How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, technically.  In reality I think the Marines view the Navy as an aquatic Uber service.

Steve

I understand that "Marine" is actually an acronym: 

Marines
Always
Ride
In
Navy
Equipment

 

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, womble said:

I understand that "Marine" is actually an acronym: 

Marines
Always
Ride
In
Navy
Equipment

 

Doesn’t that create an infinitely spiralling acronym?  A fractal acronym?

[womble]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Doesn’t that create an infinitely spiralling acronym?  A fractal acronym?

Yeah, it does. There are a couple of those lying around. "GNU Unix" for example... 

[Haiduk]

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The size of the RDK/LSR force is too small to stay in Russia for too long. 

RVC/LFR claim their forces are five battalions. Though among volunteer units any formation over than reinforced company size often considers like "battalion", so hard to say how much troops they have really.

[Centurian52]

On 5/20/2023 at 3:28 PM, Probus said:

I also wonder how Combat Mission is going to include them in any future modern titles they release

I figure they could do any loitering munition (FPV drones included) just like they do regular drones, only each one fires one "ATGM" (for game mechanics purposes) and then "lands".

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

And now the operation is defeated? 

https://kyivindependent.com/counter-terrorist-operation-in-russias-belgorod-region-canceled/

 

Further in comments were geolocation of these videos. This is not Kozinka and checkpoint  - this is Gora-Podol. RVC reportedly still at least on border checkpoing and maybe in Kozinka too.

 

[Centurian52]

On 5/20/2023 at 3:52 PM, kevinkin said:

if it takes countless paragraphs to make a position, there is no position to be made

Well that's definitely not true. Just taking this thread as a case in point, the best posts here are the longest ones.

[womble]

1 hour ago, Probus said:

I'm not saying you are wrong at all, but remember what we all thought about Ukraine's ability to hold out against the Russians in Feb 2022. We were all taken by surprise at the tenacity of the Ukrainian defense. 

I think this is a good point. The troops that have crossed the border are, I would gather, pretty battle-hardened. They don't know the terrain as well as Ukraine's defenders in the early days did; the local territorial units have the home ground advantage. And all the airpower Russia's got hanging about can be brought to bear largely unopposed, so it'll be as effective as the Russian ISR can permit. But I wouldn't be surprised if some of the locals get a serious beating if the raiders decide to. So long as they don't hang about too long to take pictures with NLAWed BMPs, they should be able to slip away ahead of any CAS response. I don't think they can sustain their presence for long, but they have the potential to do some acute propaganda-worthy combat damage.

[Haiduk]

TGs Fighterbomber and Helicopterpilot indirectly recognized a loss of Ka-52 in Belgorod oblast. 

Fighterbomber wrote RVC/LFR had MANPADs and from the border UKR Avengers covered them. Aviation worked and MANPADs launches were spotted.

Helicopterpilot also rejected news about Mi-8 crash near Prokhorovka and probably yesterday claiming of UKR about Mi-24 shot down near Toretsk (but maybe this was another rumor about Mi-24 loss over Belgorod oblast). He also added, the pilot of Su-35, which was shot down over sea two days ago, hasn't been found yet  

Interesting, RVC didn't mean destrtoyed helicopters, only defeating of motor-rifle company 

Edited May 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Probus said:

I'm not saying you are wrong at all, but remember what we all thought about Ukraine's ability to hold out against the Russians in Feb 2022. We were all taken by surprise at the tenacity of the Ukrainian defense. 

I wasn't   What I was surprised by was how absolutely piss poor the Russian forces were, even though I thought they were pretty much crap before the war started.  Russia exceeded my expectations in a good way.

This is a very different scenario.  A couple hundred guys with a few armored vehicles will be able to make quite a bother for the Russians until the Russians bring significant forces into the area.  Which Russia certainly has both the resources and the incentive to do.  It's just a numbers game once they do.

Russia's inability to squash this incursion in the first day, not to mention hours, is really quite something!  For sure it tells us that Russia was horribly ill prepared for this even though it had ample warning.  However, how much of this is Russian organizational incompetence and how much of it is due to a lack of resources is unknown to us yet.

I suspect we're seeing a lot of bad OSINT on what the Russians have for forces in the area.  A platoon of infantry and piece of heavy construction equipment at each road junction would likely have thwarted further expansion.  Even if command was totally incompetent, this sort of thing should have been pulled off by now.  Doesn't seem like it has.

If I'm correct, this means Russia has drained its remaining forces on its home turf down to pretty much nothing.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

RVC/LFR claim their forces are five battalions. Though among volunteer units any formation over than reinforced company size often considers like "battalion", so hard to say how much troops they have really.

That is my impression too.  If they have 5 Battalions it is more like 5 Companies, which is ~500.

Steve

[Splinty]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That is my impression too.  If they have 5 Battalions it is more like 5 Companies, which is ~500.

Steve

In other words one battalion-. 

[Haiduk]

Meanwhile.... Kursk People Republic to be ready %)

[Beleg85]

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That is my impression too.  If they have 5 Battalions it is more like 5 Companies, which is ~500.

Steve

That is not end of the story- RVC trained and closely cooperated with similar small units from other countries. I told you about Polish Voluntary Corps already (note that among abandoned vehicles is rare "Dzik" armoured car, this junk was given from PL to UA some time ago but not yet seen), which could have maybe up to 100 persons. Commander of this unit also mentioned advanced plans of formation of American VC and (hold on to your chairs) German VC. Supposedly Belarussians from Kalinousky regiment were spotted too, and one civilian organization giving aid enigmatically remarked that we shouldn't focus too much on "Freedom Legion of Russia" alone, as it was joined operation with several commands.

Also, worth to note it is perfect size operation for small BS campaign in the future.

Edited May 23, 2023 by Beleg85

[Artkin]

Wow lol, is this what collapse looks like?

[Centurian52]

On 5/20/2023 at 8:27 PM, kevinkin said:

Debate won. Team never showed up. 

That is not how real life works. Debates are sporting events. In the real world we have arguments (not to be confused with fights/shouting matches). Arguments do not have teams. They do not have judges. They do not have points. And they do not have clear winners or losers.

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

This is so bad and symbolic...in this short clip you can see on your own eyes, gentlemen, why this sad, aging dictator walked into deepest military s...t of our age, up to his chin. Because he prefer looking at bloody XVII-cent map instead of walking out to closest store and talk with real people.

[Haiduk]

Interesting reaction of so-called "Russian liberal opposition" on RVC raid. It mostly very negative, especially from "libertarians" wing. But mostly these are complaints like this:

There is no any legion of free Russia. Free Russia sits in jail, or has droven to emmigration or sits at home. This sign "white-blue-white" - the symbol of anti-Putin and anti-war Russia, whoever wouldn't appropriate it there. Those, who considers else - go to ban in orderly rows.

Russian liberals are typical "white coats" - they rejected force scenario of elimination of Putin's power. They always complains how multiple and invinsible OMON and Rosgvardiya and how they helpless in front of these hordes. So, they consider their lament from emmigration and talks about "Beautiful  Russia of Futire" with a glass of smoothies in fasionable hipster cafe is a real opposition fihgt with regime. In discussions with Ukrianians they directly say "Well, then come and show us how to fight with OMON, and we will watch how you will care with all of them!" Ok. RVC showed. But liberals says they are not real opposition, of course, the weapon and blood can get dirty their "white coats". 

Interesting also many Russian liberals when say "stop war" and "we are for peace" indeed means freezing of conflict. When Navalnyi suddenly changed own mind and said that Crimea should be returned to Ukraine after the war, many his followers became sharply criticize him. Some of liberals already blame Ukraine in economical crisis (smoothies likely cost much more) - "if you lay down the weapon you wouldn't loss so much people, your cities wouldn't be destroyed and we wouldn't suffer because of sactions, visa ban and crisis - if you wouldn't resist soon all would be as good recently. Indded even in Iran people live enough good" 

They live in own rose pony world, when in Ukraine invaded not Russian army, but some "Putin's army". They don't recognize own mobilized soldiers as agressors because they are "victims of Putin's regime and they havn't a choice". They also consider Russian citizens are "victims of Putin's regime" and they havn't suffer under sanctions, they havn't pay reparations after the war, and even more - Russian people have to receive reparations in first order. So, if somebody on the West have some hope on Navalnyi, this is wrong bet. Most of his followers are worse that vatniks.    

  

And one more of "pure gold" from rose pony country of Ruissian liberals

Edited May 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, womble said:

Yeah, it does. There are a couple of those lying around. "GNU Unix" for example... 

Womble just made my “suspicious list”.

[Kinophile]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

(smoothies likely cost much more)

LMAO

[womble]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Womble just made my “suspicious list”.

Wot? Just?

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

BTR-4 near Bakhmut after ATGM hit. Crew survived, vehicle likeky can be repaired.

 

I love the BTR 4. It has its flaws in-game (namely no thermals) but in RL I believe these days a lot of them have better optics. I always clutch my heart whenever I see one damaged/destroyed.

Edited May 23, 2023 by Kinophile

[sross112]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This plus the donated Soviet era aircraft probably brings them back to prewar strength, so that's significant.  The other thing is that the F-16 has capabilities that Soviet type aircraft don't have *and* automatic support for any NATO munition or EW package without the need for special engineering.

It's a really big deal because Russia has been struggling with the depleted Ukrainian airforce with weaponry that they are very familiar with.  Ukraine can now entertain doing very interesting things it previously could not do.

Steve

I see the advantage of using an aircraft that can use all the standard NATO weapons and having a type of airframe that is ubiquitous for spare parts, training, and replacements. That all makes sense. In the last couple days someone posted a twitter thread that basically said the F16 would be at a disadvantage against the RuAF as it had inferior radars and shorter range missiles. It made it sound like they really wouldn't add much for capability other than maybe some cruise missile interception. Also said they would be pretty vulnerable to RA AAA systems. 

Don't know much about air war stuff, so the question to the airplane fellas; does the F16 bring anything to the table that will improve UAF capabilities? or is it just a filler and going to be all show and no go? 

[Beleg85]

That's over, Belgorod People's Republic is on emigration.

Russians needed to bring gen. maj. Lapin (the guy planning Belohorivka crossing and other glorious armoured pushes of this war) at the head of his mechanized forces to make short work with them, only within 36hrs. This account rightly points out that even during staged photo-op operation he make exactly the same tactical mistakes he did during whole war- note how close BMP's are, quite probably already within theoretical artillery range from UA.

Soviet Patch on his arm, Soviet mark in his brain indeed.

 

Edited May 23, 2023 by Beleg85

[Harmon Rabb]

New explosion in Belgorod.