How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, Sojourner said:

Nope, no straddling involved, that's firmly on the insane side of the line.

Now, a robot dog that cleans up after your live dog, that would be genius.

Guess it depends on point of view.  I want about 100 of these to walk over a minefield and then burn anything that resembles a Russian ATGMs in a 5km bridgehead while FPVs hammer anything that runs away from the flames.  Toss in some EW and a dash of c-bty and one might have the makings for a breaching op that goes somewhere.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Sequoia said:

How much better will this be (if any) over current equipment?

Three things about this system, it indicates defense contractors are really working on quadcopter based mine detection, which is a very good thing. The system shown is also a really nifty automated mortar. You are still looking at a LOT of ordinance to clear a lane in minefields the size and density the Russians are laying in Ukraine. 

My first take is that it might make more sense to have a drone deposit the approximate equivalent of a DPICM submunition, rather than using the mortar, but this would need detailed analysis of the rate at which each system can take out mines, and how vulnerable it is to being killed while doing so.

Edited April 24 by dan/california

[Sojourner]

52 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Guess it depends on point of view.  I want about 100 of these to walk over a minefield and then burn anything that resembles a Russian ATGMs in a 5km bridgehead while FPVs hammer anything that runs away from the flames.  Toss in some EW and a dash of c-bty and one might have the makings for a breaching op that goes somewhere.

OK, that is a genius application, but from the PoV of a homeowner in a wildfire-prone area, it's pretty damn insane.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

OK, that is a genius application, but from the PoV of a homeowner in a wildfire-prone area, it's pretty damn insane.

Sanity is optional, you need look no further than the RFK jr campaign....

[kimbosbread]

Flamethrower dogs are cool, but I think the minaturization of flying drones is undervalued in terms of a terror weapon the battlefield. I wonder if we could go quite a bit smaller, maybe not mosquito sized but certainly a quarter or less the size of one of the DJI minis, and put a very small warhead on it, maybe thermite, maybe connected rod.

I’m thinking 5-10g HE (plus some aluminum powder) and a coil of magnesium wire around it, and do machine vision based crotch dection. You could call it “The Eunuch Maker”.

EDIT: Or if small enough, land on a soldier or vehicle and deposit a radio beacon.

Edited April 24 by kimbosbread

[MSBoxer]

29 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Sanity is optional, you need look no further than the RFK jr campaign

It is comments like this, which pull in politics for no related reason without fear of retribution that lead some of our members to believe that there are different rules depending on which side of the aisle you sit.  

I am not a fan of any of the candidates we have, but I have to wonder if the results would be the same if the post referenced Biden's supposed dementia?

Edited April 24 by MSBoxer

[pugstorm]

54 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

OK, that is a genius application, but from the PoV of a homeowner in a wildfire-prone area, it's pretty damn insane.

Yeah I can see this going well (the trespasser is toasted but your now responsible for the biggest bushfire in your state) that would be a fun legal case.

[Beleg85]

 

[Sojourner]

47 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

 

I really wish they wouldn't do that. The only one that needs to be informed is Syrskyi. Let the Russians find out the hard way. I understand "public right to know", but there's no need to get into specifics. FFS stuff from WWII was kept secret for 50 years in the US, long after it was obsolete and of no intelligence value.

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

and US aid is back on track for now

[fireship4]

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Dear Gawd

St. Bernard's fire...

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, MSBoxer said:

I am not a fan of any of the candidates we have, but I have to wonder if the results would be the same if the post referenced Biden's supposed dementia?

To be fair, Trump also definitely has some dementia going on. RFK though, well, I see his campaign (and his likely role as a spoiler) as definitive proof that we’ve entered an alternate timeline that is far more entertaining and ridiculous than the regular one. But we weren’t going to go to Mars in the regular one, so it’s win win all around I think.

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, Sojourner said:

I really wish they wouldn't do that.

I don’t get it either, unless the idea is to get the Russians to turn around and stop the war, which I understand but is obviously pretty stupid. Can someone who spends more time around modern governments shed light on this?

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, MSBoxer said:

It is comments like this, which pull in politics for no related reason without fear of retribution that lead some of our members to believe that there are different rules depending on which side of the aisle you sit. 

Yeah, drive by snipes that aren't connected to anything aren't really productive.  If I think they are at least reasonably accurate I just ignore them.  For example, saying Trump is pro-Russian or RFK Jr. is crazy can be supported by a factual discussion.  Saying Biden is a Socialist is just a political talking point with no connection to reality.

Similarly, I have no problem with people slamming obvious tools of the Russian state.  People like Greene should be called out as, at best, a "useful idiot".  Calling Greene's grasp of reality into question is also factually supportable.

Sadly, all three candidates for US President have cognitive problems that are clearly evident.  The difference is at the best moments, only one of them makes any lick of sense when it comes to supporting a Western style "rules based order" (generally) and US position within it (specifically).  The other two oppose it actively and vociferously.  Because I don't have a 4th choice, I'm going to vote for the one that at least makes sense most of the time.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

and US aid is back on track for now

Sadly, the caveat "for now" has to be kept in mind.

OK, so aid will start flowing to Ukraine on Wednesday of this week.  I've seen some reporting out there claiming the stuff won't get into Ukraine's hands for weeks or months.  Poppycock   That wasn't true even when Russia was in its initial attack phase.  Stuff started showing up RIGHT AWAY and that was all improvised.  So no way is that going to happen this time around.

The most important thing the US has to send Ukraine are replacement AD missiles.  There are only a few points for these to head to and the logistics hurdles between them are VERY small.  At lest for an immediate influx.  I'm guessing by this weekend Ukraine's AD forces will already have an improved situation.

Artillery shells isn't quite as easy.  To move hundreds of thousands of shells into the frontlines will take time.  Fortunately, they don't need hundreds of thousands of shells to start making a difference.  Even getting a few thousand to a couple of key places could make a big difference.  And that's the sort of thing that could happen within days.

HIMARS type artillery is more like the AD stuff.  Ukraine only has a few of these systems and the number of missiles they need to increase their impact on the battlefield is very small.  Especially if the first ones they receive have a 300km range.  As I suggested a few pages ago, this allows Ukraine to effectively put its HIMARS systems out of harm's way while still being able to hit any target within Ukraine's borders.  Popping them off at the Kerch Bridge wouldn't be my top priority right now because the real threat is coming in the Donbas which doesn't use the bridge at all.

To summarize... more Russian things go boom within days, not weeks or months.

Steve

[Holien]

Hmmm he has not fallen out of a window? 

"Russian deputy defence minister detained for allegedly taking bribes"

Power struggles at the top?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68886406

Quite unusual for corruption charges to be laid against a top table player.

Maybe for mass consumption? 

Edited April 24 by Holien

[chrisl]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

Three things about this system, it indicates defense contractors are really working on quadcopter based mine detection, which is a very good thing. The system shown is also a really nifty automated mortar. You are still looking at a LOT of ordinance to clear a lane in minefields the size and density the Russians are laying in Ukraine. 

My first take is that it might make more sense to have a drone deposit the approximate equivalent of a DPICM submunition, rather than using the mortar, but this would need detailed analysis of the rate at which each system can take out mines, and how vulnerable it is to being killed while doing so.

Yeah, basically stick a little primer shell onto each mine with a cheap timer or some kind of short range remote control trigger.  

[Battlefront.com]

I know that US mass media often falls short of keeping a consistent and fair assessment of the war, and we are justifiably critical of that, but we should also recognize that they have been very consistent and accurate about Russia's threat to the West generally.  This article from a few days ago in the NY Times is about Kremlin directed attacks against people living in the West:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/19/world/europe/russia-zelensky-navalny-poland-arrests.html

It also seems to indicate that some European countries, at a minimum, are FINALLY taking this long standing Kremlin practice seriously.  I guess that's what happens when politicians are no longer routinely on Russia's "payroll" as they once were.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I guess that's what happens when politicians are no longer routinely on Russia's "payroll" as they once were.

If we get access to the new KGB archives, it will be very interesting to see which politicians and parties were directly supported. I think we can safely guess some of them, but I bet there would be some interesting surprises.

[Battlefront.com]

Oh this is good... apparently Hunter Biden is now responsible for the theater terrorist attack because Burisma organized it.  This according to Moscow.  Be ready for the hardcore MAGA folks, like Greene, to start repeating this nonsense:

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/4617540-dont-buy-moscows-shameless-campaign-tying-biden-to-its-terrorist-attack/

Steve

[mosuri]

9 hours ago, Holien said:

Hmmm he has not fallen out of a window? 

"Russian deputy defence minister detained for allegedly taking bribes"

Power struggles at the top?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68886406

Quite unusual for corruption charges to be laid against a top table player.

Maybe for mass consumption? 

Court politics -- everyone is corrupt, but it's only made an issue for those that are to be removed.

Someone wants to be rid of him, and he doesn't have a protector.

[cesmonkey]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3754238/biden-administration-announces-significant-new-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Quote

This Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package has an estimated value of $1 billion and includes capabilities to support Ukraine's most urgent requirements, including air defense interceptors, artillery rounds, armored vehicles, and anti-tank weapons. 

The capabilities in this announcement include:

• RIM-7 and AIM-9M missiles for air defense;
• Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
• Small arms and additional rounds of small arms ammunition, including .50 caliber rounds to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS);
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 155mm artillery rounds, including High Explosive and Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions rounds;
• 105mm artillery rounds;  
• 60mm mortar rounds;
• Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
• Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs);
• High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
• Logistics support vehicles;
• Tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
• Precision aerial munitions; 
• Airfield support equipment;
• Anti-armor mines;
• Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
• Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
• Night vision devices; and
• Spare parts, field equipment, training munitions, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.

This package will surge munitions, weapons, and equipment forward to support Ukraine's ability to defend its frontlines, protect its cities, and counter Russia's continued attacks. With the bipartisan support of Congress, Ukraine can count on strong and resolute U.S. leadership to provide consistent security assistance support – together with some 50 Allies and partners – to ensure its brave defenders receive the critical capabilities needed to fight Russian aggression. 

 

[FancyCat]

Huh. props to Biden and co. on the secret. Let's get those Tartus moving now Scholz.

Quote

Ukrainian forces have used the long-range missiles twice, first against a Russian military base in Crimea and more recently against Russian forces east of Berdyansk near the Sea of Azov, the senior administration official said.

The U.S. was initially reluctant to send ATACMS — even under sustained domestic and international pressure — due to stockpile concerns and fear of escalating the war. But Russia’s increasingly brutal tactics and more American production of the long-range version convinced Biden to authorize the transfer.

The Biden administration warned Russia that attacking Ukraine’s energy grid and using North Korean-provided missiles would lead the U.S. to reconsider sending ATACMS to Ukraine. Those strikes continued, leading top officials — national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. Brown — to unanimously recommend the weapons transfer.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/us-long-range-missiles-ukraine-00154110

Quote

According to Politico, the US approved the delivery of 300-kilometer range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in March, which Ukraine has already employed twice. Additional 300-km range ATACMS will be included in the new aid package signed today. @alexbward

 

Edited April 24 by FancyCat

[The_Capt]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sadly, the caveat "for now" has to be kept in mind.

OK, so aid will start flowing to Ukraine on Wednesday of this week.  I've seen some reporting out there claiming the stuff won't get into Ukraine's hands for weeks or months.  Poppycock   That wasn't true even when Russia was in its initial attack phase.  Stuff started showing up RIGHT AWAY and that was all improvised.  So no way is that going to happen this time around.

The most important thing the US has to send Ukraine are replacement AD missiles.  There are only a few points for these to head to and the logistics hurdles between them are VERY small.  At lest for an immediate influx.  I'm guessing by this weekend Ukraine's AD forces will already have an improved situation.

Artillery shells isn't quite as easy.  To move hundreds of thousands of shells into the frontlines will take time.  Fortunately, they don't need hundreds of thousands of shells to start making a difference.  Even getting a few thousand to a couple of key places could make a big difference.  And that's the sort of thing that could happen within days.

HIMARS type artillery is more like the AD stuff.  Ukraine only has a few of these systems and the number of missiles they need to increase their impact on the battlefield is very small.  Especially if the first ones they receive have a 300km range.  As I suggested a few pages ago, this allows Ukraine to effectively put its HIMARS systems out of harm's way while still being able to hit any target within Ukraine's borders.  Popping them off at the Kerch Bridge wouldn't be my top priority right now because the real threat is coming in the Donbas which doesn't use the bridge at all.

To summarize... more Russian things go boom within days, not weeks or months.

Steve

I would not be surprised to see that stuff was preposition in Poland waiting for the bill to pass.  The President does not meet Congressional approval to push US military anywhere and I would be surprised if DoD was not directed to “lean forward”

What is really interesting is the ATACMs.  If the US is releasing the really long range stuff then it is also very likely providing the C4ISR and targeting support to the UA for those systems.  That is an escalation and a very clear signal.  It may also explain the whole “hey Ukraine wanna lay off Russian oil industry” narrative that popped up. I am pretty sure the US is not onboard with those missiles shredding the Russian oil industry.

[poesel]

About the influence of Russia & China into German politics: both the number 1 & 2 for the upcoming vote for the EU parliament of our local fascist party AfD are under the suspicion of taking Russian money. Additionally, the head of the office of #1 has been detained for being a Chinese spy.
And people still vote for them: they get about 15-30% (depending on state). If we had only two parties, I guess the political landscape wouldn't be much different than in the US.