How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Ukraine MoD trolling Russians... "Spring is Coming".  As is often with these MoD videos, the fun bits are left until the end:

Steve

[kraze]

A film about a russian nazi known for supporting russian wars and taking part in racist marches gets an Oscar.

What's wrong with this planet?

[chuckdyke]

They need the new Panther Tanks near Kursk and things are back to normal. 

[Kinophile]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1634799680126058502.html

Did someone already post this?

 

[chrisl]

15 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1634799680126058502.html

Did someone already post this?

 

LLF beat you to it about three pages ago, but linked to a tweet in the middle of the thread.  I recalled reading it, but had to flip back.  

 

I need to trigger the threadreader more often, it can be a lot of effort to read everything as a series of haikus.

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, sburke said:

somehow, I think that meme of kids saying, "are we there yet?" originated from your parents.  *****

Know then, O Last Knight of the Late, Expired and Ceased To Be Peng Thread (oof! speaking of shambling decaying corpses, someone crack a window eh?), you have not even *begun* to plumb the depths of my ADD.

...So it would be Wise to join me on a sharp detour up the obsidian spire of old school hex wargaming.  Old Friend.

See separate CMBS thread, heeyah

 

Edited March 13, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Maciej Zwolinski]

On 3/11/2023 at 10:40 PM, Fenris said:

I keep thinking someone should start mass producing those little one-eye pipe periscopes so these guys can see what's over the berm.

A Go-Pro camera with a selfie stick will probably be cheaper to source nowadays. On the other hand, remaking a Krummlauf adapter could be a good idea

[Maciej Zwolinski]

18 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Whatever happened to that “1:1” attrition ratio claim from last week?  Did anyone follow up with details?  And of course was that straight casualties or combat power attrition?  

It has been the hottest topic on the Polish military twitter. It probably follows from two sources, an increased number of UKR videos and tweets critical of the decisions concerning Bachmut and of the UKR command in general, as well as a research trip a few weeks ago by Franz-Stefan Gady, Konrad Muzyka, Rob Lee and yes, the bogeyman Kofman himself. This is extensively discussed in a podcast from last Friday in the  "War of the Rocks" series, in the paywalled section (I reluctantly started to pay for this stuff). They all seem in agreement that the level of casualties in Bachmut is high, Russians there are figthing well and Vuhledar is something completely else than is happening in Bachmut, whereas e.g. Kreminna is something else alltogether.  The Polish angle in this is Muzyka, who specifically came forward with the 1:1 ratio on Polish twitter.

The podcast also provides some details of the trip which to me are sufficient to disprove the angle, that this was just a publicity trip. E.g. the main source of their information is not visual inspection of the frontline, but meeting with their contacts and getting them to talk in a more extended and frank way, that is the case over the telephone or Signal. Gady and Muzyka did not even go to Bachmut itself, but elected to visit a replacement depot behind the lines. 

It is of course just my impression, but looking at what kind of arguments are put forward in favour and against, by whom and on what basis I find that the claim of 1:1 attrition ratio - specifically in the context of e.g. past two or three weeks, on the frontline between Krasnopopivka in the North to Krasne in the South - to be fully believable. 

To the contrary, the arguments referring to those huge 1:7 or 1:5 ratios seem to be just weaker, as they tend to be based on just "because Vuhledar, because zek rush and because Russian Orc stupid" general sentiment, or averaging out the casualty ratios in Bachmut area over a period of several months. Both are excessive generalisations, the first one obviously so, but the second is a fallacy as well. If the question is "whether to defend Bachmut now tenaciously or withdraw" the sunk costs and realised gains in the previous months do not matter. Just the prediction of the casualties going forward.

Now, the answer to the above question most recently presented by the Ukrainians is no longer attritional, but positional. UKR defends Bachmut because otherwise, the Russians will attack upwards and eliminate the salient from the north of Soledar to Kreminna. E.g. that is what Mashovets said the previous Monday on his Kanal5 programme. I am not sure about this one - if the RUS want to attack to the North, why do they need to take Bakhmut to the South? They took Soledar, which was closer to Bachmut than Krasnopopivka or Siversk.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

11 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

...then where are the large scale counterattacks to eject the Russians before they consolidate these gains? The attempts we've seen to date have been small beer.

Possibly waiting for the mud to dry up. If they make the mistake of attacking uphill in the mud in the teeth of artillery barrage we may see a 1:7 casualty ratios in the other direction.

[DesertFox]

Bring on the T-34 Obr.2023s...

 

 

 

Edited March 13, 2023 by DesertFox

[DesertFox]

LOL!

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Bring on the T-34 Obr.2023s...

 

 

 

Good that the west didn't give the Leopard 1 last year. As opposed to the previous year, they will outmatch RUS tanks to a significantly greater degree this year. haha

[kevinkin]

“[Russia] has converged on Bakhmut with a large part of its trained military personnel, the remnants of its professional army, as well as the private companies,” Podolyak explained.

“We, therefore, have two objectives: to reduce their capable personnel as much as possible, and to fix them in a few key wearisome battles, to disrupt their offensive and concentrate our resources elsewhere, for the spring counter-offensive.”

Well that is as plain as the nose on Putin's face:

https://nypost.com/2023/03/12/russia-loses-1090-soldiers-in-reported-deadliest-day-of-war/

[Tux]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

LOL!

 

For the love of God don’t anybody show this to Scholz!

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

The podcast also provides some details of the trip which to me are sufficient to disprove the angle, that this was just a publicity trip. E.g. the main source of their information is not visual inspection of the frontline, but meeting with their contacts and getting them to talk in a more extended and frank way, that is the case over the telephone or Signal. Gady and Muzyka did not even go to Bachmut itself, but elected to visit a replacement depot behind the lines. 

It is of course just my impression, but looking at what kind of arguments are put forward in favour and against, by whom and on what basis I find that the claim of 1:1 attrition ratio - specifically in the context of e.g. past two or three weeks, on the frontline between Krasnopopivka in the North to Krasne in the South - to be fully believable. 

It's still a sampling of incomplete evidence, but I agree we should take their assessment as a starting point.  Other evidence is lining up with this, such as the change in terrain, forces Russia is committing to the battle, and consistent daily advances.  The lack of out in the open rushes by lightly armed untrained men without supporting fire also seem to be over.

However, the nature of all of this means it is more difficult than ever for Ukraine to estimate Russian casualties.  Urban terrain makes assessment much harder and it's even more difficult when the enemy is taking ground.  If you're not walking the terrain with your own soldiers, it's likely there's casualties you're unaware of because a) bodies aren't being seen and b) the enemy has more opportunities to evacuate casualties unseen.

Unfortunately, this situation means that Ukraine might be OVER estimating Russian casualties, making the ratio less favorable than even 1:1.  The point is we just don't know, but if the forces on the ground feel that it's closer to 1:1 then that's probably the best estimate we'll get.  Likely ever, as Russia isn't known for being forthcoming with information even decades after the fact.

3 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

To the contrary, the arguments referring to those huge 1:7 or 1:5 ratios seem to be just weaker, as they tend to be based on just "because Vuhledar, because zek rush and because Russian Orc stupid" general sentiment, or averaging out the casualty ratios in Bachmut area over a period of several months.

Yes, those highly favorable estimates for Ukraine do seem to be no longer relevant to Bakhmut.  Which should be no surprise because the high body count was always associated with the Human wave attacks of both zerks and mobiks.  Those attacks are not happening any more, therefore the high casualty ratio isn't either.

We'll see what happens in Vuhledar in the coming days, but my guess is the weather is going to reduce activity there for a while.

3 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Now, the answer to the above question most recently presented by the Ukrainians is no longer attritional, but positional. UKR defends Bachmut because otherwise, the Russians will attack upwards and eliminate the salient from the north of Soledar to Kreminna. E.g. that is what Mashovets said the previous Monday on his Kanal5 programme. I am not sure about this one - if the RUS want to attack to the North, why do they need to take Bakhmut to the South? They took Soledar, which was closer to Bachmut than Krasnopopivka or Siversk.

Russia lacks the combat power to do anything significant if it takes Bakhmut.  If Russia were able to do something on this scale we'd have seen it this winter an we saw the exact opposite.  Three limited and unsuccessful areas of focus, none of which have secured much ground.  Even Russia's successes in Bakhmut are measured in meters and not kilometers.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Bunch of stuff:

1.  New video of thermal drone bombers.  I think all of it is new, but there might be some that came from the video posted here recently:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/11pewte/night_safari_on_rus_the_work_of_marines_of_the/

2.  CASEVAC is something we talk about often.  Here is a video with narrative in English:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/11pq928/our_medic_rescued_the_life_of_this_ukrainan/

3.  Seems Saakashvili was poisoned in prison and is near death and if he does die it could be a watershed moment for Georgia's relations with the West.  I doubt the people who just protested against the Foreign Agents law will sit by and have nothing to say about it:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/pro-western-former-georgian-president-close-to-death-after-alleged-prison-poisoning/ar-AA18x3Af

4.  Moldova says it foiled Russia's "unrest" coup plot:

https://www.rferl.org/a/moldova-police-foil-russian-plot-unrest/32314304.html

5.  Hero of Ukraine award given posthumously to Oleksandr Matsievsky, the Ukrainian soldier executed for saying "Slava Ukraini" to his Russian captors.  He was a member of the fire support company of the 163rd TD BN of the 19th BGD:

https://censor.net/en/news/3405250/zelensky_awarded_title_of_hero_of_ukraine_to_oleksandr_matsievsky

6.  Extended video of Russian vehicles dealing with the mud in the Svatove area:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/11prbxd/russian_army_vehicles_and_armor_around_svatovo/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

From yesterday:

Dimitri posted two translated videos (Magyar and Kyianyn) about the state of the battle in Bakhmut:

 

And another one from 93rd Mech:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/11pep8a/a_short_update_from_call_sign_youtube_of_the_93rd/

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

Looking beyond Bakhmut? Kramatorsk by, what, Christmas?

...of course, if you live in Chuck Pfarrer promo world, the Ukes are about to retake Krasna Hora.  Then on back to Soledar.

P.S. The more of these clips I see, the more I believe losses are now at rough parity in the city fight.  It's hide and seek with guns, and it appears neither team particularly outguns the other at this point, in terms of small arms, armour or (usable) arty.  Except for the AZOM complex, it looks like the redoubts that commanded broad fields of fire at the outskirts are now pierced.  Time to bring in the Boston Dynamics slaughterbot dogs?

Edited March 13, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[danfrodo]

Interesting day.  LLFlank shows RU moving up highway towards Slovyansk, slowly....

So before the ground dries one would expect RU to have moved forces currently in Donbas sector out to the northern and western fronts to cover assumed UKR offensive.  But that's interesting in that it could also leave the newly conquered territory, Krasna Hora etc, very very vulnerable.  It also means this 'big RU offensive' would be over.  iF they don't shift those forces, it's all that much better for UKR.  When I posted earlier that RU was behaving like a zombie, just biting what's in front of it, I think that may be more accurate than I thought.  RU is burning up resources that probably will be sorely missed in a month or two.

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

Ah, the "tomato juice guy" from Soledar again. Same message. Everything is just fine, quiet, no problems..

[akd]

Mounted assault on a Russian trench line:

 

[chrisl]

31 minutes ago, akd said:

Mounted assault on a Russian trench line:

 

If this is representative, does it imply that the Russians aren’t even handing out rpgs in any kind of quantity, let alone atgms?  With dispersed troops in a long trench that was a pretty exposed vehicle side.

[Pete Wenman]

39 minutes ago, akd said:

Mounted assault on a Russian trench line:

Looks like the trench line was originally a Ukrainian defence line, given its location and the berm on the right (east ?) edge. Its an awful lot of trench for very few defenders, and suggests RU are over stretched trying to hold it.  As Chrisl states no AT weapons evident either. This is not a sound defensive position.

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Mounted assault on a Russian trench line:

Wow, thinks every Russian kit should have band aids and a white flag. 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Mounted assault on a Russian trench line:

 

Interesting clip in a lot of ways. What struck me was that despite relatively accurate fire from the IFV, the troops in the trench were surpassed but not obviously hit. Am I correct in thinking this is one of many cases we have seen where an auto-cannon with programmable airburst would be vastly more effective?