How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Endyamon]

36 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I really hope you are right. You are probably are...

But we can go on a larger conventional war on multiple fronts for years before turning nuclear(if ever) . And that will ensure that all the gains we in the West have achieved through decades of social struggles, our freedoms, our standard of living, will go down the drain sacrificed for the "greater cause". That will make the elites very happy. Just look what is happening in Europe right now with major strikes, and people being slowly deprived of post war privileges...

This war is very strange, the way we are willingly sucked into it in an age we had forgotten how to hold a gun in Europe. Maybe it's all about Putin's megalomania maybe not. 

 

I would like to know which post war "privileges" we have been deprived of. Nothing changed in Italy even with Meloni (where everyone inside and outside Italy was saying she would have been Mussolini 2.0). What I'm seeing here in Italy and I think in all latin/mediterranean countries, is the lack of will to work. The post WWII privileges were the money given to Europe by USA and the will to work and build everything again for the best. So a part from the lost privilege of getting money from the USA (or big country), now I see no privileges lost.

Edited March 16, 2023 by Endyamon

[sburke]

14 hours ago, OldSarge said:

It would be a total miscalculation on Putin's part. Downing a drone might get a shrug, but downing an AWACS would immediately become the top story of every Western media site.

As It isn't uncommon for AWACS to be manned by service people from throughout NATO, everyone would have a dog in the fight at that point. Putin isn't that desperate yet, or is he?

I was referring to the Russian plane getting shot down. I don't think they'd get close enough to the AWACS.

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Showing that quality of video is a bit of a flex. That resolution transmitted in realtime is no joke.  "this is the capability we're willing to show you publicly from these drones.  Think about what we aren't showing."

Nah, I don't think so.  I think everybody presumed this is the sort of quality these drones have.  I don't think it was a difficult call to put that video out there.

What wasn't shown is all the data that the drone is capable of collecting.  People have a pretty good idea what the AQ-9 can get, but it's possible that Russian and Chinese intelligence agencies don't know the details.  The general public sure doesn't.

Steve

[Peregrine]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The defense industry elites are happy, of course, but they are a small percentage of the total power structure.

It sort of makes sense that seeing their things go boom should produce more money but if defense spending is linked to GDP (sort of) in the manner Western leaders speak of it then defense spending is a part of the overall economy as well and fluctuates in line with that. I started to spend a little time to quantify this but bailed as it was going to take too long but even a quick glance it is hard to see any trends.

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nah, I don't think so.  I think everybody presumed this is the sort of quality these drones have.  I don't think it was a difficult call to put that video out there.

What wasn't shown is all the data that the drone is capable of collecting.  People have a pretty good idea what the AQ-9 can get, but it's possible that Russian and Chinese intelligence agencies don't know the details.  The general public sure doesn't.

Steve

Bil is gonna have to correct you again and it isn't dinner time.

[sross112]

Would it be possible that the Russian pilot dumped fuel on the drone and then came back in close thinking he could ignite it with his exhaust? All the aeroplane guys and engineers don't need to explain to me that this isn't possible due to the dissipation rates of JP fuel on a drone moving XXXkph with the sun at XX degrees, etc, etc. I know it isn't possible. You know it isn't possible. Did the Russian pilot think it was possible, miscalculated his approach as he was trying to get as close as he could and inevitably struck the drone? We have witnessed a string of sub par cognitive decisions from representatives of Russia for over a year now....

I can see a pilot going for contact to flip a V2 or nudge another aircraft, but that would be done just like PITing a vehicle. Catch up, off set, match speed, slow movement to contact, then push through. This was more of a lack of skill or miscalculation on the pilot's part as no matter how much larger you are in the air you shouldn't ram another thing in the air. 

Edited March 16, 2023 by sross112

[sburke]

this was too funny not to post

Russia's Wagner army is recruiting fighters on Pornhub in a desperate attempt to strengthen troops, report says (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

The Wagner Group, a Kremlin-linked paramilitary organization, is recruiting fighters on Pornhub in a desperate attempt to strengthen its troops, according to a report by the Ukrainian Pravda published on Wednesday.

An advertisement on the popular pornography website shows a woman licking a lollipop as a female voice says: "We are the most ****ing amazing private army in the world," Prava reported, citing several Russian media outlets.

"We are hiring fighters from all parts of Russia," the voice continues. "Don't ***** off, apply for a job with the Wagner Group." The advert also includes a phone number, which is reportedly linked with Wagner Group recruiters.

 

 

[Letter from Prague]

50 minutes ago, sburke said:

I was referring to the Russian plane getting shot down. I don't think they'd get close enough to the AWACS.

Russia allegedly has some really long range and really fast anti-air missiles that are supposed to be "AWACS killers". How many they have, how well they work, and whether they can be seen or intercepted is anyone's guess.

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, Endyamon said:

I would like to know which post war "privileges" we have been deprived of. Nothing changed in Italy even with Meloni (where everyone inside and outside Italy was saying she would have been Mussolini 2.0). What I'm seeing here in Italy and I think in all latin/mediterranean countries, is the lack of will to work. The post WWII privileges were the money given to Europe by USA and the will to work and build everything again for the best. So a part from the lost privilege of getting money from the USA (or big country), now I see no privileges lost.

I overcome your slightly racist remark of lazy southerners that is so 2010s (in fact South works more hours than the North nowadays , just have a look at the holidays and the few hours shops are opened each day. I was in Hague and I was shocked to see something like 12 to 3 and 3-5) here we are open 12 hours straight. 

But to answer your question, middle class has been hit hard In all Europe. Prices have gone up in everything , electricity has gone up, France and Belgium are paralyzed because of the pension limit increase among others, public health is compromised. In my country they are moving forward with privatization of water that will lead to skyrocketed prices and probably less quality. We recently had a deadly train accident due to privatization of trains and profits but with not enough investment in the state owned infrastructure. Europe was not built on US money alone but from hard work of war torn europeans and post war immigrants that also set the base of the most generous social system of the globe, that is now in danger. 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

8 hours ago, poesel said:

Just for the record: that is a fake (and a year old, btw)

Noted with thanks, we just ended up making fun of Americans anyway, as ya do.....

[G.I. Joe]

4 hours ago, panzermartin said:

soft kill of a 32million USD unit with almost zero cost.

Care to venture a guess at how much an hour of flight time for an Su-27 costs in jet fuel alone? Spoiler alert: I wouldn't call it "almost zero."

[Sequoia]

I 

22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Noted with thanks, we just ended up making fun of Americans anyway, as ya do.....

Well I knew the map wasn't legit as it didn't have Latveria and Sokovia.

[Endyamon]

28 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I overcome your slightly racist remark of lazy southerners that is so 2010s (in fact South works more hours than the North nowadays , just have a look at the holidays and the few hours shops are opened each day. I was in Hague and I was shocked to see something like 12 to 3 and 3-5) here we are open 12 hours straight. 

But to answer your question, middle class has been hit hard In all Europe. Prices have gone up in everything , electricity has gone up, France and Belgium are paralyzed because of the pension limit increase among others, public health is compromised. In my country they are moving forward with privatization of water that will lead to skyrocketed prices and probably less quality. We recently had a deadly train accident due to privatization of trains and profits but with not enough investment in the state owned infrastructure. Europe was not built on US money alone but from hard work of war torn europeans and post war immigrants that also set the base of the most generous social system of the globe, that is now in danger. 

 

I cannot be a racist with southern countries, because I live in one of them
I'm a middle class, but I was lucky that with my job, I travelled a bit. Wherever I went, people were simply working more and talking less about these privileges. Probably we simply (and luckily) have our bellies full and now because we can't eat the dessert, we think that now we are poor like 3rd world countries. There are many problems for sure, but I cannot see the true privileges thrown away.

Anyway, let's stop speaking about this, it's quite ot

[kevinkin]

Missed this from a few days ago:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

Despite a pessimistic view of the ongoing correlation of forces and ammo:

 Ukraine has been holding back soldiers for a spring offensive and training them as part of newly assembled assault brigades. Kyiv is also organizing battalions around the new fighting vehicles and tanks that Western nations are providing.

I think the UA might be counting the moral of the RA collapsing once probing operations begin. Otherwise, they will need to continue to attrite the RA while on the defensive. Meanwhile the Ukrainian people have to be growing tired with the toll the war is taking:

Ukraine has lost many of its junior officers who received U.S. training over the past nine years, eroding a corps of leaders who helped distinguish the Ukrainians from their Russian enemies at the start of the invasion, the Ukrainian official said. Now, the official said, those forces must be replaced. “A lot of them are killed,” the official said.

At the start of the invasion, Ukrainians rushed to volunteer for military duty, but now men across the country who did not sign up have begun to fear being handed draft slips on the street. Ukraine’s internal security service recently shut down Telegram accounts that were helping Ukrainians avoid locations where authorities were distributing summonses.

 If the spring offensive fails to reclaim all the lost ground, where the line stabilizes might just it of the next few years. The west needs to pick up the ball and run with it now. Not with troops on the ground, but with something to scare the bejesus out of the Russian conscript. What that is, I would love to know. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Bil is gonna have to correct you again and it isn't dinner time.

I'm like a terrier with a head injury... once I get a hold of something, it's hard to let it go   But also like a terrier, eventually I drop the damned thing and move onto something else.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

this was too funny not to post

Russia's Wagner army is recruiting fighters on Pornhub in a desperate attempt to strengthen troops, report says (yahoo.com)

 

They haven't been paying any attention to the fact that the brothels and strip clubs in Russia are already facing a customer shortage because of this war, so Wagner should conclude that market is already tapped out.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

37 minutes ago, Endyamon said:

I cannot be a racist with southern countries, because I live in one of them
I'm a middle class, but I was lucky that with my job, I travelled a bit. Wherever I went, people were simply working more and talking less about these privileges. Probably we simply (and luckily) have our bellies full and now because we can't eat the dessert, we think that now we are poor like 3rd world countries. There are many problems for sure, but I cannot see the true privileges thrown away.

Yes, privileged is in the eye of the beholder.  I think everybody reading this has access to a flush toilette (unless they chose not to ), most of the world does not.  As we've seen amply demonstrated by Russian troops taking such things out of Ukraine and back to Mother Russia.

37 minutes ago, Endyamon said:

Anyway, let's stop speaking about this, it's quite ot

Agreed!

Steve

[Chibot Mk IX]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Bil is gonna have to correct you again and it isn't dinner time.

AQ-9

 

https://aquacarts.com/products/aq-9

 

 

[DesertFox]

Well, what can I say...

German army’s shoddy kit, tank shortages and poor morale revealed (thetimes.co.uk)

[Battlefront.com]

39 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Missed this from a few days ago:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

Despite a pessimistic view of the ongoing correlation of forces and ammo:

 Ukraine has been holding back soldiers for a spring offensive and training them as part of newly assembled assault brigades. Kyiv is also organizing battalions around the new fighting vehicles and tanks that Western nations are providing.

I think the UA might be counting the moral of the RA collapsing once probing operations begin. Otherwise, they will need to continue to attrite the RA while on the defensive. Meanwhile the Ukrainian people have to be growing tired with the toll the war is taking:

Ukraine has lost many of its junior officers who received U.S. training over the past nine years, eroding a corps of leaders who helped distinguish the Ukrainians from their Russian enemies at the start of the invasion, the Ukrainian official said. Now, the official said, those forces must be replaced. “A lot of them are killed,” the official said.

At the start of the invasion, Ukrainians rushed to volunteer for military duty, but now men across the country who did not sign up have begun to fear being handed draft slips on the street. Ukraine’s internal security service recently shut down Telegram accounts that were helping Ukrainians avoid locations where authorities were distributing summonses.

 If the spring offensive fails to reclaim all the lost ground, where the line stabilizes might just it of the next few years. The west needs to pick up the ball and run with it now. Not with troops on the ground, but with something to scare the bejesus out of the Russian conscript. What that is, I would love to know. 

I think this was posted a few days ago.  Nothing really new in this that we haven't discussed in the last week or two.  More evidence that for the units that are directly engaged in Bakhmut, life sucks big time.  But that's just a small part of the big picture.  Even in this pessimistic report it was mentioned a couple of times that Ukraine is holding back a lot of force until the Spring/Summer.  It did this last year with a lot of success, so there's reason to hope it will work this year as well.

Steve

[Chibot Mk IX]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Noted with thanks, we just ended up making fun of Americans anyway, as ya do.....

BTW, that is not CCTV. the screenshot is coming from a stock market analysis TV show aired on the Shanghai Dongfang/Dragon Television. 

It’s fake, but the guy on the screen might have a better credibility on predicting future wars than predicting stock market.

[Battlefront.com]

Seems Putin is once again going after the oligarchs to get them to put money into the Russian economy instead of offshore accounts.  I'm sure Putin has done the same with all his billions

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3903638-putin-tells-russias-billionaires-to-step-up-in-face-of-sanctions-war/

I can recall this sort of thing a few times in the past, all associated with economic problems.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Well, what can I say...

German army’s shoddy kit, tank shortages and poor morale revealed (thetimes.co.uk)

Germany has sunk very deep, pains me to say it.

[MikeyD]

In Germany's defense, their operating assumption for 30 years was nobody in their right mind would start a major land war on the European continent in this day and age. Unfortunately, the most relevant part of that was 'in their right mind'. They didn't factor in Putin's creeping senility turning him reckless in his old age.

[Haiduk]

Wagner convicts still dangerous even after death. I bet you never heard about this, when rifleman after own death turned out to bilogical weapon %)

Serhiy Filimonov, "Honor"/"Da Vinci Volfs" commander after yesterday seizing of enemy positions:

- On yesterday corpses we have found wristlets - red and orange. AIDS and hepatitis [latter is very wide sickness among convicts]. All trenches in their guts and other... How we will sit there?

- Maybe gasoline and to burn all to fu..d di..s?

- Not work. There are more 30 of corpses for 100 m of trench. I don't know what to do with them...