How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Civilian "Girkin" (Nesmyan) opinion regarding Kremlin intentions for gas supply to Germany

Quote

Gazprom has received documents and a license for the maintenance and installation of a turbine for the Nord Stream, but something is wrong again:

Gazprom has received documents on the turbine from the Canadian authorities from Siemens, but they do not remove the previously identified risks and raise new questions, the company said

Most likely, there is a political decision to delay the increase in gas supply through the Nord Stream as long as possible. Therefore, now there will be excuses and a search for reasons why it is impossible to raise the gas supply.

[it seems] There is a rather strong link: Germany has been given a condition to stop to provide assistance to Ukraine in exchange for the resumption of gas supply in full. There are simply no other reasons here.

 

[Butschi]

15 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Civilian "Girkin" (Nesmyan) opinion regarding Kremlin intentions for gas supply to Germany

 

I don't get how they have become so bad at manipulating us. The smart way would have been to just go back to 100% and act as if we were still best friends. That would have made keeping up sanctions and helping Ukraine much more difficult for our government, especially come winter. With this now even the greatest Putin apologist will have a hard time ignoring that the Kremlin can no longer be trusted in business transactions.

[Grigb]

Girkin ranted about Kadyrov threat that West is pushing RU to start full scale war. He believes the real cause is something went wrong with Third Effective Phase of SMO (what I call victory offensive) [HIMARS?]. 

His next rant is below (I cut paragraph with ranting about RU Navy Parade preparation)

Quote

...And - in general - I had a feeling that for some reason the Kremlin decided that the Russian Federation would be able to play its "Vietnam" in Ukraine without much damage for several years - without mobilizing the army and industry in the "metropolis" - with only regular troops + "satellite army" ("mobikami" LDNR). Like - "somehow, slowly, little by little, we will oust the AFU from Donbass, and then we will see." [RU believes that their superius in numbers artillery inflicts huge losses that UKR cannot absorb for long] Apparently, "victorious mantras", such as "Ukrainian troops have almost left Seversk" (they have been "leaving" every day for almost two weeks) and "half of Novolugansk is occupied by our troops, the Uglegorsk thermal power plant is being cleaned up" (also a week already) are sufficient to maintain the impression of the population and (probably) the president that "everything is going according to plan, the enemy is about to be defeated."

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation responds to the lack of the necessary forces at the front for any further serious offensive.... it doesn't respond with anything. Just stupidly waiting. And it seems to me for a long time that it is waiting quite clearly and consciously: when the Ukrainian army will finally be able to inflict serious defeats on the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. In order, probably, to provoke a "revolutionary situation" against their background - by the autumn.

Well, this is exactly the scenario I have repeatedly assumed. Already since 2014. And now Mukden is just around the corner. Apparently. - The enemy's forces are slowly but surely growing. And our forces are also slowly, but just as constantly decreasing without normal replenishment with serious fresh reserves (which no one is preparing - because there is nothing and nobody). One day the scales will swing sharply in favor of the enemy.
It would be better [for RU], after all, not to bring this unfortunate moment forward.

I need to add that according to my conversation with people, the nationalist part of the population is waiting till September/October when cold kicks in and put some sense into Europeans [direct quote]. So, support for UKR will stop and they will surrender. Probably that's what RU MOD is waiting for as well.

Also, if Girkin is right then the new RU offensive preparation has stalled probably due to HIMARS. That's why RU MOD decided to hold on instead and Kadyrov was called to fill the wait. 

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I don't get how they have become so bad at manipulating us. The smart way would have been to just go back to 100% and act as if we were still best friends. That would have made keeping up sanctions and helping Ukraine much more difficult for our government, especially come winter. With this now even the greatest Putin apologist will have a hard time ignoring that the Kremlin can no longer be trusted in business transactions.

As per my conversations I think they believe EU is now in the midst of a serious economic crisis and everybody is running around in panic (they interpreted Johnson and Mario Draghi resigns as the confirmation of the crisis). So, probably they feel they can be arrogant now. 

[MikeyD]

I like the notion that Russia is being pressed to start a 'full scale war'. Do they have another army sitting around that we don't know about? Do they have an excess of pilots who aren't recalled retirees?

[Beleg85]

Some more infor regarding latest batch of T-91 for Ukraine:

-It's disputable how many tank did go, and how many will go. Many expect whole fleet (240+) will sooner or later be delivered.

-Together with T-72, this should beef up UAF tank force to ca.500. If we count tanks from other countries (Czechs, former Yugo) their tank force should be 600 foreign tanks.

-Numbers of Gozdzik, BM-21's and other post-soviet equipment from other countries are also large, but unspecified.

-The most interesting part- rumours say deliveries started several months ago. This is crucial, perhaps there are also deliveries form other countries that we still don't know yet.

 

[Grigb]

5 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I like the notion that Russia is being pressed to start a 'full scale war'. Do they have another army sitting around that we don't know about? Do they have an excess of pilots who aren't recalled retirees?

They mean not the actual war but full-scale terror war. After HIMARS got their attention and especially after HIMARS got bridges they were discussing destruction of electrical plants, communication infrastructure, bridges and so on to put UKR civilians in a state of total chaos to force capitulation.

[Jammason]

On 7/23/2022 at 10:37 PM, Calamine Waffles said:

What exactly would they nuke? Kyiv? I doubt that would cause Ukraine to surrender. If anything it would harden resistance even more.

What would they nuke, Tom Clancy version: False flag suitcase bomb in Sevastopol. “The evil Nazis have destroyed one of our cities, and now we are justified in destroying a Ukrainian city of our choosing.” … and they take out Kyiv.

Why Sevastopol? The false flag offering would have to be significant to justify the response, and it has the benefit of being a justifiable (sellable) target given its role in Crimea’s complicated history. It’s also NOT in the mainland, so the domestic audience can get very angry at Ukraine without feeling as though the Kremlin failed to protect them.

This is the “last ditch” of a Kremlin sure they were going to lose Crimea.

But again, this is only in the Tom Clancy world.

[Taranis]

burned-out T-64

[Der Zeitgeist]

9 minutes ago, Jammason said:

What would they nuke, Tom Clancy version: False flag suitcase bomb in Sevastopol. “The evil Nazis have destroyed one of our cities, and now we are justified in destroying a Ukrainian city of our choosing.” … and they take out Kyiv.

Why Sevastopol? The false flag offering would have to be significant to justify the response, and it has the benefit of being a justifiable (sellable) target given its role in Crimea’s complicated history. It’s also NOT in the mainland, so the domestic audience can get very angry at Ukraine without feeling as though the Kremlin failed to protect them.

This is the “last ditch” of a Kremlin sure they were going to lose Crimea.

But again, this is only in the Tom Clancy world.

I must say, on the entire nuclear issue:

One good thing this war has shown is that nukes don't help. Sure, they can prevent the West from directly intervening, but they don't help you win a war by themselves. You can be the strongest nuclear power on earth but in the end, it's all just useless holes in the ground with missiles and warheads in them, a huge waste of money and resources with no military application whatsoever, even in the greatest war your country has ever fought.

Edited July 25, 2022 by Der Zeitgeist

[Grigb]

4 minutes ago, Jammason said:

What would they nuke, Tom Clancy version: False flag suitcase bomb in Sevastopol. “The evil Nazis have destroyed one of our cities, and now we are justified in destroying a Ukrainian city of our choosing.” … and they take out Kyiv.

Why Sevastopol? The false flag offering would have to be significant to justify the response, and it has the benefit of being a justifiable (sellable) target given its role in Crimea’s complicated history. It’s also NOT in the mainland, so the domestic audience can get very angry at Ukraine without feeling as though the Kremlin failed to protect them.

This is the “last ditch” of a Kremlin sure they were going to lose Crimea.

But again, this is only in the Tom Clancy world.

Do not think it would work - for example bomb in suite case needs certain skill level of manufacture.

To freak out the RU population heinous but generally harmless act is needed. So, most probably again resident building explosions at night. They will find some UKR citizen immigrant, hire him using their undercover small business, give him bags with sugar and address of storage near resident building. He will store it there. They will replace bags with explosives, explode the building and then capture him. Easy and straight forward. That's FSB modus operandi. 

[chrisl]

14 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I must say, on the entire nuclear issue:

One good thing this war has shown is that nukes don't help. Sure, they can prevent the West from directly intervening, but they don't help you win a war by themselves. You can be the strongest nuclear power on earth but in the end, it's all just useless holes in the ground with missiles and warheads in them, a huge waste of money and resources with no military application whatsoever, even in the greatest war your country has ever fought.

They're currently functioning exactly as designed - not a single NATO member is coming across the border to help in Ukraine.  They're sending lots of stuff, but Ukraine is on their own for troops.  The way Russia's other neighbors have stepped up, there's a non-zero chance there would be more belligerents signed onto defending Ukraine if Russia didn't have a nuclear arsenal. And Russia is being very, very careful to no drop any shrapnel on NATO members, despite all the posturing.

Edited July 25, 2022 by chrisl

[Grigb]

Murz wrote another post. Apart from link to fresh Girkin video he wrote about pre-war LDNR experience with advisers from RU MOD. I translated it in full as a comparison between officers of LDNR hardcore volunteer units and RU regulars.

But if you are not interested in the subject it can be safely skipped (LDNRs are good, RU regulars are very bad)

Quote

The "military reported" [mil propagandists] Kotenok is still waiting for normal generals and colonels "who once took a textbook on tactics into their hands." I immediately remember the conversation with the "Kind" [nickname of LDNR commander] year, it seems, in 2017. "Kind" told how the officers of the "Ghost" [LNDR battalion] came to Lugansk for training. All were equipped with Batyushkin's book "Tactics. A company, a battalion," and some even had a rare "Military topography" at that time. "Do you know," said the "Kind", "what was the reaction of the Russians [regulars]? Where did you get SUCH textbooks?!?"

But there is nothing supernatural in that textbook. Just a BUSV [RU field manual] explained in human language with typical examples. By the way, [everybody] knew it, this textbook, on a not bad level - Vadimych, "Ghost" chief of staff, [who] left [later] for a position in the 4th brigade, drove [everybody] mercilessly through the material, really engaged with people, and even when he was already at the brigade, he returned and conducted verification of the knowledge. Well, Arkadich, accordingly, forced it to the brigade as much as he could.

What made these textbooks unique and rare was that during the Serdyukov reform of the army, the "Voenizdat" [RU MOD publishing department] was closed, and it stopped producing specialized literature. I bought myself such a textbook before the war, read it sometimes, took it with me to the war in May 2014, and it disappeared among my other equipment due to the looters of Kozitsyn. In 2016, when the "Kind" voiced problems with the training of officers, I remembered about this textbook, and we Googled where in Moscow you can buy the last remnants. In December 2016, having made my way to the "ruins" of the "Voenizdat", I bought the latter and then put it in the Republics, where the textbook instantly became a coveted bibliographic rarity. "Electronic" [version] in military units is not so easy to read, only "paper" can be kept with you all the time, therefore, even if there is a book in the "electronic" [version], we tried to get paper for those who really wanted to study.

There were no new deliveries of the "paper" [version] for as long as two years, until the Knorus publishing house began to republish military-issue items [materials]. And we immediately bought and distributed more and more of the literature. All while the Russians continued to wonder "Where did you get THIS?!?" And there were also funny ones who, having taken a book from the shelf in part, opened it on the subtitle "Approved by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation" and began to squeal "You can't! Take it away!!! Paint over!!!!!!" [RU MOD wanted any links to RU to be removed]

That's the answer to the question "Why didn't they read textbooks?!?"
Because "In 2009, the FSUE [federal enterprise] "Military Publishing House of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation" was transformed into JSC "Military Publishing House" ("Voenizdat") with the inclusion in the joint-stock company "Red Star"... and so on, so on, so on, until the state of 2017, when an elderly uncle, who saw the best years of the publishing house, opened a storage room for me, where all the all reserves of "Tactics" in the country were lying, and I rammed them all into my 85-liter backpack under the stories that the current functionality of the military printing is reduced to support the printing of the annual exhibition "Army". And I thought - "What a pity that i do not have enough money to buy out now and "Fire training" as well..."

Now you know, citizens, who is to blame for the fact that the officers and generals of the Russian army did not have textbooks. KTSPN [volunteer org] and insidious Murz [Author] in particular. And by no means Serdyukov. Bought up, you know, everything. The bastards. Sabouters.

And do you know how it ended up in the end? [With] Other officer training camps, combat battalion training camps in 2020. "Kind" (then the battalion commander of the 14th BTRO [LDNR TerBat]) and "Peter" (the 16th BTRO) were then unfairly graded, and in response to objections, the senior boss, who placed the grades, said bluntly - "Do you want me to put "locals" higher than "regulars"?"

Well, go ahead with cheating now that Ukrainian arty checks the tests. Cheat [I dare you].

 

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, poesel said:

I do agree with you that there will be a response. But for one tactical nuke, the better answer would be a no-fly zone over Ukraine. A 'tit-for-tat' nuke would not accomplish much and had mostly symbolic value. A no-fly zone would more or less end the war, and the shame would be on Russia.
It would be a huge win (in this context) if the narrative after the war is 'we dropped the bomb, but still didn't win the war'.

But I really doubt anything like that will happen.

Putin understands that going nuclear is not going to make anything better. If he forgets NATO planes should just start killing every Russian soldier in Ukraine, a no fly zone is insufficient.

6 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

In the meantime, working on tactics in BS, scouting 21st century. Starting the US Campaign, stopped the Russian Campaign shooting Ukrainians is not much fun.

Last of the Russian scout vehicles in that zone. Incredible, they seem to be as silly as in real life. Can't play campaigns against a human player. 

 

Steve can spend the next one hundred years pointing out that the AI may be awful, but it is better than actual Russian officers.

12 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Murz wrote another post. Apart from link to fresh Girkin video he wrote about pre-war LDNR experience with advisers from RU MOD. I translated it in full as a comparison between officers of LDNR hardcore volunteer units and RU regulars.

But if you are not interested in the subject it can be safely skipped (LDNRs are good, RU regulars are very bad)

 

This might be the most revealing anecdote yet of how the RU armed forces reached their current state of pitiful disarray.

[Grigb]

CIT current assestment

Izum

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According to sources, including wiretaps (published in the media by the head of military intelligence of Ukraine), we see that Russian forces are pulling together in the Slavyansk direction. In one of the wiretaps we hear about the dead soldiers and about a potential offensive in the Izyum direction (confirmed by our sources). Based on this, we can say that something will start this week (however, we cannot say that a large-scale offensive will begin along the entire front line). Here we see three potential options for the actions of the Russian forces:

• they will go straight to Slavyansk;
• they will go to Barvenkovo;
• they will go to cut the highway connecting Barvenkovo and Slavyansk.

 

RU reinforce South front

Quote

Over the past week, we have received signals that the transfer of forces of the Eastern Military District to the south of Ukraine through Crimea is beginning. This information is confirmed, we see many echelons with equipment. We have two options for the further development of events for this group of troops:

• Either they will go to the Kherson direction to defend Russian positions from a potential counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces. This will not be an adequate solution: if Kherson is cut off, a large group of troops will be surrounded (although they need to somehow hold their positions in this direction).
• Or they will go to the Zaporozhye direction, where they will begin to attack Pologi, Gulyai-Pole and go north to seize the initiative, cut off communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donetsk region, cut off the supply lines of the remnants of the Donetsk region and create a threat to Zaporozhye.

...The grouping of troops "South" continues to remain in the southern direction (Kherson direction, Melitopol).

 

Bakhmut-Soledar-Seversk

Quote

We see that the so-called second army corps of the People's Militia of the LPR and the Wagner group are actively operating in the direction of Bakhmut-Soledar-Seversk. They are fighting in the area of Bakhmut and Soledar, trying to attack Seversk; perhaps they will try to bypass Bakhmut from the south, from the Uglegorsk thermal power plant, and reach the Yar River in order to further accelerate the cutting off of the grouping of Ukrainian troops on the Bakhmut-Soledar-Seversk line.

Somewhere in this area there are troops of the "Center" group (the last thing we remember about them is that they operated somewhere near Lisichansk, and we did not see a large–scale movement). We believe that when the operational pause ends (which may happen this week), the Center group will help the forces of the second army corps of the LPR and the Wagner group and will advance in the direction of Bakhmut-Soledar-Seversk.

[dan/california]

 

Does someone have a ground launched one besides the Israelis? or is this a subtle way of saying that Ukraine is getting a NATO aircraft of some description. 

 

Edited July 25, 2022 by dan/california

[MikeyD]

I speculated awhile back that F16's utility would be that its got the necessary wiring to fire HARM missiles, something I expect Soviet-legacy aircraft lack

[The_MonkeyKing]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Does someone have a ground launched one besides the Israelis? or is this a subtle way of saying that Ukraine is getting a NATO aircraft of some description. 

 

Just look at the French sales of Exocet and all the ungodly things they were jerry-rigged to..

doesn't necessarily mean much in terms of platforms.

[sburke]

7 hours ago, panzermartin said:

So, what is the actual point of diminissing the nuclear capabilities of Russia? To make us feel better, I know.

Because in all other aspects it doesnt matter. Its not a discussion with some conclusion to export. We can only assume and assuming in such life or death matters is not a good guide. And if you have Brazil's GDP doesn't matter that much either. According to the GDP of Germany, they should have the best european army and nukes. But they don't because their focus was not there. And North Korea has 30 to 40 nuclear warheads with a GDP a fraction of Malta''s. If you are a country that has been succesfully practicing nuclear weapons since the 1940s and you have thousand advanced rockets, you still have some good chance to end civilization.

No point in debating this. 

as long as you keep dodging the point sure it really makes no sense to discuss.  However, if you would like to consider how well Russia maintains that enormous nuclear force on a GDP lower than Italy sure maybe we can have a rational discussion of just what kind of state that nuclear force is in... and that should scare most Russians.

Last I heard Malta's population wasn't being starved to death so not having Nukes is likely a good thing.,

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I speculated awhile back that F16's utility would be that its got the necessary wiring to fire HARM missiles, something I expect Soviet-legacy aircraft lack

MAybe they have rigged some NATO hardpoints to their Su-25s, but they have been really quiet about it.

[panzermartin]

25 minutes ago, sburke said:

as long as you keep dodging the point sure it really makes no sense to discuss.  However, if you would like to consider how well Russia maintains that enormous nuclear force on a GDP lower than Italy sure maybe we can have a rational discussion of just what kind of state that nuclear force is in... and that should scare most Russians.

Last I heard Malta's population wasn't being starved to death so not having Nukes is likely a good thing.,

I'm not dodging any point. Of course the state of their nuclear will probably not be ideal. And the number of active warheads might not be accurate. But I find it more scary personally, less safe. You imply that this will prevent them from using them? I don't really know. Or in an event of nuclear war this will help NATO somewhat prevail? 

The US administration doesn't behave like they underestimate Russia's nuclear arsenal though. 

 

[Mattias]

8 hours ago, Grigb said:

“This is my last post about RU evilness. But I strongly advise everybody who gives RU benefit of doubt to stop talking and start learning - the real world is different Western European school textbooks.”

 

Thank you for your patience Grigb. Being forced to relate to USSR/russia my/our whole life, due to its potential and propensity for violence, I can say that it has been a decent into darkness - gradually accelerating over the last 10-15 years and turning into a free fall post February 24.

Looking back I can see that the process has been slowed by my own positive perspective on life, living securely in a relatively just society. Naïveté? Insufficient focus I think. 

Any way, I have come and I have seen - and nothing you say contradicts the obvious.

Edited July 25, 2022 by Mattias
Missed quote

[sburke]

19 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

The US administration doesn't behave like they underestimate Russia's nuclear arsenal though. 

I think we are talking past one another here.  I am not arguing anything about US posture or potential threat of Russian nuclear weapons.  I don't honestly feel nuclear escalation is in the cards due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  The point I am making is more the concern in Russia about the state of its nuclear forces.  They don't need 6000 warheads for a deterrence factor.  The threat of a few hundred is more than enough. You can only incinerate the planet once that counts.  No one will be around to appreciate the next few dozen times.

However, having 6000 poorly maintained warheads lying around is a whole other issue. Russia has consistently shown that corruption has had a detrimental effect on the regular maintenance status of not just the gear for the front-line grunts like food supplies, ammo, vehicle tires etc. but also major fleet elements to the point Kutzenov had to travel with a tug.  To assume that Russia would somehow follow a completely different pattern of behavior with its rocket forces is wishful thinking.  Russia's nuclear forces is pretty much THE status symbol that puts them in the top tier of military powers.  It is however a force that is beyond its capability to truly maintain.  Think Diry Harry walking around with that big arse gun but it is now rusting and prone to misfire.  It is still a big arse gun, but potentially more a problem to the weapon owner.

[dan/california]

And he is as credible a source as exists in  war zone.

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Huba said:

There's also talk about acquiring heavy IFVs, probably AS21, for heavy brigades operating M1. 

Borsuk ("badger") is a new indigenous design, but ramping up production and actually building 1000+ will take a decade, something to fill the gaps is needed in the meantime. 

And a interesting detail about K2 - tanks that we'll be getting are to be both up-armored compared to Korean models, and will be equiped with hard-kill APS. 

What happened with PL01 project? Looked like Startroopers vehicle ) You made decision to rise army capabilities as quick as possible and don't wait for this development? I wonder what we will do after war - either continue to develop some unclear "Molot" project (anyway based on 30-years old concept) or completely other tank will be started to develop "from zero", taking into account modern trends. Or we will buy foreign tanks like you. But our tank-producing lobby doesn't allow to do this