How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

34 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Seems the world is too desensitized and busy with other crises to notice Russia blow up active energy and communication infrastructure of two NATO countries.

I'm just waiting to see the same arguments as to why Ukraine did NS2 applied to this attack.  "Ukraine gains the most", "Ukraine has the capability to do it", "Russia has nothing to gain from this", etc.  Then all we need are a couple of Slavic speaking guys renting a boat using Ukrainian identification to make it a perfect fit.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

There are early reports of hevay Russian attacks on Avdiivka today.

Meanwhile, such situation of Russian armoured column trying to reinforce the push...to be fair to them, it seems this time engineers were drunk rather than crewmen. Bridge looks very narrow.

I think this is a good video to demonstrate something we don't talk enough about here... the degrading of Russia's ability to effectively use the things that Ukraine hasn't yet blown up.  Or put another way, the true cost of inadequate training to start with and high attrition levels minimizing how many survive learning while on the job.

Videos like these could come from any nation at any time as screwing up is not specific to Russia.  But really... shouldn't we be expecting this sort of thing?  Shouldn't we expect friendly fire downing aircraft over friendly territory?  Shouldn't we expect to see soldiers shooting and tossing grenades at each other (by accident, not to mention on purpose)?  I think we should.  It's really impossible for Russia to have crap training and high casualties without there being obvious signs of it on the battlefield.

My point is that sometimes we see something in a video that is not representational of the whole.  But there's also the chance that we see something in a video that under represents the whole.  I think a video like the above bridge crossing is more likely to be the tip of an iceberg than it is a floating chunk of ice.

Steve

[JonS]

4 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

(hence being set in Seattle, which is relatively near Forks)?

I've been to Forks. I even spent the night there.

Never again.

Edit: dinner in La Push was well worth the drive though.

Edited October 10, 2023 by JonS

[TheVulture]

I believe this is a new aid package from Germany

 

[Jr Buck Private]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

So much to say about this short clip.  One of which is that they'll never get the spent casing out, so this was a one time "fix".

Steve

I was kinda hoping for a big explosion at the end, oh well ....  I overestimated their abilities I guess.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Jr Buck Private said:

I was kinda hoping for a big explosion at the end, oh well ....  I overestimated their abilities I guess.

It is quite possible we didn't get the tape of this rocket being fired because it detonated in the tube and obliterated anyone with fifty meters.

[Carolus]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

You had me at brandy & cigars bro, but you kind of lost me after that.

I'm not at all in the space of 'the cynical West, fighting to the last Ukrainian', which is a tankie favourite.

I hope that there is no misunderstanding, I don't think that either.

I also don't think that the Russian Army will suddenly go on a successful offensive campaign again.

The West isn't "planning" to fight to the last Ukrainian.

The West was simply asleep, dreaming a wonderful dream of wallstreet dollars and IPhones, and the Ukraine War is an alarm clock, and the West simply wants to slowly roll onto its side again. 

Not out of evil, or cynicism or a cynical plan to use Ukraine against Russia.

But simply because it is just damn inconvenient

It is inconvenient to think about values and principles and the global order.

Combine that with the new whatever-it's-called... international network of neo-populist movement - signal boosted to a health ypart by Russia and China - successfully convincing 10 to 30% of the Western population that Putin is actually a much cooler, manlier, more legitimate, smarter, more rational, more visionary head of governement who actually dares to be politically incorrect, that magnificent bastard and... did you notice, aren't Jews getting a suspicious amount of Nobel Prices anyway? And have you heard about the latest vaccination scam by Soros?

And you can see that less than half of the Western population actually embody what makes the West, well, the West. And only a part of that are actually willing to defend it through the mildest economic inconvenience.

And that's how you get to 18 months of the most brutal war Europe has seen in decades and the German government announcing "The new global situation has made it clear that defence spending and security has to be a main focus of our efforts. That is why we will reach the 2% defence spending goal of NATO probably in 2038. Pinky promise! Let us just quickly sell some vital infrastructure to China and invite them to build our future communication network."

To Switzerland happily selling diamonds mined by Russian Wagner mercs. To Hungary vetoing an EU ammunitions program. To an American congress that uses deadlocks for internal gains during global crises. To Austrian politicians stating "While we condemn the war, at least Putin knows how to handle the gays, am I right fellas?"

Less than half is not large enough of a group to make consistent foreign policy decisions in a democracy over a longer span of time. That is the danger.

The Ukraine response is just a symptom of a much larger crisis.

Things never end with a bang, they only look that way in retrospect in the history books. It is always a slow whimper.

But enough from me on that. If responses or disagreements to this post appear, I promise to read them thoroughly, but I won't respond in this thread. My personal views on global sociopolitical trends are not related enough to Ukraine to fit into this thread.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Carolus said:

I hope that there is no misunderstanding, I don't think that either.

I also don't think that the Russian Army will suddenly go on a successful offensive campaign again.

The West isn't "planning" to fight to the last Ukrainian.

The West was simply asleep, dreaming a wonderful dream of wallstreet dollars and IPhones, and the Ukraine War is an alarm clock, and the West simply wants to slowly roll onto its side again. 

Not out of evil, or cynicism or a cynical plan to use Ukraine against Russia.

But simply because it is just damn inconvenient

It is inconvenient to think about values and principles and the global order.

Combine that with the new whatever-it's-called... international network of neo-populist movement - signal boosted to a health ypart by Russia and China - successfully convincing 10 to 30% of the Western population that Putin is actually a much cooler, manlier, more legitimate, smarter, more rational, more visionary head of governement who actually dares to be politically incorrect, that magnificent bastard and... did you notice, aren't Jews getting a suspicious amount of Nobel Prices anyway? And have you heard about the latest vaccination scam by Soros?

And you can see that less than half of the Western population actually embody what makes the West, well, the West. And only a part of that are actually willing to defend it through the mildest economic inconvenience.

And that's how you get to 18 months of the most brutal war Europe has seen in decades and the German government announcing "The new global situation has made it clear that defence spending and security has to be a main focus of our efforts. That is why we will reach the 2% defence spending goal of NATO probably in 2038. Pinky promise! Let us just quickly sell some vital infrastructure to China and invite them to build our future communication network."

To Switzerland happily selling diamonds mined by Russian Wagner mercs. To Hungary vetoing an EU ammunitions program. To an American congress that uses deadlocks for internal gains during global crises. To Austrian politicians stating "While we condemn the war, at least Putin knows how to handle the gays, am I right fellas?"

Less than half is not large enough of a group to make consistent foreign policy decisions in a democracy over a longer span of time. That is the danger.

The Ukraine response is just a symptom of a much larger crisis.

Things never end with a bang, they only look that way in retrospect in the history books. It is always a slow whimper.

But enough from me on that. If responses or disagreements to this post appear, I promise to read them thoroughly, but I won't respond in this thread. My personal views on global sociopolitical trends are not related enough to Ukraine to fit into this thread.

[Haiduk]

Avdiivka after next strike. Reportedly the city in fire and smoke, Russians try to hit all mulistorey buildings in the city

Both UKR and RUS point out unprecedented level of artillery and MLRS strikes, a wall of fire, not seen since summer 2022. Russian milblogegrs with triumph shouting "Here where all our shells! Likely they were gathered here from all front sectors!" 

UKR soldiers told about just enormous number of Russian infantry, that's imagimation allegedly almost  all reservers were thrown here. I even think maybe Russian offensive on Kupiansk and Lyman direction are bogus actions and real heavy strike Russians made on Avdiivka direction

UKR sources refuted Russian claims that they captured Berdychi village and claimed we repelled five heavy attcks. Reportedly only for this day Russians lost 10 tanks. About hour ago was a claim about Russian jet was shot down, but no confirmation. Russian aviation today acted with completely impunity - alas, it's usual thing for Avdiivka direction.  

Backbone of Avdiivka defense is 110th mech.brigade and 129th TDF brigade of Kryvyi Rih city  - they are on northern flank and the city itself; and 53rd mech.brigade on southern flank. Also one separate rifle battalion, 501st marines battalion of 36th marines brigade and mobile groups of "Omega" National Gurd special force brigade and groups of 3rd SOF regiment. Against them - multiple number of mobiks motor-rifle regiments and DPR units. 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[Lethaface]

On 10/7/2023 at 9:16 AM, cesmonkey said:

Somber post about the daunting task still facing Ukrainian forces:

 

I don't think it's really somber, it's just realistic. 

FWIW at times I was probably also over-hopeful regarding the 'offensive', in part because it looked like that Russia was lacking ATGMs / AT assets, the obstacle belt was being ridiculed and defensive coordination / morale seemed lackluster at the time Russia / Wagner was grinding in Bakhmut.

The first days of the counter offensive, before we even knew whether it had really started, already showed that the mine belts combined with drone observation / coordinated fires and deep AT assets were a serious issue and not easily overcome without heavy casualties. 

So, did the offensive fail? That depends where you hold the bar. If you hold it at our unrealistic expectations, then yes it failed. However accounting for the reality on the ground I'm not sure it failed. There is always room for improvement and probably Ukraine made enough mistakes, but as long as they keep learning and maintain their will and capability to fight... 
Is that a failure or is that progress / learning on the job? 

If only for those reasons I expected Ukraine to choose Bakhmut as the main effort (after the first mine belt + artillery / Ka-52 interactions), because the (mostly) Wagner forces who achieved the 'success' there were sort of spend and new units, probably mobiks, would have to hold the line which they didn't have time to really fortify as they did with all the other directions. Plus defeating Wagner would destroy the myth.

A couple of months later and Wagner was indeed destroyed but not necessarily by Ukraine :D. I guess nobody could have really predicted what happened. 

That brings me back to whether or not the offensive failed. If one had a neutral expectation, I don't think it really failed. It surely could have gone better but also could have gone a lot worse. 
So we can all relearn the lesson to keep expectations low; or rather expect the worst but hope for the best. That's not being cynical, just being realistic 

And like most/all of us expected, this war won't be over even if Ukraine manages to push Russia back to pre-22 borders. So what they can't manage to push Russia back to pre-22 borders in '23? The war wouldn't been over anyway.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Lethaface

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Tolkien was something close seer.

[Carolus]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Both UKR and RUS point out unprecedented level of artillery and MLRS strikes, a wall of fire, not seen since summer 2022. Russian milblogegrs with triumph shouting "Here where all our shells! Likely they were gathered here from all front sectors!" 

Interesting.

Observing what Russia is willing to invest here and for how long could be an indicator of their material reserves. 

Strange that the attack seems to consist of mobiks and DPR (which are either the better volunteer units or even worsely treated mobiks which were attached to them), since a lot of people expressed that only Russia's more elite troops could do effective offensive movement. 

I think Ukraine can defend better than Russia. If the artillery hellfire doesnt hold on, these sort of attacks can help reduce the Russian force generation.

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Avdiivka after next strike. Reportedly the city in fire and smoke, Russians try to hit all mulistorey buildings in the city

Both UKR and RUS point out unprecedented level of artillery and MLRS strikes, a wall of fire, not seen since summer 2022. Russian milblogegrs with triumph shouting "Here where all our shells! Likely they were gathered here from all front sectors!" 

UKR soldiers told about just enormous number of Russian infantry, that's imagimation allegedly almost  all reservers were thrown here. I even think maybe Russian offensive on Kupiansk and Lyman direction are bogus actions and real heavy strike Russians made on Avdiivka direction

UKR sources refuted Russian claims that they captured Berdychi village and claimed we repelled five heavy attcks. Reportedly only for this day Russians lost 10 tanks. About hour ago clains about Russian het was shot down, but no confirmation. Russian aviation today acted with completely impunity - alas, it's usual thing for Avdiivka direction.  

Backbone of Avdiivka defense is 110th mech.brigade and 129th TDF brigade of Kryvyi Rih city  - they are on northern flank and the city itself; and 53rd mech.brigade on southern flank. Also one separate rifle battalion, 501st marines battalion of 36th marines brigade and mobile groups of "Omega" National Gurd special force brigade and groups of 3rd SOF regiment. Against them - multiple number of mobiks motor-rifle regiments and DPR units. 

Russia is going all in for a propaganda victory to shake at the world, along with the Hamas thing. Hopefully what they will get will be a lot of casualties, and a counter attack. They clearly cleared routes for their attack, maybe Ukraine can follow them right back through their own mine fields.

[LongLeftFlank]

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Is 'meming like a mofo from my couch' a legit use of 'the time that is given us', O Mithrandir?

Asking for a fiend....

***

P.S. I think Carolus has politely said you may be a guest of the Club, with the cigars and the overstuffed armchairs. And the map table.

[sburke]

1 minute ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Is 'meming like a mofo from my couch' a legit use of 'the time that is given us', O Mithrandir?

Asking for a fiend....

***

P.S. I think Carolus has politely said you may be a guest of the Club, with the cigars and the overstuffed armchairs. And the map table.

I just want to know what this all has to do with Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift. That, it seems, is the real news.

[LongLeftFlank]

Just now, sburke said:

I just want to know what this all has to do with Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift. That, it seems, is the real news.

...Well, I got no response at all to my earlier reference to Beyoncé in biker leathers, so I wouldn't hold out much hope.

[Vanir Ausf B]

29 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

So, did the offensive fail? That depends where you hold the bar. If you hold it at our unrealistic expectations, then yes it failed. However accounting for the reality on the ground I'm not sure it failed.

The offensive isn't over so it's too early to judge. Having said that, the most fair bar to measure against is the one the Ukrainians are holding themselves to:

The general (Tarnavsky) conceded that for the counteroffensive to be a success, Ukrainian forces need to at least reach the city of Tokmak.

“Tokmak is the minimum goal,” he said. “The overall objective is to get to our state borders.”

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/23/europe/ukraine-biggest-counteroffensive-to-come-intl-hnk/index.html

[Lethaface]

13 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

The offensive isn't over so it's too early to judge. Having said that, the most fair bar to measure against is the one the Ukrainians are holding themselves to:

The general (Tarnavsky) conceded that for the counteroffensive to be a success, Ukrainian forces need to at least reach the city of Tokmak.

“Tokmak is the minimum goal,” he said. “The overall objective is to get to our state borders.”

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/23/europe/ukraine-biggest-counteroffensive-to-come-intl-hnk/index.html

I agree that it is too early too judge. And while it is fair to hold them to their own stated objectives, that's one general saying something to the media. Sometimes some people (feel they) need to communicate expectations, even when those with their boots in the actual mud have different expectations or rather no expectations whatsoever; they just do or die.

[The_Capt]

46 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Is 'meming like a mofo from my couch' a legit use of 'the time that is given us', O Mithrandir?

Asking for a fiend....

***

P.S. I think Carolus has politely said you may be a guest of the Club, with the cigars and the overstuffed armchairs. And the map table.

Gotta have a big globe with a bar inside it.  Turkey Thursdays.  And on Fri we pay hobos to fight each other for nickels. 

[Seedorf81]

4 hours ago, mosuri said:

There wasn't much reaction to the Svalbard comms cable incident either last year

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/02/unknown-human-activity-behind-svalbard-cable-disruption

Should always remember that quip Lenin made about bayonets when dealing with Russia. Push back with steel when they probe.

Dutch journalist visited Svalbard recently..

Svalbard/Spitzbergen has a population of about 2500 souls, Norwegian mostly, but there are about 350 Russians there. And about a year or so ago their consul was replaced by a figure that is being deemed an FSB-officer. And for the first time ever a Russian parade was held. (Believe it or not, about 5-10 trucks and about 20 snowscooters, all waving a huge Russian flag. Absolutely ridiculous.) And a Russian orthodox priest was flown in to bless a newly erected statue/momument/thingy that has Russian Nationalist "meaning".

Non-Russian inhabitants fear increasing trouble with/from the Russians and worry seriously about the total lack of Nato/Western security/military presence(!). Also a very unusual flight from a plane with 50 or so Russian "workers" was scheduled to arrive shortly.

Also noted was the change in behaviour from the Russians that worked/lived there after the arrival of that new FSB-consul. No more interactions with the Norwegians, and staying mostly in the Russian enclave.

Was that cable-disruption coincedental?? Don't think so.

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Seedorf81

[Lethaface]

On 10/7/2023 at 5:39 PM, Haiduk said:

Why such noble mission wasn't offered to Russia? Now these "old USSR stocks" Kh-55 and Kh-22 fly to us back, our Scud missiles  were utilized too and we begging for long-range weapon to reach Russian strategic objects.

We were forced to sign different limitations on number of usual weapon, what moved it out of service.  Hundreds of tanks, IFVs, jets, helicopters were stored and gave wide field of weapon business for corupted officials to sell all this "extra" staff to Africa, Asia and Middle East. 

We were forced to utilize all "extra" MANPADS "in order to exclude risks that terrorists will get it" - and during 12 years we utilized 1000 MANPADS, as well as 1,5 millions of small-arms. And continued to do it even in 2015! 

We were forced to sign agreement do not develop missile weapon with a range over 500 km.

We were forced to sign Ottawa Convention and utilize all AP mines except claymors and OZM.

So, how, has the world became safer after we "got rid of old Soviet weapon" in change on toilet paper of Budapesht Memorandum? 

 

Directly - nothing. Tangentially - yes. 

No need to bomb Moscow. War is money. No money - no war. Bad taste is cowardice and venality of many western political and economical elites, bad tatse to buy Russian resourses and bypass own sanctions, selling them equipment and electronic. Bad taste are families of Russian officilas flying to Europe free for shopping. This "real politic" is bad taste and ugly hypocrisy at all. So, if West will be go on in such way, yes, I will say, you deserve. 

"Capitalists themselves will sell us a rope on which we will hang them" (C) Vladimir Lenin. Despite he was a commi, his words exactly about this situation. 

I think there is some translation lost in space here. But if we manage to 'force' you to give your rope to Russia, in return for our money, do you deserve to hang from it? 

In hindsight we can all look into the cows arse :D. 
Yes the West have made mistakes, and still do. What is even 'the West'? Not everyone in the West has same opinion. For example, while I think Hamas are barbaric terrorists (as shown recently), in my opinion Israel isn't that far off from being a terrorist state. And I know there's not that many people in the West agreeing with me.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Gotta have a big globe with a bar inside it.  Turkey Thursdays.  And on Fri we pay hobos to fight each other for nickels. 

["Don't forget to turn off the globe!"]

[quakerparrot67]

49 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

["Don't forget to turn off the globe!"]

have they found his neck yet?

 

cheers,

rob

[Lethaface]

On 10/8/2023 at 3:32 PM, Haiduk said:

I respect Lindsey Graham for his honesty, when he explained why West support Ukraine.

And one usual American, who wrote in twitter almost the same "each of us paid 14$ of our taxes to see how Russian army will be destroyed without any losses of our soldiers"

Big countries or their allinces can smile each other and talk about cooperation for peace, but in real struggle for influence and resources has not gone anyway. And big countries conduct hidden game for this influence and resources. And if in 19th and 20th centuries this achieved mostly by military force, that now much more economical and information levereges to this. I bet US always wanted declining of Russia and China as well as China and Russia want declining of USA. Russia just brutally violated the order of this "big club". Even not because they invaded the large European country, which created many risks (millions of refugees, grain export, nuclear plants security etc), but because Putin jumped directly on the West, choosing Ukraine as "whipping boy" to scare westren elites and trade more appropriate place (on his opinion) of Russia in world order. You can recall demands of Putin before invasion. Most of them were adressed to West and NATO, not to Ukraine. He demanded that NATO turned back to 1997 borders. So, "big dudes" just took advantage to knock Russia down if they in so stupid way gave an occasion to do this. 

It's a luck for us that among large number of western elites was understanding like of Lindsey Graham. So, yes, you support us because "we tried to build a world where nations were not permitted to do what Russia is doing right now" and you support us as proxie force to weaken Russia in order to their behavior will not be "story of success" for other "big players". Because after Russian defeat western companies hipothetically can get partial or even full control over Russian resourse-mining companies. Because now you investing in own security and keep lives of own soldiers and civilians, which with big probability will not go to defend Taiwan, Israel or Southern Korea if Russia losses. So all talks about "democracy", "values" and "support of independent nation" leave for TV-shows for electorate. We are not against to be western proxies in global fight for influence, because this gives opportunity to defeat our ethernal enemy. We are weapon in your hands. So use it properly and decisively without hesitations 

I think this is a very limited perspective which is mainly made for internal USA consumption. The average USA voter probably believed Kiev / Ukraine was  a Russian province before the '22 invasion. They need some convincing as to why they are involved in this war.
While 'real politik' is real, it's not the sole thing that makes the world turn. Plus it comes in many layers and perspectives.  

FWIW I know for certain that the 'big dude' (there is only USA, no other big dudes) being unhappy was nor is the sole reason my country supports Ukraine. Nor is MH-17 the sole reason. I think the same can be said for most other European countries.

If in the end there is any 'sole' reason it is that ultimately 'we' realized, after plenty of broken words and promises and being on the receiving end of unwelcome unvaselined sticks inserted to our cavities, that Russia's regime is and will be a bunch of conniving corrupt bastiges who will do over anyone anywhere as long as they get a gain from it; and kill anyone standing in their way.
We might have been a bit late coming to that conclusion, but now we have arrived at it we are stubbornly sticking to it until 'real politik' forces us to do different.

For what it is worth I think the average Dutch voter wouldn't want Ukraine to fight a proxy war on our behalf. We are not dying; if Ukraine doesn't want to die for it's own existence, than let us make money off the Russians. 'We' were refining a good chunk of their raw resources / half fabricates and selling the end product back to them at good profit. 

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

If the artillery hellfire doesnt hold on, these sort of attacks can help reduce the Russian force generation.

I gotta imagine those batteries are easy to spot for Ukraine and receive some HIMARS loving, unless there’s so much aviation that this is not safe to do.