How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago Pisky:

Translation: oh, what a "zaruba" [rus&ukr jargon "tough hardcore showdown"] in Pisky - crazy rumble and the ground trembles in 5 km area

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

On one level I agree with you, and on one level I am for ANYTHING that make Russian recruitment harder. Wide circulation of this video would seem to really help the latter.

On another level- in what country do bus drivers carry baseball bats (visible in video)?

54 minutes ago, Mattias said:

For more on that. I sincerely hope you have all seen these, part 1 and 2. Much of the action takes place around Pisky. Very grim and sobering stuff.

Oh, one of the best documents about early phases of Donbas war. They record war week after week and there are lot of interviews with soldiers; you can really feel how real fighting force is forged in combat. 93rd rose from that time as one of the most elite brigades in Ukrianian army. They wreck occupants now in wider Izium area, publishing dozens of videos of their efforts.

Russians MSTA-s reportedly rolling over Crimea bridge.

[Lethaface]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

On another level- in what country do bus drivers carry baseball bats (visible in video)?

Probably most countries on certain lines.

[Grigb]

Map of Pisky

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Yes, good podcast. Another item that stuck out to me is that the UAF never really trained for offensive operations.

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Really interesting stuff. The newest bits , at least to me, are about what was happening right before and after 2/24.

 

[G.I. Joe]

31 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Right?!  Gawd help us if we in the west ever get into a real war.  After the first setback we will be ready to wave white flags if this proxy war is any indication.  I am losing count of how many times the Russians take a small berg somewhere after weeks of trying and people freak out - “aaah, see the Russians are winning!  Abandon ship!!”  

Meanwhile the Ukrainians are basically spelling on bridges with arty shells and crippling Russian logistics, after collapsing a Russian front in the north, pushing them off Kharkiv, stalling then Donbas assault, and now this thing in Kherson.  But those are just flukes as the “Russians bide their time” and wait for their moment…while bleeding all over everything.

One does wonder how well some of these commentators would have handled 1940, 1941 or 1942...

[Grigb]

Got to FB and here is todays post from UKR Sergey Gnezdilov that first reported the crisis in Pisky.

Quote

In the Pisky, the situation is difficult, but controlled.
We are working. Our arty works! Help has come.

So, this could be the reason why RU assault groups are not pushing very hard today in Pisky.

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

One does wonder how well some of these commentators would have handled 1940, 1941 or 1942...

Yeah, I am picturing Eisenhower walking into the first big staff meeting during battle of the bulge, seeing map and wetting his pants .  Oh wait, I mis-remembered that.  He actually said something about the great opportunity provided by the germans leaving their defenses.  (Note, I don't think anyone here on the forum is wetting their pants, but the pundit world probably will be)

Current situation is on-going murder, but everything RU gets comes at much greater cost to RU than to UKR.  And if RU decides to keep its arty doing massed fire on this small sector then it's an opportunity for UKR CB fire.  Plus RU is plowing through shells that aren't going to be available elsewhere, all to take one town that is still very, very far from Bakmut.  This is unsustainable for RU.  Meanwhile they are weakening this front to shore up Zaporize & Kherson.  So if they couldn't advance w everything in the donbas, how they gonna do it w less?   RU transferring troops from around Izyum to the west means UKR can move troops also, or try to cut the road thru Izyum, creating another crisis for RU.  

Maybe I'll be proved wrong and this really is the beginning of a local disaster.  But what I see if RU offensives have been getting smaller and smaller and smaller, until the little town of Pisky is the only 'major' thing going right now.

[cyrano01]

57 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Right?!  Gawd help us if we in the west ever get into a real war.  After the first setback we will be ready to wave white flags if this proxy war is any indication.  I am losing count of how many times the Russians take a small berg somewhere after weeks of trying and people freak out - “aaah, see the Russians are winning!  Abandon ship!!”  

 

This, absolutely, and it has been around for a fair while. I recall watching news coverage of Gulf War 1 in the UK (can't recall whether it was BBC or ITV) with a report from a journalist accompanying the leading dismounted elements of a British Army infantry recce unit. They had come under machine gun fire and were in good cover waiting for artillery support  to do their thing but the journalist was rattling on dramatically about the attack grinding to a halt under heavy enemy fire, woe and catastrophe etc. I remember thinking at the time that reporter clearly had no historical or military context within which to recognise this as the 'small change' of day to day operations (although clearly important to the guys actually being shot at).

[OldSarge]

On this side of the pond, the U.S. Senate has approved (95-1) the resolution supporting Finland's and Sweden's decision to join NATO. The next step will be for President Biden's signature and the paperwork getting sent to NATO.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3586658-senate-ratifies-accession-of-sweden-and-finland-to-nato/

IIRC, that makes it 20 down 10 more to go.

Edited August 3, 2022 by OldSarge

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Map of Pisky

 

Probably not the right time to say this, but Pisky would make an ideal CMBS map 

[Beleg85]

It's HIMARS' o clock...again- Antonovsky bridge.

 

 

[danfrodo]

I hope they managed to hit those ferries along w the bridge.  The ferry spends the majority of its time in one of two spots, so even w/o realtime targeting could still take some high probability shots at it. 
 

So let's review:  Two RU supply trains destroyed last few days -- huge amount of supplies lots plus the rail line is blocked in two spots.  RU rail bridge recently damaged.  Multiple supply depots obliterated.  Kherson west area cutoff from Kherson east area by dropping bridges over that north-south river bisecting the RU bridgehead.  And RU recently put more  units in this kessel recently meaning supply needs have gone up. 

Sounds like maybe RU will try an offensive on left bank toward Zaprorize in an attempt to take the heat off Kherson.  But there's a lot of space between  RU front lines and anywhere that really threatens UKR strategically or operationally.  So go ahead, RU, make that move. 

This seems like a good time to start poking the bear in Kherson (w various probes & feints) to force him to expend ammo foolishly.  UKR can leave Pisky and no crisis.  RU is stuck in Kherson for epic history-book-laughing disaster.  I prefer UKR's position right now.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, cyrano01 said:

This, absolutely, and it has been around for a fair while. I recall watching news coverage of Gulf War 1 in the UK (can't recall whether it was BBC or ITV) with a report from a journalist accompanying the leading dismounted elements of a British Army infantry recce unit. They had come under machine gun fire and were in good cover waiting for artillery support  to do their thing but the journalist was rattling on dramatically about the attack grinding to a halt under heavy enemy fire, woe and catastrophe etc. I remember thinking at the time that reporter clearly had no historical or military context within which to recognise this as the 'small change' of day to day operations (although clearly important to the guys actually being shot at).

And I am not saying that people are not dying in Pisky or that it isn’t an intense fight.  What I am saying is that until the RA can actually demonstrate operational success and/or breakthrough these are intense tactical actions i.e. localized.  Now even if the RA could string a half dozen of these in rapid succession we could maybe take it as an indication of a shift, but another village ground down in slow time is just that.  Even if the UA takes heavy losses, they have had months to mobilize and integrate western equipment and support, while Russia continues to wear out their already tattered force.

The Russians packing guns into a small area and blasting their way 100m a day is not an achievement, it is a devolution of their doctrine and likely a forced one at that.  Everyone recall the advances they did in Feb-Mar, we are talking 100km+ in a few weeks - that was the last and only time the RA has fought like it is supposed to since then they have been doing WW1 style, which has gained them very little.  In fact I am not even sure Pisky qualifies as an end to the operational pause.

Regardless, I am not saying the UA is invincible, or the RA is doomed (although, I have my suspicions).  I am saying - especially to any lurkers out there who are worried - we need to stick to the facts here and base assessments on them.

I think we brought it up before but can you imagine Dunkirk today?  

[Battlefront.com]

More evidence that things aren't going so well around Izyum.  Well, for the Russians anyways:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/wfg3io/installation_of_the_flag_of_ukraine_on_the/

Video of Ukrainian soldiers hoisting a flag on a monument in Svyatogorsk Lavra, which is nearly due north of Slavyansk along the Siverskyi Donets.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Regardless, I am not saying the UA is invincible, or the RA is doomed (although, I have my suspicions).  I am saying - especially to any lurkers out there who are worried - we need to stick to the facts here and base assessments on them.

Yeah, I've been saying this sort of stuff since the start of the war, especially in response to journalists and "experts" that continually said that Ukraine was pretty much done because they lost this or that town.  For Ukraine it's never been about retaining terrain, it's always been about killing Russians.  On the other hand, it's all about taking terrain for the Russian side.  Their track record of taking terrain is PATHETIC from a historical standpoint, especially when one factors in Russia's superior numbers and immediate military resources.  Generally nations who fight pathetically against a supposedly inferior enemy on their home turf don't win wars.

Of course, this kind of thinking is from a war perspective, not a Human standpoint.  Every place Russia gets a crack at means dead, tortured, and displaced Ukrainian civilians. The more Ukraine can do to prevent this, the better.  It's just that from a strategic perspective the war won't be decided against Ukraine because of Russian atrocities.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I think we brought it up before but can you imagine Dunkirk today?  

"A fishing trawler was sunk this morning, so it looks like Dunkirk is a total disaster and we should lay down our arms before we make Mr. Hitler cross with us"

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Mattias said:

For more on that. I sincerely hope you have all seen these, part 1 and 2. Much of the action takes place around Pisky. Very grim and sobering stuff.

 

 

Thanks for bringing these two videos to our attention.  I just finished Part 1 and found it a great reminder of what went on in 2014 from the perspective of one of Ukraine's primary units.  I learned a lot of details that I missed when following the war at the time.  Including a lot of evidence of direct Russian involvement very early in the conflict that I don't think made the social and news media rounds at the time.  Not that we needed any more evidence of it at the time.  Plenty of it!

Two things jumped out at me while watching.  The first is just how small the battalions were even at the start of their deployments.  Easily 1/3rd of what they should have been.  It was pretty clear that Ukraine's forces were spread very thinly when they went on the offensive in July, but this video gave me a new perspective on it.  3-5 AFVs with a couple of squads tasked with taking over fairly significant metropolitan areas!  And yet Ukraine was rolling up the Russian and proxy forces pretty dramatically.  Ukraine's ability to do so much with so little is the #1 reason I was convinced Russia would lose this war long before Putin launched it.

The second thing was the commentary on Russian artillery.  At one point a veteran said something to the effect of "Russia usually missed us and when they hit it was by accident".  Sound familiar?

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

An interesting bit from today's ISW report:

Quote

Russian forces are continuing to transfer equipment throughout the Southern Axis. Geolocated social media footage showed Russian military vehicles moving in the northern direction from southern Melitopol. Mariupol Mayor Advisor Petro Andryushenko published footage of a Russian military convoy composed of engineering vehicles and trucks driving from Mariupol in the direction of Berdyansk. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are withdrawing military equipment that had originally been committed to the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline at the end of May due to a lack of personnel to man the equipment. The Ukrainian General Staff added that Russian forces are distributing the withdrawn equipment to unspecified tank elements of the 58^th Combined Arms Army. Such redistribution may indicate that the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline is particularly vulnerable but that the Russians do not intend to reinforce it.

What this is saying, I think, is that the big batches of equipment we saw moving around in the south was stuff that had been allocated to the southern front months ago, but has so far not been employed by anybody due to the lack of personnel.  However, it seems the vehicles are being allocated now to the 58th CAA, one of the primary units manning this part of the front.  Could be replacements for equipment lost?

In any case, it makes it sound like the stuff we saw moving around in the south aren't reinforcements.

The stuff entering Crimea over the Kerch bridge, on the other hand, MIGHT be.  But it's too soon to say if Russia is planning on keeping them in Crimea or pushing them up into either Kherson or Zaporizhzhia fronts.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I think we brought it up before but can you imagine Dunkirk today?  

I am sort of hoping to watch the Russians reenact it,  with the Dnipro standing in for the channel. Except for the mostly successful part. In my happy place half of them drown trying to swim, and the other half get captured in their skivvies, on camera. 

[dan/california]

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/wf0pb7/fighters_of_the_1st_assault_battalion_of_the_azov/

The penalty for sleeping on guard duty is severe. But not perhaps as severe as it could have been.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

Map time. Today unfortunately only evening Map

OK, so really we're seeing not much more than a replay of the usual daily fighting.  Russia bombards a whole bunch of places, launches at least a half dozen significant attacks, gets beaten back, claims "fighting in outskirts", and only a few exceptions emerge by the end of the day.  Two small settlements taken in the Bakhmut area and then the intense fighting within Pisky.

It will be interesting to note if the Ukrainian reinforcements (including artillery) that deployed to Pisky today make a difference tomorrow.

Steve

[JonS]

Hey! Look! Over there! /points_vaguely

Edited August 4, 2022 by JonS

[Battlefront.com]

I recommend this video of the 127th TD that is in the Kharkiv area sometime very recently.  You get to see some positional warfare reality, but you also see how Ukrainians move around and use light mortars.  Nice details to absorb:

One little fun thing is when they are in the woods they point up with index finger to communicate that there is a drone above.

The company commander talks about the tank that's bugging them shoots off its entire allotment of ammo as a matter of routine.  Sounds like it is positioned under an overpass and therefore difficult to hit, but I might have misunderstood that bit of discussion.

Note that most of the "fear" reaction to incoming Russian fire is coming from the media crew, not the soldiers there.

Soldiers are now wearing hearing protection because of all the incoming shelling.

There was a bit where the commander made sure the word had gone out that they were putting a drone up so their guys would know to expect it.

The communication with the mortars was pretty good in my non-professional opinion.  CO called in for the hit, mortar team acknowledged and said they are on 1 minute standby, both swore a lot about Russians (always good!), and then the CO turned it over to his drone guy.  From there the drone operator communicated directly with the mortar team and they calmly (with lots of swearing) got rounds onto the target.

Seems Russians don't like being hit with artillery so they react by firing off a bunch of AGS fire at Ukrainian positions.  Likely very poorly aimed at no particular target.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/wf0pb7/fighters_of_the_1st_assault_battalion_of_the_azov/

The penalty for sleeping on guard duty is severe. But not perhaps as severe as it could have been.

Dan, I fixed it for you.  When you post a Reddit link, look down at the bottom of the white text input area and you'll see a blue band with the option to "Display as a link instead".  Clicking on that will stop the video from embedding.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

On 8/2/2022 at 12:20 AM, JonS said:

Was anyone really saying the US lacked the ability to kill people anywhere in the world?

Does anyone really still think that killing people is counter-terrorism?

Yeah, you're right. Let them get away with terror, plan their next attrocity in peace and wait until they come to you again.