How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

What's really interesting is that we would not have made many of conclusions about conditions within Ukraine before the invasion happened. Russia had spent decades running extensive information and influence operations in Ukraine before this war. There was plenty of evidence that significant state level actors were suborned (see Medvedchuk, Victor), that parts of the the Ukrainian intelligence services were doubled (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-double-agent-russian-invasion-fsb-intelligence-operatives/), etc. Moscow certainly believed it had night vision. 

The big question is why all of that effort didn't work or suddenly came to nothing when push came to shove. The simplest answer is that while Russia was operating in a conspiratorial fashion, the actual politics/reactions of normal Ukrainians was a freight train going in the opposite direction.

Honestly my guess, and I stress guess is that Grey Zone/Subversive warfare can have a counter-effect in the people space if done too fast or clumsily.  If people think they are being actively subverted or manipulated then it can essentially change the salinity of the water.  Suddenly everything that happens is attributed to the Russians.  They run out of manoeuvre room because they have already burned too much of the conative forest, too fast. 

I am sure Russia had bushels of self-interested collaborators, plenty examples of this; however, that does not translate into dislocation of micro-social networks at scale.  The people on a micro-social level decided "no".  Russia did not set the conditions to ensure that answer was a "maybe", if they had they may have pulled this thing off.  They did not have enough of the Ukrainian military in pockets, or critical infrastructure or government institutions.  They look like they made a lot of assumptions that did not translate.  Crimea and Donbas salted the water to the point that Russia became vilified and subversion does not work well when you have united a people in their hate and mistrust of you.  

[acrashb]

22 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So if one looks at Subversive/Political Warfare Doctrine to my eyes Russia was attempting a Step 4 - Create Puppets.  This can be done covertly or overtly, they went for overt.  Normally one has already done Steps 1-3 (Mapping, Exploit Fractures, Build Cancers)

Where does Canada sit on this scale with regards to Chinese efforts? The recent Johnston inquiry was underwhelming in terms of useful information.

[dan/california]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Honestly my guess, and I stress guess is that Grey Zone/Subversive warfare can have a counter-effect in the people space if done too fast or clumsily.  If people think they are being actively subverted or manipulated then it can essentially change the salinity of the water.  Suddenly everything that happens is attributed to the Russians.  They run out of manoeuvre room because they have already burned too much of the conative forest, too fast. 

I am sure Russia had bushels of self-interested collaborators, plenty examples of this; however, that does not translate into dislocation of micro-social networks at scale.  The people on a micro-social level decided "no".  Russia did not set the conditions to ensure that answer was a "maybe", if they had they may have pulled this thing off.  They did not have enough of the Ukrainian military in pockets, or critical infrastructure or government institutions.  They look like they made a lot of assumptions that did not translate.  Crimea and Donbas salted the water to the point that Russia became vilified and subversion does not work well when you have united a people in their hate and mistrust of you.  

The incomprehensible thing is the one of the RUSI reports made it very clear that a great many of the preconditions for a successful coup de main that would have let Russia succeed before opposition mobilized had not been achieved. They not anywhere close to being achieved. In particular the Russian plan called for creating real civil strife on the streets of Kyiv before launching the invasion. That simply didn't happen, and Putin was so drunk on his own special cool-aid that he pressed the go button anyway. The entire Russian disaster in Ukraine follows from that one decision.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/regions-and-country-groups/ukraine

As an aside I finally looked at the entire index of reports on the RUSI website, and there is a LOT of stuff there. It would take you a month to read it all kind of lots. Indeed there s so much I couldn't find the exact peace I remember reading, but it was posted in the thread when it was first issued.

Edited May 29, 2023 by dan/california

[kimbosbread]

54 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

The one positive from the Erdogan result is that he absolutely owns the victory.  Had the opposition won they would have been faced with the economic car crash that Turkey is today while speaking with several voices about an intractable problem and with Erdogan's united party breathing down their necks.  How long the new government would have lasted is anyone's guess but it is unlikely to have served a full term - Erdogan would have been waiting in the wings for a hero's return.

Now Erdogan owns fully the problem he created.  There is a record current account deficit and the reserves have been used to finance vote winning giveaways.  The currency continues to sink.  Inflation is running away.  The european market Turkey was equipping to serve is retreating further and there are plenty of Eastern European countries prepared to take over the opportunity that was Turkey's - including Hungary.  With Erdogan at the helm these problems are not solvable without becoming further entrammelled with UAE/Saudi as financiers - at least in my opinion.

Yeah, that’s a good point. Ottoman Monetary Theory is now not just theoretically stupid!

There’s another silver lining- if anybody wants to shore up demographics with young well-educated yuppie turks (yurks?) that demographic is ripe for pillaging! For example, if Ukraine was amenable…

[kimbosbread]

What are the go-to texts on grey zone warfare? I’ve read about all the books on logistics, guerilla and otherwise I can find!

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, acrashb said:

Where does Canada sit on this scale with regards to Chinese efforts? The recent Johnston inquiry was underwhelming in terms of useful information.

We are definitely in Step 1 and likely Step 2 - part of exploiting fractures is to increase influence and pre-position as a result of those exploits.  The fact that we are divided politically on what to do about it is not a good sign.  One has to keep in mind that an opponent does not need to do all 5 steps.  They can simply rattle in steps 2 and 3 indefinitely and render a target nation pretty paralyzed and ineffectual which is often enough for strategic ends. 

[Harmon Rabb]

[rocketman]

5 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Short party though, now it stands at 2002!

[sburke]

Belarus's Lukashenko says there can be 'nuclear weapons for everyone' (yahoo.com)

and you get a nuke and you get a nuke!

Quote

 

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that if any other country wanted to join a Russia-Belarus union there could be "nuclear weapons for everyone".

Russia moved ahead last week with a plan to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, in the Kremlin's first deployment of such warheads outside Russia since the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union, spurring concerns in the West.

 

I can see them lining up to join - N Korea, Iran . . 

 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Honestly my guess, and I stress guess is that Grey Zone/Subversive warfare can have a counter-effect in the people space if done too fast or clumsily.  If people think they are being actively subverted or manipulated then it can essentially change the salinity of the water.  Suddenly everything that happens is attributed to the Russians.  They run out of manoeuvre room because they have already burned too much of the conative forest, too fast. 

I am sure Russia had bushels of self-interested collaborators, plenty examples of this; however, that does not translate into dislocation of micro-social networks at scale.  The people on a micro-social level decided "no".  Russia did not set the conditions to ensure that answer was a "maybe", if they had they may have pulled this thing off.  They did not have enough of the Ukrainian military in pockets, or critical infrastructure or government institutions.  They look like they made a lot of assumptions that did not translate.  Crimea and Donbas salted the water to the point that Russia became vilified and subversion does not work well when you have united a people in their hate and mistrust of you.  

The salinity took a drastic change in 2014 and then solidified over 6 years of frozen conflict. Somehow, the FSB didn't notice it or simply bought their own propaganda. https://news.gallup.com/poll/180110/ukrainian-approval-russia-leadership-dives-almost.aspx

[acrashb]

55 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We are definitely in Step 1 and likely Step 2 

Thanks, I agree.  Also, it seems to me that these steps need not be completely serial.  For example, one can build a cancer  aligned with an early-exploited fracture and hold them in reserve or use them to test the waters while other fractures are exploited. 

In any event, the framework you mentioned will be helpful when I'm talking to my political friends.  Google did not see anything - is this a 'capt special' or is there some concise literature around the sequence?

Edited May 29, 2023 by acrashb

[TheVulture]

Explosions reported in Sevastopol, possible in the port area. https://t.me/chp_sevastopol/15854

Quote

Что за звуки непонятные в районе корабелки? как что-то взрывается либо как ПВО работает. Непонятно

(google translate is pretty incoherent on this one, so if anyone can do a better job....)

Maybe it's like a horror movie, and one of those unmanned explosive boats has caught up with the Ivan Khurs again just when it thought it was safe

[Vanir Ausf B]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

3.  The strikes on Kyiv are dreadful and despicable but militarily it does have a positive side:  all those missiles weren't hitting things that could disrupt the UKR campaigning season.  So in the end it's just more murder but does not hinder what's coming.

I think this is mostly true but we should remember that we don't see or hear about everything consequential that happens.

 

[dan/california]

Everything is going to plan.......for Ukraine.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, womble said:

I wonder whether expat Turks are keener on Erdogan because they don't have to live in his mess.

No. Like in every other country "the Turks" is already oversimplifying things. Most Turkish expats in western Europe are immigrants (or their descendants) who came when after WW2 a depleted workforce couldn't keep up with the rapidly growing economy. Cheap workforce for the industry was needed and in Turkey they came mostly from poorer rural regions. They were and still are much more traditional and religious and things like that stick "in exile". The rural regions is where Erdogan is strong. In Turkey itself this is balanced by more progressive and better educated people in the larger cities who are much less fond of Erdogan.

[dan/california]

Just now, Butschi said:

No. Like in every other country "the Turks" is already oversimplifying things. Most Turkish expats in western Europe are immigrants (or their descendants) who came when after WW2 a depleted workforce couldn't keep up with the rapidly growing economy. Cheap workforce for the industry was needed and in Turkey they came mostly from poorer rural regions. They were and still are much more traditional and religious and things like that stick "in exile". The rural regions is where Erdogan is strong. In Turkey itself this is balanced by more progressive and better educated people in the larger cities who are much less fond of Erdogan.

The way urban vs rural politics works pretty much anywhere in the world free enough to HAVE politics must say something fairly deep about human nature, this moment in the grand sweep of history, or both.

[Vanir Ausf B]

2 hours ago, Astrophel said:

What is Nato to do?  My instinct is to confront Turkey immediately with a demand to allow Swedish and Ukrainian accession or leave.  Erdogan will concede in my judgement while the Turkish electorate will be made sharply aware that Nato membership under Erdogan is not a given.

 

2 hours ago, womble said:

And risk him running into Putin's arms? The man's almost as delusional a narcissist as Vlad is, and has all the autocratic tendencies. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that he cuts his nose off to spite his face. Then you have to do the same to Hungary, with the same, though slightly lower risk.

Even if doing so were feasible (it is not) placing the Turkish Straits outside of NATO control would be a huge own goal.

[DesertFox]

Something is brewing on the balcans

 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

11 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Something is brewing on the balcans

 

 

 

Edited May 29, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Ales Dvorak]

Strange .... few pages back Steve just said Kosovo worked out pretty well .....

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

Thanks, I agree.  Also, it seems to me that these steps need not be completely serial.  For example, one can build a cancer  aligned with an early-exploited fracture and hold them in reserve or use them to test the waters while other fractures are exploited. 

In any event, the framework you mentioned will be helpful when I'm talking to my political friends.  Google did not see anything - is this a 'capt special' or is there some concise literature around the sequence?

Kind of a Capt Special but I borrowed heavily from “US political warfare doctrine” started by Keenan (just type that in and you will get lots).  For the Russian angle I would start with Russian Hybrid Warfare by Ofir Fridman.  The steps are my own framework which is a simplification of some far more complex ones.

[dan/california]

47 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Kind of a Capt Special but I borrowed heavily from “US political warfare doctrine” started by Keenan (just type that in and you will get lots).  For the Russian angle I would start with Russian Hybrid Warfare by Ofir Fridman.  The steps are my own framework which is a simplification of some far more complex ones.

The_Capt has been giving us bits of a staff college course to see if it is capable of improving even reprobates likes us. And we should be very grateful for that.

Edited May 29, 2023 by dan/california

[FancyCat]

to be frank, leaving Sweden out of NATO isn't that big a deal, end of the day, Finland will be the shield on Sweden's east. 

Keeping the exit out of the Black Sea in NATO hands is way more important than Sweden entering. Besides, i feel like Turkey is just looking for concessions, and brow-beating for the election. 

[Letter from Prague]

21 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

While this thread isn't always right about everything (how could it be?), you're wrong here.  The general consensus turned out to be correct, which was that Erdogan would not win the election.  And guess what?  He did not.  At least in the primary election.  Now that the runoff is over he won, but just barely.  Considering all the tricks his party played to get this result, it would seem that he would have been defeated in a fully honest election.

Steve

There's also ... reactions.

Turkey’s lira sinks to fresh record low after Erdogan re-election

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/29/turkeys-lira-sinks-to-near-record-low-as-erdogan-is-reelected.html

[BlackMoria]

Ah, yes.   The old "Law of Unintended Consequences."  Always an arse biter.