How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Quick update regarding Pisky - RU claim by the morning they control 70% of Pisky. Looks like:

• Previously (during crisis) UKR retreated toward western and northern outskirts defensive positions leaving hard hit center of the settlement completely
• Yesterday RU probed the remaining parts of the settlement and by today morning extended control further west

 

Edited August 4, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

I am stopping working on morning maps as it takes a lot of time yet it is much less useful. Instead, I would like to focus more on posting interesting tidbits faster. Like here is RU RUMINT from Kherson. (Other bits from other directions are - Chernihiv region either destroyed or suffered heavily (even LNR looks like civilization compared with Chernihiv. The local population hates RU. Initial RU losses were not high but shocking due to stupidity, notable percentage of RU officers is very reluctant to risk lives, subjectively at Kharkiv RU forces are being beaten hard)

Quote

Second hand information from a senior staff officer of the Airborne Forces from the Kherson
direction.

1. [His] mood is angry, but combative. Despite what has been said below, he himself is eager to return to the front
2. The attitude to the command is very negative. In many ways similar to Wein [Nickname of local RU forum "Girkin"] [local VDV troops] are dissatisfied with everything. From global plans, fail under Belogorovka [yes, that bridgehead debacle] (he was far away, but blames a particular general), lack of supplies, wear and tear of equipment to the point that the Command clamps deserved awards.
3. In his unit there were high losses of the senior command staff. Sees the risk there will not be enough commanders with experience in case of mobilization
4. Problems with the resource of vehicles.  During the battles a lot is lost and even more goes out of service from wear and tear.
5. Rembats save them. Now they have begun to restore and bring vehicles to a combat-ready state
6. There are not enough tanks in the airborne forces. In order to suppress the firing point, more than a day passes from the request of the brigade headquarters to the allocation of the tank. And they give tanks for a very limited time.
7. What comes to replacing the lost, worn-out equipment is worse than the one with which they began to fight. From BMD3 / 2 they are transferring to 1. There is not enough special equipment, for example, pontoons
8. Fears that such an expenditure of equipment will not be enough to occupy Lviv and Kyiv
9. Scolds Shoigu and everything else that after Lisichansk he took the troops to rest, instead of "moving on on the shoulders of the retreating enemy" [RU propaganda often creates a lot of wishful thinking among uninvolved troops]
10. Evaluates the progress of "+- 1 village", it will take years to reach the Polish border at this rate.
11. Hopes for mobilization 
12. Prolonged, months-long stay under regular shelling without rotations greatly reduce morale and combat capability. Rotation is required for troops
13. Was on vacation, but yesterday [he] urgently flew to the base of his unit.

PS Maybe it became too negative when retelling, since the communication was through a person with a serious illness in a department called the "hell branch" [vague statement- probably the retelling person is in bad situation witch most likely related to the fighting, but it is too unclear]

 

 

[Grigb]

Fresh RU HIMARS pain.

RU propagandist is in severe pain

Quote

The issue of "HIMARS" is one of the key issues in the SMO in Ukraine. They greatly interfere, really interfere with work. They slapped Chernobayevka once again. They are already tired of counting how many times "HIMARS" has arrived.

The issue of "HIMARS" needs to be solved RADICALLY. How? The solution to this issue is not within the framework of the air defense forces, since they can only shoot down some of the missiles, stopping the strike, but no more.

It is only necessary to destroy the HIMARS by air with the use of bomber or strategic aviation. And here targeting and reconnaissance becomes critical, i.e. the preservation of a simple chain: "Exact coordinates — destruction."

 

The Unanimous RU Nat affiliated with RU intelligence hints other Nats at backpedaling aggressive RU rhetoric toward NATO.

Quote

The Ministry of Defense declares the destruction of several HIMARS, the Americans assure that there are no losses. Someone is clearly wishful thinking. According to our military officers, nothing bothers our troops more than these systems. And in total, they have been delivered so far, either 6, or 12 units, but they promise 20. For a front with a length of more than 1000 km, this is a meager amount, but so much noise. But [our] experience teaches that it is better to overestimate than to underestimate. There is no doubt that there is a real hunt for them and there will be a result.

However, a natural question arises, what will happen if there are hundreds of such systems against us, and not only these, but also others in all branches of the armed forces and types of the enemy's armed forces, with whom we intend to fight?

Military intelligence knows the answer and therefore looks with regret at different authors of catch phrases [these are RU propaganda slogans] such as "we can repeat" [what we did in WW2], "to Berlin" and "having no analogues in the world" [usual RU wounder weapons slogan]. And [RU intelligence] recommends to study the probable opponent more carefully.

[UPDATE] The great irony here is that before war RU Nats boasted they would demolish all NATO infrastructure in the rear using RU missiles that have no analogues in the world.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Grigb

[cyrano01]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 

The Russians packing guns into a small area and blasting their way 100m a day is not an achievement, it is a devolution of their doctrine and likely a forced one at that.  Everyone recall the advances they did in Feb-Mar, we are talking 100km+ in a few weeks - that was the last and only time the RA has fought like it is supposed to since then they have been doing WW1 style, which has gained them very little.  In fact I am not even sure Pisky qualifies as an end to the operational pause.

 

Their operational art does seem to have regressed to that of 1915/16 and with rates of advance that make Haig look like Guderian.

 

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I think we brought it up before but can you imagine Dunkirk today?  

Almost impossible, 24 hour rolling media coverage of a retreat like that would be un-survivable for a Western government, doubly so given the far lower degree of trust in politicians amongst the general polity today.  That said we shouldn't lose sight of how close the UK came to throwing in the towel on May 1940, it would only have needed Halifax to become PM rather than Churchill I suspect.

[JonS]

6 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Yeah, you're right. Let them get away with terror, plan their next attrocity in peace and wait until they come to you again.

Nice work. You've managed to combine a straw man with a false dilemma. Although a common double fallacy, this one is well executed. The judges have scored you a 3.5

[Grigb]

Time to talk about what has happened in Pisky aka Pisky crisis. This is my personal opinion of what has happened there in the last few days.

General crisis of UKR Artillery

As we all know UKR artillery suffers from lack of soviet caliber ammo and tubes. However, it appears the problem has become worse recently (end of July), and RU started to notice it in different parts of the front. The situation could be especially hard at Donetsk direction due to alleged RU strikes of UKR warehouses a s@Haiduk told us. 

As I understand UKR Command tries to mitigate it by creating NATO caliber arty groups (Girkin talked about them few times). There are not a lot of them (maybe even 1). When this group is present UKR have either relative parity with RU offensive arty group or some superiority over RU defensive arty group.

Probably this is the reason we do not see serious UKR pushes and collapses of RU defenses so far. UKR arty group can suppress RU local defending arty, but it cannot CB large amount of arty RU can concentrate in one place. So, if there is major UKR push RU concentrate arty there and effectively stops everything.

Cause of the crisis in Pisky.

According to RU discussions UKR Command removed the arty group from Pisky around week ago. As I see it was calculated risk - they do not have enough groups, and this is supposedly the most heavily fortified portion of front (I have not seen fortifications/defense myself, cannot comment). RU banged their head at UKR defense here like 6 days and still did not penetrate it completely.

RU on other hand had a real crisis - the progress was negligible. Despite local penetration somewhere else they were stalled by critical Avdiyvka defenses and the only way to deal with them is to encircle Avdiyvka through Pisky and Vodiane (North of Pisky). The inaccurate and inflexible but heavy RU artillery hammer was dropping on Pisky.

As per previous experience UKR defenses could withstand significant RU battering and continue to fight. However, for this offensive RU had little know but very influential trump card - more widely available drone teams prepared by RU volunteer groups in previous months. They started to feed observation videos directly to arty observers allowing RU arty to discover and hammer even pinpoint UKR targets. The RU hammer became significantly more accurate (judging by RU standarts). 

Initial disposition

Let's look at what we know about initial disposition. 

Just to get a feel here is an old RU video of shootouts at Volvo center and Pisky. RU forward position with sniper and spotter looks like from trench in front of Volvo center and they shoot toward Cowshed.

And here is photo of Volvo-center from RU Drone operator/propagandists Tatarsky (who fought there in 2014-2015 and now again) on 3 of August.

 

And here is link to the video of him at Cowshed.

https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/15302

He says nothing important, just celebrating that the best Warrior Nation in the World managed to walk less than 700 meters in 8 years, 5 months and 6 days of new offensive against pig Untermensch. 

And this is the biggest issue of RU - despite all efforts RU could not capture and clear forward UKR position until the Crisis happened on 2 of August.

Pisky Crisis 1-2 August

For several days RU kept drones above Pisky and relentlessly hammered any movement on UKR positions. For the feel here is the sample video of that work. UKR Squad commander Sergey Gnezdilov commented that Pisky was receiving 6500 rounds per day from RU. UKR arty fire was weak. No CB. And only 120mm and 82mm tried to answer occasionally.  The only local UKR command could do was to hold the line patching it with fresh reinforcements.

On the 1-Aug while artillery kept UKR defenders in cover first RU assault groups managed to reach the outskirts of Pisky from the Airport direction. They overran a small UKR outpost taking half-dozen of UKR POW. Yet, it seems RU assault group was weak and preferred not to push forward into small arms fight with UKR defenders relying instead on artillery fire.  UKR defenders on other hand became too weak to dislodge it. UKR defense started to crack but still was holding.

Until 2-Aug. On 2-Aug probably after RU arty caught fresh UKR reinforcement and from 15 hloptcev 14 became casualties, morale cracked and UKR command started to lose control over forward positions.

We do not know what happened there (push from RU assault groups or too eager withdrawal). What we do know though is that UKR forces pulled back from Cowshed and the eastern part toward western part. RU immediately followed UKR on both sides of ponds.

However even this modest effort was too much for RU forces. Seems to be exhausted and weak after the previous 5 months fighting RU decided not to pursue UKR into UKR rear defensive zone and to dig in at the area reached by nightfall - Dam.  

The sudden loss of control caused Sergey Gnezdilov to write an emotional Facebook post describing difficult situation and heavy losses. Shock waves amplified by UKR volunteers reposts reach both UKR public and RU Nats. Word of imminent UKR defense collapse and RU breakthrough caused quite a stir everywhere. Yet, there was neither UKR collapse no RU breakthrough. 

Quiet Endgame 3-Aug

Unlike stormy UKR social networks situation in Pisky was relatively calm. RU was probing and hitting anything suspicious very hard at western part.  UKR side on other hand seems decided to withdraw toward Donetsk Ring Road and Bridge Republic positions. Also, according to Sergey Gnezdilov vague new post UKR command decided to return the arty group and RU became uninterested in further major pushes. 

It was all back to the old arty Ping Pong game. 

P.S. 4-Aug

According to latest RU Nats posts they moved on from Pisky toward new and exciting topics - China-US scandal, RU shelling Donetsks and murdering civilians while pretending UKR did it, and Glorious advance RU troops are making in the whole Donbass area. Fighting in Pisky became just another topic hinting that RU either took a pause or they are returning back to crawling pace.

We will know when the time comes.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Grigb

[Calamine Waffles]

Would be nice if Europe would just send 120 mm mortars en masse. I believe French 120 mm mortar ammunition can be fired from the Soviet/Russian types?

[paxromana]

19 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Would be nice if Europe would just send 120 mm mortars en masse. I believe French 120 mm mortar ammunition can be fired from the Soviet/Russian types?

Almost certainly, Russian WW2 120mm (and, from memory, even their 82 mm ones) were based on French Brandt designs - so I presume the current generation would be backwards compatible, ammo wise (unlike their artillery!)

[keas66]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Nice work. You've managed to combine a straw man with a false dilemma. Although a common double fallacy, this one is well executed. The judges have scored you a 3.5

Well I'm not sure about your original statement either ?  - What do you expect the US to do  with  Identified Terrorists who have caused harm to the US .  Just  say its all cool Dude - Live and let Live ? .  As a counter terrorist action  - it lets others know that  eventually the US will catch up with you . That seems like enough of a threat to dissuade a certain % of Terrorists from taking part in actions - so ....Counter-terrorism .

[Taranis]

25 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Would be nice if Europe would just send 120 mm mortars en masse. I believe French 120 mm mortar ammunition can be fired from the Soviet/Russian types?

French 120mm RTF-1 mortars use PR-14 shells (more commonly known as OE-120-F1 in the French army). They have the characteristic of having a detachable tubular tailboom at the rear when the shell leaves the mortar. I don't know though if the Russians can have the ability to shoot them. I still have a doubt because the shell is pre-rifled and the Russian mortar would therefore have to have exactly the same mortar rifling.

[Grigb]

RU Nats claiming that according to UKR some UKR units retreated somewhere at Bakhmut and Avdiyvka areas. But no RU reports of them capturing anything. 

 

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Well I'm not sure about your original statement either ?  - What do you expect the US to do  with  Identified Terrorists who have caused harm to the US .  Just  say its all cool Dude - Live and let Live ? .  As a counter terrorist action  - it lets others know that  eventually the US will catch up with you . That seems like enough of a threat to dissuade a certain % of Terrorists from taking part in actions - so ....Counter-terrorism .

Maybe folks should not just jump down Aragorn's throat for every one sentence post he makes.  All he said was that he believed it was better to search out and destroy those that were planning attacks.  Can disagree w/o disparaging Aragorn.

(coming from someone who has gotten in lots of trouble here on the forum for disparaging certain public figures)

[Battlefront.com]

Grigb, I think you are correct to not do morning maps.  By the time most of the forum members read it the information is either dated (i.e. something dramatic happened) or it isn't different by the end of the day (i.e. failed attacks, minor seizure of territory, etc.).  An end of day summary captures all of that very nicely.

Your quoting of the RU Nat relaying information from the Airborne officer in Kherson:

Quote

There are not enough tanks in the airborne forces. In order to suppress the firing point, more than a day passes from the request of the brigade headquarters to the allocation of the tank. And they give tanks for a very limited time.

This gets me wondering if rationing of tanks is something seen in other areas.  As you pointed out, Russians are having a great deal of difficulty in Kharkiv area.  I just posted a video where the UKR TD company commander noted that there is ONE tank shelling them and it uses up all its ammo, then goes away until the next day. 

I'm wondering if this tank in Kharkiv was assigned to the sector for a limited time, just like the VDV officer mentioned, and so the crew is given the task "you are to shell positions here for 4 days with one full allotment of ammo per day."  This would explain why the tank seems to be disinterested in engaging the Ukrainians and very interested in blowing off all of its ammo as quickly as possible.

What a HORRIBLE way to fight a war.  There's no coordination of purpose (well, other than to avoid engaging Ukrainians in real combat), there's no "ownership" of actions by the crew, there's no real sense of support by the infantry holding the line, etc.  It's just bad, bad, bad, bad, bad all the way through and through. 

Whatever the case might be, it's pretty clear that on some sectors the Russian forces at the front are already behaving as if this is the same situation as the last 8 years.  Harassing fire with almost no real interest or concern about how effective it is.  The primary goal seems to be to keep Ukrainian forces from advancing out of their trenches.  Russians are, in effect, afraid of real combat with Ukrainian forces.  Even lightly armed TD units.  That's telling.

Steve

[akd]

On 8/2/2022 at 1:23 PM, akd said:

Maj. Alexander Yusupov, howitzer battery commander, unknown unit based in Simferopol (maybe 126th Coastal Defense Brigade?)

@sburke @Kinophile

Yusupov was commander of the Howitzer Artillery Battalion in the 126th Guards Coastal Defense Brigade.

 

Edited August 4, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Time to talk about what has happened in Pisky aka Pisky crisis. This is my personal opinion of what has happened there in the last few days.

Thanks for stitching that all together.  It sounds very logical and fits both the few facts we have from Pisky as well as how fighting plays out in other situations.  The basic story is much the same... Russians hammer a place with artillery, Ukraine is obligated to withdraw, weak Russian infantry forces advance until they meet some sort of resistance (small arms, tank fire, artillery, doesn't really seem to matter), Russian forces stop and dig in, Ukraine regroups.

I think your analysis of why Pisky "broke" now, after all this time, is spot on.  Ukraine's shortage of artillery combined with Russians desperate for SOME sort of advance produces conditions for the sort of battle I described above.

The shortage of Western artillery on the Ukraine side is very troubling for the West.  No nation, not even the US, planned for the possibility that it would have to rearm a significant sized military force on short notice.  They thought that either their own forces would be involved or that they'd have years to produce the necessary weaponry.  I'm not hyper critical of this lack of planning as nations can never plan for all eventualities and this situation is rather unique.  That said, with a looming Russian civil war a distinct possibility, the West might find themselves in a similar situation in the near future.  Something has to be done to not only deal with the situation we have now, but for those possibilities too.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Put a half dozen collective socks into the squabbling, OK?  Serves absolutely no purpose at all other than annoying me.  And if that is the intention, I have a solution on standby

Steve

[Butschi]

14 hours ago, The_Capt said:

And I am not saying that people are not dying in Pisky or that it isn’t an intense fight.  What I am saying is that until the RA can actually demonstrate operational success and/or breakthrough these are intense tactical actions i.e. localized.  Now even if the RA could string a half dozen of these in rapid succession we could maybe take it as an indication of a shift, but another village ground down in slow time is just that.  Even if the UA takes heavy losses, they have had months to mobilize and integrate western equipment and support, while Russia continues to wear out their already tattered force.

The Russians packing guns into a small area and blasting their way 100m a day is not an achievement, it is a devolution of their doctrine and likely a forced one at that.  Everyone recall the advances they did in Feb-Mar, we are talking 100km+ in a few weeks - that was the last and only time the RA has fought like it is supposed to since then they have been doing WW1 style, which has gained them very little.  In fact I am not even sure Pisky qualifies as an end to the operational pause.

Regardless, I am not saying the UA is invincible, or the RA is doomed (although, I have my suspicions).  I am saying - especially to any lurkers out there who are worried - we need to stick to the facts here and base assessments on them.

I think we brought it up before but can you imagine Dunkirk today?  

Well, to be fair, it is not so unlikely that UK would have made peace had they not managed to ferry so many men over. And the Allies did consider retreating from continental Europe in case the German offensive in the Ardennes was successful.

But I agree, we need to stick to the facts. Falling for Russian propaganda is just as bad as reinforcing our set opinions in our own little echo chamber.

[Grigb]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This gets me wondering if rationing of tanks is something seen in other areas.  As you pointed out, Russians are having a great deal of difficulty in Kharkiv area.  I just posted a video where the UKR TD company commander noted that there is ONE tank shelling them and it uses up all its ammo, then goes away until the next day. 

Could be - I already posted shocked RU Nat writing that it is RU regulars who use venerable T-62M tanks. And this guy from Kherson says wear and tear is very serious. So, together with actual losses we need to add suspected losses through wear and tear. That's a lot given they have to keep reserve for possible NATO invasion. 

 

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This gets me wondering if rationing of tanks is something seen in other areas.  As you pointed out, Russians are having a great deal of difficulty in Kharkiv area.  I just posted a video where the UKR TD company commander noted that there is ONE tank shelling them and it uses up all its ammo, then goes away until the next day. 

I'm wondering if this tank in Kharkiv was assigned to the sector for a limited time, just like the VDV officer mentioned, and so the crew is given the task "you are to shell positions here for 4 days with one full allotment of ammo per day."  This would explain why the tank seems to be disinterested in engaging the Ukrainians and very interested in blowing off all of its ammo as quickly as possible.

What a HORRIBLE way to fight a war.  There's no coordination of purpose (well, other than to avoid engaging Ukrainians in real combat), there's no "ownership" of actions by the crew, there's no real sense of support by the infantry holding the line, etc.  It's just bad, bad, bad, bad, bad all the way through and through. 

Whatever the case might be, it's pretty clear that on some sectors the Russian forces at the front are already behaving as if this is the same situation as the last 8 years.  Harassing fire with almost no real interest or concern about how effective it is.  The primary goal seems to be to keep Ukrainian forces from advancing out of their trenches.  Russians are, in effect, afraid of real combat with Ukrainian forces.  Even lightly armed TD units.  That's telling.

Steve

And the only sort of major offence they are doing where their most motivated force is.

 

[danfrodo]

Putin sentences Britney Griner to 10 years.  This is so N Korea.  Kidnapping an american citizen who came to his s-hole country by invitation.  Damn him.

 

[OldSarge]

12 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Could be - I already posted shocked RU Nat writing that it is RU regulars who use venerable T-62M tanks. And this guy from Kherson says wear and tear is very serious. So, together with actual losses we need to add suspected losses through wear and tear. That's a lot given they have to keep reserve for possible NATO invasion.

So there are operational losses to be considered? Due to lack of spare parts? Or maintenance crews and adequate facilities? Or a mix of all of the above?

It isn't too surprising, these machines likely have a lot of tough usage hours on them.  I would expect some priority being given to keeping them running and fully functional though. If that isn't the case it is fairly telling.

[Battlefront.com]

As much as we knock the mainstream media for it's manic-depressive reporting style, on a fairly regular basis there is good reporting between the bouts of hyped optimism and defeatism.  Sometimes days or weeks after we've had the discussion, but better late than never

With that in mind, there was a good article from NY Times today. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/04/us/politics/russia-weapons-ukraine.html

It's behind a paywall, so here's a couple of tidbits:

Quote

Now, as the fighting enters its sixth month, critical manpower and equipment problems could again slow Russian operations and give Ukraine’s counteroffensive a better chance to succeed, U.S. and European officials said.

The signs of Russia’s challenges abound: artillery shells missing their targets, intercepts of Russian soldiers complaining they have been given old tanks and a sharply rising death and injury toll in its military ranks.

 

But unlike earlier in the war, it could become harder for Russia to reset its strategy and recover, at least in the short term.

This is a good summary of where the war REALLY is at this point.  Russia is having a harder and harder time keeping the war going and there's no signs it has a way to rectify that any time soon.  Even mobilization is not likely to do it.

Quote

The Russian shortfalls have created an opportunity for the Ukrainian army, driving their decision to launch a counteroffensive, said senior U.S. military officials and American lawmakers who have visited Ukraine recently. More Ukrainian offenses, most likely in the south, are likely in the coming weeks, these officials said.

Yup

Quote

American and Western intelligence assessments lend credence to the idea that the next weeks or months will be critical for Ukraine. Even if Russian forces cannot be pushed back significantly, a strong counteroffensive could increase confidence among Ukraine’s allies.

American and British officials said Ukrainian officials have said they understand they have a limited amount of time to take advantage of Russia’s apparent weakness.

Some sort of operational level, coordinated counter attack really is the biggest thing we've had to wait for since Russia prepared for the Easter offensive and before that the initial invasion.  When Ukraine launches such an attack (not if) I do expect it to succeed.  Therefore, in my mind, the thing I'm looking for is how well it succeeds.  Is it going to collapse Russia's ability and/or will to keep fighting a hopeless war or is it going to be limited to handing Russia a humiliating battlefield defeat?  Obviously I don't know, but I don't think a Kherson offensive on its own is going to collapse the Russian's ability to keep the war going.  I think it will take a little more than that.

Steve

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

So there are operational losses to be considered? Due to lack of spare parts? Or maintenance crews and adequate facilities? Or a mix of all of the above?

It isn't too surprising, these machines likely have a lot of tough usage hours on them.  I would expect some priority being given to keeping them running and fully functional though. If that isn't the case it is fairly telling.

On a +600km front, there's bound to be shortages of arty, tanks, etc, in many spots on the front.  The question comes down to how much of this is due to choice.  I'd thin out where I could to put mass in other places and to build up reserves.  That's a different case from every machine and man is already at the front.  For Ukraine, I hope it's somewhat more by choice than for Russia

(somewhat redundant to what Steve just said, he posted while I was just finishing this)

Edited August 4, 2022 by danfrodo
addition

[womble]

21 minutes ago, Grigb said:

given they have to keep reserve for possible NATO invasion. 

Do they actually? I mean, their whole house of cards rests one corner on the stone of "Evil Imperialist Western hordes will sweep across the border and burn the whole USSR Rodina, raping and pillaging on the way," (because what evils Russia says others will do, Russia's already done), but their military was a mirage in the first place, so they only need to maintain the illusion of having a conventional force capable of fighting an aggressive NATO, since that would maintain the status quo of an ersatz defense against an imaginary threat.

So any real assets they had committed to defense against NATO can readily be redeployed into Ukraine (if they haven't already been).

[paxromana]

14 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

So there are operational losses to be considered? Due to lack of spare parts? Or maintenance crews and adequate facilities? Or a mix of all of the above?

It isn't too surprising, these machines likely have a lot of tough usage hours on them.  I would expect some priority being given to keeping them running and fully functional though. If that isn't the case it is fairly telling.

ISTR that T-62 ands T-72 (and probably T-64) engines were good for 250 running hours before they needed to be torn down and basically rebuilt -- and then they were good for another 250 running hours after which they were scrap.

Sounds like a lot - even at only a couple of hours a day for 160+ days those engines are likely stuffed - and I bet $$$ that the Russians simply do not have the technical crews needed to rebuild substantial numbers. A mobility kill due to engine problems is as good as an actual kill ...

I strongly suspect that the engines in their wheeled and tracked APCs aren't any better ... 

[Butschi]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

When Ukraine launches such an attack (not if) I do expect it to succeed. 

What makes you so confident? I mean, so far Ukraine has shown better judgement than Russia about what they are able to pull off but on the other hand they have yet to demonstrate their ability to conduct any operational level counteroffensive.