How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, Fenris said:

As the comment suggests, a slight widening of the cracks in RU ranks

 

To the contrary, it was recon by death, conducted by them. So the Russian excuse for forward observers could at least pin down the Ukrainian positions to grid square or two. I do hope they feel honored by being allowed to sacrifice their lives for the Czar in this manner. I suspect they would have lived a lot longer calling the Ukrainian surrender hot line though. I suspect the penalty for insufficient enthusiasm involves mine clearance by beating the ground with hammers.

[kevinkin]

Nevertheless, in the first year of war, Putin’s partial escalation strategy has generally served him well. It has allowed him to maintain political stability through a combination of intimidation and indifference. Internationally and domestically, it has helped him prepare Russia for a very long war without making the kinds of sacrifices that might ultimately cause the population to rebel. And above all, it has given him flexibility. The more radical options—including economic nationalization and full mobilization—are still open, and the country’s bureaucracy is already prepared to set them in motion.  

The question is, how long can this not-quite-total war be sustained? The longer the war goes on, the more Putin will have to take some of the more drastic steps he has threatened. And at some point, he will run out of room to play with.

Served him well? Anyway, he might have something left in the tank, but the tank is leaking all sorts of flammables and toxins right in his own backyard.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russias-halfway-hell-strategy

We've got to hold on to what we've got
It doesn't make a difference if we make it or not
We've got each other and that's a lot for love
We'll give it a shot
Woah, we're half way there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Livin' on a prayer

[Fenris]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

To the contrary, it was recon by death, conducted by them. So the Russian excuse for forward observers could at least pin down the Ukrainian positions to grid square or two. I do hope they feel honored by being allowed to sacrifice their lives for the Czar in this manner. I suspect they would have lived a lot longer calling the Ukrainian surrender hot line though. I suspect the penalty for insufficient enthusiasm involves mine clearance by beating the ground with hammers.

Some more detail in this thread (I can't verify the accuracy of the details in the thread)

 

[danfrodo]

53 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Nevertheless, in the first year of war, Putin’s partial escalation strategy has generally served him well. It has allowed him to maintain political stability through a combination of intimidation and indifference. Internationally and domestically, it has helped him prepare Russia for a very long war without making the kinds of sacrifices that might ultimately cause the population to rebel. And above all, it has given him flexibility. The more radical options—including economic nationalization and full mobilization—are still open, and the country’s bureaucracy is already prepared to set them in motion.  

The question is, how long can this not-quite-total war be sustained? The longer the war goes on, the more Putin will have to take some of the more drastic steps he has threatened. And at some point, he will run out of room to play with.

Served him well? Anyway, he might have something left in the tank, but the tank is leaking all sorts of flammables and toxins right in his own backyard.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russias-halfway-hell-strategy

We've got to hold on to what we've got
It doesn't make a difference if we make it or not
We've got each other and that's a lot for love
We'll give it a shot
Woah, we're half way there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Livin' on a prayer

Indeed, Russia's Stable Genius has everything and everyone exactly where he planned it, wah ha ha ha ha ha. 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

The source was actually Muzyka, not Kofman (plus some other Polish researchers) but that is not material. The importance of this is data point is the losses going forward. If this 1:1 or similar represents the new reality after the fighting switched to urban combat in Bachmut proper with UKR and RUS shooting at each other from neighbouring buildings and basically having no cover advantage either way, then the question arises whether it is a mistake to stay in Bakhmut (and additionally, risk being cut off) vs the alternative of withdrawing to the new postition and making RUS to come over open terrain to the new trench lines. The decision to stay as announced by Zelenski has been controversial. 

Again, the "reality" is not easily seen by going and visiting the frontline for a couple of hours or even a couple of days.  Sorry, it just isn't.  At best you get a snapshot in time from a specific location.  That's it.  That's all you get.  Whether it is indicative of the bigger picture, a prediction of things to come, a temporary situation, etc. is not possible to determine from such a visit any more than a TD unit getting overrun and murdered in Bucha tells us anything about the war's progress.

It could be that today the losses were 1:1, tomorrow they could be favorable again or they could be even worse.  We don't have any way of predicting that with any degree of certainty, especially since it appears that Ukraine is reinforcing the fight and Wagner is now out of cannon fodder.  We do know that Ukraine's senior command has done a stellar job managing this war so far and (according to the reports) recommended staying to defend Bakhmut.

Sorry... I put more faith in the professional officers who have been fighting this war more than a couple of guys stopping in for a peek.  Could be that they turn out to be correct, but that's not where I'm placing my money.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

Just working backwards from the  "who benefits?" test it sort of screams false flag to me until proven otherwise. Haiduk posted something today about the SBU still actively cleaning up the dregs of FSB agents in various parts of the Ukrainian government. That might be quite relevant. Indeed the guy Haiduk posted about today was a fairly senior person in the Ukrainian Navy or Marines, and now I am REALLY curious about what he has been up to?

Oh, it's even worse than that.  Ukraine is riddled with Russian agents, both willing and useful idiots.  Doesn't have to be higher ups in the Ukrainian government, it could just be some regular civilian acting on behalf of the Russian government.  There's no shortage of traitors, as Haiduk just reminded us of.

If the supposed smoking gun is a blatantly clear paper trail to a Ukrainian company, my first guess is it's Russia and not Ukraine.

Steve

[sburke]

46 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If the supposed smoking gun is a blatantly clear paper trail to a Ukrainian company, my first guess is it's Russia and not Ukraine.

Steve

They haven't even suggested that is a smoking gun.  There is nothing more about that company other than it is owned by Ukrainians.  Considering nothing more is said about them it seems the perpetrators used them as a service to rent the yacht.  They then returned it leaving clear evidence of explosives.  Honestly it sounds like a really crappily run false flag.  Hell google Germany yacht rentals.  You'll find a ton of options.  Renting in Poland through a UKR owned company?  yeah sure.  Freakin amateur hour.

Granted there could be more evidence that hasn't been leaked but so far....  I'm still leaning to another crappy FSB job.  I mean jeez how many garbage ops do they have to run before we stop expecting them to be decent smart operators.  Remember the Skirpal poisonings where they couldn't even dispose of the poison correctly?

and how could we forget "the Sims"

Russia's Spy Agency Mocked After 'Sims 3' Games Spotted in Video (businessinsider.com)

Edited March 8, 2023 by sburke

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

Honestly it sounds like a really crappily run false flag. 

Crappy false flag attacks, botched foreign assassinations, and unsuccessful coups?  Look no further than the FSB!  The alternative is some other agency that is so damned good that it can fake being as bad as the FSB.

I'll go back to the most obvious reason for Russia to conduct this operation... blow up the pipes, blame it on Ukraine, then step back and watch the West engage in recriminations and distrust.  More value out of that then whatever they would have got from the dormant pipes.

The other theory, advanced soon after the explosion, is that this was some part of power play within Russia.  Someone decided to use the war as cover to settle some score or gain some leverage over another player in Russian politics.  I doubt this unless the someone calling the shots was Putin.

Steve

[FancyCat]

It amazes me that most news reports omit that Russia can still supply Europe and still sends gas thru two pipelines, going via Poland and Ukraine itself!

 

[Battlefront.com]

Video showing a drone harassing and eventually knocking out a T-72:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/11ldmg1/the_72nd_brigade_use_40mm_nato_grenades_modified/

Interesting to note that it took a FIVE hits to the engine deck to finally cause a mobility kill.  I'd guess the last hit severed a coolant hose which, spewing coolant onto the hot engine block, caused the engine to overhead and the crew to abandon.  Another couple of failed drops until they got a hand grenade right into the driver's compartment.

Persistence pays off

Steve

[Peregrine]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another couple of failed drops until they got a hand grenade right into the driver's compartment.

Don't forget to shut the hatch when you leave.

[chuckdyke]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Persistence pays off

The moral of the story most Russians were born in a tent. Make sense if their ancestors were nomads from the steppes. 

[dan/california]

I am guessing that about all that crew will good for for the rest of the war is turning bad vodka into something even worse. 

[Battlefront.com]

And meanwhile, Georgia is having some crowd control problems.  OK, two Georgias are, but the one relevant to this thread is the one next to Russia:

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/03/08/mass-protests-break-out-in-georgia-after-parliament-approves-first-version-of-foreign-agents-bill

The protests are about the partial passage of a Russian style "foreign agents" law which, as with Russia, is intended to control foreign NGOs, especially those involved in promoting good governance, Human Rights, and other such things.

Once an organization is branded a "foreign agent" they can be easily subjected to harassment, unusual scrutiny, and eventually banishment.

Steve

[kevinkin]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2023/03/06/russia-may-be-wasting-tons-of-munitions-blowing-up-inflatable-decoys-in-ukraine/?sh=5982957e64f7

The one thing the RA solders are good at does not work well in war time. 

[Bulletpoint]

9 hours ago, Butschi said:

It's like one of those Agatha Christie stories. A room full of people where everyone has a motive.

 

Maybe the butler was the murderer? I know a small country with easy access to the pipelines that will do anything if Uncle Sam calls. No questions asked.

[Rokko]

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I think it is actually more simple than this.  If I could boil down the problem for the defender it is to become unsolvable.  Every defence is a military puzzle whose biggest problem is human learning.  If attacked, poked and probed enough, even the most vigorous defence can be solved given enough time.  The game is to make the cost of solving it beyond the bank account of the attacker. 

Even back in WWI the extensive trench systems, communications, rapid firing artillery and railways all conspired to make trench warfare unsolvable.  Sides adapted, inventing airpower, tanks, tunneling and storm troops, all as way to solve for this defensive warfare.  In the end one side simply was exhausted but someone would have solved for that type of defence eventually - we know this because the Germans did in 1940.

[...]

Within small wars we see this sort of thing "amongst the people", similarities between people and oceans are interesting.  But unlike oceans, people appear to be able to suddenly freeze from the inside out as opposed to external factors. But this is another topic entirely.

As to Bakhmut, well currently the UA defence is still not solved.  It is solvable, however, the question is how long and at what cost. The RA bizarre inability to learn is very much helping the UA right now, but no party last forever.

This is "puzzle solving" on a grand strategic, war covering, level, though. I am more wondering about what happens during the course of one, potentially very large attritional defensive battle over terrain that has no inherent strategic value spanning multiple months. To give an example, what happened between 1 July 1916, when the British Army suffered more casualties than on any other day in its history, and November 1916, when after the dust had settled, there was a roughly 1.4:1 casualty ratio (using Wikipedia numbers)?

Perhaps the puzzle analogy is useful on that layer as well, but the solving involves finding ways to move casualty ratios more in favor of the attacker until the defender is exhausted. There were some minor tactical innovations during the Somme, as well, such as placing troops well outside of their usual trenches and inside deep shell holes out in the open, which took the British some time to figure out (=solve this part of the defensive puzzle). But overall I would assume it always comes down to some combination of the factors I had outlined earlier and potentially others as well, i.e., destruction of fortifications, risky counter-attacks, growing attacker terrain and tactical familiarity/experience, etc.

Quote

So in order to become unsolvable, a defence must become non-linear, adaptive and dynamic.  Big problem in land warfare is that terrain does not work that way.  Problem in air and maritime is that the physics of fluids work that way too well.  I strongly suspect that unmanned systems, particularly ground systems could change this.  Defence/Offence on land may start to look more like that in the sea - at best one can gain temporary control.  Land warfare may be evolving towards denial of ground, the trick will be the right peice of ground at the right time.

This seems a bit vague, but probably points in the right direction. Although we may understand different things under non-linear, adaptive and dynamic. I would take it to e.g. include abandoning positions or parts of your defensive network once it can no longer be expected to allow you to inflict casualties to your enemy at a favorable ratio and instead move backwards into fresh fortifications and therefore "fresh puzzle territory" for the attacker, where he has to learn all the painful lessons again.

5 hours ago, Fenris said:

Some more detail in this thread (I can't verify the accuracy of the details in the thread)

 

This being Russia, I assume the "calming" involved the use of strong sedatives?

[Der Zeitgeist]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

And meanwhile, Georgia is having some crowd control problems.  OK, two Georgias are, but the one relevant to this thread is the one next to Russia:

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/03/08/mass-protests-break-out-in-georgia-after-parliament-approves-first-version-of-foreign-agents-bill

The protests are about the partial passage of a Russian style "foreign agents" law which, as with Russia, is intended to control foreign NGOs, especially those involved in promoting good governance, Human Rights, and other such things.

Once an organization is branded a "foreign agent" they can be easily subjected to harassment, unusual scrutiny, and eventually banishment.

Steve

Events in Georgia are showing once again that the biggest supporters of the EU are the ones not in it.

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

11 hours ago, Butschi said:

I did say Germany has a motive. On the other hand why shouldn't Ukraine have help from, say, Estonia or Poland? (Just to add some more candidates )

Greenpeace!

[poesel]

FWIW the news about the NS explosions didn't make a big splash here in Germany. It was reported and clearly stated that we still don't know who was behind it. Even the rainbow press refrained from finger pointing. That is all.

[Anon052]

35 minutes ago, poesel said:

FWIW the news about the NS explosions didn't make a big splash here in Germany. It was reported and clearly stated that we still don't know who was behind it. Even the rainbow press refrained from finger pointing. That is all.

It is still early and in social media it does look different lots of talking about "bad Ukraine".  I don't know if I read the same articles, but there was a lot of subtile finger pointing to a pro-ukrainian-Group and connections to Kiev and lot of talking about no hints of false flag.

This seems to be typical of saboteurs to leave behind a business card. Yeah right.

 

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Anon052

[akd]

1 hour ago, Anon052 said:

This seems to be typical of saboteurs to leave behind a business card

This is a joke.

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

FWIW the news about the NS explosions didn't make a big splash here in Germany. It was reported and clearly stated that we still don't know who was behind it. Even the rainbow press refrained from finger pointing. That is all.

Well, for "not a big splash" there is quite a lot of media coverage. On the plus side: What I saw/read/heard was very balanced and cautious. On the minus side: Reactions were relatively balanced and cautious. Usually in such a circumstance you get a very quick reaction like: "Obviously a Russian operation" or something along the line of a firm denial. Pistorius, for instance said that he waits for the final results of the investigation and added that it could also have been a Russian false flag operation. And I've heard several questions from journalists, asking what this means for German military aid for Ukraine.

But I agree, for now it looks more like a something that is foing to be forgotten in a few days as long as no additional information becomes available.

Well, I guess we should just wait and see what happens. I agree there is not that much more to discuss about for the moment.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Butschi

[Butschi]

3 hours ago, Anon052 said:

This seems to be typical of saboteurs to leave behind a business card. Yeah right.

You mean like the 9/11 terrorists who conveniently managed to have a passport surface among the rubble of the twin towers? Usually that's a code for "we have intel but can't or don't want to share the source".

Edited March 8, 2023 by Butschi

[Sojourner]

A wise man, more people should follow his example…

“Asked whether the reports could undermine Western support for Ukraine, Pistorius said he preferred to respond once he had reliable information. “Anything else is hypothetical,” he added.”

https://apnews.com/article/germany-ukraine-russia-gas-pipeline-attack-nordstream-d267ad7dcff560c9ecaebf4f213e5229?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=TopNews&utm_campaign=position_06