How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chris talpas]

Ben Hodges interview 

 

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, Fenris said:

 

Look at all those pristine flat Surfaces just begging, CRYING OUT for some lovely ERA... 

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

I am with you. For some reason the A10 has become a polarizing aircraft. Some still love it and others want to fade it out. Maybe it comes from turf wars. Army aviation vs USAF and the role each has in CAS. But having A10s on the sidelines without even giving them a try out in a war desperate for any available firepower is puzzling. 

This is absolutely the reason. The Army LOVES the Hog (there’s nothing like a good”Brrrrrrt” for close air support, except USMC F/A-18 Super hornets), and the Air Force “Fighter Mafia” has been trying to get it cancelled and later obsoleted so they can use that funding for more “glamorous” and dazzling fighters. It has been a very public, bitter, and long running fight. The Hog does have some every strong Air Force, Army, and Congressional supporters though.

[Bulletpoint]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

‘I need ammunition, not a ride’ says it all. 

Yes, that's why the senior American official said it. It sounded good.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/06/zelenskys-famous-quote-need-ammo-not-ride-not-easily-confirmed/

[Huba]

3 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

The F-16s being retired by European F-35 operators are old A models, but they have received a very comprehensive Mid Life Upgrade program. They are still a very capable platform...

We know for a fact that some od the Dutch F-16s have been undergoing additional maintenance/ upgrades since late 2022. It might very well be that Uncle Sam could send something really really modern (just keeping the F-16 myth alive would be worth it). If some airframes would come with the SABRs, the overall picture would change dramatically, and not to VVS advantage.

 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Huba

[Haiduk]

Multiple expliosions reportedly on Kursk airfield - homebase of 14th fighter aviation regiment (Su-30SM)

Sound of shooting in Sudzha district of Kursk oblast. Likely next RDK raid, but no info for now

 

 

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yes, that's why the senior American official said it. It sounded good.

Thanks. Didn't know that. 

Let's see if this unit actually forms and is anyway effective.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-forms-elite-group-after-air-forces-severely-underperformed-uk-1801898

Edited May 24, 2023 by kevinkin

[paxromana]

Smoke reported on Crimean Bridge - road traffic and water traffic stopped. Crimean 'authorities' claim it is 'training' ...

Another smoking accident? 

Edited May 24, 2023 by paxromana

[TheVulture]

Video of the 'drill' on kerch bridge:

https://t.me/rian_ru/203550

Do drills normally involve a burning vehicle?

Edited May 24, 2023 by TheVulture

[SteelRain]

7 hours ago, MikeyD said:

Leopard 1A4 with the welded turret has never seen combat, has it? Now that i think of it, has any Leopard 1 seen combat beside the few Canadian examples that went to Afghanistan?

In 1994 the Danish were the first to use the Leopard 1 in combat in Bosnia vs Bosnian Serbs. The Danish acquired Leo 1A3 with welded turrets in 1976 and upgraded them to 1A5DK in the early 1990's.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bøllebank

Fast forward to 2023 and it looks like Operation Bully Bashing II is on the way. Lets hope for the Mouse to feast on another Cat

German and Danish instructors training Ukrainian Crews in Germany.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5uVIPFpTC4

Edited May 24, 2023 by SteelRain
added the video

[Grey_Fox]

5 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

This is absolutely the reason. The Army LOVES the Hog (there’s nothing like a good”Brrrrrrt” for close air support, except USMC F/A-18 Super hornets), and the Air Force “Fighter Mafia” has been trying to get it cancelled and later obsoleted so they can use that funding for more “glamorous” and dazzling fighters. It has been a very public, bitter, and long running fight. The Hog does have some every strong Air Force, Army, and Congressional supporters though.

The A-10 requires a permissive environment to operate in successfully. In a contested environment, it's a death trap.

[DesertFox]

17 minutes ago, SteelRain said:

In 1994 the Danish were the first to use the Leopard 1 in combat in Bosnia vs Bosnian Serbs. The Danish acquired Leo 1A3 with welded turrets in 1976 and upgraded them to 1A5DK in the early 1990's.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bøllebank

Fast forward to 2023 and it looks like Operation Bully Bashing II is on the way. Lets hope for the Mouse to feast on another Cat

Yep. Danish 1 A5 is different from german 1 A5 with regards to turret shape.

Danish one (basis 1A3 turret) here:

Leopard 1A5 DK - Danish Army Vehicles Homepage

German one (basis 1A2 and A1A1 turret) here:

LEOPARD 1 A5 - KMW (kmweg.de)

Edited May 24, 2023 by DesertFox

[Tux]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Thanks. Didn't know that. 

Let's see if this unit actually forms and is anyway effective.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-forms-elite-group-after-air-forces-severely-underperformed-uk-1801898

“Jagdverband 23”?

[Fenris]

I've not seen this before.

"This footage released by the 3rd Assault Brigade of Ukraine reportedly shows troops from the 1st Assault Battalion attacking Russian positions near Bakhmut".

Translation from the comments

0:33 Move forward for one tree! Common common!

0:47 O *uck! Well! go, go to make "200" ( to kill)! ... 20 metres to the left dugout, well watch out to the left. "Heavy" (nickname), you are forward for one tree.

1:02 O *uck! But well ( what we can do else)? We must take it under fire control and approach. Heavy and Mario, aim for the dugout and *uck on the right tree, make a dash

1:42 Kypysh ( nickname), run to Heavy's point. Heavy, Raptor, Mario, work as trio now! moving with fire! Move, move! "Heavy", throw a grenade! Well, all reload! Throw a grenade! .. Get ready, stop don't fire... Go go go!.. Come in! ..Heavy, from the right, watch out and with a shot! Mario, a grenade!

2:45 I *ucked him! - Kill him? Well done! Draw near! Where is dead body? Well done! Common guys, clear the trench completely! Mario, come to Heavy and work as duo. Raptor, come here, cover to 12. All draw near!

3:24 Heavy, be careful and watch out. COme in. Kypysh, watch out second entry

3:39 So? Are you coming out or not, blyat?! If you come out you will live. If not, we will kill you. Well, clear him comletely! Come in! Just open curtain and finish him. Guys we need to pass by, cause mortars are working at us. Look, push back the curtain with the gun barrel and shoot. Hurry!

4:24 Spread out

[paxromana]

Seems to be real news ...

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/24/7403616/

Russian cigarettes!

[Baneman]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Thanks. Didn't know that. 

Let's see if this unit actually forms and is anyway effective.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-forms-elite-group-after-air-forces-severely-underperformed-uk-1801898

Ha !

Forming special extra-good "elite" units when you really need a ton of "good enough" resonates so strongly with the "Germany losing" phase of WW2 that my teeth ache ! 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

15 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Commander of this unit also mentioned advanced plans of formation of American VC and (hold on to your chairs) German VC.

The German battalion should be called "Soloviey". Just for a lark.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Maciej Zwolinski
Turns out the forum software does not like cyryllic

[Seminole]

1 hour ago, Grey_Fox said:

The A-10 requires a permissive environment to operate in successfully. In a contested environment, it's a death trap.

I understand this is the conventional wisdom.

How do you reconcile it with the utilization and lack of loss in the Kosovo bombing campaign?

The environment was not ‘permissive’.

[TheVulture]

14 minutes ago, Seminole said:

I understand this is the conventional wisdom.

How do you reconcile it with the utilization and lack of loss in the Kosovo bombing campaign?

The environment was not ‘permissive’.

It's not like Sebia had S-300 or S-400 systems or the kind of comprehensive air defence network that Russia has either though.  Serbia had a much weaker air defence system,  width was further suppressed by NATO air superiority. Russia has neither of those problems,  and I doubt Ukraine has the capability to carve out enough local superiority for slow moving A-10s to get in for strike missions.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 hours ago, Grey_Fox said:

The A-10 requires a permissive environment to operate in successfully. In a contested environment, it's a death trap.

Compared to an aircraft shooting a stand off missile from a long way away, sure. But compared to attack helicopters and SU 25 that Ukrainians are using, less of a death trap than they are. It would approach from below the long and medium range SAM envelope and would have to contest only with the MANPADS and AA guns.  With plenty of flares and IR jamming pods, could work. Could help Ukrainians to use tons of iron bombs and unguided rocket pods which they have in storage.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Russia has neither of those problems, and I doubt Ukraine has the capability to carve out enough local superiority for slow moving A-10s to get in for strike missions.

Not for battlefield interdiction strikes, but CAS directly over the frontline, to the depth of artillery positions maximum (less than 10 km). By flying low, the risk could be limited to MANPADS and AA artillery. Below radar cover of the S-300/S-400 and It would be difficult for Russians to bring  fighters due to SAM risk

[Seminole]

22 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

It's not like Sebia had S-300 or S-400 systems or the kind of comprehensive air defence network that Russia has either though.  Serbia had a much weaker air defence system,  width was further suppressed by NATO air superiority. Russia has neither of those problems,  and I doubt Ukraine has the capability to carve out enough local superiority for slow moving A-10s to get in for strike missions.

A-10s aren't for strike missions.  In this environment, and with Ukraine's air force, the deeper strike stuff is best left to missiles anyway.

The A-10 needs to operate at the edge of the Russian AD, not deep within.

Not some kind of silver bullet, but as mentioned, a more capable replacement for the CAS airframes that Ukraine already employs.

Couple the fact that the USAF is trying like hell to get rid of them (for 30+ years now...), better they get shot down serving their purpose in Donbass than succumbing to the elements at the Boneyard.

Throw it away in the desert, or throw it into the fight?

APR 13, 2023

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/a-10-warthogs-sent-to-boneyard-for-the-first-time-in-years

Earlier this month, an A-10C Warthog ground attack jet arrived at the boneyard at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona. This jet is the first to head into retirement in years and is part of a batch of 21 the U.S. Air Force expected to divest in the coming months. This is in line with the service's desire to retire all of its Warthogs before the end of the decade, an effort that is now starting to move ahead after years of members of Congress blocking such plans.

The first of these 21 A-10Cs to go to the boneyard, which carries the serial number 80-0149, arrived at Davis-Monthan on April 5, but the Air Force only publicly announced it had touched down there earlier this week. The service said that the jet, which started life as an A-10A and was later upgraded to the C model configuration, had logged a total of 14,125 flight hours in the course of its career.

80-0149's last assignment was to the 74th Fighter Squadron, part of the 23rd Fighter Group at Moody Air Force Base in Georgia. The 74th received another A-10C to take its place from the Indiana Air National Guard, according to the Air Force. The Indiana Air National Guard's lone Warthog squadron, the 122nd Fighter Wing's 163rd Fighter Squadron, is in the process of converting to the F-16C/D Viper.

...

"This is bittersweet, it’s an old aircraft and there comes a time when each of them need to be retired," Air Force Staff Sgt. Austin Bryne, a crew chief from the 74th added. "They are still combat capable, but after all the hours put in, their time comes."

The Air Force currently has approval from Congress to divest 21 A-10Cs, which will bring the total size of the remaining Warthog fleet down to around 260 aircraft. Multiple Warthog units are expected to send A-10Cs with high flight hours to the boneyard and receive lower-time jets from the Indiana Air National Guard as part of this process.

...

According to data from the 309th, which is in charge of the boneyard at Davis-Monthan, 100 A-10s — 49 A-10As and 51 A-10Cs — are stored there as of March 15. Prior to 80-0149's arrival, the last time the Air Force divested a significant number of A-10s in a single year was in 2014.

...

As part of its 2024 Fiscal Year budget proposal, the Air Force is asking Congress for the authority to retire another 42 A-10Cs. The service's publicly stated goal is to have the last Warthogs out of service before 2030, and possibly much sooner than that.

“I would say over the next five, six years we will actually probably be out of our A-10 inventory,” Gen. Charles Q. Brown, the chief of staff of the Air Force, told reporters at the Air & Space Forces Association's annual Warfare Symposium in March.

 

[Seminole]

posting dupe, so I updated with this revelation:

May 24 (Reuters) - The director of a top Russian science institute, arrested on suspicion of treason along with two other hypersonic missile technology experts, stands accused of betraying secrets to China, two people familiar with the case told Reuters.

Alexander Shiplyuk, head of Siberia's Khristianovich Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics (ITAM), is suspected of handing over classified material at a scientific conference in China in 2017, the sources said.

 

The 56-year-old maintains his innocence and insists the information in question wasn't classified and was freely available online, according to the people, whom Reuters has chosen not to identify to safeguard their security.

"He is convinced of the fact that the information was not secret, and of his own innocence," one of the people said.

The nature of the allegations against the ITAM director, who was arrested last August, has not been previously reported. The Chinese connection would make Shiplyuk the latest in a string of Russian scientists who have been arrested in recent years for allegedly betraying secrets to Beijing.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Seminole

[Eddy]

3 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Do drills normally involve a burning vehicle?

Apparently it is this:

 

[Kraft]

3 hours ago, Grey_Fox said:

The A-10 requires a permissive environment to operate in successfully. In a contested environment, it's a death trap.

The same could be said about the Su-25, yet it still flies on both sides daily combat missions a year+ into the war.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Kraft