How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Nervous video how UKR Bradley disembarks infantry squad and takes back two soldiers hiding in crater - remains of other squad, which was pushed from tree-plant by Russians. Despite Russians already control this tree-plant, crew of Bradley has driven close, supressing Russians to take wounded soldier. Also you can see a body of probably UKR soldier, who was killed during retreat, alas there wasn't time and opportunity to take him aboard

 

Edited April 22 by Haiduk

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

I dunno, what about this?

 

Send a drone withe a room service tray cover to drop on it?

[poesel]

Found this in the thread of the GOBLN:

Ukraine has developed a drone mine-detector called “Brave 1”. It can survey 3000 m2 on a 30 minute charge. The drone scans the surface and creates a map of metal containing objects using GPS tags. It grades the size of each detection and attaches photos or video of the ground.

[panzermartin]

44 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Hard sitauation we have also in Krasnohorivka town north to occupied Maryinka. Several days ago Russians could break through of our rare artilery fire and drones and despite some losses in vehicles landed infantry in southern and south-eastern part of the town. Russians seized railway station area - this is area of dachas and private cottages, also Russian infantry was too few to continue advance. But we also had few infantry to clear this territory. Russians became to use their usual tactic of gradual forces accumulation in captured area for new further burst. Reportedly yesterday UKR troops again threw out Russians from SE part of Krasnohotivka and partially from southern part, recapturing railway stattion. But today Russians again slightly advanced in southern part of the town. BTW southern part is the contested area, because there too hard hold the ground for both sides. Main stronghold of UKR trrops (by Russian opinion) is a local fireproof structures plant, which Russian aviation "processes" with 500 kg and 1500 kg KABs. 

 

So the Russians keep pushing despite losses. 

Some questions. 

Have they really calculated they can take every small Ukrainian settlement in slow fashion while taking losses of precious equipment, even from hits in their airports well behind lines? Could they win the ground war and lose in the big picture in the end. Or they have certain city goals like Kharkiv and Kramatorsk - Slaviansk that think will bring a domino blow in the UKR political/military structure. 

Where are the precious toys Ukraine has received from the West. I see some scattered Bradleys here and there but no news about Leopards, M1s, Challengers etc. Artillery systems are also not much visible anymore. 

Is Ukraine holding them for a bigger counter operation, or they have suffered heavier losses than actually reported. 

 

 

[Vet 0369]

On 4/18/2024 at 9:22 AM, Battlefront.com said:

It used to be that mental illness, extreme immorality, blatant lying, obvious criminality, etc. were frowned upon.  The sad fact of the GOP, for a while now, is that as long as you parrot various right of center talking points nobody within the party will do anything.  Look at how much effort it took to get rid of Santos.

There's so many downsides to a political party that values power over policy, however on topic with this thread we're seeing that it can also cost lives and come at a steep cost to national security.  The Ukraine funding bill should never have been held up, but even the Republicans angered over its delay stayed quiet for months because they put party over country. 

Obviously there was a lot of pressure building up behind the scenes, and it is why this thing finally is on the way to a vote largely intact, but so much time slipped by that didn't have to.  It would have taken only one pro-American GOP House member to have gone to Johnson and said "I'm going to leadership challenge your arse if you don't put this bill to a vote" to get things moving faster.  Johnson needs to fear the majority of his caucus more than the insane fringe.

Steve

Ok, I don’t intend to get into or start an off topic political discussion, but I have to respond to this. Unfortunately, we in the U.S. are living in a blatantly partisan political environment. The Democratic Party are just as partisan as the Republican Party, and will pull the same crap. They are mostly more concerned about getting a leg-up over, and embarrassing the other party than doing the “right thing” for the American people and its allies. The two extremes of the parties have driven out all of the “old moderates.” Yes, the Republicans have their MTGs, but the Democrats have their AOCs. Both are equally destructive to the process.

I keep hearing about how disruptive Republican Mitch McGovern was as the Senate Majority Leader, but everyone seems to forget about Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who refused to allow a single proposed bill that was proposed or passed by a Republican House, to go to the Senate floor for a vote.

I’m really sick and tired of the extremely partisan comments and camouflaged attacks that are constantly being posted by Liberals and Conservatives on this supposedly neutral Forum Thread. How about everyone who is doing it, stop and consider whether whether or not the Left and Right Wing garbage they are posting is appropriate to this thread.

Edited April 22 by Vet 0369
Typos

[Haiduk]

26 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Or they have certain city goals like Kharkiv and Kramatorsk - Slaviansk that think will bring a domino blow in the UKR political/military structure. 

This.

+their PsyOps campaign targeting "illegitimacy" of Zelenskyi after 31st of May. GUR chief Budanov told today that "hard times await Ukraine in second half of May and June, but nothing apocaliptic will happen" - and he meant i.e. Russian attempt to rise "Maidan-3", especially if this is accompanied by front failures and further destruction of power generation.  

26 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Where are the precious toys Ukraine has received from the West. I see some scattered Bradleys here and there but no news about Leopards, M1s, Challengers etc. Artillery systems are also not much visible anymore. 

Russians wrote most of UKR tanks moved on rear lines further from Lancets. They episodically move to zero line - to support infantry if need and roll back. Though, you can see regularly UKR tank and light armor losses in Oryx team reports, so they still in use. Now is a time of infantry and drone war. Why too few videos of artillery usage? Lack of the shells. Serviceman of 43rd arty brigade (PzH2000 + Pions) wrote they have so few shells, that mostly maintain own vehicles, than fire. Also in conditions of shells lack almost all UKR artilelry battalions obtain FPV pilots speciality - this gives them opportunity to hit the enemy, though not on so big ranges, like with guns.  

Edited April 22 by Haiduk

[Twisk]

Fundamentally this is a thread about the Russo-Ukraine war that is (unsurprisingly) pro-Ukrainian. So the U.S. political party that refused to bring aid to a vote is going to catch the most flak here. And like yea AOC might be destructive to some process but she isn't destructive to getting Ukraine the materials the country needs to fight the Russian invasion. The House vote tally was overwhelming for aid so why wasn't there a vote on the aid 6 months ago?

Like I don't want to talk about gun rights, or schools, or abortion, or any number of other U.S. hot button topics. But I've been sitting here for ~6 months watching as one particular party refused to allow Ukraine what it needs. And frankly I'm not an unbiased observer about this and its one of the reasons I stepped away from the thread for a while. Its hard to come in here to hear and see bad news about the war and then be non-partisan about the partisan politics that are getting Ukrainians killed. Like if you trawl this thread you will see video evidence on nearly every page of real soldiers and civilians who died needlessly for some partisan BS.

 

27 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

snip...

 

Edited April 22 by Twisk

[JonS]

24 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

The Democratic Party are just as partisan as the Republican Party,

The dose makes the poison.

Looking from the outside, there is absolutely zero equivalence between the two parties. None at all.

There are ... odd individuals in both, but at the party level only one is utterly dysfunctional.

Theres also this inconvenient reality:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_federal_politicians_convicted_of_crimes

[Vet 0369]

On 4/18/2024 at 10:24 AM, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like Russia is finally using widescale CS gas on Ukrainian positions.  We've seen this here and there for most of the war, but it seems there is much more of it going on now.  This report documents its use pretty along the whole front:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/04/06/russia-using-illegal-chemical-attacks-against-ukraine/

Steve

Is using a crowd control irritant banned by something? Tear gas and CS gas are, or were, classified by percentage. IIRC, tear gas is classified as 7% and CS gas is classified as 100%. We had to pass an annual gas training that used CS as the irritant so I’m very aware of the effects of CS gas, even without breathing it in. In fact, I used CS gas canisters as an MP in Japan to quell a race riot in town, and was asleep when some drunken Regulars tossed a couple of CS gas grenades into our barracks because they had to change barracks so our Reserve Unit had a place to bunk during our two-week active training. One Marine was missing during the emergency muster, so our Staff NCOs (me included) went back into the barracks without masks to find him and get him out. Yes, I’m very familiar with the effects of CS gas.

As far as I know, unless some treaty has prohibited it since the Cold War, use of CS gas is not prohibited or illegal. The problem is that it can affect the attacker just as much as the defender.

[panzermartin]

So after WW1, we will now see again photos of men in gas masks in trenches. Are we really moving forward

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

So after WW1, we will now see again photos of men in gas masks in trenches. Are we really moving forward

The history develops by spiral %) Avdiivka-Chasiv Yar is "Russian Somme" ? 

[Carolus]

21 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Is using a crowd control irritant banned by something? Tear gas and CS gas are, or were, classified by percentage. IIRC, tear gas is classified as 7% and CS gas is classified as 100%. We had to pass an annual gas training that used CS as the irritant so I’m very aware of the effects of CS gas, even without breathing it in. In fact, I used CS gas canisters as an MP in Japan to quell a race riot in town, and was asleep when some drunken Regulars tossed a couple of CS gas grenades into our barracks because they had to change barracks so our Reserve Unit had a place to bunk during our two-week active training. One Marine was missing during the emergency muster, so our Staff NCOs (me included) went back into the barracks without masks to find him and get him out. Yes, I’m very familiar with the effects of CS gas.

As far as I know, unless some treaty has prohibited it since the Cold War, use of CS gas is not prohibited or illegal. The problem is that it can affect the attacker just as much as the defender.

AFAIK, the chemical weapons convention includes irrititants. 

The USA reserve the use for "defensive action" and when its usage could prevent civilian harm, but it cannot not be used offensively e.g. for house clearing.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Ok, I don’t intend to get into or start an off topic political discussion, but I have to respond to this. Unfortunately, we in the U.S. are living in a blatantly partisan political environment. The Democratic Party are just as partisan as the Republican Party, and will pull the same crap. They are mostly more concerned about getting a leg-up over, and embarrassing the other party than doing the “right thing” for the American people and its allies. The two extremes of the parties have driven out all of the “old moderates.” Yes, the Republicans have their MTGs, but the Democrats have their AOCs. Both are equally destructive to the process.

I keep hearing about how disruptive Republican Mitch McGovern was as the Senate Majority Leader, but everyone seems to forget about Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who refused to allow a single proposed bill that was proposed or passed by a Republican House, to go to the Senate floor for a vote.

I’m really sick and tired of the extremely partisan comments and camouflaged attacks that are constantly being posted by Liberals and Conservatives on this supposedly neutral Forum Thread. How about everyone who is doing it, stop and consider whether whether or not the Left and Right Wing garbage they are Oh, is appropriate to this thread.

your attempt to play the both-siderism game is pathetic and shows an incredible amount of ignorance, both in historic and in current events.  What Gingerich did was completely unprecedented.  What McConnell did was completely unprecedented.  And Trump is off the charts for breaking both norms and laws.  ANd where on the left are the insane ones that are wielding power?   Where's the dem Matt Gaetz?  MTGreene?  American democracy is on the brink and it is due to one side and one side only.  Guess what --  Biden won't attempt to throw the country into a civil war to unlawfully try to cling to power.  Trump's been doing that for last 4 years, including a full on mob-coup attempt that left people dead.  So just WTF are you even talking about?  Clearly you've been watching Hannity or some other bull**** monger and now you are parroting their bulls--t.

So stop watching Fox & newsmax.  It makes you look like a damn fool.

Oh, and please respond by telling me how it's the dems fault the GOP held up UKR aid for 3 months.  Dems aint the ones on Putin's payroll.  

 

Edited April 22 by danfrodo

[kimbosbread]

If I’m Putin, I want to grab as much territory as possible, at whatever the short-term cost. Putin knows tanks + apcs likely won’t be of much use in defense, and is betting that mobiks and mines and trenches and drones will maintain the defensive, just like last year. The calculation he is making is that however costly it is to obtain this territory, it will be costlier for Ukraine to take it back. In addition, it is better to get this territory before US supplies arrive, making offense much costlier. Also, in order to reverse-Maidan, it needs to happen April-May-ish. With these conditions, he hopes to break Ukraine and the West’s will, and thus force negotiation or withdrawal of support.

The way his calculus fails (IOM) is as follows:

• Ukraine can maintain it’s attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure, crushing the Russia economy and logistics and thus the ability to attack
• Ukraine is able to mass sufficient drones to deny defense on a sufficiently large front (say 40km wide) that it is able to not only clear lanes through minefields, via drones or otherwise, but also clear trenches with minimal boots-in-trench.

[panzermartin]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The history develops by spiral %) Avdiivka-Chasiv Yar is "Russian Somme" ? 

Yes, who would have thought after 100 years , masses of infantry with gas masks , trenches, absent tanks and massive artillery. And godamn Rats! 

The only good thing out of this that hopefully the new CM will be infantry heavy and more focused In these tactics. No more all seeing killer tanks and APCs. 

All bow to the weary infantryman.

[Vet 0369]

On 4/20/2024 at 11:56 AM, LongLeftFlank said:

Plus ca change...

LOL, just like “Willy and Joe” in the Stars and Stripes, or “Sgt. Mike and Sledge” in the Navy Times!

[hcrof]

I think anyone asking Ukraine to rely on drones for victory has missed that the gap in drone use efficiency has closed considerably . They are still better but the Russians have got competent, and have greater numbers. 

Even if they crack drone autonomy I hope they are able to take advantage of it quick because the Russians might not be far behind. 

I believe the Ukrainian path to victory is now 100% on the russian home front, not victory on the battlefield. Unfortunately it won't be quick...

[FancyCat]

Quote

The Russians apparently threw the 27th MRD into the fray in the north of Avdiivka and gained ground in Ocheretyne. The developing situation might motivate the Russians to throw mechanized reserves into the fray. This might be the kick-off for the Russian spring offensive.

 

 

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

s using a crowd control irritant banned by something?

Yes. It is. Interestingly though, not necessarily for crowd control by law enforcement. In war, yes, it's banned.

Yeah, the training was fun.   Stay in the shed to prove your mask works, and then take off your mask to show what happens without the mask (I guess to prove that the mask really works and it wasn't just a harmless steam sauna). Got the message for sure.

Dave

[NamEndedAllen]

1 minute ago, Ultradave said:

In war, yes, it's banned.

Thanks for the background. So, does this add another war crime to the Russian list? Or are the reports insufficient for further legal investigation?

[JonS]

11 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Yes. It is. Interestingly though, not necessarily for crowd control by law enforcement. In war, yes, it's banned.

Yeah, the Geneva conventions (or, more relevant in this case, the Geneva protocol and tangentially the Hague conventions and the 1980 convention) are all about inter-state conflict.

What happens intra-state, between you and your local law enforcement body, is entirely a matter for you and your respective legislature to figure out. 'Geneva' doesn't care a whit.

(Multiple edits: bloody sbellçzech)

Edited April 22 by JonS

[Ultradave]

3 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Thanks for the background. So, does this add another war crime to the Russian list? Or are the reports insufficient for further legal investigation?

I guess it would if there's good evidence for it (sorry I'm not up to date on the reports, which is why I said 'if'). 

Dave

[Ultradave]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This OpEd is behind a paywall, but I think you can guess that it sums up the feelings of many here very well:

 

The article continues on with quotes from others and factual accounting of what's been going on while Johnson dithered.

Personally, I believe Johnson should get credit for finally doing the right thing.  He didn't have to or he could have waited even longer to do it.  Dems should reward him by voting down the resolution to have him removed.

There is some indication that Johnson had to learn the hard way that there's a difference between heckling the person in charge and being the person in charge.  He simply wasn't prepared for that transition and it took him months to get his bearings.  If he was a stronger man with a better mindset going into the job I'm sure things would have been much better.  But he wasn't and so it is what it is.

If Johnson can work towards undoing the damage he and his former MAGA associates (there's never friendship in radical movements) have brought about, then I think the country is better off with him than any of the alternatives until after the elections.  Perhaps even better than Jeffries, simply because if he is in then 100% of the GOP will work lockstep to oppose EVERYTHING.

Steve

If I did this right, I gifted the article and it gave me a gift link (I think), for those who want to read it. If it doesn't work for you PM me and I'll try to get it right.

https://wapo.st/3vZhk1f

Dave

[FancyCat]

Quote

“The package DOD is working on now will be significantly larger than the most recent tranche of $300 million…it would include armored vehicles; a fourth person said additional Bradley Fighting Vehicles would be part of the shipment. Older Humvees and M113 armored personnel carriers, as well as missiles, are also expected to be in the package…it will also include artillery and air defenses.”

 

Edited April 22 by FancyCat

[Vanir Ausf B]

I'm curious to see if there will be any more M1 tanks in this package. 5 of the original 31 have been lost.