How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Maybe an example of the sheeps russians are then, they didnt question the authority (driver) and nobody came in the defense of the disabled. Pathetic.

This is the (post)Soviet attitude - nobody gives a fcuk about anybody apart from himself. The concept of civil society, where we actually support each other cause it benefits everyone is completely alien to these people. Poland still struggles with this way of thinking, though we have advanced by leaps and bounds in last 30 years. Russia OTOH, after a brief try gave up on the concept entirely and went back to the soviet indifference,

Edited August 3, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

here is latest RU claim (but so far I asses it is right) regarding captured territory in Pisky. From WarDonbass based on Tatarsky report on 3-Aug 5:30

Discussion: despite the crisis RU captured so far only around half of Pisky. Anthill (western edge of runway) and Bridge Republic (bridges at M-04) are still standing and Pisky is contested. Keep in mind Anthil and the Republic close RU way to next RU objective Vodiane (to the northwest from Pisky), so the main encircling of Avdyivka cannot start until both positions are taken.

Let me also remind you that RU made this progress yesterday, so it seems today they are consolidating as well as bombarding UKR positions. So, the main assault will unlikely to start until tomorrow.

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Maj. Viktor Sluskin, commander 3rd Spetsnaz Group, 25th Separate Spetsnaz Detachment “Mercury,” Rosgvardiya:

 

[akd]

Seems Azerbaijan is back at its favorite pastime of Bayraktaring Armenians.

 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

While I would strongly advocate giving Ukraine mobile short range artillery under any and all circumstances, this isn't what Ukraine needs to counter the Russian advantages.

We've seen, and continue to see, that Russia has a serious shortage of infantry in which to take terrain.  Which is really bad for them because their war is about taking terrain, not killing Ukrainians or holding what they have.

The evidence of how much of a problem this is for Russia has been seen since the first few days of the war and has only gotten more noticeable as the war has gone on.  Over and over again we've seen Russians blow a hole in something and not be able to exploit it because there simply isn't anybody in a physical state to keep the battle going deeper into Ukraine's lines.  Whether that be a operationally significant breakthrough (Izyum, Popasna, Lysychansk, etc.) or some random tactical spot on the battlefield it's the same deficiency. 

The only difference is that with the operational breakthroughs they have enough forces gathered to at least keep momentum going VERY SLOWLY.  The tactical areas, not as much.  This presents Ukraine with a dual solution...

Smash everything that provides motion behind the immediate rear area of a chosen Russian area of focus.  Target all bridges, rail related components, major road junctions, every suspected marshaling area and do it soon as Russia has signals that area is important to it.  This presents major problems for both Russia's artillery fire and moving around infantry resources.

Obviously this is very easy to say and very difficult to do.  But it is what needs to be done.  Ukraine is already doing some of it, but I don't think enough.  155 based PGMs are well within range of these sorts of targets.  If the West hasn't given them enough to make logistics life Hell within a limited geographical area, then get on the phone and get it fixed.  This is a solvable situation with existing weapons systems if they are properly supplied and used in a focused way.

Just my humble opinion

Steve

What Ukraine needs is a REAL counter drone solution. Anything in advanced development anywhere in NATO/Five Eyes should be sent to Ukraine immediately. It would be real world testing, and quite possibly the vital linch pin in this war. I know they are paranoid about the Russian getting ahold of something. But the Russians can't make a bleeping mobile phone. 

2 minutes ago, akd said:

Seems Azerbaijan is back at its favorite pastime of Bayraktaring Armenians.

 

It is just extraordinarily hard to learn that dispersal is is EVERYTHING in modern war. The lessons will continue...

[Grigb]

With all discussions of UKR issues we must not forget that RU is not exactly in good shape either. Far from it. RU Nat is being sarcastic about T-62M

Quote

But ours can. They can even fight stylishly and beautifully on the T62M. We have updated it a little, put dynamic protection and go ahead.

At first I thought that the 62nd was given into the hands of various volunteers and reservists, but no. This is our native Russian vintage army fighting on them. Better than the new Soviet T 80BV tank, only the old Soviet T 62M tank.

5 months in the war and they are already down to T-62 in regular army. 

[cesmonkey]

This is an interesting conversation. In addition to Kofman, they have a Ukrainian reserve colonel on the podcast:

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/31/norway-delivered-gepard-spaag-35mm-shells-are-useless-in-ukraine/

[Grigb]

Reality of RU liberation

Quote

Completed in July battles for the agglomeration of Severodonetsk — Lisichansk — Rubezhnoye: as the front shifted to the southwest, the process of reconstruction began in the settlements. Before the outbreak of hostilities, about 250 thousand people lived in the agglomeration. Now the total population barely exceeds a modest 20 thousand people.

On July 13, the Deputy head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation Sergey Kiriyenko visited Severodonetsk and Lisichansk. He promised that in the near future the agglomeration will be assigned "chiefs" — Russian regions that will help to improve life. But it is still unknown who exactly will oversee these cities.

There is a shortage of everything in cities — first of all, medicines. In terms of products, the situation is more or less tolerable, except for the villages adjacent to the agglomeration: Privolya, Shepilovo, Novodruzheska and others. In some settlements, speculators have multiplied, profiting from the needs of refugees and displaced persons.

There is no gas, light, water, or communication in cities. People go to the military to recharge their phones. There are few water distribution points, people have to stand in queues. Mobile washing stations have been organized, but there are not not enough of them.

The clearance of settlements is too slow. Because of this, it is not possible to start the normal process of housing and infrastructure restoration.

The restoration of homes and infrastructure is too slow. Construction materials are not systematically imported to cities. Although the cold weather will soon begin and people will face the need to somehow survive.

In Rubezhnoye, local residents complain about looting. There are practically no law enforcement agencies in the city, so thieves take out anything. In the conditions of the ended hostilities, this problem requires the toughest solutions.

So far, schools have been restored in only one Severodonetsk. Although the school year is less than a month away.

Now many residents of these cities have a feeling that, although Russia liberated them, it immediately left and abandoned them. There is less than a month left until the beginning of autumn, then the rains will come, followed by frosts.

It will be impossible to survive in the destroyed agglomeration.

 RU does not have years. It must finish war until cold or face political long winter nightmare.

[danfrodo]

I think we might be overreacting to Pisky.  Does losing Pisky constitute a crisis?  According to someone on the ground there's a local lack of artillery, and that's bad, but for all we know UKR is moving more arty to the area.  

Let's also note that RU is able to mass arty only on this single, tiny little sector.  Does that tell us something?  It's not like they are flattening huge sectors of even that area, let alone across a broader front.  RU took a few weeks of relatively low action to prepare for its next offensive -- and it's attacking on a front this small?  I get that RU is hitting lots of places, but it's not flattening lots of places.  So I don't think we can conclude from this that RU is going to smash UKR.  We also can't conclude that UKR has an artillery crisis (I want more, much more arty sent, of course).

If RU gets Pisky they will act like it's the greatest prize in the world, but it's not.  It's just on stop on the road to Slovyansk/Kramatorsk.  And if it took them multiple weeks to set up for this grand offensive, it shows weakness not strength.  They'll have to repeat this over & over & over & over to get anywhere important.

[riptides]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

......

If RU gets Pisky they will act like it's the greatest prize in the world, but it's not.  It's just on stop on the road to Slovyansk/Kramatorsk.  And if it took them multiple weeks to set up for this grand offensive, it shows weakness not strength.  They'll have to repeat this over & over & over & over to get anywhere important.

And yet they continue to move forward, ravaging the lands and peoples in the process. That's their goal and they care not what they have sown.

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, riptides said:

And yet they continue to move forward, ravaging the lands and peoples in the process. That's their goal and they care not what they have sown.

Indeed, indeed.  The question for me is at what cost to themselves RU moves forward.  Are they depleting themselves such that UKR's (hoped for) reconquest becomes easier?  If so, then retaking places like Pisky at some point becomes easy because RU will actually withdraw because they are collapsing in other sectors and need to pull back.

But that all remains to be seen.  In the meantime, RU's program of "ravaging the lands and peoples" continues.  And it only costs RU its military and economy now and in the future.  Seems like a bargain to Putin, I suppose.

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Может пример баранов тогдашние русские, они не оспаривали власть (водителя) и никто не встал на защиту инвалида. Жалкий.

It looks like Russia. He demanded to be transported free of charge on a bus as a war veteran. The driver demanded that he pay like everyone else and he does not care about this war. A good illustration of the attitude of the bulk of Russians to this war and its veterans. At the end of the war, no matter how this war ends, poverty and humiliation await them. So it was after the Second World War, when thousands of useless disabled veterans slowly died not in a war-torn country.

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

It looks like Russia. He demanded to be transported free of charge on a bus as a war veteran. The driver demanded that he pay like everyone else and he does not care about this war. A good illustration of the attitude of the bulk of Russians to this war and its veterans. At the end of the war, no matter how this war ends, poverty and humiliation await them. So it was after the Second World War, when thousands of useless disabled veterans slowly died not in a war-torn country.

I find that to be truly heartbreaking.  Thanks Putin.  I wish enough Russians would start to care about this and turn out in the streets in big enough numbers that the police can't simply pick them off and thrown them in buses for detention.

[Huba]

Whoa, this is an unexpected development. Indirectly, it means Turkey is moving against Russian in Ukraine? I'd think that it is for gaining free hand in Transcaucasia/ Syria. I'm not sure how to feel about it - on one hand, throwing RU from there is good for everyone interested. On the other replacing them with unconstrained Turkey will suck for the Kurds even more...

 

[dan/california]

53 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/31/norway-delivered-gepard-spaag-35mm-shells-are-useless-in-ukraine/

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/30/german-pzh-2000s-in-ukraine-wear-out-error-message-after-heavy-fire/

 

Below is from Armor magazine spring 2022

Dear Editor, After seeing what upgrades have been given to the Abrams M1A2 Systems Enhancement Package Version 2 that I have been on since 2016 and to the new Advanced Multipurpose (AMP) round that might potentially be issued in a time of war, I am under the impression that the overall design and capability of how good the M1 can be is being ruined by good-idea fairies. When I first arrived at my battalion, we had the flex mount for the tank commander (TC)’s .50-caliber weapon. A few years ago, we had the flex mount replaced with Common Remote-Operated Weapon Station (CROWS) 3 (“lo pro CROWS”). The “lo pro CROWS” has become an absolute waste of money to have on the tank. Why? Because it’s another electronic thing that breaks or stops working, and the .50-cal solenoid loses timing. To keep it working requires extra time to ensure that it will work properly – vs. the flex mount, which was simple and easy. Also, the “lo pro CROWS” blocks the TC’s forward vision when he is either in nametape defilade or when he has his hatch in “open protective” mode. And it turns the TC into a gunner when he is trying to use it vs. having his head out of the hatch to correctly survey the battlefield. The best thing for the tank is to get rid of the costly and problematic CROWS and replace it with the flex mount (Commander’s Weapon Station). The AMP round, in concept, is great. The biggest issue I foresee with it is that the Ammunition Data Link that interfaces with the round may break. When that happens, with my understanding of the round, it basically turns it into a glorified high-explosive (HE) anti-tank (AT) round, which defeats the purpose of developing this new round. The AMP round’s capabilities are fantastic; the issue is that it relies on electronic components that will break at the worst time. A better alternative is to take the multipurpose AT round and turn it into an HE round. How to accomplish this? By my understanding, removing all the penetrating cones’ components and cramming the projectile with explosives would do it. Then replace the fuse from air/ground to impact/delay, with the fuse set from the factory on impact. Why an HE round? Because as I read many accounts from World War II, I saw that all sides expended, on average, significantly more HE rounds than armor-piercing (AP) rounds. And when in heavy tank-on-tank combat during World War II, HE was still expended more than AP. Having an analog system is generally more reliable and simple to understand/maintain. Especially for main-gun rounds. Another improvement for the Gunner’s Primary Sight/ Thermal Imaging System would be to have the turret/hull position shown in the optic rather than just on the Gunner’s Control Display Panel. It would be something similar to how it is in the Commander’s Independent Thermal Viewer (CITV). The only difference is that it wouldn’t show where the CITV is looking. SGT BEN SCHNEIDER Company B, 1st Battalion, 35th Armored Regiment, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 1st Armored Division

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The fancy go bang HAS to work, if you don't want to spend the money to make it WORK, simple is much better.

[sross112]

16 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

So...who is no longer posting?

I've been missing @LongLeftFlank's postings. 

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, sross112 said:

I've been missing @LongLeftFlank's postings. 

Is there a known reason for his disappearance?

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Captured Maj. Pavel Gruzev, 7th Military Base (maybe the interview contains more detail?):

 

 

[FancyCat]

 

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

I think we might be overreacting to Pisky.  Does losing Pisky constitute a crisis?  According to someone on the ground there's a local lack of artillery, and that's bad, but for all we know UKR is moving more arty to the area.  

Let's also note that RU is able to mass arty only on this single, tiny little sector.  Does that tell us something?  It's not like they are flattening huge sectors of even that area, let alone across a broader front.  RU took a few weeks of relatively low action to prepare for its next offensive -- and it's attacking on a front this small?  I get that RU is hitting lots of places, but it's not flattening lots of places.  So I don't think we can conclude from this that RU is going to smash UKR.  We also can't conclude that UKR has an artillery crisis (I want more, much more arty sent, of course).

If RU gets Pisky they will act like it's the greatest prize in the world, but it's not.  It's just on stop on the road to Slovyansk/Kramatorsk.  And if it took them multiple weeks to set up for this grand offensive, it shows weakness not strength.  They'll have to repeat this over & over & over & over to get anywhere important.

This i saw recently, and while these are different wars and time periods, land being traded back and forth is normal, with attacks and counterattacks taking place for small and big pieces of territory. We shouldn't be expecting Russia to be unable to advance wholly. What matters is looking at it in context, yeah, Pisky is taken, so what? Does Russia break thru and advance in a rapid manner? Probably not. Does Ukraine fall back to a new defensive line? Most likely. If Ukraine is once again running out of ammo, we should be seeing Russian advances in multiple areas, not just Pisky.

Unless things pile on in seriousness, Pisky shouldn't be a big worry. 

 

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

This i saw recently, and while these are different wars and time periods, land being traded back and forth is normal, with attacks and counterattacks taking place for small and big pieces of territory. We shouldn't be expecting Russia to be unable to advance wholly. What matters is looking at it in context, yeah, Pisky is taken, so what? Does Russia break thru and advance in a rapid manner? Probably not. Does Ukraine fall back to a new defensive line? Most likely. If Ukraine is once again running out of ammo, we should be seeing Russian advances in multiple areas, not just Pisky.

Unless things pile on in seriousness, Pisky shouldn't be a big worry. 

 

This youtube channel is GREAT!  It's week by week ww2 w special episodes now & then.  All theaters.  Currently they are in 1943 for the weekly episodes.  Kursk just ended and RU pushing hard on german lines over very broad fronts.  We all know what's gonna happen but great to see it w animated maps and excellent writing/narration.  And there's lots I don't know that surprises me.  

 

[Huba]

12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

This youtube channel is GREAT!  It's week by week ww2 w special episodes now & then.  All theaters.  Currently they are in 1943 for the weekly episodes.  Kursk just ended and RU pushing hard on german lines over very broad fronts.  We all know what's gonna happen but great to see it w animated maps and excellent writing/narration.  And there's lots I don't know that surprises me.  

 

Sorry for the offtopic, but if you are after this type of content, I relly recommend The Great War and World War Two. They are going through the both affairs week by week, with a multitude of other videos dealing with other related topics. It isn't really as in depth as you could get from books, but it's awesome to organize your knowledge. Can't praise these enough.

There's also similar, much smaller project about War of 1870

Edit: Ugh, I thought the link was to "Kings and General". Yeah, WW2 is an awesome channel

Edited August 3, 2022 by Huba

[sburke]

56 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Is there a known reason for his disappearance?

work, he goes in phases due to workload.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Is there a known reason for his disappearance?

According to what he said a month or two ago he is an oil trader, and was just getting so busy he couldn't post in a significant way. Nothing about the way the energy markets are bouncing around implies that is changing any time soon.

Edited August 3, 2022 by dan/california
spelling

[Markus86]

4 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Where is that? Kherson, or Russia? This is really sad and sorry the driver is an inhuman piece of meat no matter what the unfortunate soldier was involved in.

Yes, totally. I mean he delivered a completely understandable explanation. Ukrainian nazis eat children. So he had to go there and fight them.