How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another good article in mainstream media.  This one is an OpEd piece by a think tank guy.  No paywall:

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3587600-putin-cant-control-his-ukraine-cataclysm-and-the-us-must-get-ready/

I want to emphasize that I just found this article.  I say that because one could look at my last few posts and think I copied and pasted out of this guy's OpEd piece   See this bit with my bolding at the top:

This was, basically, my response to Butschi.   However, the author thinks that Kherson will be too costly for Ukraine in the short term and it should instead shoot for driving down from Zaporizhzhia.  He makes some very good arguments and, honestly, I've been back and forth on this for months.  The logic of driving to the Sea of Azov makes a lot of sense and it effectively ends the Kherson occupation in the process.  However, I do not think Ukraine has the manpower to pull it off.  At least not yet.  So I'm thinking clean up Kherson (I think it won't be as tough a fight as the author does) and then redirect those forces to Zaporizhzhia to do that next.

Steve

Fascinating stuff. Fingers crossed this guy is correct and we'll see the Russians go down in the second half of this year. Like a free fall with the sound of the crash heard all over the world.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Haiduk]

UKR ambush on two jeeps with allegedly enemy command staff, which drove from HQ.

It's claimed enemy losses are 6 of command staff and 5 soldiers 

Small probability, but maybe we can see here a moment of elimitation of DPR "colonel" Olha Kachura (callsign Korsa), deputy of Grad MLRS battalion commander of 3rd MRB of DPR. DPR sources claimed her "Niva" jeep was hit with ATGM or blew up on the mine near Novobakhmutivka (10 km NE from Avdiivka). 

 

Edited August 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[womble]

Apologies if dragging this out isn't sufficiently on-topic; I'm just thinking that the psyops/infowar front is an important part of the conflict.

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think it boils down to the reporters (and, sadly, some experts) not understanding cumulative effects of losses from combat and time.  Not just here, but with pretty much any conflict in history.

It seems way past that, though. You can almost excuse everyone for "victory fever" on behalf of the Third Reich in the early part of WW2, but with this one, it's as if even drastic setbacks that obviously stemmed from serious losses are irrelevant, whereas expensive, tiny gains are "pivotal". It's like the "press" (or at least some of it) just swallow Lavrov's newest, pared-back declared war objectives (ignoring what the Russians said only weeks ago), and adjust their "war progress" assessments accordingly. Is it just that the "endless resources" or Russia automatically make any setback temporary (even if the response to the setback is trivial gains for disproportionate losses)? 

I guess it's a question that may not have an answer we can get at; the motivations and thought process of the newshounds are theirs to own, in the end.

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR ambush on two jeeps with allegedly enemy command staff, which drove from HQ.

It's claimed enemy losses are 6 of command staff and 5 soldiers 

Small probability, but maybe we can see here a moment of elimitation of DPR "colonel" Olha Kachura (callsign Korsa), deputy of Grad MLRS battalion commander of 3rd MRB of DPR. DPR sources claimed her "Niva" jeep was hit with ATGM or blew up on the mine near Novobakhmutivka (10 km NE from Avdiivka). 

 

This needs to be called "Private Pavel Panics", followed by something unprintable about Colonel Kachura.

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

some more special deliveries to Ukraine

Interesting, that theese four Su-25 (among them Su-25UB combat trainer) were sold by Ukraine to N.Macedonia in 2001, during clashes with Albanian separatists. Theese aircraft and several Mi-24 became game changers - with their support Macedonian forces could quickly supress insurgents bases in mountain areas, where ground forces can't reach because fierce resistance. Also there were rumors, that pilots of theese aircraft were retired Ukrianians and Belarusians. But already in 2003-2004 theese Su-25 were decomissioned, because small Balkanian country couldn't afford itself to maintain combat jets. They tried to sold it, but couldn't, probably because bad technical conditions

Edited August 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[Cederic]

30 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This needs to be called "Private Pavel Panics", followed by something unprintable about Colonel Kachura.

The Daily Mail printed it. Of course.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11080531/Olga-Kursa-Kachura-death-Missile-strike-kills-Russias-senior-female-officer.html

 

[Haiduk]

Two pairs of UKR Su-25 in Kharkiv oblast

 

[akd]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

UKR ambush on two jeeps with allegedly enemy command staff, which drove from HQ.

It's claimed enemy losses are 6 of command staff and 5 soldiers 

Small probability, but maybe we can see here a moment of elimitation of DPR "colonel" Olha Kachura (callsign Korsa), deputy of Grad MLRS battalion commander of 3rd MRB of DPR. DPR sources claimed her "Niva" jeep was hit with ATGM or blew up on the mine near Novobakhmutivka (10 km NE from Avdiivka). 

 

This looks like a “bounding” smart mine, probably Russian PTKM-1R:

But best part is the white jeep rolling at high speed without even being hit.   You can rest assured no one was wearing a seat belt.

Edited August 4, 2022 by akd

[Haiduk]

A pair of UKR Su-25 on Donbas

 

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another good article in mainstream media.  This one is an OpEd piece by a think tank guy.  No paywall:

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3587600-putin-cant-control-his-ukraine-cataclysm-and-the-us-must-get-ready/

I want to emphasize that I just found this article.  I say that because one could look at my last few posts and think I copied and pasted out of this guy's OpEd piece   See this bit with my bolding at the top:

This was, basically, my response to Butschi.   However, the author thinks that Kherson will be too costly for Ukraine in the short term and it should instead shoot for driving down from Zaporizhzhia.  He makes some very good arguments and, honestly, I've been back and forth on this for months.  The logic of driving to the Sea of Azov makes a lot of sense and it effectively ends the Kherson occupation in the process.  However, I do not think Ukraine has the manpower to pull it off.  At least not yet.  So I'm thinking clean up Kherson (I think it won't be as tough a fight as the author does) and then redirect those forces to Zaporizhzhia to do that next.

Steve

A tempting concept, this drive to the Azov shore, isn’t it?

I was pondering a different idea lately. Given that achieving an operational surprise is rather impossible in the UA environment , perhaps UA could achieve a local superiority openly, taking advantage of the short lines of communication it enjoys? The little info we have about UA reserve corp suggests it is mostly stationed around Zaporizhya and Krivy Rih. If UA was to shift these forces for an offensive east of Kharkiv, it has to move them maybe 200km to the starting positions. RU reserves OTOH would have to cover an ungodly distance from Kherson through Crimea all the way arund Donbas to Vovchansk . And if UA was to get ATACMS and strike Crimea bridge…

For even more fun, make this drive to Oskil a feint, engage considerable forces at this direction only untill RU will be in the middle of moving reserves there, and then switch back to Kherson, again taking advantage of short LOCs. Make the Russians drive around inefficiently, stretching their already horrible logistics while you bid your time before really commiting to any particular direction.

Does it make sense in your opinion?

 

[Haiduk]

12 HIMARSes reportedly. Nova Kakhovka and Chornobaivka 6 hours ago.

This morning also General Staff claimed UKR forces hit HQ of 22nd Army Corps near Kherson coastal Black Sea troops)

 

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

12 HIMARSes reportedly. Nova Kakhovka and Chornobaivka 6 hours ago.

This morning also General Staff claimed UKR forces hit HQ of 22nd Army Corps near Kherson coastal Black Sea troops)

 

So we're seeing more & more HIMARS being used in the daytime.  I wonder what that says about fear of RU counter measures.

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

UKR ambush on two jeeps with allegedly enemy command staff, which drove from HQ.

It's claimed enemy losses are 6 of command staff and 5 soldiers 

Small probability, but maybe we can see here a moment of elimitation of DPR "colonel" Olha Kachura (callsign Korsa), deputy of Grad MLRS battalion commander of 3rd MRB of DPR. DPR sources claimed her "Niva" jeep was hit with ATGM or blew up on the mine near Novobakhmutivka (10 km NE from Avdiivka). 

 

Splendid.

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So we're seeing more & more HIMARS being used in the daytime.  I wonder what that says about fear of RU counter measures.

It coincides with M270 appearing in Ukraine, does’t it?

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, womble said:

Apologies if dragging this out isn't sufficiently on-topic; I'm just thinking that the psyops/infowar front is an important part of the conflict.

It seems way past that, though. You can almost excuse everyone for "victory fever" on behalf of the Third Reich in the early part of WW2, but with this one, it's as if even drastic setbacks that obviously stemmed from serious losses are irrelevant, whereas expensive, tiny gains are "pivotal". It's like the "press" (or at least some of it) just swallow Lavrov's newest, pared-back declared war objectives (ignoring what the Russians said only weeks ago), and adjust their "war progress" assessments accordingly. Is it just that the "endless resources" or Russia automatically make any setback temporary (even if the response to the setback is trivial gains for disproportionate losses)? 

I guess it's a question that may not have an answer we can get at; the motivations and thought process of the newshounds are theirs to own, in the end.

Without evidence of Ukrainian advances, a stalemate is pretty bad for Ukraine. Note, if we look at the long picture, it is a graph where expectations of Ukraine are rising and Ukraine is meeting it head on. Before the invasion, resistance movement was the expectation, then a few weeks Ukraine holds out, then a few months, now, if Russia keeps moving forward, thats a victory, soon, as Ukraine begins advancing, it will become, can Russia stalemate, when Kherson falls, can Russia hold, etc, etc. While it is important for Ukraine to manage the info space, I'm seeing overall positive trends, all fueled by Ukraine's ability and strength to fight back, and seeing as we are really focused on the conflict, it may seem like nothing is changing, in a span of 6 months, Russia was supposed to have conquered all of Eastern Europe, now Ukraine may be able to take Russia head on. With hope, by the end of the year, instead of Russia about to conquer all of Ukraine, it will be a narrative, how long before Ukraine kicks out the Russian army. 

[Haiduk]

UKR General Staff cautiosly began to issue information about UKR successes on Izium direction. Officially claimed libaration of Dmytrivka and Mazainvka. In twitter write Dmytrivka really was liberated about week ago, Mazanivka - about two days ago. Liberated area marked by blue on the map below. Also General Staff directly didn't say this, but according to theur report about clashes and probes in area of Brazhivka - Sulyhivka - Dovhen'ke - Pasika, theese villages are now contested area, so Bohorodychne akready under UKR control - awaiting official confiormation.

More recently, about two weeks ago, General Staff claimed Dibrivne was liberated, here the video from 93rd mech.brigade from there. In short, soldier says there was about two reinforced companies of enemy there. UKR troops just choked their supply routes and they were forced to withdraw. He says Russian remained huige number of anti-personnel mines and often lay its around their abandoned vehicles. He also shows two Russian BMP-3, destroyed as far as in times of Russian was capturing Dibrivne.

Also by RUMINT UKR arty pushed off Russians from Sviatohirsk, so UKR troopers raised the flag over giaint Artem monument on UKR-controlled bank of Siverskyi Donets near Tetianivka oppese to Sviatohirsk.

Russians, though activated near Balakliya and tried to advance on Husarivka, but were repelled. Husarivka was liberated 27-29th of March, Russian BTG was defeated there.  

Edited August 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[asurob]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

A pair of UKR Su-25 on Donbas

 

The fact that the Ukrainian Air Force is still flying 5 months into this war shows exactly how big of a failure Putin's imperial conquest has been.  Russia will never be respected for its military prowess in the world...ever. 

[Beleg85]

We need this grandpa modelled as separate unit in CMBS:

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR General Staff cautiosly began to issue information about UKR successes on Izium direction. Officially claimed libaration of Dmytrivka and Mazainvka. In twitter write Dmytrivka really was liberated about week ago, Mazanivka - about two days ago. Liberated area marked by blue on the map below. Also General Staff directly didn't say this, but according to theur report about clashes and probes in area of Brazhivka - Sulyhivka - Dovhen'ke - Pasika, theese villages are now contested area, so Bohorodychne akready under UKR control - awaiting official confiormation.

More recently, about two weeks ago, General Staff claimed Dibrivne was liberated, here the video from 93rd mech.brigade from there. In short, soldier says there was about two reinforced companies of enemy there. UKR troops just choked their supply routes and they were forced to withdrew. He says Russian remained huige number of anti-personnel mines and often lay its around their abandoned vehicles. He also shows two Russian BMP-3, destroyed as far as in times of Russian was capturing Dibrivne.

Excellent news. I wondered when Ukriane will start to gain ground in Izium axis. It is ishappening, now slowly, but sonner or later Russians may face serious problems there.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

We need this grandpa modelled as separate unit in CMBS:

 

Heroical dad, but the same attempt in Borodianka turned out as tragedy - when Russian column moved on the road, several guys from local territorial defense, threw Molotov coctails on Russian vehicles from 9-storey building. Russians spottetd them and called aviation. Jets bombed the house and ruined half of it, burried many civilians. 

The same tragedy happened in Kherson. 67 fighters of local Territorial Defense, being mostly unarmed and having only molotovs, decided to ambush Russian VDV column in the park. They wanted suddenly to rush on them from the side and to set fire Russian light armor or trucks. But traitors warned Russians about ambush in the park, so when they drove along the road they just rained fire of 7.62, 12.7, 30 mm on TD guys. They tried to hide behind the trees, but large-caliber bullets were killing them anywhere. All 67 have lost, part of them wern't identified - bullets and shells teared off their bodies.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

Map time! Main intrigue of the day - nope, Pisky is not taken yet. 

 

Edited August 4, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

Pisky defenders are still contesting it.

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Heroical dad, but the same attempt in Borodianka turned out as tragedy - when Russian column moved on the road, several guys from local territorial defense, threw Molotov coctails on Russian vehicles from 9-storey building. Russians spottetd them and called aviation. Jets bombed the house and ruined half of it, burried many civilians. 

Total resistance is much nicer as „fleet in being” than when actually applied. One thing this war teaches us is that in case of peer on peer conflict against somebody like RU, complete evacuation of the civilian population should be mandatory if possible. 

[DesertFox]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR ambush on two jeeps with allegedly enemy command staff, which drove from HQ.

It's claimed enemy losses are 6 of command staff and 5 soldiers 

Small probability, but maybe we can see here a moment of elimitation of DPR "colonel" Olha Kachura (callsign Korsa), deputy of Grad MLRS battalion commander of 3rd MRB of DPR. DPR sources claimed her "Niva" jeep was hit with ATGM or blew up on the mine near Novobakhmutivka (10 km NE from Avdiivka). 

 

Nice one! Burn them all!

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

So we're seeing more & more HIMARS being used in the daytime.  I wonder what that says about fear of RU counter measures.

Yep. It is a good sign!

[Beleg85]

19 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The same tragedy happened in Kherson. 67 fightersd of local Territorial Defense, being mostly unarmed and having only molotovs, decided to ambush Russian VDV column in the park. But traitors warned Russians about ambush in the park, so when they drove along the road they just rained fire of 7.62, 12.7, 30 mm on TD guys. They tried to hide behind the trees, but large-caliber bullets were killing them anywhere. All 67 have lost, part of them wern't identified - bullets and shells teared off their bodies.

Jesus. Early in war I saw videos of single persons throwing molotovs in not very "wise" ways, but such amount of people killed in one skirmish is downright terrifying. Poor guys. Reminds me os similar desparate measures from Warsaw Uprising, when partisans lacked weapons so much they make "human chains" behind barricades to have only bravest 3-4 guys constantly throwing bottles with liquid at enemies. Those guys at the front were almost universally KIA/WIA.

Ukrainains have balls even when they lacks weapons or skills, need to admitt.

Short material showing training on SPG-9, with some tactical information aabout organization of their units. This journo crew with female reporter from Hromadske makes nice, 10+ mins dispatches from frontlines, with ENG subs available. Worth to follow:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VeJ-A9d2Ys

 

Edited August 4, 2022 by Beleg85