How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Then the Anglosphere (US-Canada-Britain) sponsors a new 'Amber Alliance*' taking in Norway + Sweden + Finland + Baltics + Poland + Ukraine... keeping a seat warm for a free Belarus.

You are assuming that the USA right wing Congress isn’t the chief nod-nod, wink-wink player? Bad assumption.  Even if something were worked out before 2024, to ratify any “Amber” treaty requires Senate ratifification. With 60 votes minimum. Don’t bet on getting those votes any time soon. You think a *new* military commitment to another war in Europe against Russia would be easy and quick to get through? The price demanded for a deal would be so high that senators on the other side would start refusing to go along. Welcome to business as usual now, in the deadlocked Congress. Heck, right now Congress can’t even agree to pay the USA debts, with default looming.  

Things would be a lot simpler though if Russia were losing big time on the battlefield, in conspicuous retreat on several fronts. THEN you might get a face-saving deal. Not just because China says, ‘Do it.” But because Ukraine with its free world allies *makes* it. China can add its own little push after that. So get the whole package together. All the training, all the coordination, stop the piecemeal dribbling out of endless quibbling about each platform, inviting more naysayers more time and platforms to whine and moan. Map out the plan with Ukraine and the Allies, and make it do. However long this takes, it would be a day less  if started yesterday. 

[JonS]

4 hours ago, danfrodo said:

it was the  Judean People's National Front for Liberation

Splitters.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

You are assuming that the USA right wing Congress isn’t the chief nod-nod, wink-wink player?

I am assuming nothing about US politics, including one faction or the other being All the Bad Things Under The Bed. That tangent will need to proceed without me, thanks.

****

But hey, look over there, Berlusconi!

https://www.politico.eu/article/european-conservatives-berlusconi-ukraine-war-conflict-zelenskyy-putin-epp/

 

Edited February 25, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[chuckdyke]

Statement by H.E. Mr. Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, at the UN Security Council meeting | Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (mfa.gov.ua)

[Butschi]

11 hours ago, poesel said:

The G7 have a GDP of about 34 trillion US$ while BRICS has about 25 trillion US$ which puts it just ahead of the USA alone.

I have worked in all the BRICS countries and in 4 of the G7. Of course, it depends a bit on where you are, but there is literally a world between these two groups. A world of wealth.

To be fair, the numbers quoted are GDP PPP, not raw GDP. And total, not per capita. The numbers seem correct but what to make of them is a different matter, as they are hard to compare. So reading BRICS > G7 out of them doesn't make all that much sense, I think.

[A Canadian Cat]

7 hours ago, Seminole said:

There's a confusion about China. The popular conception is that companies come to China because of low labor cost. I'm not sure what part of China they go to, but the truth is China stopped being the low-labor-cost country many years ago

Tim can say whatever BS he wants. Have you read anything about the working conditions at the Apple factory in China? That level of exploitation is all about cheap labour.

[A Canadian Cat]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

the mental block I have is it is plural

Fun linguistics trivia: 'you' used to be plural only. The singular was 'ye'. When people started abandoning ye and just using you for both plural and singular various old fogies of the time freaked out over the destruction of the grammar of the English language. You are in good company and this story about language usage if an often repeated tale.

Eventually it will fade away. Perhaps with the Boomers and the GenXers.

[chuckdyke]

5 minutes ago, IanL said:

you' used to be plural only

You is U in Dutch but it is formal. Ye is Je or Jij but for people you know or younger. Two languages went their separate ways. It takes some time to change say one thousand years. 

Edited February 25, 2023 by chuckdyke

[chuckdyke]

Another escalation. Ukraine's secret weapon.

 

[Fenris]

From a couple of weeks ago "Trench Warfare".  Shows what it's like at the front.  Turn on subtitles for English.

 

[Holien]

OK for those that think sanctions are not working this interview is pretty good and balanced on what we know about the state of the Russian economy...

 

Some of the Key Points (many we know already)...

1.  We don't know the true metrics as all we are told is what the Russians tell us and there is no independent verification. So IMF and World Bank are just repeat what they are told by the Russians and the key leadership in the Russian Rostadt has been replaced three times by the Putin Goons until they got the right person in place.
2. Q2 of 2022 Russia stopped reporting the information required to the IMF and World Bank.
3. Russia is lying about the figures - Shock horror!!!
4. Any quotes about value of Roubles is BS as it is not being traded so if you hear someone say the Rouble is fine it is BS as it is not being traded!!
5. The Russian state is propping things up with Foreign Reserves
6. He even quotes photos of Refrigerators being stripped of chips to feed the military production lines.
7. Oil sales Russia is losing money on any oil it sells as it costs more to transport and extract than what they can get for it...
8. Some international companies are still trading in Russia.
9. Russia Economy is now smaller than Chile
10. Russian Gas is now no longer needed by Europe -
     

11. LNG has replaced any losses of Russian Gas - On a personal note my Gas Tracker rate is now 1/2 or what it was costing, still high but

    has come down...
     
12. To build new pipelines from Russia for Gas it will take 6 years to build to the Asian markets - Russian gas is just being burnt off at the moment... (If they could even get help building them)

 

 

Edited February 25, 2023 by Holien

[Pete Wenman]

 

Within an article confirming Spartan APC's being handed over to the 127th Brigade - a territorial unit

Quote

Today, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine made a decision on the formation of mechanized units in the Territorial Defense Forces.

" This means that we have one tank platoon per battalion and one mechanized company per battalion. For each battalion ," said the commander of the Territorial Defense Forces of Ukraine Ihor Tansyura.

 

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/harkivsku-tro-ozbroyily-bronemashynamy-spartan/

P

[MSBoxer]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

Another escalation. Ukraine's secret weapon.

 

It has been a while since we have seen that many Deere tractors heading towards customers.  I live just a few miles from their HQ and my wife along with several other family/friends are employed by Deere.  

For the last few years their staging yards have been packed with "almost" complete equipment, ready to ship except for the key micro-chips needed to run the darn things.  Imagine if something as benign as tractors are delayed by a chip shortage, what the impact is on high tech military equipment with more specialized chips.  Then add sanctions to the mix and you start to get an idea of some of the problems RU is facing.

Edited February 25, 2023 by MSBoxer

[LongLeftFlank]

Holy old codger! @Kinophile (and other believers),  too mean to die UkraineVolunteer is back on the grid, after being missing for 19 days. His squad is operating in the teeth of the Russian winter push, in the new Forest of Assassins between Kreminna and the Seversky Donetz.

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/02/24/they-are-scared-of-this-forest-as-they-should-be/

We underwent about six Russian attacks. Mostly people, but heavy artillery and even two airstrikes. 'Belly formation', a lagging push between two flanks. In this case to provide for supply and manpower reserves.

The main difference is accurate artillery. We have it, they do not. The Yooks split their attack and drove them back, leaving a mess behind.... my count was 80 or so in the area we walked back through. 

Our task was basic forward combat patrol.... First time our drones got jammed completely out.

The Yook military might be, pound-for-pound, the most lethal fighting force on the planet at this point.

[A PW] told us that experienced soldiers tend to stay clear of tanks, since they are valuable targets and the Yooks would take a lot of risk to destroy them. He also said it had a detrimental impact on combined arms. 

Edited February 25, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Kinophile]

Beat me to the punch! 

Yah his descriptions of shell shock and combat stress/fatigue do ring true (ie consistent with other accounts) but Id like to know if other RL Mil here can verify? 

I've been tracking the Kremina movements so I've an idea where he might be operating. 

Sure does sound like they're starting to shift along the probability curve of getting killed. 

To quote thelma & Louise:

Max: You know, the one thing I can't figure out is whether these girls are real smart or just real, real lucky?

Hal : Don't matter. Brains'll only get you so far - and luck always runs out.

 

 

[TheVulture]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

We in the West point fingers at our economic and governmental systems which allow so much wealth to flow to so few people.  BRICS?  Pretty much all of the wealth goes to a few people.  That's why GDP alone is a really stupid way to compare economic strength.  Now, if the BRICS countries invested as much of their GDP into their economies and governance, instead of doing the minimum so a few people get the rest, then maybe there'd be some serious competition.

It also matters, for some things, what the GDP per capita is. BRICS may have a total GDP on the same magnitude as the G7, but they also have something like 6 times the population - so the average wealth per person is considerably lower.

For something comparisons, total GDP is a better measure, while for others GDP per person is more informative. Of course the reality is that trying to boil down the economic interactions and potential of the G7 and BRICS countries to a single number, or group of numbers, is always going to be a massive oversimplification. But it has its uses as a comparative starting point.

[kevinkin]

12 hours ago, The_Capt said:

“who is actually calling the shots on the Red team now?”

I guess by default it's the CCP. But what a motley crew they have. 

[kevinkin]

Sorry if this was discussed way back when:

https://news.yahoo.com/russias-medvedev-floats-idea-pushing-091433077.html

[womble]

1 hour ago, MSBoxer said:

For the last few years their staging yards have been packed with "almost" complete equipment, ready to ship except for the key micro-chips needed to run the darn things.  Imagine if something as benign as tractors are delayed by a chip shortage, what the impact is on high tech military equipment with more specialized chips.  Then add sanctions to the mix and you start to get an idea of some of the problems RU is facing.

I work in a factory producing earth-moving equipment. Our production last year was sporadically disrupted by the lack of Engine Control Units until about September. Supplies seem to have stabilised since then. There were other disruptions, too, but those have largely settled out, as well. 

Edit: should clarify that I'm in the UK, and not denying in any way that the sanctions on the RF are going to make their lives difficult, merely offering a view on the situation on "our side" starting to stabilise a bit.

Edited February 25, 2023 by womble

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, MSBoxer said:

tractors

They are Prime Movers in disguise

[quakerparrot67]

8 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Alison..... Is that a dude's name now? I am so confused. 

Of course, back in the day it used to be a radial engine.

'digby' tatham-warter, of arnhem umbrella fame, was  full named 'alison digby tatham-warter', so i guess it's been for a while.

also, the alison aircraft engine was a v-12, as seen on the p-40 and the early p-51 mustangs.

 

cheers,

rob

Edited February 25, 2023 by quakerparrot67

[kevinkin]

36 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

For something comparisons, total GDP is a better measure, while for others GDP per person is more informative.

Productivity is the important measure and GDP is part of that. Per capita would assume everyone in an economic system is equally productive. They are not. Generally, the more productive a person or company is, the higher their income over a given time within a relevant set of markets. Wealth is different from income: If a doctor is very productive and makes 1 million USD in a given year and spends it all in the given year (+/- any investments made with that income) their net wealth goes nowhere. Starting from zero, wealth is accumulated when profits are invested and not spent to pay "expenses". So if the the doctor buys an Accord and not a BMW, or a 3 bedroom condo not a 5 bedroom home with swimming pool etc.. early in their career and continues to invest the profits from their income, they will accumulate wealth that can be passed on. Income derived from labor can't be passed on. Assets that produce income can, or be sold. It's up to the beneficiary, A high income person is not necessarily wealthy and a wealthy person may not have a high income. The pedestrian media get this all in a mess when "tax the rich" comes up. 

https://fellow.app/blog/productivity/types-of-productivity-measures-and-how-to-use-them/

[billbindc]

9 hours ago, alison said:

I have wavered back and forth on how effective Chinese propaganda has been under Xi. On one hand, the "wolf warrior" style has hardened the resolve of hawks in the west and perhaps alienated some fence-sitters who might otherwise have been sympathetic. On the other hand, the increased assertiveness has absolutely been beneficial in bolstering nationalist sentiment at home and that has probably paid for itself in building a populist base that can provide some stability for the government in challenging times (Hong Kong protests, COVID etc).

What I am unsure about is how well it's landed in countries outside of the traditional western sphere of influence. Certainly in some parts of the world where there is a "frenemy" relationship with the US, there is an appeal in seeing another great power stand up to them - at least rhetorically - but I am not sure whether that has translated into more favorable opinions of China, or whether people are just seeing it as a bit of schadenfreude.

Something I have often encountered when talking to people from developing countries is that they are quite happy for their government to play both sides to line up whatever benefits they can get. The thinking is to stay on the good side of both the US and China - or at least not get on anyone's bad side - so the main focus can remain on internal development (or personal enrichment, if you want to look at it cynically). This means nod and smile when China complains about America's "Cold War mentality", nod and smile when the US pushes their "rules-based order", while not really buying into any of it. And when China's ally invades a neighboring country, just nod and smile when they tell you it was to resist NATO aggression. The question is: is it a failure of the west to not get people in other countries to acknowledge this war as unjust? Does people being apathetic or disinterested mean we lost the propaganda battle, or does it just mean we didn't win it?

On how this might affect the situation on the ground in Ukraine in a concrete way, I think if more countries around the world really, full-throatedly condemned the war, it's possible that sanctions against Russia could have been more effective. Shouldn't the US have India on-side, for example, given so-called Indo-Pacific security concerns? Why did Vietnam - no friend of China - abstain in the most recent UN vote? These relationships play on my mind, because ultimately I think they may also affect the shape of future conflict in Taiwan, where I currently live.

I think a lot of that tracks...especially the idea that ww diplomacy has domestic political aims. I would argue that those must be paramount as the external effects of ww diplomacy have been to drive the Philippines, Japan, Vietnam, Australia, etc into much close military cooperation with the US than would have occurred otherwise. In ways reminiscent of Kaiserine Germany, the PRC behavior has helped bring about the precise geopolitical isolation it feared. 

I'm not much convinced that propaganda is as effective as we imagine except when it reinforces a pre-existing condition. WW diplomacy was effective in a negative sense bc it confirmed fears that China's neighbors already harbored. When the US argues for the rules based order, when it works it does so because the US is showing that it will actively commit to defending it (as in Ukraine). Russian propaganda pre war worked because it took advantage of Western political fissures. And then, suddenly it did not when Russia's invasion activated much more significant fears of a general war in Europe.

I don't think much of this matters too much in regards to Ukraine. Whatever the uninvolved BRICS may say/do, in the end the EU and US can continue their support without them. In addition, they understand the economic realities of India, Turkey, etc. They don't actually *need* them to sanction Russia and they don't need their support in the UN lockstep on every issue. In other words, I don't believe it's a sign of weakness...it's a sign of excess of strength.

[kevinkin]

Not sure if the writer was tossed out of the Obama admin or what, but read with a grain of salt and don't kill the messenger:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/ukraines-endgame/

Not once in the years between 1991 and now has Ukraine been able to produce a governing elite capable of recognizing that while its geographic position is its Achilles heel, it is also its greatest strength, that they could leverage their geographic position in a way that would advance the common good. But having refused to do so, the population at large, looted to its last hryvnia, sunk deeper and deeper into poverty: By 2015, Iraq, Mongolia, and Albania had higher rates of personal income than Ukraine.

Yet in the view of President Biden, his advisors, and the near-entirety of the media-political establishment in Washington, this is a war, as the president put it in January, that “is about freedom. Freedom for Ukraine, freedom everywhere. It’s about the kind of world we want to live in and the world we want to leave our children.”

Freedom? Only if the definition of freedom is permanent dependency.

For any chance of survival, Ukraine’s governing elites clearly believe they must hitch their futures to the E.U. and NATO. Yet should they join NATO, they will become yet another military dependency of the United States. Should they become members of the E.U., they will become yet another vassal of Berlin, and will have to place its future at the mercy of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt and an unaccountable bureaucracy in Brussels.

[DesertFox]

Whenever there will be a new CM:BS module, don´t miss this one: