How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

[Taranis]

16 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

My inference from the same facts was exactly the opposite, that they are using all those wheeled vehicles as battle taxis and therefore they will be used dismounted for the breaching phase of the operation. We will see.

I would have imagined at least 2 artillery battalions and a full battalion of tanks for this kind of action. The fact that they depend on the National Guard (which has a role of "police" and "cleaning") is also to be taken into account I think. All we really have to do is wait. If you find any source etc about them, I'll be interested!

[CAZmaj]

Nice!

Ukraine gets US-made ADM-160 decoys

https://defence-blog.com/ukraine-gets-us-made-adm-160-decoys/

[zinz]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

I don't know the answer to the question now, but I will bet a lot of money little expendable robot dogs are going to be a thing

 

3 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

A robot snake would be way better (ur-77 but 1m long) but all of these things really depend on decent artifical muscles existing. More realistic is a remote control barbie corvette with a gopro, mr hanky plush and a brick of explosive and some ball bearing riding shotgun driving down the trench.

To be looking at those videos as a mechanical engineer having anything on the ground with all the rubble, mud, dead people would be extremely difficult to move around. You actually see the solution to this problem in the video.

Deliver enough explosives from the top to break the bunker. An automatic grenade launcher to deliver a couple dozen grenades on top of the bunker would have cracked that one wide open. There are other means of delivering explosives. In another video they are throwing whole bags with explosives on a position and detonating them with wires. 

 

The other alternative is to have a precision weapon. The attack would have looked very veery different with a dozen of hand grenade drones flying into the Russian bunker. I mean for this situation a flight time of 2 minutes would be enough already, but would give the opportunity to deliver drones precisely into holes or around corners. Hell even 5 mavics on rotation dropping a grenade every minute would have been enough to kill all Russians at this location. 

 

For the price of one walking dog or snake you could produce hundreds of short range suicide drones. I mean even in world war II the Germans experimented with remote controlled vehicles. But so far no viable solution was found to deliver explosives on the ground in such an environment. And frankly I believe there never will. Just use the air. It is so so much easier to precisely deliver your cargo. 

[beardiebloke]

Possibly taken out of context but I reckon it's plausible.  RU soldiers being delivered to a treeline with regular trucks, not even up-armored mad max ones.  I thought RU had a zillion BMPs.

 

[Haiduk]

9 hours ago, Artkin said:

A 5km front is not a lot for a single brigade. If you're using two brigades for the 5km - that's a lot of targets in a small location.

That what developing now around Bakhmut is not classical WWII offensive operation with tactical elements not less than battalion or regiment. Despite you hear "3rd assault brigade" or "80th air-assault brigade", etc, indeed this is operation of dozens small pushes of small assault groups on the level of companies under battalion command. Russians in the same way hold multiple dispersed positions of squad/platoon size. So it's not quite coorect to compare this with WWII

[hcrof]

25 minutes ago, zinz said:

 

To be looking at those videos as a mechanical engineer having anything on the ground with all the rubble, mud, dead people would be extremely difficult to move around. You actually see the solution to this problem in the video.

Deliver enough explosives from the top to break the bunker. An automatic grenade launcher to deliver a couple dozen grenades on top of the bunker would have cracked that one wide open. There are other means of delivering explosives. In another video they are throwing whole bags with explosives on a position and detonating them with wires. 

 

The other alternative is to have a precision weapon. The attack would have looked very veery different with a dozen of hand grenade drones flying into the Russian bunker. I mean for this situation a flight time of 2 minutes would be enough already, but would give the opportunity to deliver drones precisely into holes or around corners. Hell even 5 mavics on rotation dropping a grenade every minute would have been enough to kill all Russians at this location. 

 

For the price of one walking dog or snake you could produce hundreds of short range suicide drones. I mean even in world war II the Germans experimented with remote controlled vehicles. But so far no viable solution was found to deliver explosives on the ground in such an environment. And frankly I believe there never will. Just use the air. It is so so much easier to precisely deliver your cargo. 

I wonder if you you make a short ranged projector for a heavy shaped charge that descends at a steep angle onto a target such as a bunker. The weight of a law but with a bigger bang. You could also add some sophisticated accuracy aids to ensure a hit with what is essentially a one-shot mortar. 

A big shaped charge landing from above would easily take out a bunker, armoured vehicle or troops in cover and wouldn't need to be super heavy if you accepted a range of 200-300m or so. 

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Someone on twitter pointed out Wagner has explicit interest in showing MoD failures, whether or not they are true, Rybar is affiliated with Wagner no? Remember that as RU mil bloggers complain about the retreats. 

Some Russians have semi-joke conspiracy that "Stalingrad scenario" (collapsed weak flanks and encirclement of main forces inside the city) is a revenge of Shouigu to Prigiozyn. In this vendetta in struggle for (future?) political influence lives of Vanyas don't matter.

Edited May 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Intersting hint from guy who involved on nothern flank

- I say only one word and that one, who in theme will understand: Berkhivka

 - Water reservoir or you are already in the village?

- Silence for now ....

 

[Haiduk]

Troopers of 80th air-assault brigade on seized positions of Russian VDV counterparts in Ivanivskyi forest.

On southern flank Ukraine forces have enough shock elements - 3rd assault brigade (at least two battalions), 80th air-assault brigade (at least one batatlion), 24th separate assault battalion "Aydar" of 53rd mech.brigade, volunteer recon battalion "Sonechko" ("Sunny")

Yesterday info about 36th marines on northern flank likely was misspeling, probably author of post about "36th brigade" meant 56th mot.inf.brigade.

 

[Haiduk]

New strike in Luhansk. Building of former Internal affairs academy was hit

 

[Peregrine]

26 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some Russians have semi-joke conspiracy that "Stalingrad scenario" (collapsed weak flanks and encirclement of main forces inside the city) is a revenge of Shouigu to Prigiozyn. In this vendetta in struggle for (future?) political influence lives of Vanyas don't matter.

The "lives of Vanyas don't matter" seems to be standard in all situations. No conspiracy there.

[Der Zeitgeist]

Luhansk strikes are pretty much confirmed Stom Shadow, by now.

 

[Thomm]

Wouldn't molotovs help with those bunker assaults, by means of smoke generation, at the very least?

[Holien]

11 minutes ago, Thomm said:

Wouldn't molotovs help with those bunker assaults, by means of smoke generation, at the very least?

Yes but not so easy to carry into combat and rolling around in combat with them might be a bit too dangerous. 

Carrying flammable liquid around in glass has some challenges. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

EDIT: HARMs on stations 3 & 4, and R-73s on stations 5 & 6.

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[Doc844]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Finally got to watching the last (for now) K2 video of "Cyclops"

 

 

Thoughts from the pros?

Steve

An old pro here, *cough*16 years *cough* since I had my uniform on.  Time flies.  We were always taught grenade or grenades, then straight in, over battlesights, single shots, one left, one right, sweep arcs, third man down the middle.  All dependant of size and what your assaulting obviously.  Good example is the video of the grenadier guards   in Helmand. 

However we did know of an excellent way of clearing bunkers that were tight, confined with little airflow.  Smoke grenades.  Bang one of them in and I can honestly say from experience that you can not breath, instant oxygen deprivation.  You will either come running out with your lungs screaming or stay inside and be incapacitated to some degree. 

Very effective.

[Huba]

2 hours ago, hcrof said:

I wonder if you you make a short ranged projector for a heavy shaped charge that descends at a steep angle onto a target such as a bunker. The weight of a law but with a bigger bang. You could also add some sophisticated accuracy aids to ensure a hit with what is essentially a one-shot mortar. 

A big shaped charge landing from above would easily take out a bunker, armoured vehicle or troops in cover and wouldn't need to be super heavy if you accepted a range of 200-300m or so. 

There's going to be a moment when these quadcopters that record all the videos will start being equipped with laser designators. One can be carried by the assault team as well. Have a 120mm/81mm mortar on standby firing laser-guided projectiles (or a 155mm, or 70m rocket launcher or...) and the impact on fight like this will be tremendous. All the pieces to make it work are already there.

Edited May 13, 2023 by Huba

[chuckdyke]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thoughts from the pros?

My father was still spitting blood ten years after entering a house, thought it was ok after a grenade. I am not a pro lol.

[pintere]

Duplicate 

Edited May 13, 2023 by pintere

[Beleg85]

Something bad fo Russians is happening in Bryanks region- aviation there is falling down like ducks. At least one Mi-8 was shot down by Manpad, there are early reports of another helicopter and even fighter...town is 50kms from Ukraine border.

Yep, SU-34 reportedly down as well.

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by Beleg85

[DesertFox]

9 minutes ago, pintere said:

Looks like Germany’s really stepping it up! They’re sending a new 2.7 billion Euro package to Ukraine that includes, among other things, 30 Leo-1s, 20 Marders, 15 Gepards and 4 IRIS-T-SLM AA systems.

https://amp.dw.com/en/germany-to-send-ukraine-27-billion-military-aid-package/a-65612028

Apparently it’s their single biggest package of military aid yet.

Among other things, Pistorius seems to have made a change. Finally!

[Nastypastie]

41 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

•  

AIM-9 !

The forward wings are more forward and shorter on a Sidewinder. Looks like an AIM7 Sparrow except I believe the rear fins should be pointed, not cropped. No idea what this is if not a Sparrow.

Edited May 13, 2023 by Nastypastie

[Billy Ringo]

24 minutes ago, Huba said:

There's going to be a moment when these quadcopters that record all the videos will start being equipped with laser designators. One can be carried by the assault team as well. Have a 120mm/81mm mortar on standby firing laser-guided projectiles (or a 155mm, or 70m rocket launcher or...) and the impact on fight like this will be tremendous. All the pieces to make it work are already there.

Have a feeling we'll see a lot of new "pieces" being used when Ukraine kicks off the offensive.  Precision, disruptive electronic warfare and deeper range being just three of the surprises.   There has been a lot of prep time and training over the last 6 months for the Ukrainians.  Will be interesting to see how it's used.

[DesertFox]

Not that I had any doubt, but now we have proof. Storm Shadow for the win!

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1657323371812601858?s=20

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1657020349479809025?s=20

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by DesertFox