How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

ISTR that year gas is a no no in a military context because of the prohibition on chemical weapons. Tear gas is - again, ISTR - included in order to avoid accidental escalation.

As for the dude not following up immediately on the grenade, that could be for loads of reasons - a hinky feeling, convering fire from another position (too much if it was enemy, not enough if it was friendly), fear, confusion, inexperience, a weapon jam, uncertainty about the position and the enemy, his boss suddenly calling him back for some reason, some piece of equipment breaking, twisting an ankle, and so on.

Soldiers aren't like pawns on a chessboard, that always and only do what they're 'supposed' to do

Dammit not even in CMBS. 

I said run TOWARDS the impacting 152s, you useless pixel! 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, JonS said:

ISTR that year gas is a no no in a military context because of the prohibition on chemical weapons. Tear gas is - again, ISTR - included in order to avoid accidental escalation.

Thanks for the clarification.  Always odd to see a non-lethal weapon banned in favor of lethal ones, but I do understand the logic.

4 hours ago, JonS said:

As for the dude not following up immediately on the grenade, that could be for loads of reasons - a hinky feeling, convering fire from another position (too much if it was enemy, not enough if it was friendly), fear, confusion, inexperience, a weapon jam, uncertainty about the position and the enemy, his boss suddenly calling him back for some reason, some piece of equipment breaking, twisting an ankle, and so on.

Soldiers aren't like pawns on a chessboard, that always and only do what they're 'supposed' to do

Heh... the basis of Combat Mission right there

But I'm not hung up on this one example.  I was just using it because most of us just watched it.  I've seen this sort of "toss and wait" thing in many, if not most, of the trench clearing videos.  I do understand the psychological issues as well as the practical in many of the situations.  Fighting in zig-zag slit trenches without a direct feed from a drone is extremely dangerous and uncertain.  However, the times I've seen a bunch of grenades thrown into the same bunker without immediate followup is quite common.  Maybe even the norm.  In quite a few it's clear that all that happens is consume a bunch of grenades without doing much of anything (i.e. the defenders are not harmed).

Anyway, just something I'm going to continue keeping an eye on.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

On the other hand, if Vova get crazy, he could try to sweeten his gruelling Ukrainian defeat wirh Belarus incorporation...war is going bad, probably even he understand that, so he may be tempted to show he is still able to shake things up. No logic in it, but there are undoubtedly behind-the-curtain factors we don't know yet.

Ooo... that's something I hadn't thought of.  There is a possibility that Putin has become frustrated/concerned by Luka to such an extent that he thinks it's better to roll the dice on a replacement situation rather than stick with the "devil you know".  Maybe it is a combo where Luka's health is naturally failing and Putin is concerned that if he doesn't act now someone else might get lined up to take over.

Damn, there are so many plausible scenarios thanks to the major players being sociopaths.

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

I am very interested in this angle since we have young friends from Belarus trying to get their family out of there into the US. We have never talked much about the war since the situation is very troubling to this couple. They came to the US on work Visas and did everything right in the hope to get their parents into the US. College grads etc. Couple got married without their parents being at the ceremony. If you have a link to post, it would be great. 

No link as it's just an assumption I have.  The Belarus units in Ukraine are there because they believe there can be no improvement in Belarus with Russia undefeated.  Which means their primary motivation to fight and die in Ukraine is for Belarus' interests first, Ukraine's second (I am sure it is a close second).  If some sort of fight breaks out within Belarus, it's hard to imagine these guys wouldn't want to go back and tip the scales a bit.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

So what would happen if Minsk would erupt in street protests right now? Does Russia have enough soldiers on hand to stop things?

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

So what would happen if Minsk would erupt in street protests right now? Does Russia have enough soldiers on hand to stop things?

Belarus likely does on its own but it would...as last time did...require commitment of supporting resources from Russia. And Russia could probably supply those resources but not without further diminishing what it needs to hold off what Ukraine is planning to do shortly. 

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Belarus likely does on its own but it would...as last time did...require commitment of supporting resources from Russia. And Russia could probably supply those resources but not without further diminishing what it needs to hold off what Ukraine is planning to do shortly. 

If it looks like things in Belarus are on a knife edge we need to make the upper layer of the Belarusian military some truly spectacular retirement offers. If they declared  for the President in Exile,  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sviatlana_Tsikhanouskaya, and Minsk rose in a mass uprising, Putin would be in one heck of a pickle. And if he just tries too outright invade the place, we should tell the Poles they can join the party. There are about nine optimistic assumptions/lucky breaks in that scenario, but if it worked it would be the complete ruin of Putin's dreams.

Edited May 14, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

So what would happen if Minsk would erupt in street protests right now? Does Russia have enough soldiers on hand to stop things?

It really depends on what the Belarusian forces do.  They struggled to keep the peace two years ago even with the help of Russia.  Imagine if some portion of them switched sides?  Russia would then have to not only put down unarmed civilians, but also armed ones.

I do not know enough about the internal workings of Belarus, but from the little I know there could be a situation akin to Romania December 1989.  Things were going from bad to worse VERY fast as the Soviet Union and neighboring countries' Communist governments fell like dominoes.  Unlike the other countries, in Romania's case things got very violent as the government initially tried to crack down on growing protests.  Fortunately, their heart wasn't in it.  A reason I've seen cited is that they were poorly treated, impoverished conscripts who probably had more reasons to join the revolution than to oppose it.  When the Minister of Defense was either murdered or committed suicide instead of ordering the army to slaughter civilians, the military revolted and fought against regime holdouts.

That's the sort of thing I picture happening in Belarus.  Tons of people going out into the streets, a couple of days of bloody fighting, the military either in favor of a change of government or not knowing how hard to oppose it, and whatever decision the military makes determining if the government collapses or tries to regain control.

The difference with Romania is that the Soviet Union was not deeply embedded in Romania and it had its own problems to deal with (Lithuania foremost).  So it wasn't really a factor.  Belarus is not so lucky.  There are some Russian forces in Belarus and of course the political and security apparatus are heavily influenced by Russia.  If the Belarus military defects, I can see a sort of Finland 1944 situation developing where Russian forces are (theoretically) allowed to leave without a fight.  But if they stay, then there's going to be a fight.

Interesting days ahead!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If it looks like things in Belarus are on a knife edge we need to make the upper layer of the Belarusian military some truly spectacular retirement offers. If they declared  for the President in Exile,  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sviatlana_Tsikhanouskaya, and Minsk rose in a mass uprising, Putin would be in one heck of a pickle. And if he just tries too outright invade the place, we should tell the Poles they can join the party. There about nine optimistic assumptions/lucky breaks in that scenario, but if it worked it would be the complete ruin of Putin's dreams.

We cross posted, so thanks for reminding me about this angle.

It is definitely worth noting that unlike Russia now or Romania in 1989, Belarus has an established and internationally acknowledged (officially not recognized) "government in exile" right over the border.  It would not take much within Belarus for countries to start recognizing the exiles and that could have a big impact on what happens within Belarus.

Steve

[Artkin]

Belarus has a couple corps worth of forces for their entire military. At this point their army isn't even worth considering. It would be a slaughter and open the flood gates for new Ukrainian equipment. 

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Belarus has a couple corps worth of forces for their entire military. At this point their army isn't even worth considering. It would be a slaughter and open the flood gates for new Ukrainian equipment. 

Armed scenarios are:

1.  Belarusian military + Belarusian security + Russian forces vs. Belarusian citizens

2.  Belarusian military (partial) + Belarusian security + Russian forces vs. Belarusian citizens + Belarusian military (partial)

3.  Belarusian security + Russian forces vs. Belarusian citizens + Belarusian military

4.  Russian forces vs. Belarusian citizens + Belarusian military + Belarusian security

I do not see a scenario with Belarusian forces and Ukrainian forces being in meaningful conflict with each other.  It is also possible that the Belarusian security apparatus dissolves instead of resisting, moving into Russia much like Yanukovych's goons went to Crimea ahead of Russia's invasion.  Except for local cops, I don't see the security apparatus fracturing.

#1 is most likely the way it would start out as the collapse of totalitarian regimes generally begins with all armed groups initially staying with the government.  However, if control is not firmly reestablished quickly the military often waivers with some forces joining the opposition and others staying with the regime (#2 scenario) *or* it quickly transitions to military vs. security forces *or* skips a step and goes right to supporting government transition.

The wildcard in this case is Russian forces already in Belarus and those that could be deployed there from within Russia.  Russia doesn't have much it can invest.  Russian units in Belarus are mostly, at this point, non-combat units.  If there are any Spring conscripts training there they have only a couple of weeks of training (at best) and technically can not be used for fighting.

For sure Russia can move combat (I include security forces as combat) units in at any time.  I am guessing some are already on their way if not already in there (especially if Putin poisoned him).  These units can't be large in headcount or even capabilities due to Russia's own needs for them at home and in Ukraine.  I think we're talking thousands, not tens of thousands. 

I'm not sure if Kadyrov would send anything other than a couple of bearded TikTokers with GoPros strapped to their genitals.  I doubt he'd send any significant force so far away from home when things are no doubt about to get very touchy within Russia.

My overall thinking is that if Belarusian military units decide to oppose a Russian backed coup, there's not much Russia can do to stop it.  I just don't see it being feasible for them to commit the number of forces that would be necessary to combat 10s of thousands of armed Belarusian military. 

Steve

 

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

If some sort of fight breaks out within Belarus, it's hard to imagine these guys wouldn't want to go back and tip the scales a bit.

Many of the young from Belarus left before 2022. All they want is to move their families out of the former USSR. Many do not have any wishes to go back. They may go back as part of small teams to bring people out. Perhaps armed teams. But never to stay in Belarus for a generation at least. Wish there was a link to this. Sometimes I speak to the husband very quietly about the war. It's a really sensitive thing - for his new wife - and for a young couple who love everything about America while their parents live in public housing far away. 

[Battlefront.com]

Misc. info about current events:

1.  Washington Post story about what's going on in Bakhmut.  They interviewed leadership of 3rd Assault Brigade and 127th TD Brigade.  The story was published 2 days ago and it doesn't tell us anything we don't already know in general terms, but there were some details that were interesting.  Like Wagnerites getting into a building defended by the 127th by scaling 3 floors and coming from above.  After intense close combat the Wagnerites were pushed out.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/12/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-prigozhin/

2.  Another Washington Post article, based on the Discord leaks, discussing Zelensky's various scenarios for bringing the war into Russian territory:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/13/zelensky-ukraine-war-leaked-documents/

3.  Official confirmation that two Patriot missiles took out the Kinzhal which was sent to destroy the Patriot battery.  Already covered here, but just pointing out that the MSM is acknowledging it as definitive:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/12/politics/russia-patriot-missiles-ukraine

4.  For fun, the pro-Russians are feeling a little unloved so they did some creative video editing, map making, and disputing Ukraine's "claim" to a victory it never made claim to.  Hey, whatever makes themselves feel better:

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Many of the young from Belarus left before 2022. All they want is to move their families out of the former USSR. Many do not have any wishes to go back. They may go back as part of small teams to bring people out. Perhaps armed teams. But never to stay in Belarus for a generation at least. Wish there was a link to this. Sometimes I speak to the husband very quietly about the war. It's a really sensitive thing - for his new wife - and for a young couple who love everything about America while their parents live in public housing far away. 

I think you are missing an important point... I'm talking exclusively of the Belarusian volunteers in military units in Ukraine fighting Russians, not civilian diaspora.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting thread from Chris_O about Russian Army desertions.  Not surprisingly they are dramatically on the increase.  The most important sign of where things are at is these deserters are, for the most part, not going to jail but instead confined to bases.  Easier to send them to Ukraine if they are in a base instead of a jailcell.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

A possible glimpse at what Ukraine is aiming for with the counter offensive:

Quote

"And believe me, when we are on the administrative borders of Crimea, support for him (Putin - ed.) inside will be reduced. His inner circle, business will put pressure on him to find a way out. And they will have to find it. It won't be long now," Zelensky said.

Source: https://censor.net/en/n3418219

Basically, Zelensky is saying that if Ukrainian forces seal off Crimea from the current land bridge, at that point the Russian people are going to pressure Putin to negotiate.  We've speculated here some about this scenario and, I think, "it has legs".  Especially for those living in Crimea.  I can see the worst of the Russians leaving for good and the remaining population wanting to find a way out before it's too late.

I think the only way Putin will give in to such pressure is if he's dead, so there is that

Steve

[MikeyD]

Steve is on the east coast, not the west, so he is indeed posting after 2am. I've never before met anyone who has a worse sleep schedule than me

 

[Haiduk]

Russians "cossackship" in Australia %)

 

 

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, chrisl said:

Something I've wondered about a bit is what those berm-enclosed spaces are for in the Ukrainian farm fields, like in the the picture that I left in the quote.  There was one near the battle of of the T, too.   They don't look like they're used as a divider between fields - the tree strips seem to serve that function. They look a bit like they could be seasonal reservoirs, but they don't have obvious inlets and outlets, or indications that they have variable water levels.  

They do break up lines of sight and make somewhat natural defensive positions in the open spaces.  

So does anybody know what they are/what they're called?

This is abandoned Soviet-time water reservoirs for watering of fields. Despite many small rivers and creeks around, Donbas is enough hot and dry place in summer, so in USSR times large "kolhozes" (state agricultural enterprises - usually they were in each village or on the base of several small villages) accumulating a water in these reservoires for the case of drought. But with collapsing of USSR and "kolhozes" infrastructure of such reservoirs declined. I think it could be filled with pumps and hoses system, connecting to closest source of water. And in the same way with pump and hoses the water then feed watering systems, placed on the fields. 

Edited May 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[Offshoot]

55 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians "cossackship" in Australia %)

 

 

There is a group in Australia called the Australian Cossacks. Their leader has been hiding in the Russian consulate since December to avoid criminal charges and asked Wagner to organise a prisoner swap, exchanging him for a future captured Australian volunteer in Ukraine - https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/hiding-in-the-russian-consulate-for-months-aussie-cossack-demands-a-prisoner-swap-20230405-p5cyb5.html

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

There is a group in Australia called the Australian Cossacks. Their leader has been hiding in the Russian consulate since December to avoid criminal charges and asked Wagner to organise a prisoner swap, exchanging him for a future captured Australian volunteer in Ukraine - https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/hiding-in-the-russian-consulate-for-months-aussie-cossack-demands-a-prisoner-swap-20230405-p5cyb5.html

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

[Hister]

13 hours ago, chrisl said:

Something I've wondered about a bit is what those berm-enclosed spaces are for in the Ukrainian farm fields, like in the the picture that I left in the quote.  There was one near the battle of of the T, too.   They don't look like they're used as a divider between fields - the tree strips seem to serve that function. They look a bit like they could be seasonal reservoirs, but they don't have obvious inlets and outlets, or indications that they have variable water levels.  

They do break up lines of sight and make somewhat natural defensive positions in the open spaces.  

So does anybody know what they are/what they're called?

Historical earthworks against nomads?

[Haiduk]

40 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

I suppose, 124th brigade is new number for 4th brigade after 2AK of LPR became a part of Russian army. 2nd LPR brigade, for example, became 123nd brigade. Russians claim both high-ranked officers (brigade commander and deputy "zampolit" of 2AK) were killed, personally repelling UKR assaults, but our sources say in one episode, personnel of enemy brigade rejected to move on positions without high-ranked officer, so brigade commander was forced to lead them personally and they all were hit by arty fire. 

Russians for now recognized only two officers, but even LPR TGs already recognized three - except this two losses they confirmed death of brigade's chief of staff and injuring of deputy commander.

[Beleg85]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

My overall thinking is that if Belarusian military units decide to oppose a Russian backed coup, there's not much Russia can do to stop it.  I just don't see it being feasible for them to commit the number of forces that would be necessary to combat 10s of thousands of armed Belarusian military. 

Steve

All internal polls show that Belarussians are thouruoghly pacified society- their lossess in WWII were largest by percent (circa 30%+), even greater than in Poland. They have culturally ingrained fear of armed conflict. So any potentiall Kremlin-appointed successor of Lukashenka would need to firmly promise they will not join the war, and keep its promise whole time. On the other side, opposition leaders abroad are also often considereed a wild card, and domestic ones (support for them is not small, but also not widespread) are kept in check for now.

So yeah, this whole delicate balance could fall apart like house of cards the moment Luka kick the bucket- not good for Putin at all in current situation.

Ukrainian AF speaker claims it was Russian AA downed yesterday's airframes. Can be Ukrainian psyops, ofc.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1657696021583888384

 

Edited May 14, 2023 by Beleg85

[Probus]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Armed scenarios are:

1.  Belarusian military + Belarusian security + Russian forces vs. Belarusian citizens

2.  Belarusian military (partial) + Belarusian security + Russian forces vs. Belarusian citizens + Belarusian military (partial)

3.  Belarusian security + Russian forces vs. Belarusian citizens + Belarusian military

4.  Russian forces vs. Belarusian citizens + Belarusian military + Belarusian security

I do not see a scenario with Belarusian forces and Ukrainian forces being in meaningful conflict with each other.  It is also possible that the Belarusian security apparatus dissolves instead of resisting, moving into Russia much like Yanukovych's goons went to Crimea ahead of Russia's invasion.  Except for local cops, I don't see the security apparatus fracturing.

#1 is most likely the way it would start out as the collapse of totalitarian regimes generally begins with all armed groups initially staying with the government.  However, if control is not firmly reestablished quickly the military often waivers with some forces joining the opposition and others staying with the regime (#2 scenario) *or* it quickly transitions to military vs. security forces *or* skips a step and goes right to supporting government transition.

The wildcard in this case is Russian forces already in Belarus and those that could be deployed there from within Russia.  Russia doesn't have much it can invest.  Russian units in Belarus are mostly, at this point, non-combat units.  If there are any Spring conscripts training there they have only a couple of weeks of training (at best) and technically can not be used for fighting.

For sure Russia can move combat (I include security forces as combat) units in at any time.  I am guessing some are already on their way if not already in there (especially if Putin poisoned him).  These units can't be large in headcount or even capabilities due to Russia's own needs for them at home and in Ukraine.  I think we're talking thousands, not tens of thousands. 

I'm not sure if Kadyrov would send anything other than a couple of bearded TikTokers with GoPros strapped to their genitals.  I doubt he'd send any significant force so far away from home when things are no doubt about to get very touchy within Russia.

My overall thinking is that if Belarusian military units decide to oppose a Russian backed coup, there's not much Russia can do to stop it.  I just don't see it being feasible for them to commit the number of forces that would be necessary to combat 10s of thousands of armed Belarusian military. 

Steve

 

Might be time for a "How Hot is Belarus Gonna get?" thread...