How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

On 5/26/2023 at 10:33 PM, sburke said:

better not, it is my freakin birthday!

Cool, a Yankee Doodle Dandy!

[sburke]

Mercenary Prigozhin says Kremlin blanking him on state media will provoke backlash (yahoo.com)

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's most powerful mercenary said on Sunday he was convinced that senior Kremlin officials had banned reporting about him on state media, cautioning that such a misleading approach would lead to a backlash from the Russian people within months.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner mercenary group, is the most striking member of President Vladimir Putin's circle to gain widespread notoriety in the 15-month war in Ukraine.

Prigozhin, a restaurateur who quipped last week that his nickname should be "Putin's butcher" rather than "Putin's chef", took the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut earlier this month but his role in the victory was played down on state television.

The 61-year-old has made a name for himself by imposing brutal discipline on his mercenaries and by using obscene language and prison slang to insult Putin's top military brass including Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

In a sign of just how far Prigozhin is perceived to have breached the taboos of Putin's Russia, state television ignored the fall of Bakhmut for 20 hours, and did not air Prigozhin's victory speech.

Asked about what appeared to be a ban on coverage of him on state media, Prigozhin used a series of Russian proverbs to poke fun at those responsible: "What is forbidden is always sweeter."

"Wagner is not a piece of slippery soap which the bureaucrats have got used to shoving all over the place; Wagner is an awl, a stiletto that you cannot hide," Prigozhin said. "I am absolutely convinced they have forbidden (coverage)."

"That high-level bureaucrats, those very towers of the Kremlin, are trying to shut the mouths of everyone so that they don't speak about Wagner will only give another shove to the people."

Such an approach, he said, would provoke a backlash from the Russian people.

"In the long term - long term is two or three months - they will receive a finger-slap from the people for trying to shut everyone's mouths and ears," Prigozhin said.

The Kremlin and the defence ministry have ignored Prigozhin's outbursts, which appear to break the rules of the tightly controlled political system crafted by Putin since he won the top job in the Kremlin on the last day of 1999.

The Kremlin, which did not respond to a request for comment, says all the aims of the "special military operation" in Ukraine will be achieved despite what it says is a proxy-war being waged by the West against it.

After Prigozhin claimed victory on Bakhmut, it took the Kremlin 10 hours to release a 36-word statement congratulating Wagner and armed forces units for "liberating" Artyomovsk, the Soviet-era name for Bakhmut used by Russia. It did not name Prigozhin.

Prigozhin said in his Sunday audio message that 72,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in the "meat grinder" of Bakhmut and around 100,000 to 140,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been injured.

[The_Capt]

20 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I've been propounding a thesis on this for the last couple of months. Forgive me if this lacks clarity as I'm still thinking it through but essentially, it comes down to 'live by grey zone tactics, die by grey zone tactics". Putin was used to working on the margins of Western attention. The methodology was to always aggress in an indirect way or where the costs/benefits to oppositional powers weren't in line. Georgia, Crimea, meddling in Ukrainian politics, etc were always kept to levels that didn't challenge Western interests enough for any decisive intervention. Russia always matched those efforts with investments, influence campaigns and economic pressure to help tip the balance in their favor. But the aggressions where applied were always intense and decisive (i.e. Syria, Georgia, 2014 Ukraine).

The 2022 invasion inverted that whole structure. Putin decided to drop the grey zone tactics and try to run the table in Ukraine. This time, the influence, investment and economic pressure were also applied but at no more intensity than Russia had done in early, far less significant endeavors. The aggression was direct and directly challenged the security of virtually every stronger power in the world with the possible exception of China. And yet, the grey zone mentality still showed itself. Russia just tried to apply it to the actual military action. The invasion was under resourced in military terms and instead rested on multiple layers of subversion, bribery and subterfuge. 

This was obviously completely inadequate for purpose. And yet, Putin's regime is still in that space. It is locked in a high intensity conflict with an ever more competent and technologically superior foe backed by potentially overwhelming allies and still....still...is trying to leverage a weaker hand. In other words, it's not procrastination. It's a mindset.

So if one looks at Subversive/Political Warfare Doctrine to my eyes Russia was attempting a Step 4 - Create Puppets.  This can be done covertly or overtly, they went for overt.  Normally one has already done Steps 1-3 (Mapping, Exploit Fractures, Build Cancers) to a point where you have already gotten your own people in the right places and hijacked the central nervous system of the society.  Step 4 can happen as a sponsored coup a la Crimea/Donbas or something a little more aggressive but the key component is a rapid fall of existing macro social structures that you have eroded to dysfunctional and replacement with your own, which are often just waiting to step in.

So to my eyes this is less about “Grey Zoning It” and more about moving forward in a Grey Zone strategy well before you have set the conditions.  Russia did almost zero shaping internationally as far as we can tell.  We had months of “we are only on exercise” which we even saw here when the pro-Russian crowd weighed in.  But no real mechanisms that would sow seeds of western doubt beyond some clumsy attempts.  Clearly whatever they had ready in the wings was nowhere near ready to backstop the move. The Ukrainian military was clearly not on board and neither was the people space in Ukraine itself.

So if one tries for Step 4 before establishing conditions you get exactly this: Grey Zone gone Dark Zone, because you have not fundamentally undecided the issues both outside and inside Ukraine enough.  Your opponents are not under effective Reflexive Control.  While at the same time you are not set up for Dark Zone open warfare.  From a professional point of view this was sloppy as hell and a sign of serious disconnects within the halls of power in Russia - a fact that has been borne out by prosecution of this war itself.  

Russia was basically running into the night without a flashlight at that point.  So high on their own supply that progressive unreality set in and all sorts of assumptions became hard facts in the calculus…right up to the point reality came out of the dark and bit their noses off.

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Vet 0369 said:

Cool, a Yankee Doodle Dandy!

gawd you have no idea how much "fun" that was listening to my drunk uncles and aunts singing every year.

[womble]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

"That high-level bureaucrats, those very towers of the Kremlin, are trying to shut the mouths of everyone so that they don't speak about Wagner will only give another shove to the people."

[and]

"In the long term - long term is two or three months - they will receive a finger-slap from the people for trying to shut everyone's mouths and ears," Prigozhin said.

Wow. As delusions go, that's a doozy. He thinks the Russian people give two hoots about him and his reputation? Or that they'll get uppity about being denied the opportunity to hear about his glorious victory (let's face it, he's RTB for a couple of months rebuilding at least, so there won't be any other "splendid" news to report about him or his murderers).

I guess it's just more clues about how much lead there must be in the Kremlin plumbing...

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

[Beleg85]

Ukrainian missile, possibly Storm Shadow (oh my God, abbreviate "SS" !) hitting Russian target between Mariupol and Jalta (not that Jałta).

 

[The_Capt]

56 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

So Ukraine deep strike capability maybe not so much neutralized?

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

I've been propounding a thesis on this for the last couple of months. Forgive me if this lacks clarity as I'm still thinking it through but essentially, it comes down to 'live by grey zone tactics, die by grey zone tactics". Putin was used to working on the margins of Western attention. The methodology was to always aggress in an indirect way or where the costs/benefits to oppositional powers weren't in line. Georgia, Crimea, meddling in Ukrainian politics, etc were always kept to levels that didn't challenge Western interests enough for any decisive intervention. Russia always matched those efforts with investments, influence campaigns and economic pressure to help tip the balance in their favor. But the aggressions where applied were always intense and decisive (i.e. Syria, Georgia, 2014 Ukraine).

The 2022 invasion inverted that whole structure. Putin decided to drop the grey zone tactics and try to run the table in Ukraine. This time, the influence, investment and economic pressure were also applied but at no more intensity than Russia had done in early, far less significant endeavors. The aggression was direct and directly challenged the security of virtually every stronger power in the world with the possible exception of China. And yet, the grey zone mentality still showed itself. Russia just tried to apply it to the actual military action. The invasion was under resourced in military terms and instead rested on multiple layers of subversion, bribery and subterfuge. 

This was obviously completely inadequate for purpose. And yet, Putin's regime is still in that space. It is locked in a high intensity conflict with an ever more competent and technologically superior foe backed by potentially overwhelming allies and still....still...is trying to leverage a weaker hand. In other words, it's not procrastination. It's a mindset.

It was a Military operation conceived,  designed and directed by Intelligence officers but at a scale way above Intel ops level. 

Or rather, mis-conceived, ill-designed and mis-directed...

[FancyCat]

lots of C2 indeed.

 

 

[sburke]

80 occupiers deserted in Lysychansk, 30 Wagner mercenaries near Bakhmut – General Staff (yahoo.com)

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, about 80 Russian soldiers deserted in the occupied Lysychansk, Luhansk Oblast, and about 30 Wagner mercenaries fled in the Bakhmut area.

Source: report of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Quote: "About 80 people from the Shtorm-Z unit of the Russian occupation forces deserted in Lysychansk, Luhansk Oblast. They voluntarily left their combat positions.

Also, about 30 people from the Wagner Group deserted in the Bakhmut area, they voluntarily left their combat positions too, stealing military equipment."

Details: The General Staff also informs that forced passportization of Ukrainian citizens is underway in the temporarily occupied Nyzhni Sirohozy district of Kherson Oblast. In particular, the Russian occupiers constantly put pressure on the locals, threaten deportation and confiscation of property.

[sburke]

Russian state media calling for unpaid 6th day of work to fund Ukraine invasion, Western intel says (yahoo.com)

Russian state media and some Kremlin-linked businesses are proposing a six-day work week in order to fund Russia's war in Ukraine — without additional pay.

According to an intelligence update from the UK Ministry of Defence, the state-backed media and business groups "have petitioned the Economic Ministry to authorize a six-day week for workers in the face of the economic demands of the war, apparently without additional pay."

[sburke]

Mayor explained the unusual vibrations in Kyiv this night: Weapons are going to the front (yahoo.com)

Mayor of Kyiv, Vitalii Klitschko, explained the unusual vibrations felt by the residents of the capital on Sunday night as the movement of powerful weapons to the front.

Source: Klitschko on air during the national joint 24/7 newscast

Details: The mayor was asked if he knew what caused the vibrations that residents of the city of Kyiv and its oblast confused with an earthquake.

Quote from Klitschko: "That is weapons going to the front, new and powerful ones. The vibration may be caused by that."

Background:

On the night of 28 May, an air-raid warning, local residents felt unusual vibrations reminiscent of an earthquake in the city of Kyiv and its oblast.

However, as reported by UP.Zhyttia, no earthquakes were recorded by the Main Center of Special Control in Kyiv Oblast that night. The international services that monitor the activity of seismic phenomena on Earth also did not report earthquakes in Ukraine in recent hours.

 

 

[Beleg85]

9 minutes ago, sburke said:

On the night of 28 May, an air-raid warning, local residents felt unusual vibrations reminiscent of an earthquake in the city of Kyiv and its oblast.

However, as reported by UP.Zhyttia, no earthquakes were recorded by the Main Center of Special Control in Kyiv Oblast that night. The international services that monitor the activity of seismic phenomena on Earth also did not report earthquakes in Ukraine in recent hours.

It's curious how many times Ukrainians used these Air Alarms to transport equipment through aglomerations without too many eyes watching. Heard different versions, but reportedly at least once, just before Kharkiv offensive.

Reported previous strike in Yurivka:

[akd]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

lots of C2 indeed.

Based on the officer's residence, possibly 58th CAA HQ.

[Bulletpoint]

4 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

The best trench footage I have seen so far. Radio traffic + GoPro + drone footage. ENG subtitles 

 

Do we know where and when this was filmed? I'm guessing recently outside Bakhmut, during the pushback on the flanks?

[Centurian52]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

I've been propounding a thesis on this for the last couple of months. Forgive me if this lacks clarity as I'm still thinking it through but essentially, it comes down to 'live by grey zone tactics, die by grey zone tactics". Putin was used to working on the margins of Western attention. The methodology was to always aggress in an indirect way or where the costs/benefits to oppositional powers weren't in line. Georgia, Crimea, meddling in Ukrainian politics, etc were always kept to levels that didn't challenge Western interests enough for any decisive intervention. Russia always matched those efforts with investments, influence campaigns and economic pressure to help tip the balance in their favor. But the aggressions where applied were always intense and decisive (i.e. Syria, Georgia, 2014 Ukraine).

The 2022 invasion inverted that whole structure. Putin decided to drop the grey zone tactics and try to run the table in Ukraine. This time, the influence, investment and economic pressure were also applied but at no more intensity than Russia had done in early, far less significant endeavors. The aggression was direct and directly challenged the security of virtually every stronger power in the world with the possible exception of China. And yet, the grey zone mentality still showed itself. Russia just tried to apply it to the actual military action. The invasion was under resourced in military terms and instead rested on multiple layers of subversion, bribery and subterfuge. 

This was obviously completely inadequate for purpose. And yet, Putin's regime is still in that space. It is locked in a high intensity conflict with an ever more competent and technologically superior foe backed by potentially overwhelming allies and still....still...is trying to leverage a weaker hand. In other words, it's not procrastination. It's a mindset.

I think even the 2022 invasion was meant to remain in the grey zone. Putin just miscalculated. He thought he could subdue Ukraine in a matter of days. The invasion was meant to be over before the West could implement any sort of decisive intervention. And once it was over there would have been no point in a decisive intervention. When that failed he found himself in a very non-grey situation that he hadn't planned for.

[NamEndedAllen]

Remember this? 2014. It’s been nine long years. And oceans of blood, sweat and tears:

https://youtu.be/NOCbW1hc6Ng

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Just a reminder that not everything we certainly, firmly believe in this forum turns out right. Erdogan won the turkish elections once again.

While this thread isn't always right about everything (how could it be?), you're wrong here.  The general consensus turned out to be correct, which was that Erdogan would not win the election.  And guess what?  He did not.  At least in the primary election.  Now that the runoff is over he won, but just barely.  Considering all the tricks his party played to get this result, it would seem that he would have been defeated in a fully honest election.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Propaganda video from RVC promising more problems for Russian internal security forces.  I'm sure of two things... they exaggerate their strength, but they can and will cause significant disruption in the months to come.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

For fun, a Russian military bloopers video.  Some are not really from this war, but are still funny.  They missed one of my favorites, which was a T-72 taking a turn wrong and slamming full speed into a large tree.

Steve

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Kinophile]

WW2 rolling tank obstacles.  Interesting idea. 

 

[Kraft]

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Do we know where and when this was filmed? I'm guessing recently outside Bakhmut, during the pushback on the flanks?

The clip at the very end where they gun down the Wagner in his hole, is from before 23rd April, thats the date when I downloaded it from their TG. I am sure other clips from the video appeared earlier but I cant find them, I have too many muddy trench videos..

Pretty sure this is a fight over the road of life, not flank counter attacks

Interesting to note, there are 2 released drone POVs as well as GoPro footage of this single engagement, maybe even the thermal drone too.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Kraft

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, billbindc said:

I've been propounding a thesis on this for the last couple of months. Forgive me if this lacks clarity as I'm still thinking it through but essentially, it comes down to 'live by grey zone tactics, die by grey zone tactics". Putin was used to working on the margins of Western attention. The methodology was to always aggress in an indirect way or where the costs/benefits to oppositional powers weren't in line.

...

This was obviously completely inadequate for purpose. And yet, Putin's regime is still in that space. It is locked in a high intensity conflict with an ever more competent and technologically superior foe backed by potentially overwhelming allies and still....still...is trying to leverage a weaker hand. In other words, it's not procrastination. It's a mindset.

Exactly this.  Putin's playbook was based on the Cold War Soviet strategy to push the margins and stay out of direct confrontation with NATO specifically and the West generally.  They were able to make a lot more trouble without direct military involvement outside of its borders.  Afghanistan being the one major conflict where Western weaponry caused direct casualties to Soviet forces.  Russia continued with this right up until 2014.

The most critical component of this whole strategy was to be the one pushing the buttons.  Almost exclusively Russia was able to adjust what it did next based on what the West did, or often didn't, do as a response to something Russia did.  The strategy was to push and push and push and push until pushing didn't seem like it would yield a good result.  When that point came, the solution was to stop pushing and that usually calmed things down.  With a few very isolated exceptions (the Magnitsky Act being one) Russia got away with its behavior until 2014.  That's when things really started to go wrong.

The interesting thing that Putin missed is that Russia's decades of trouble making might have gone unpunished, but it had not gone unnoticed.  Each year that ticked by where Russia violated international norms and became more autocratic eroded support and increased calls for taking action.  It also showed patterns of behavior to the West from which it could learn for the future (e.g. that Putin's word means NOTHING).  When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 the West was ready to start dealing out some consequences.  Not enough for the circumstances, but they were significant none-the-less.

Starting with 2014 Russia's pushing met more resistance and less success.  Even seemingly successful actions, such as interfering in the US 2015 election, had limited and short lived benefits.  In other words, the "grey zone tactics" were already failing.  So much so that by 2021 Putin had likely concluded that he wasn't going to get what he wanted playing his usual game.  And so he committed Russia to the eventual invasion of Ukraine.

Since then Putin has continued to use his old playbook without realizing, or accepting, that the conventional war he launched required an entirely new playbook.  Instead of trying to establishing something new, he keeps going with the old ways.  And they are not working.

Under the old rules Putin, not Ukraine or the West, decides the conditions for what comes next.  Putin, not Ukraine or the West, decides when things calm down.  Putin believes SOMETHING will come up that will avoid him having to call up another mobilization.  Instead, he should realize that Ukraine and the West get to decide this and have, in fact, made a decision that will fairly soon cause large casualties.  Since there's nothing for Russia to do to short circuit this decision, Russia should have either mobilized months ago or gotten serious about negotiating an end to the war.  Either are risky for him, but so is waiting for an opportunity that isn't likely to come.  Because making no decision is a decision, Putin has effectively decided his army is going to get suffer large enough casualties that he'll have to either mobilize or negotiate with an even weaker hand. Grey zone stuff won't change the equation.

Well played, Putin

Steve