How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

19 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Communism in practice was never like the theory. There was still an elite, the workers still got ****.

I don't play Wordle, but I suppose the 3rd letter could be either "I" or "O".

P.S. Our Thread.....

[OK, looks like things got back on track on p2073.]

Edited February 16, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Tux]

41 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Thanks for the kind words about beggars. it's so nice to feel like a beggar in a destroyed country under rocket attacks, and you reminded me of this in such a timely manner.

While I (and I think most here) sympathise with your position here I think there may be a little bit getting ‘lost in translation’:  “Beggars can’t be choosers” is a common phrase in English which is not meant to imply any additional offence to the “beggar” in question, to the extent that the word itself can be seen as derogatory.  It’s just a pithy way of saying that people with no other choice shouldn’t be too critical of the form of assistance they get.  “Don’t bite the hand that feeds you” is another one. 

Sorry if you knew that; I don’t mean to patronise.

Ultimately though Butschi does have a point: there is no legal obligation on any European country to give Ukraine anything (as brainless and immoral as it would be for them not to).  The people on this board will likely be sympathetic to your complaints about the rate of assistance offered but there are those who would take offence and use it to justify ceasing assistance altogether. 

It’s a bit like putting Wehrmacht insignia on your tank:  ‘dark humour’ to you and your mates, forgivable foolishness to friends who understand your plight, gold dust to those who want ammunition to feed a propaganda war.

[chuckdyke]

A good explanation about the Wagner Group. Just turn on the English subtitles. The translation as far as I can tell is ok.

 

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Thanks for the kind words about beggars. it's so nice to feel like a beggar in a destroyed country under rocket attacks, and you reminded me of this in such a timely manner.

I can say on behalf of the Ukrainians here we dream that you stop this whole farce called support for Ukraine. At least then we would clearly understand what we can count on in the fight against Russia. All your support is nothing more than a mockery.

And one last thing for you personally buddy - ИДИ НА ХУЙ

Don't forget you are using google translate. He didn't call you a beggar, he used a saying (прислів'я). 
And yes people here understand that Ukrainians are now in a difficult place. But we can't fully imagine it because we aren't experiencing it. At the same time we also still have our lives with the normal problems, small compared to Ukraine but that doesn't make them smaller for us.

Anyway in my opinion there is too much politics and stirup by media (крамола) going around. If three months ago it would be known that Germany would allow all tank transfer to Ukraine and deliver 14 Leo2A6 end of March, it would be good news. 

From my point of view the support is not 'mockery'. Inflation 20% is not mockery, gas price going through roof is not mockery. One of my friend company was on point of bankruptcy because of the gas price. Compared to Ukraine it is small problem. But not for him, he has everything in it and depend on it to eat with wife and two children. At that time he think same about Ukraine as your last 3 words.

Back to support, Germany is setting up a factory for production of Gepard ammunition. A vehicle they don't have in service anymore. Is it *all* you need? No, but it is something. 

Of course if you are under daily attacks, nothing can come fast enough. And yes if there would be rocket falling here also, things would go faster probably. But they aren't falling here. 

 

[Aragorn2002]

5 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

on the Leopard 2 coalition from Finland: https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/ef57d451-937c-4ddf-a5cc-c52e57e6a7b5

"Defense Minister Mikko Savola stated on Wednesday at the NATO headquarters in Brussels that the German-led Leopard coalition is not on the verge of disintegration

- At least it wasn't on the verge of disintegration, here too we have gathered and talked, yes there is a cooperation model here, Savola said at the press conference held after the NATO Defense Ministers meeting.

Welt says that only Poland responded to the number of tanks sent by Germany, although Poland has supplied Ukraine with older tank models.

According to Welt, the Dutch and Danish governments have announced that neither country intends to deliver Leopards to Ukraine

According to Savola, the news that Denmark and the Netherlands refuse to deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is false.

- Yes, it is false news, unless the matter has changed in the last 10 minutes, Savola said.

According to the Finnish Minister of Defense, all countries of the coalition are still involved in the project.

- Everyone is involved, who have been until now.

According to Welt's information, Finland is also not going to deliver a single Leopard before the NATO application is approved.

- Yes, we are involved, but I am not saying how many (tanks) we are involved with, Savola told Iltalehte on Tuesday."

Interesting article about how Germany sends Leopards and Marders to Slowakia and Greece, in order to enable these country to send their Soviet IFV's to Ukraine. Financial costs for the Germans no doubt.

https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/aktuelles/meldungen/ringtausch-ausbildung-griechischer-soldaten-schuetzenpanzer-5582846

That's what I like about Germans. They don't talk all the time, they just do whatever is possible.

Edited February 16, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

And one last thing for you personally buddy - ИДИ НА ХУЙ

Thanks, now you've really shown me. Back to the ignore list, then?

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Thanks for the kind words about beggars. it's so nice to feel like a beggar in a destroyed country under rocket attacks, and you reminded me of this in such a timely manner.

I am sorry that you apparently misunderstood this but before going into a rant why not check, it's really a common phrase.

57 minutes ago, Tux said:

While I (and I think most here) sympathise with your position here I think there may be a little bit getting ‘lost in translation’:  “Beggars can’t be choosers” is a common phrase in English which is not meant to imply any additional offence to the “beggar” in question, to the extent that the word itself can be seen as derogatory.  It’s just a pithy way of saying that people with no other choice shouldn’t be too critical of the form of assistance they get.  “Don’t bite the hand that feeds you” is another one. 

Sorry if you knew that; I don’t mean to patronise.

 

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

I can say on behalf of the Ukrainians here we dream that you stop this whole farce called support for Ukraine. At least then we would clearly understand what we can count on in the fight against Russia. All your support is nothing more than a mockery.

I did say that I think this situation is suboptimal, didn't I? And while I also said, several times, that I'd be ok with deciding not to deliver tanks because that's how democracy works, I think when you decide to do it there is no point in dawdling. At the end of the day, though, it is like I said, you don't have much of a lever here, so there is no point in ranting, except for venting frustration. If that doesn't sit well with you, that is quite understandable but insulting people who point it out to you doesn't improve your situation - rather on the contrary, I'd say.

 

Edited February 16, 2023 by Butschi

[Bufo]

 

[chuckdyke]

Correct stopping support for the Ukraine is only one election away. Thats how wars are lost, a campaign a promise another country becomes a dictatorship or a theocracy. Sad but true. 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, _Morpheus_ said:

Because `Should there be a military attack on Germany, very few German citizens would be prepared to defend their country with weapon in hand, said a new survey.`
https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/open-mind/umfrage-zeigt-deutsche-nicht-kriegsbereit-jeder-vierte-wuerde-land-verlassen-li.316316

No snide remark, I honestly don't get how this is related to what I said.

About this survey itself: Well, dying for your country has really come out of fashion here and, frankly, that's not such a bad thing, I think. And I wouldn't read too much into it. I mean, what do you expect when asking people, during peacetime, when the last war was about 80 years ago? After hammering it into each and every German after said last war that war is bad? I can imagine that the situation would be quite different if the Russians actually came knocking at our door.

[Artkin]

Obviously just a translation error. Do you all really need to dog pile on? FFS. 

[Butschi]

15 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Financial costs for the Germans no doubt.

That's what I like about Germans. They don't talk all the time, they just do whatever is possible.

I like how you have that impression. But we Germans do have a tendency to reject every idea that is no 105% solution to the problem. And discussing it until the problem went away on its own or can't be ignored any longer so that something, no matter what, has to be done.

About the financial cost. I read some time ago that the cost for Ringtausch Leopards is actually quite high because for whatever reasons Germany pays way more for them then the "usual market price" (like factor 2-3).

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

 

I can say on behalf of the Ukrainians here we dream that you stop this whole farce called support for Ukraine. At least then we would clearly understand what we can count on in the fight against Russia. All your support is nothing more than a mockery.

And one last thing for you personally buddy - ИДИ НА ХУЙ

Shame on you, mate. And all who liked your foolish remarks.

https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/laenderinformationen/ukraine-node/ukraine-solidarity/2513994

'Germany is also the largest contributor to the refinancing fund of the European Peace Facility (EPF), which so far has enabled the provision of 3.1 billion euro from across Europe; these funds are to be made available between 2022 and 2026, to support the delivery of military equipment from EU member states to the Ukrainian armed forces'.

Get it? All those so called gifts from several European countries, are mainly paid for by...yes, the Germans.

[Butschi]

6 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Obviously just a translation error. Do you all really need to dog pile on? FFS. 

True. So, before this gets out of hand: I apologize for my poor choice of words, I should have listened to my inner voice that told me that, common phrase or not, "beggar" can be misunderstood. Let's move on, shall we?

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I like how you have that impression. But we Germans do have a tendency to reject every idea that is no 105% solution to the problem. And discussing it until the problem went away on its own or can't be ignored any longer so that something, no matter what, has to be done.

About the financial cost. I read some time ago that the cost for Ringtausch Leopards is actually quite high because for whatever reasons Germany pays way more for them then the "usual market price" (like factor 2-3).

Well, all I can say is that this is the Germany everybody for centuries asked for. Weak, divided and confused. But when the dust has settled, it will be the Germans who paid most of the bill, not the Poles, not the Finns, not the Dutch, nor any other European country. For me it only confirms that a united Europe is a folly and that we don't have to expect much gratitude from Eastern Europe.

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Butschi said:

"beggar"

In the case of the Dutch their 16th Century Sea Beggars were the freedom fighters for their independence. The word has different meanings.

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

In the case of the Dutch their 16th Century Sea Beggars were the freedom fighters for their independence. The word has different meanings.

Haha, Chuckdyke, you're priceless.

Anyway, I'm out of here.

Edited February 16, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[Bulletpoint]

More balloon news. This time actually relevant for Ukraine.

Russian balloons over Kyiv in new wave of attacks

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64661145

 

[poesel]

Another one down...

I wonder if sending small scale windows to someone will be a future thing in some circles - like sending a horse head...

[_Morpheus_]

Another video from Azov - the same position (2 weeks ago we saw this video).
Daily life at the frontline

Edited February 16, 2023 by _Morpheus_

[billbindc]

9 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well given that we have not seen an actual air superiority or SEAD capability coming out of Russia, AND Ukraine AD is now significantly better in both capability and integration within the western ISR bubble, I suspect that this “air campaign” is going to largely be for show.  It will be aimed at domestic audiences to try and shore up support, the narrative will go something like “we have been holding back and trying to wage a civilized war, but NATO has forced our hands…now feel the power of our great Russia. AirPower” or some BS like that.

And then we will see what may be a brutal stand-off terror campaign.  Lot of lobbing and pitching at residential areas etc.  This will be limited in range and scope though because Russia air power can only get so close before they start getting blown out of the sky.  It is what pretty much happened last spring (https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/russian-air-war-and-ukrainian-requirements-air-defence)

I do not think Russian can achieve tactical bombing, it will remain operational level - although that is an indicator to watch for. (aside: Google NASAMS and Patriots, these things are insane)

None of this will degrade Ukrainian military power because all that is hardened and frankly I do not think the RA or Russian Air Force has enough long range systems left to do any of that.  It will really piss off the western international community and drive Ukraine deeper into entrenchment - let’s face it they are pretty much there.  We could see conventional escalation in western support, especially as the UA lines up for a spring-summer offensive.

So the cost benefit will be similar to other aspects of the Russia military's experience. The destruction of irreplaceable assets for a near term domestic political reason. 

I used to say that Putin was all tactics and no strategy but at this point that tendency has become suicidal. 

[Astrophel]

32 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

For me it only confirms that a united Europe is a folly and that we don't have to expect much gratitude from Eastern Europe.

Surely it is the West who should be grateful: Eastern Europe in the shape of Ukraine is doing the dying to fight an enemy we almost all believe needs fighting.  Poland set a great example by opening their borders for mothers and children, an example followed throughout EU.  The Baltic States seems to be giving what they have, etc.  Leave Hungary out of it perhaps but Ukraine especially will deserve our gratitude when the russians are finally defeated.  

[kevinkin]

19 minutes ago, poesel said:

Another one down...

 

Looks like Russia adheres to equal opportunity employment and deployment. I wonder if she hit anything of military value? 

https://www.newsweek.com/marina-yankina-russian-defense-official-window-death-1781713

[Ales Dvorak]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm getting the feeling that as long as Germany was blocking deliveries, it was a political free lunch for various countries to declare that they'd love to send a lot of tanks, if only old grumpy Germany wouldn't be so stubborn. Now that Germany allows it, those countries are free to deliver, and then suddenly there are many concerns...

Did you know Germany pressed hard on Slovenia to send 28 pcs M55S and 35 pcs BVP M80A ( that was all we got ) in Ukraine?  Germany was blocking deliveries ... maybe their own delivery , not for other ( smaller ) countries.

 

Edited February 16, 2023 by Ales Dvorak

[Bufo]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Haha, Chuckdyke, you're priceless.

Anyway, I'm out of here.

Why, if we had a new DLC for BS called "Dutch freedom beggars" I would actually buy it.

[keas66]

28 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

Surely it is the West who should be grateful: Eastern Europe in the shape of Ukraine is doing the dying to fight an enemy we almost all believe needs fighting.  Poland set a great example by opening their borders for mothers and children, an example followed throughout EU.  The Baltic States seems to be giving what they have, etc.  Leave Hungary out of it perhaps but Ukraine especially will deserve our gratitude when the russians are finally defeated.  

Dear me - all this squabbling between members from different European Counties really  highlights the  potentially fragmented  nature of the European Structure . You guys sound like you really are only a few steps away from splitting asunder if push came to shove . So much for European Unity ? . I hope at the Political level  at least there is a little more consensus .