How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Do you have their location?

I confused this name with position Muraveynik (for westerners - eng.Anthill) on Svitlodarsk bulge. What I found, that Muraveynik separs called UKR positions almost near the western edge of Donetsk airport runway - there are little uplands, where UKR trops gradually established branched position system. But this called just Muraveynik, without Big and Small.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Al Jazeera article out today about tensions amongst Moscow and ethnic regions, amplified by the war but already there before the first shot was fired:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/2/racist-federation-russias-minorities-complain-of-racism

Powder keg, as Grigb points out, that is only getting more and more dropped cigarettes around it as this war continues. 

Steve

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, Eddy said:

This is an heroic level of can't-be-arsed. Or they've run out of green paint!

It is exactly what a unit that felt abused would do. "The orders didn't say to paint over the old symbol, they said to paint the new one." Will be truly fantastic if we see the burned out wreck sometime time soon.

[Beleg85]

Translation of a guy from Pisky, could be posted here before (sorry,just came back and barely have time to read all pages).

[sburke]

57 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For example, the sinking of the Muskova "decided" that Russia's domination of the Black Sea west of Crimea was now untenable.  It wasn't until Russia suffered it's humiliation at Snake Island that this was proven.  Further lack of Russian activity in the area has also demonstrated that Russia's domination in this part of the Black Sea is over.

Steve

which makes this bit of news really funny.

Russian Ships Transit Tsushima Strait, Continue to Circle Japan - USNI News

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It is exactly what a unit that felt abused would do. "The orders didn't say to paint over the old symbol, they said to paint the new one." Will be truly fantastic if we see the burned out wreck sometime time soon.

nah, this one needs to be hauled in via tractor.

[Grigb]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I confused this name with position Muraveynik (for westerners - eng.Anthill) on Svitlodarsk bulge. What I found, that Muraveynik separs called UKR positions almost near the western edge of Donetsk airport runway - there are little uplands, where UKR trops gradually established branched position system. But this called just Muraveynik, without Big and Small.

 

Thank you!

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Intersting person.

Probably major Sergey Kononov, commander of mixed unit, created on 18th July from spetsnaz company of 331st VDV regiment of 98th VDV division and PMC. I wrote that Russians as far as after Popasna seizing operated with mixed groups of VDV and PMC. Looks like they desided as experiment to form mixed special purpose units under VDV command instead just combined units of VDV and PMC acting together, but with own commanders.

Kononov already in 2014 was retired veteran of spetsnaz. Participated in the war on Donbas in 2014-2015, then enlisted in Wagner PMC and participated in combat actions in Syria and Lybia. Was awarded personally by Bashar Assad. 

He participated in this war since Feb 24th. Was near Kyiv and Kharkiv. His familiar told already in that time he was enlisted back to 331st VDV regiment as spetsnaz comany commander, but officer rank he returned back only on 18th July, when on the base of his company, the battalion was established (VDV+PMC?). He also was good specialist in mortars, so his last fight in Kherson oblast was on 22th of July, when he had been fired with mortar, but his position was hit by UKR kamikadze-dron (by other version the mortar shell exploded in the barrel)

He also was some sort of "guru", so was known also as Sudarshna Prabkhu

 

Edited August 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke

Intersting person.

Probably major Sergey Kononov, commander of mixed unit, created on 18th July from spetsnaz company of 331st VDV regiment and PMC. I wrote that Russians as far as after Popasna seizing operated with mixed groups of VDV and PMC. Looks like they desided as experiment to form mixed special purpose units under VDV command instead just combined units of VDV and PMC acting together, but with own commanders.

Kononov already in 2014 was retired veteran of spetsnaz. Participated in the war on Donbas in 2014-2015, then enlisted in Wagner PMC and participated in combat actions in Syria and Lybia. Was awarded personally by Bashar Assad. 

He participated in this war since Feb 24th. Was near Kyiv and Kharkiv. His familiar told already in that time he was enlisted back to 331st VDV regiment as spetsnaz comany commander, but officer rank he returned back only on 18th July, when on the base of his company, the battalion was established (VDV+PMC?). He also was good specialist in mortars, so his last fight in Kherson oblast was on 22th of July, when he had been fired with mortar, but his position was hit by UKR kamikadze-dron (by other version the mortar shell exploded in the barrel)

He also was some sort of "guru", so was known also as Sudarshna Prabkhu

 

I am fairly certain he was murderous bleeping bleep who considered war crimes to be a form of light amusement, but you can't accuse him of being lazy....

[chrisl]

47 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

It does obscure the SAR surveillances, see the right below image. Now imaging RUS put two BM-21 on the ferry, it is very hard for the SAR operator to tell if those two trucks are civilian trucks or military target.  At this moment , the targets can still be identified at the exit point, but it prolongs the UKR's OODA cycle. It changes from "Hey, two arty pieces sit on a ferry, they are going to arrive the other side of river in 20min. I need a battery of 155mm get ready" to " two arty pieces exits the ferry, they are heading towards residential area "

Yes, they are plenty of other platform that can have a optical identification. Just like that thedrive article mentioned, people first thought Russian is building a new pontoon bridge via SAR but satellites image tells a different story.  But it needs time to bring the optical surveillance on station (or spread information in timely manner, for example, visual contact by resistance fighters needs time to reach UKR HQ) . They could not provide an on-time update for Artillery PGM strike. 

That's an amazingly low res image.  If you scroll a little further down in his feed there are even Planet labs images that show the corner reflectors distinctly, and they're pretty low-res as visible imagery goes.  There's commercial SAR that has enough resolution to separate the reflectors from stuff around them.  We certainly don't have access to the best available stuff here on a public forum, and the fact that we can sit here and look at images from other systems that show them clearly should tell you that they really aren't fooling anybody, except maybe a few people in the OSINT community for a few minutes.

[chrisl]

dupe

Edited August 2, 2022 by chrisl

[Harmon Rabb]

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/soldiers-of-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine-are-undergoing-training-on-ships-and-training-grounds-in-great-britain/

Good news.

 

[womble]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

This is special puzzle for you

 

They're getting ready to change sides. Paint an "A" over the top and you have the letters of "Azov"!

[akd]

Short report from front where Ukr is pushing back towards Izium:

 

[Battlefront.com]

51 minutes ago, akd said:

Short report from front where Ukr is pushing back towards Izium:

 

BMP-1.  It's been a while since we've talked about these old codgers.  What's your sense... wider use or still limited to DLPR and a handful of regular Russian units?

Steve

[Calamine Waffles]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

BMP-1.  It's been a while since we've talked about these old codgers.  What's your sense... wider use or still limited to DLPR and a handful of regular Russian units?

Steve

Up until the very end of the Soviet Union, the BMP-2 never actually replaced the BMP-1 on a one-for-one basis. It only ever supplemented it.

[Grigb]

Evening Map time. It is a bit complicated but that is because it has a lot more info than before. There could be mistakes as I am very tired right now - RU Nats seems to get wind of good news and jumped back to RU offensive topic.

  

 

Regarding Pisky this is what I know about situation on the ground as of 10 PM today

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Up until the very end of the Soviet Union, the BMP-2 never actually replaced the BMP-1 on a one-for-one basis. It only ever supplemented it.

We're beyond that   At the start of the war only specific Russian units still used BMP-1s at all.  Most instances of them being used were by DLPR forces.  Which meant that when a BMP-1 was seen/KO'd/captured in a specific area we could glean some information about what Russian forces were fighting in the area.  What I'm wondering is if this is still true now or if there's more BMP-1s taken out of mothballs and going to units that previously had none in service.

Steve

[FancyCat]

How important is Pisky? Or not important at all?

 

[Calamine Waffles]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We're beyond that   At the start of the war only specific Russian units still used BMP-1s at all.  Most instances of them being used were by DLPR forces.  Which meant that when a BMP-1 was seen/KO'd/captured in a specific area we could glean some information about what Russian forces were fighting in the area.  What I'm wondering is if this is still true now or if there's more BMP-1s taken out of mothballs and going to units that previously had none in service.

Steve

I would expect them to still be able to replace their losses with BMP-2s, although BMP-3 has probably become rarer now. They haven't actually built any new BMP-2s since 2005/6.

Edited August 2, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[FancyCat]

 

 

[JonS]

3 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Just paraphrasing something

Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please. – Niccolò Machiavelli

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, JonS said:

I thought he was mangling Machiavelli?

Oh very nice reference, well played sir.

[Jammason]

On the information wars front, I thought it was interesting to see the inner workings of a Russian bot farm, allegedly taken down by the SBU in Kyiv:

 

[Billy Ringo]

So...who is no longer posting?