fast cranking the turret around and you have zero fancy optics.   But all the pointy things can still shoot that way.  It's just difficult.  I imagine Russian stuff can do that too.   

[Battlefront.com]

Great movie!!  The brilliance was using varied English accents to represent the varied Russian accents.  But I digress!

What will collapse look like?  All military collapses have three components:

1.  establishing the preliminary elements necessary for a collapse

2.  a tipping point, which can be a singular event or a quick succession of them

3.  collapse, which can be either localized or generalized, or starts out as one and transforms into the other.  I believe the latter is likely to happen in this case, but the time lag between localized to generalized will be very quick (maybe less than a day),

#1 is already there.  I think it was there within the first 2-3 days of the war, but it took a little while longer for us to be sure that Russia didn't have a rabbit to pull out of its hat.  Even those who were sure they didn't had to at least consider it could happen.

It is very difficult to pinpoint #2 until after #3 happens.  And even then there is probably room for legitimate debate between this or that thesis.  However, just because you can't see something doesn't mean it isn't happening.  Recent example is all the experts who didn't think Russia was getting ready to invade, and yet it was already in progress.

#3 collapse itself is fairly easy to recognize when it happens.  In the case of this war you'll see entire Russian units surrender or walk back to Russia on a much larger scale than we're currently seeing.  I can even see the possibility, at least here and there, where Ukrainians allow Russians safe passage back home provided they march together unarmed alone or under guard.  I don't see it being any one thing.

The reason this will go quickly is because the conditions that will lead to a unit surrendering are near universal across the entire theater of operations; low morale, low motivation (different than morale), horrific losses, lack of food, communications problems, highly motivated enemy, little ability to defend against attack, etc.

I don't see it ending any other way unless Russia negotiates with Ukraine a total withdrawal without preconditions.  Who thinks that is going to happen?  Short of a coup that orders an immediate unilateral cease fire, I don't think that is going to happen.  So military collapse is the way it will likely go.

Steve

[Taranis]

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Past performance does not predict future success, all the time. But Steve was right about a LOT two weeks ago.

He didn't see the invasion coming. I did.

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So dumb question: what happens to a russian AFV or tank that is out of fuel?  Can you still rotate the turret on a MBT?  on BMPs?  Are they defenseless or just degraded in turret speed?  What other issues would arise?

I'm asking this because of how it affects what a crew would do when stranded.  A low morale crew vs a high morale crew might make different choices if still able to fight.

Most vehicles retain the ability to rotate turrets and fire their co-ax MGs.  But there's a lot of sub systems that require electricity in order to function.  The more modernized the vehicle is, the more electricity is required.  MAYBE some of them can be done off of the vehicle's batteries for a little while, but not for very long.  And if Russian batteries are as well maintained as their tires, even less.

Think about your own passenger car.  Can you operate the windows when the engine is off?  Yes, whether they are electric or hand crank.  But if they are electric, can you operate them with a dead battery?  No.  And how is the battery charged?  A running engine which, of course, requires fuel.  Other things require the engine to be running in a more direct way, in particular heat for the occupants.  Some vehicles might have electric heaters, but they'd kill the batteries very quickly.  Radios also have limited ability to function on battery power only.

Etc.

So yeah, basically if a military vehicle runs out of fuel it is usually out of the fight.  Even if it manages to stay in the fight (say a BTR with its MG turret), it is limited and not long lived.

Steve

[OldSarge]

The Pentagon is now saying that 100% of Russia's pre-staged force is now in Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pentagon-says-nearly-100-of-preset-russian-troops-are-now-in-ukraine/ar-AAUJPbZ?ocid=uxbndlbing

 

[Taranis]

Heavy firing russian BTR. "Kharkiv direction, the armored personnel carrier of the 674 regiment of the Russian Guard is shooting"

 

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, Taranis said:

Heavy firing russian BTR. "Kharkiv direction, the armored personnel carrier of the 674 regiment of the Russian Guard is shooting"

 

See, Dan? Dead Russians can't shoot...