How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

I realize there are reasons for NATO not to enter this war and destroy the Russian army in a weekend. But the the thought of the Russian Nats tears when literally not a single piece of equipment made it back over the border into Russia almost justifies taking the risk. And it really would be useful for even the nuttiest of them to Understand that not only is there army not in the major leagues, it is the last place team in single A. For our European friends that is the equivalent of being the worst "professional" team in Hungary or Serbia.

We can only hope that Putin makes some sort of stupid mistake by provoking NATO into action, like blowing up a ammo dump in Eastern Europe or shooting down a NATO plane over Poland or Hungary. That would justify a no fly zone enforced by NATO over Ukraine and lots of other moves that will help to finish off the Russians. The ludicrous reaction of the Chinese towards Taiwan following the visit of an US politician shows once more that the West is far too cautious, which only encourages rogue states like Russia and China.

Edited August 5, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

That would justify a no fly zone enforced by NATO

The logic escapes me somehow. Right now Russia imposes a no-fly zone over the Ukraine for NATO planes but NATO can't enforce a no fly zone even with all the UN resolutions on their side. Putin thinks what every country outside NATO thinks. No Action Talk Only.

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

The logic escapes me somehow. Right now Russia imposes a no-fly zone over the Ukraine for NATO planes but NATO can't enforce a no fly zone even with all the UN resolutions on their side. Putin thinks what every country outside NATO thinks. No Action Talk Only.

Well, exactly. And let's remember that Putin has little left in the way of military means to 'punish' the West. He can't blackmail us with oil and gas for much longer and his economy is crumbling. Time for the West to step up the game. At the same time it will be a strong warning to the Chinese that there's a limit to our patience. When they think they can have the f*cking nerve to make use of the situation in the Ukraine, they should be shown that's a huge mistake. Time to show some teeth.

[Huba]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So to summarize, the Russians are going to do one last big push in an area they would have, if they could have for months.  Or a suicidal attempt on the far side of a river while your opponent owns all the ISR and precision deep strike capability?  All the while that logistics have been getting mauled?  Am I missing something?

So the quoted guy ( Arestovych says the same BTW, perhaps he was an inspiration) meant that RU intends to use all the reserves moved from other directions in the alleged offensive. Attack itself would of course be politically motivated, the mere notion of RU losing the initiative being unpalatable to the RU (political) command. 
IMO let's see how this situation develops, somebody's going to make a push at some point, that is a sure thing. If it is RU, so much better for the Ukrainians.

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

There are indications that UKR is moving forces from Donbass and replacing them with second rate troops.

We see:

• Replacement of regulars with mobilized
• RU claiming, they see more and more UKR counter-attacks with infantry mostly (no vehicles) 
• The arty group was removed and unlike Gnezdilov vague claim arty did not return but UKR mortar fire was strengthened.
• There was RU reports UKR removed marine brigade from Donbass
• Khodakovsky just reported UKR recently removed important equipment (EW) as well.

I heard that too, a bit of time ago actually. But only reasonable thing to do with units moved out of Donbas front is to let them rest and refit for a month or so, perhaps even reform/ merge/ disband some units that were mauled the most. If they started doing that  2 weeks ago, these units should be OKish at the beginning of September perhaps.

[SteelRain]

I can't remember who was saying that the Russians should worry about the maintenance of their nuclear forces too. So, unsurprisingly, I present the first evidence that he was right.

*edit: Twitter Link via Nitter as i don't have a Twitter account but still want to explore the high value content of Twitter

https://de.nttr.stream/bad_moskal/status/1555427437944643584#m

This thing looks like it was parked outside since its deployment. Maybe the Russians are masters of engineering and they invented some magic container that looks crappy from the outside but shields the rocket completely, so it stays in perfect condition, but i doubt it. 

 

Edited August 5, 2022 by SteelRain

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian MLRS “Verba” fires towards Russian positions on the front line in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine, Tuesday, August 2, 2022. EVGENIY MALOLETKA / AP"
* A mix of KrAZ-6322 and BM-21 Grad

[Grigb]

8 minutes ago, Huba said:

I heard that too, a bit of time ago actually. But only reasonable thing to do with units moved out of Donbas front is to let them rest and refit for a month or so, perhaps even reform/ merge/ disband some units that were mauled the most. If they started doing that  2 weeks ago, these units should be OKish at the beginning of September perhaps.

But we are not talking about just infantry units rotation. We are talking about arty gone week ago. EW gone a couple of days ago. And somewhere in between these dates tank support gone as well. 

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

But we are not talking about just infantry units rotation. We are talking about arty gone week ago. EW gone a couple of days ago. And somewhere in between these dates tank support gone as well. 

I heard that whole brigades were rotated, that by definition would include their organic artillery as well(which in most cases would be terribly attritted as well). AFAIK this would be the proper way to reinstate combat capability of these formations without loss of integrity.

Edited August 5, 2022 by Huba

[womble]

24 minutes ago, SteelRain said:

I can't remember who was saying that the Russians should worry about the maintenance of their nuclear forces too. So, unsurprisingly, I present the first evidence that he was right.

*edit: Twitter Link via Nitter as i don't have a Twitter account but still want to explore the high value content of Twitter

https://de.nttr.stream/bad_moskal/status/1555427437944643584#m

This thing looks like it was parked outside since its deployment. Maybe the Russians are masters of engineering and they invented some magic container that looks crappy from the outside but shields the rocket completely, so it stays in perfect condition, but i doubt it. 

 

The comments (gTranslated) are suggesting that, given the hatches and the ladders on the side of the cylindrical superstructure, it's a tanker, not a TEL. So if that's true and it's been "working", it might be due a repaint but doesn't necessarily reflect the readiness state of the RU nuclear deterrent.

Though I'm wondering what the camo net skirts are meant to be concealing...  They don't do much to break up the outline of the thing from the sides or above...

 

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

I heard that whole brigades were rotated, that by definition would include their organic artillery as well(which in most cases would be terribly attritted as well). AFAIK this would be the proper way to reinstate combat capability of these formations without loss of integrity.

That's not how soviet educated officers would rotate units during battles. You rotate personal. Equipment stays in place to continue to provide support. Especially EW. 

Even weak mobilized infantry can hold if properly supported. Replacing strong infantry with weak and simultaneously removing support is mistake that could cause UKR battle. That's too dumb for the level of UKR command we see so far. 

[Huba]

Just now, Grigb said:

That's not how soviet educated officers would rotate units during battles. You rotate personal. Equipment stays in place to continue to provide support. Especially EW. 

Even weak mobilized infantry can hold if properly supported. Replacing strong infantry with weak and simultaneously removing support is mistake that could cause UKR battle. That's too dumb for the level of UKR command we see so far. 

But if you intend to shift  forces from say Bakhmut to Kherson, you have to move whole brigades, how else are you going to do it? I'm not talking about giving the guys on the ground a break, this wouldn't help much for formations with 30% losses. You have to rebuild them basically, can't do that while holding the line simultaneously. As for independent units like EW, no idea, perhaps these are needed elsewhere indeed. Also I'm not saying that something big is not being prepared by UA, it certainly is. My point is that between moving units from the line in Donbas, and UA starting something, there could be a significant hiatus needed for reconstituting rotated formations.

[Grigb]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

But if you intend to shift  forces from say Bakhmut to Kherson, you have to move whole brigades, how else are you going to do it?

If you have regular brigade with regular units supported by mobilized units - you move regulars and keep mobilized in place. This way the enemy continues to believe that brigade is still there, and regulars are just in the reserve. And when the time comes, you reassign mobilized to a new HQ. 

That's why probably the movement started as you said weeks ago. UKR probably did it under cover story of rotation. And probably they did want to give troops required rest. But I am looking at RU sources and they started to notice it like a week ago.

What is important though - the equipment is removed at the last possible moment. EW is gone days ago that means if i am right (obviously I could be wrong in my armchair) UKR offensive is imminent. There are rumors about the date 6-Aug.

I am not trying to prove you are wrong. It's just that I have a strong opinion here, so I am insisting on it. Anyway, in a couple of days, we will know. 

[Taranis]

7 minutes ago, Grigb said:

If you have regular brigade with regular units supported by mobilized units - you move regulars and keep mobilized in place. This way the enemy continues to believe that brigade is still there, and regulars are just in the reserve. And when the time comes, you reassign mobilized to a new HQ. 

That's why probably the movement started as you said weeks ago. UKR probably did it under cover story of rotation. And probably they did want to give troops required rest. But I am looking at RU sources and they started to notice it like a week ago.

What is important though - the equipment is removed at the last possible moment. EW is gone days ago that means if i am right (obviously I could be wrong in my armchair) UKR offensive is imminent. There are rumors about the date 6-Aug.

I am not trying to prove you are wrong. It's just that I have a strong opinion here, so I am insisting on it. Anyway, in a couple of days, we will know. 

Interesting. We all agree that this is what we would like to see and all with a UKR success.
Just by curiosity. According to you, what were you waiting for? A grand style offensive with a massive preliminary barrage on the front line, then a concentration of brigades to obtain a break in the line and then an exploitation? Or a continuation of the bombardments on the backs and as soon as a breach is carried out by regular units, a fresh brigade comes to exploit?

[Huba]

32 minutes ago, Grigb said:

If you have regular brigade with regular units supported by mobilized units - you move regulars and keep mobilized in place. This way the enemy continues to believe that brigade is still there, and regulars are just in the reserve. And when the time comes, you reassign mobilized to a new HQ. 

That's why probably the movement started as you said weeks ago. UKR probably did it under cover story of rotation. And probably they did want to give troops required rest. But I am looking at RU sources and they started to notice it like a week ago.

What is important though - the equipment is removed at the last possible moment. EW is gone days ago that means if i am right (obviously I could be wrong in my armchair) UKR offensive is imminent. There are rumors about the date 6-Aug.

I am not trying to prove you are wrong. It's just that I have a strong opinion here, so I am insisting on it. Anyway, in a couple of days, we will know. 

I OTOH have quite weak opinion, just thinking out loud really. There's a new Girkin translation just in, (which you perhaps read previously anyway), and Igor seems to think UA move is imminent too. Fingers crossed for ZSU!

https://wartranslated.com/igor-girkin-ukraine-frontline-update-on-5-august-from-the-russian-side/

[Grigb]

Fresh Girkin assessment but with map. Because you know everything is better with map.

 

[Grigb]

35 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Interesting. We all agree that this is what we would like to see and all with a UKR success.

Personally, until a couple of days ago I did not expect any UKR moves until at least the middle of Aug or better End of Aug. I am the guy who is saying that UKR arty is big trouble. But looking at Pisky and RU description of fighting in all these settlements I got feeling that it is much noise about just a side show. 

But if it is there is a side show there should be somewhere main event. And today Khodakovsky came with news that UKR EW is gone. It is the most pivotal point of this offensive - RU is about to capture Pisky and start encircling Avdyivka. And UKR Command weakens the front?!

Does not make sense unless UKR up to something. 

 

35 minutes ago, Taranis said:

According to you, what were you waiting for? A grand style offensive with a massive preliminary barrage on the front line, then a concentration of brigades to obtain a break in the line and then an exploitation? Or a continuation of the bombardments on the backs and as soon as a breach is carried out by regular units, a fresh brigade comes to exploit?

I would say there would be three phases:

1. Suprise phase - several mobile groups under arty support breach RU line and try to grab as much settlements as possible probably trying to reach/form a good defensive line 
2. Attrition phase - RU will throw everything including kitchen sink at UKR penetration. This is grinding battle where UKR needs to attrite counter-attacking RU forces. It will be mostly static but extremely brutal
3. Collapse phase - the one who left standing exploit enemy collapse

This is the most reasonable given the current capabilities of both sides.

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, billbindc said:

I think the logic is to do *something* even if it's miles away from something legitimately strategic. Why? Because Putin's Russia has lived by hybrid war doctrine for so long that they don't quite seem to recognize yet that this war isn't one. So they are banking on simply keeping it going, looking busy and signaling bottomless cruelty in the expectation that that will be enough...with some help from frozen German industries this winter...to break up NATO, get Trump reelected, etc. Forlorn? Certainly. But it fits their world view.  

Putin is a post-truth leader, “reality” is whatever he says it is (there is a bit of a global trend in this field of politics).  So he could literally stop right now and declare “victory” right now.  What is stopping him?  He took his land bridge between Crimea and Donbas, took all of Luhansk and enough of the Donetsk.  We literally have western “experts” supporting the idea that the UA is basically been destroyed (see: Macgregor) so demilitarized=done, and denazification is a made up term so he can define success however he wants.

So anymore demonstrating does not make any sense.  The idea that Ukraine would be bombed back to the negotiating table is pretty far fetched unless there is a big puzzle piece they can see that no one else can.  Right now if Ukraine was shaky we would be seeing signals.  Hell it is in the best interest for some if Ukraine was willing to negotiate, we would definitely be seeing more diplomatic pressure if it were the case.  The reality is likely in the other direction, the UA is steadily increasing capability and capacity (we are now sending a mission to the UK to assist in training).

The whole “Russia must attack or look weak”, has some traction but weak failed attacks do not make one look strong either.  This baffling political  bubble Russia has created should serve as a hard lesson for political levels everywhere.  It won’t but it should, because it demonstrates very aptly the touted strength of a “great autocratic leader” to get things done, is offset by the complete lack of sanity feedback mechanisms that greater distribution of political power provide.  Autocrats tend to “get stupid done” very well and Russia is a case study in this.

Back to this war, a doomed RA offensive in the south (as noted, a reactionary one) is not going to accomplish anything given the battlefield conditions we can see, except demonstrate how badly off the RA really is.  I am instead wondering if Russia is not posturing for defence, finally realizing that it has culminated and only a long dragging out provides a viable option set.

[Grigb]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Is there any indication of the intensity level of Russian artillery?  Seems to me that they might be striking fewer "random" targets and instead concentrating on the areas that they are actively attacking with ground forces.

Steve

Sorry, I confused you with my amateur attempts at mapping. I mostly try to avoid map shelling (and do only for main settlements when there is no other info from UKR GS). RU shells dozens of settlements every day and I do not see any useful pattern in reported shelling. On other hand it clatters map enormously (and the map is already complicated).

However, I noticed two distinct patterns in reported RU attacks. They either attack with significant movement (from settlement to settlement) or small local attacks, street fights or just static firefights. Attacks with significant movement are marked with arrow starting from reported direction (settlement). Attacks without significant movement are marked with red start.

So, what you see is that they are ramming now the settlements directly. So, in the South they reached settlements and started to ram them with main forces around 1-Aug. And in the North, it was around yesterday. This is what you see on the map. Will update the legend.

[Grigb]

I already translated Murz description of RU arty high tech. Here are recent photos from current fighting at Bakhmut (3rd photo)

 

 

[Grigb]

Girkin about HIMARS o'clock

Quote

About an hour ago, the Ukrainian Armed Forces again launched a missile attack on the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson. The bridge is closed to traffic.

A song for my RU "Frieds"

 

 

[Grigb]

RU started to claim they pushed UKR out and fully control Pisky. No word about capturing Bridge Republic or Anthill. Just in case reminder that battle for Pisky is not over yet while both positions are not taken.

[UPDATE] Battle for Pisky is about to end. Battle for Avdyivka is about to begin.

Edited August 5, 2022 by Grigb

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Putin is a post-truth leader, “reality” is whatever he says it is (there is a bit of a global trend in this field of politics).  So he could literally stop right now and declare “victory” right now.  What is stopping him?  He took his land bridge between Crimea and Donbas, took all of Luhansk and enough of the Donetsk.  We literally have western “experts” supporting the idea that the UA is basically been destroyed (see: Macgregor) so demilitarized=done, and denazification is a made up term so he can define success however he wants.

Live by the post-truth hybrid, die by the post-truth hybrid. Putin can't just call it a win because he went against large parts of his own kvost to start this war while very intensely activating the radical nationalists in the process. Parts of the West might fall for a disputed tko but *they* won't. The moderates lost the cosmopolitan world and the radicals didn't get the Russkiy Mir. 

[chuckdyke]

Either putin or Zelensky admit defeat before this war is finished like any other war. That is required to declare victory. No need to spin it any other way. 

[Grigb]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Forth, for Russia to take the rest of Donetsk it is going to need all the forces it can get in the Donbas area, so the fact that it's transferring so many units south likely means the Donbas front will no longer be able to move forward either.  And won't that be an interesting time to read some RU Nat blog posts

Steve

The thing is I am keeping an eye on both Kharkiv and Kherson direction. There are very little info about both of them in RU Nats posts. It is like RU high Command decided to keep reporters out of the loop and keep them focused on Donbass offensive. Basically, there are two themes (except Girking)

• In Kherson UKR either will not attack or if they attack it will be costly and we will defeat them.
• In Kharkiv they either know nothing or as one guy claimed there are epic battles nobody knows about and soon it will wake up.

So, no clear info yet.