How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Here is locations of Luhansk objects, being struck today (interesting that 12th of May is "Republic Day" in LPR)

The mark close to city center is former Polypack factory, turned by Russians into vehicle repairing facility and logistic center.

Sounthern mark - fuel depot.

So there are two impact sites? Very good. Doublestrike!

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I think you might have picked the wrong level to show where RUS army really lacks NCOs in the sense of the function being not exactly unfulfilled, but collapsed with other functions and thrown at the men who already has too much to do.

You're missing a critical element here... training and experience.  The peacetime Soviet/Russian system, as designed, had command functions centralized on the officer.  If the officer is absent from the unit, the "seniors" (what passes for an NCO in Russian structures) take over.  But they lack the tools needed to truly lead the unit.  At best they can keep the enlisted on task performing a job that the officer explicitly instructed them to do.  But what happens when the officer is killed or just plain incompetent?  In the US system there's usually as many as 6-8 NCOs capable of carrying on indefinitely.  That's a lot of redundancy that the Russian system, by design, doesn't have.

The reasoning for this is pretty clear.  NCOs are expensive.  They cost lots of money to train and retain.  Two things that Russia has never shown an interest in doing.  So their NCOs get rudimentary training, if that, on how to replace an officer and then they cycle out due to lack of pay, housing, and other things that keep a US NCO on the job.

The folly of this system is easily seen in this war.  Russia went in with a thin theoretical command structure which was, thanks to corruption and other problems, significantly worse than the paper strength.  We saw ample evidence of this at the start of the war when unit rosters were leaked to the public.  The officers and seniors that did make it into Ukraine were largely poor quality compared to NATO standards, so before the war even started they had too few effective low level leaders to manage the tasks heaped upon them.

Adding to this really, really poor state of leadership before the first shot was fired was all the shots fired   We don't know what the casualty % of pre-war leadership is, but we know it is exceptionally high.  Cumulatively?  I'm going to guess 300% (as was the case for US LTs in NW Europe) is not out of the question.  That means most of the pre-war leadership is dead, wounded, or out of uniform for some other reason.  Who is replacing them?  Whichever guy in the unit seems to be the least bad choice.  Maybe he served 5 years ago in some senior position, maybe not.  And as this war has dragged on the chances that there's a fresh pool of reserve leaders is getting smaller.

To summarize; Russia's prewar leadership concept was poorly designed, its execution was half assed, is not being properly maintained, and is now (largely?) replaced by random guys filling leadership positions simply because of the new guys chosen still have a pulse.

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Platoon is a platoon, but according to our guys, Russians have too few men in the staff functions at the battalion and brigade level. And the missing people are indeed professional NCOs who in NATO armies support junior staff officers, who in Russian army have to do all those jobs themselves. Which negatively impacts quality of staff work.

Just to reiterate, the other problem is that the breadth and depth of military matters Russian officers and seniors are trained to do is narrower and less professionalized to start with.  Guys with 2 years experience managing a McDonald's aren't in the same league as a guy with 10 years experience managing a Michelin Star restaurant.  Doesn't matter that their titles both say "Manager".

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

PS. Russians do not have a function named assistant squad leader, but I do not think it matters. There are 6 dismounts in full size squad, there is no reason to think that the man commanding them would be overwhelmed.

Oh, it matters.  Those 6 dismounts are more-often-than-not conscripts or short term contract soldiers.  If the senior away or a casualty, there's nobody within the unit to replace him.  Though these days there is, simply because the senior is as unqualified to lead the unit as any of the rest of them.

Steve

P.S.  the above is focused on the usual Russian unit.  VDV, Spetsnaz, and Marine units have traditionally had better training and leadership than other units.  However, it's been noted that is not being maintained thanks to losses.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Here is locations of Luhansk objects, being struck today (interesting that 12th of May is "Republic Day" in LPR)

The mark close to city center is former "Poly-pack" factory, turned by Russians into vehicle repairing facility and logistic center.

Sounthern mark - fuel depot.

The building in the video has a small ground footprint and 5? floors.  That's a very unusual building to be a factory of some sort.  Also poor choice for a logistics center as you'd really want everything to be on one floor with, maybe, administrative functions on a second one.  I think there's a piece of information that is incorrect, including the possibility that the wrong building was hit.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

6 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Sevastopol is fair game. Ukrainian territory is being defined by the 1991 borders. So strikes into Crimea are not considered cross border strikes.

The (military)port was leased to Russia until Russia terminated the agreement for full annexation. "Kharkiv Pact"

So the argument could be made but I would disagree with it.

[Kinophile]

59 minutes ago, Baneman said:

I could have a go, but then again, I never actually got my degree and your question is poorly phrased - I'm a Roman history guy, but you want a Byzantine history guy 

Aha you saw my trap! But unfortunately for you there was a trap inside the trap. SAD!

@billbindc stepped over both (Eadem lingua loquimur).

Edited May 12, 2023 by Kinophile

[DesertFox]

15 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Sevastopol is fair game. Ukrainian territory is being defined by the 1991 borders. So strikes into Crimea are not considered cross border strikes.

 

 

[dan/california]

They don't seem to want to put any of that ammo back on the truck.

[Battlefront.com]

10 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Ffs. Skinny white arrows of utter speculation and daydreaming. 

 

 

Getting back to this one... while I generally scoff at people who draw arrows on maps (except mine, because they are beautiful!), this is not one of those times.  The white arrows represent roughly 10km as the crow flies.  That might be 9 months' worth of advances for Ukraine, but in Kharkiv they did that in a day.  Why?  Because the local defenses collapsed. 

We have seen two collapses so far since this counter attack started, Russia has announced retreats, and the UA is not indicating that they are done yet.

The positions occupied around Bakhmut are extremely vulnerable and any Russian in those positions knows it.  At best (for Russia) I'd expect to see them do an orderly withdrawal across the rather tiny river and try to anchor in the urban terrain on the eastern side.  That would be a major defeat for Russia as it would be clear that they will never gain Bakhmut.

The worst case (again, for Russia) is that they really aren't prepared to fight in depth and find themselves forces out of Bakhmut entirely.  There's little defensible terrain to the east for about 10km.  Again, if they aren't prepared to fight in depth they will be obligated to retreat further.  And if they go that far back, Soledar and everything west of it is then likely up for retaking because M-03 highway will be cut off.

This can be done by Ukraine with possibly no more than an additional brigade committed north of Soledar.  I doubt Russia's positions there are substantially better and, when they feel pressure coming from the south, will change the situation dramatically.

All speculation of course, but I can easily picture a pretty significant improvement in Ukraine's frontlines with very little additional effort invested.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, dan/california said:

They don't seem to want to put any of that ammo back on the truck.

I wonder if this was part of the large amount of weaponry/ammo that was intercepted last year going to Yemen.  At the time it was thought it would wind up in Ukraine sooner rather than later.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Bakhmut holds a lot of significance for Russia, might be better to only devote enough to force Russian reserves to be invested and then strike elsewhere instead of a attempt to encircle Wagner in the city.

[FancyCat]

I don’t think it’s anything except probing but it’s interesting nonetheless.

 

[Kinophile]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Getting back to this one... while I generally scoff at people who draw arrows on maps (except mine, because they are beautiful!), this is not one of those times.  The white arrows represent roughly 10km as the crow flies.  That might be 9 months' worth of advances for Ukraine, but in Kharkiv they did that in a day.  Why?  Because the local defenses collapsed. 

We have seen two collapses so far since this counter attack started, Russia has announced retreats, and the UA is not indicating that they are done yet.

The positions occupied around Bakhmut are extremely vulnerable and any Russian in those positions knows it.  At best (for Russia) I'd expect to see them do an orderly withdrawal across the rather tiny river and try to anchor in the urban terrain on the eastern side.  That would be a major defeat for Russia as it would be clear that they will never gain Bakhmut.

The worst case (again, for Russia) is that they really aren't prepared to fight in depth and find themselves forces out of Bakhmut entirely.  There's little defensible terrain to the east for about 10km.  Again, if they aren't prepared to fight in depth they will be obligated to retreat further.  And if they go that far back, Soledar and everything west of it is then likely up for retaking because M-03 highway will be cut off.

This can be done by Ukraine with possibly no more than an additional brigade committed north of Soledar.  I doubt Russia's positions there are substantially better and, when they feel pressure coming from the south, will change the situation dramatically.

All speculation of course, but I can easily picture a pretty significant improvement in Ukraine's frontlines with very little additional effort invested.

Steve

Is Kharkiv really a good reference here? It was very much deprioritised at the time, the MoD had made quite overt that Kherson was what mattered and the terrain favoured such rapid movement.

Bakhmut and beyond it are basically infested with Russian units. Despite the defensive posture along the entire front, and the obvious command issues both internally to units and between them,  the Russian weight of forces is very much around (north/south/south west) Donetsk.

This is why I'm skeptical of the little white arrows. 

[Battlefront.com]

Another video showing two perspectives of the same attack.

Things to note:

1.  Ukraine had the time and resources to hit this with THREE kamikaze drones

2.  First hit bounced off of the mesh without detonating

3.  Second hit detonated (on the mesh?) and caused some wounds.  Everybody jumped out

4.  Third hit did what it was supposed to and the MTLB is no more.  Catastrophic fire burned it up (final segment obviously taken after fire died out).

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Is Kharkiv really a good reference here? It was very much deprioritised at the time, the MoD had made quite overt that Kherson was what mattered and the terrain favoured such rapid movement.

Oh, I certainly don't think Ukraine will get around to the eastern side of Bakhmut in a day, though I do say it is possible.  But a couple of days?  I think it could happen if Ukraine a) wants to and b) Russia's defenders aren't able to defend.

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Bakhmut and beyond it are basically infested with Russian units. Despite the defensive posture along the entire front, and the obvious command issues both internally to units and between them,  the Russian weight of forces is very much around (north/south/south west) Donetsk.

For sure this is true, but just as "beauty is only skin deep" the ability to defend might be very different than the appearance of being able to defend.  We don't really know yet how bad things on the Russian side, but so far "not good" seems to be a good guess.

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

This is why I'm skeptical of the little white arrows. 

If Ukraine pushes hard and more Russian units break, then the white arrows are very realistic in my view.  However, if Russia can mount a decent showing defensively, then I think Ukraine will just dig in and wait for another opportunity.  As I have said before, and FancyCat just said, Ukraine can not allow this area to be a distraction for its main priority.  It's fine if Russia is distracted by it though

Ukraine should be going for low hanging fruit in the Donbas and if there isn't any, then staying put is the best option.

Steve

[womble]

53 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Nope, widely accepted to be a highly illegal project that grossly violates Ukraine's sovereignty.

Splendid point, well made  So down to the escalation-prognosticators as to whether breaking it with Storm Shadow will send Putin nuclear (my prognostication: they'll decide it won't). Sayonara Kerch Bridge, then.

55 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

That argument might be able to be made against the Russian navy in Russian ports like Sevastopol. Still, I do not think even this is the case.

I certainly agree there. The naval assets in Sevastopol are "inside Ukraine's territory", for sure. 

[Battlefront.com]

Another decent video of a small scale Ukrainian attack on the usual Russian bunker system.  It is as we have seen before with a tank going out on its own, shooting things up, then an IFV dropping off a squad to clean things up.  The tank almost got hit by (probably) a disposable RPG. 

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

2 hours ago, photon said:

I wonder what platform the Ukranians will launch (are launching?) the Storm Shadow from? Have they adapted it to their Soviet platforms like the HARM?

SU-24, most likely. SU-27 is also possible but not MiG-29.

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The building in the video has a small ground footprint and 5? floors.  That's a very unusual building to be a factory of some sort.  Also poor choice for a logistics center as you'd really want everything to be on one floor with, maybe, administrative functions on a second one.  I think there's a piece of information that is incorrect, including the possibility that the wrong building was hit.

Steve

On new video, where some Russian military told how "fascists have struck peaceful city, where no military", we can see destroyed facility in more stable picture. This is territory of abandoned "Donets" plant (produced heavy equipment for mines), locals also name it "100th plant" - "Poly-pack" is across the street. Ruined building is a part of business consalting center, which use several buildings of plant. And judging to the panorama of explosions - both hits were on territory of this plant. Though, some of locals say about three missiles, but the third probably could be ADM-160.

 

[Kinophile]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine should be going for low hanging fruit in the Donbas and if there isn't any, then staying put is the best option.

Agreed

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

3.  Second hit detonated (on the mesh?) and caused some wounds.  Everybody jumped out

Russian text says drone has flew directly in the open hatch

[sburke]

heh I really love this guy.

Zelenskyy predicts deaths of Kremlin officials: Medvedev experiences aggressive outburst (yahoo.com)

"Our people are the priority; our land is the priority. And those in the Kremlin, believe me, they will end up badly. I don't know how, to be honest, but I would like things to end as soon as possible. But they will definitely not end up dying naturally."

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I don’t think it’s anything except probing but it’s interesting nonetheless.

 

OK, so what we have are probing and/or distraction attacks in the middle left and middle right of the front.  Obviously such attacks are expected ahead of any operations in the area, which of course is what we are all expecting

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

On new video, where some Russian military told how "fascists have struck peaceful city, where no military", we can see destroyed facility in more stable picture. This is territory of abandoned "Donets" plant (produced heavy equipment for mines), locals also name it "100th plant" - "Poly-pack" is across the street. Ruined building is a part of business consalting center, which use several buildings of plant. And judging to the panorama of explosions - both hits were on territory of this plant. Though, some of locals say about three missiles, but the third probably could be ADM-160.

 

OK, that makes a lot more sense!  So it is a large facility encompassing several buildings.  The one displayed behind this poor excuse for a man, and seen in the other video, was likely admin/design or some other function.  Across the street, which was barely shown in the previous camera, there was evidence of damage though it could have been from the blast across the street.

Steve

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, photon said:

I wonder what platform the Ukranians will launch (are launching?) the Storm Shadow from? Have they adapted it to their Soviet platforms like the HARM?

Su-24. Works with adaptation had been conducting since November 2022 in Poland on one experimental bomber. There is a leakage took place in media about these works, but all rumors then were refuted. 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

One more video from Luhansk. Local "authorities" claimed the strike was conducted with "Hrim-2" LoL )))

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Haiduk